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At least 289 records · Page 16

Scalable computations for nonstationary Gaussian processes

Nonstationary Gaussian process models can capture complex spatially varying dependence structures in spatial datasets. However, the large number of observations in modern datasets makes fitting such models computationally intractable with conventional dense linear algebra. In addition, derivative-free or even first-order optimization methods can be very slow to converge when estimating many spatially varying parameters. In this paper, we present a computational framework which couples an algebraic block diagonal plus low-rank covariance matrix approximation with stochastic trace estimation to facilitate the efficient use of second-order solvers for maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian process models with many parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods by simultaneously fitting 192 parameters in the popular nonstationary model of Paciorek and Schervish using 107,600 sea surface temperature anomaly measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scale Dependence of Statistics of Spatially Averaged Rain Rate Seen in TOGA COARE Comparison with Predictions from a Stochastic Model

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they in general depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. As a part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite rain averages, a space-time model of rainfall statistics was developed to describe the statistics of gridded rain observed in GATE. The model allows one to compute the second moment statistics of space- and time-averaged rain rate which can be fitted to satellite or rain gauge data to determine the four model parameters appearing in the precipitation spectrum - an overall strength parameter, a characteristic length separating the long and short wavelength regimes and a characteristic relaxation time for decay of the autocorrelation of the instantaneous local rain rate and a certain 'fractal' power law exponent. For area-averaged instantaneous rain rate, this exponent governs the power law dependence of these statistics on the averaging length scale $L$ predicted by the model in the limit of small $L$. In particular, the variance of rain rate averaged over an $L \times L$ area exhibits a power law singularity as $L \rightarrow 0$. In the present work the model is used to investigate how the statistics of area-averaged rain rate over the tropical Western Pacific measured with ship borne radar during TOGA COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment) and gridded on a 2 km grid depends on the size of the spatial averaging scale. Good agreement is found between the data and predictions from the model over a wide range of averaging length scales.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

Instrument for spatially resolved, temperature-dependent electrochemical impedance spectroscopy of thin films under locally controlled atmosphere

We demonstrate an instrument for spatially resolved measurements (mapping) of electrochemical impedance under various temperatures and gas environments. Automated measurements are controlled by a custom LabVIEW program, which manages probe motion, sample motion, temperature ramps, and potentiostat functions. Sample and probe positioning is provided by stepper motors. Dry or hydrated atmospheres (air or nitrogen) are available. The configurable heater reaches temperatures up to 500 °C, although the temperature at the sample surface is moderated by the gas flow rate. The local gas environment is controlled by directing flow toward the sample via a glass enclosure that surrounds the gold wire probe. Software and hardware selection and design are discussed. Reproducibility and accuracy are quantified on a Ba(Zr,Y)O 3-δ proton-conducting electrolyte thin film synthesized by pulsed laser deposition. The mapping feature of the instrument is demonstrated on a compositionally graded array of electrocatalytically active Ba(Co,Fe,Zr,Y)O 3-δ thin film microelectrodes. The resulting data indicate that this method proficiently maps property trends in these materials, thus demonstrating the reliability and usefulness of this method for investigating electrochemically active thin films.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Medium-range atomic correlation in simple liquids. II. Theory of temperature dependence

The spatial atomic correlations in liquids and glasses extend often significantly beyond the nearest neighbors. Such correlations, called the medium-range order (MRO), affect many physical properties, but their nature is not well understood. In this article the variation of the MRO with temperature is calculated based upon the concept of the atomic-level pressure, focusing on simple liquids, such as metallic liquids. It is shown that the structural coherence length that characterizes MRO follows the Curie-Weiss law with a negative Curie temperature as observed by experiment and simulation. It is also shown that the glass transition is induced by freezing of the MRO, rather than the freezing of the nearest-neighbor shell. The implications of these results are discussed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications

Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wave resource spatial and temporal variability dependence on WEC size

As the wave energy sector grows and looks to the Blue Economy for commercialization opportunities, there is a distinct and pressing need to clearly understand and quantify the coupled impacts of wave energy converter (WEC) size and wave resource characteristics on the annual energy production, spatial variability and temporal variability. Utilizing generic frequency domain representations of the Oscilla Power Triton WEC and spectral wave conditions at PacWave (Oregon), Los Angeles (California) and WETS (Hawaii), a series of interesting results emerge. Firstly, the ‘optimal’ WEC size, from an energy standpoint, is fundamentally dependent on the frequency distribution of the incoming wave variance density spectrum. Secondly, and from a seasonality perspective, the seasonal WEC energy generation doesn’t necessarily follow the seasonal distribution of gross wave power. Finally, from an hourly power variability perspective, a reduction in WEC size generally decreases variability. However, for each of the locations investigated, there appears to be a WEC size threshold; a threshold where further reducing WEC size results in increased power variability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Wave Resource Spatial and Temporal Variability Dependence on WEC Size

As the wave energy sector grows and looks to the Blue Economy for commercialization opportunities, there is a distinct and pressing need to clearly understand and quantify the coupled impacts of wave energy converter (WEC) size and wave resource characteristics on the annual energy production, spatial variability and temporal variability. Utilizing generic frequency domain representations of the Oscilla Power Triton WEC and spectral wave conditions at PacWave (Oregon), Los Angeles (California) and WETS (Hawaii), a series of interesting results emerge. Firstly, the 'optimal' WEC size, from an energy standpoint, is fundamentally dependent on the frequency distribution of the incoming wave variance density spectrum. Secondly, and from a seasonality perspective, the seasonal WEC energy generation doesn't necessarily follow the seasonal distribution of gross wave power. Finally, from an hourly power variability perspective, a reduction in WEC size generally decreases variability. However, for each of the locations investigated, there appears to be a WEC size threshold; a threshold where further reducing WEC size results in increased power variability.

blue economy↗

P/Halley - Effects of time-dependent production rates on spatial emission profiles

Spatial profiles of C2, CN, NH2, and O(D-1) in Comet P/Halley taken on 1986 March 1.54 and 2.55 and April 14.32 and 15.30 clearly show the effect of the 7 day periodic variation seen in photometric observations. With a time-dependent model based upon the light curve and employing standard scale lengths for each species reduced to the appropriate heliocentric distance, we are able to reproduce the highly variable profiles for all species. We computed the phase lag and amplitude correction between the actual gas production at the nucleus and the temporal/spatial filter imposed by the finite aperture photometry. For early March we find a phase lag and amplitude correction of 12 hr and -9 percent, respectively, whereas in mid-April the values are 6 hr and -27 percent. The same phase lag and amplitude correction work equally well for all four species despite their wide variation in photochemical lifetimes for production and decay. The same model integrated over circular apertures is able to reproduce the entire published March and April photometric light curves for C2. Our results require the use of the 7.60 day period for the March data as opposed to the 7.37 day period that is relevant for the April data, in agreement with the published analysis of the photometric data. Our results will help to reconcile the placement of active areas on the surface of Halley's comet with various remote observations and spacecraft images of the nucleus.

Combi, Michael R.↗

The spatial resolving power of earth resources satellites: A review

The significance of spatial resolving power on the utility of current and future Earth resources satellites is critically discussed and the relative merits of different approaches in defining and estimating spatial resolution are outlined. It is shown that choice of a particular measure of spatial resolution depends strongly on the particular needs of the user. Several experiments have simulated the capabilities of future satellite systems by degradation of aircraft images. Surprisingly, many of these indicated that improvements in resolution may lead to a reduction in the classification accuracy of land cover types using computer assisted methods. However, where the frequency of boundary pixels is high, the converse relationship is found. Use of imagery dependent upon visual interpretation is likely to benefit more consistently from higher resolutions. Extraction of information from images will depend upon several other factors apart from spatial resolving power: these include characteristics of the terrain being sensed, the image processing methods that are applied as well as certain sensor characteristics.

Townshend, J. R. G.↗

Dependence of the average spatial and energy characteristics of the hadron-lepton cascade on the strong interaction parameters at superhigh energies

A method for calculating the average spatial and energy characteristics of hadron-lepton cascades in the atmosphere is described. The results of calculations for various strong interaction models of primary protons and nuclei are presented. The sensitivity of the experimentally observed extensive air showers (EAS) characteristics to variations of the elementary act parameters is analyzed.

Boyadjian, N. G.↗

Spatial variation in soil microbial processes as a result of woody encroachment depends on shrub size in tallgrass prairie

Aims: As woody plants encroach into grassland ecosystems, we expect that altered plant-soil interactions will lead to changes in the microbial processes that affect carbon storage and nutrient cycling. Specifically, this research aimed to address how (1) soil chemistry, (2) microbial nutrient demand, and (3) the rate and source of potential soil C mineralization vary spatially under individual woody shrubs of varying size within a mesic grassland. Methods: Here, we collected soil samples from the center, the midpoint between the center and edge, the edge, and the shrub-grass ecotone of multiple Cornus drummondii shrubs across a shrub-size gradient in infrequently burned tallgrass prairie. Results: We found total soil carbon and total soil nitrogen increased with shrub size in every location but the edge. Microbial demand for nitrogen also increased as shrubs increased in size. Across all shrub sizes and sampling locations, potential soil carbon mineralization rates were higher when microbes broke down proportionally more shrub-derived (C 3 ) organic matter than grass-derived (C 4 ) organic matter. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the spatio-temporal context of woody encroachment is critical for understanding its impact on belowground microbial processes. In this ecosystem, a longer period of occupancy by woody plants increases potentially mineralizable carbon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Analysis of the Spatial Variations in the Relationship Between Built Environment and Severe Crashes

Traffic crashes significantly contribute to global fatalities, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need to evaluate the relationship between urban environments and traffic safety. This study extends former spatial modeling frameworks by drawing paths between global models, including spatial lag (SLM), and spatial error (SEM), and local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR), multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression with spatially lagged dependent variable (MGWRL). Utilizing the proposed framework, this study analyzes severe traffic crashes in relation to urban built environments using various spatial regression models within Leon County, Florida. According to the results, SLM outperforms OLS, SEM, and GWR models. Local models with lagged dependent variables outperform both the global and generic versions of the local models in all performance measures, whereas MGWR and MGWRL outperform GWR and GWRL. Local models performed better than global models, showing spatial non-stationarity; so, the relationship between the dependent and independent variables varies over space. The better performance of models with lagged dependent variables signifies that the spatial distribution of severe crashes is correlated. Finally, the better performance of multi-scale local models than classical local models indicates varying influences of independent variables with different bandwidths. According to the MGWRL model, census block groups close to the urban area with higher population, higher education level, and lower car ownership rates have lower crash rates. On the contrary, motor vehicle percentage for commuting is found to have a negative association with severe crash rate, which suggests the locality of the mentioned associations.

Alisan, Onur (ORCID:0000000193113984)↗

Measurable radiation levels around individuals externally contaminated by nuclear fallout

During the early response to large-scale radioactive contamination events, people who are potentially affected need to be screened for radioactive contamination and public health staff need to triage individuals who may need immediate decontamination. This is typically done by screening individuals for external contamination using ionising radiation detection equipment. In this study, spatially and temporally dependent isotopic compositions from a simulated nuclear detonation and Monte Carlo methods were used to relate contamination activity levels to the measurable radiation levels at select distances away from an individual with whole-body contamination. Radionuclide-specific air kerma rate coefficients and Geiger–Mueller instrument response coefficients at five select distances from contaminated individuals are presented for 662 radionuclides. Temporally and spatially dependent incident-specific coefficients are presented for a hypothetical surface detonation of a 235 U-fueled device.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Groundwater monitoring↗

Soil microbiome predictability increases with spatial and taxonomic scale

Soil microorganisms shape ecosystem function, yet it remains an open question whether we can predict the composition of the soil microbiome in places before observing it. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the predictability of microbial life exhibits taxonomic- and spatial-scale dependence, as it does for macrobiological communities. Here, we leverage multiple large-scale soil microbiome surveys to develop predictive models of bacterial and fungal community composition in soil, then test these models against independent soil microbial community surveys from across the continental United States. We find remark- able scale dependence in community predictability. The predictability of bacterial and fungal communities increases with the spatial scale of observation, and fungal predictability increases with taxonomic scale. These patterns suggest that there is an increasing importance of deterministic versus stochastic processes with scale, consistent with findings in plant and animal communities, suggesting a general scaling relationship across biology. Biogeochemical functional groups and high-level taxonomic groups of microorganisms were equally predictable, indicating that traits and taxonomy are both powerful lenses for understanding soil communities. Here, by focusing on out-of-sample prediction, these findings suggest an emerging generality in our understanding of the soil microbiome, and that this understanding is fundamentally scale dependent

Biogeography↗

Effects of Resolution and Spectral Nudging in Simulation the Effects of Wintertime Atmospheric River Landfalls in the Western US

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the climate of the US Pacific coast region as they are frequently related with heavy precipitation and flash flooding events. Thus, the capability of climate models to accurately simulate AR landfalls and their key hydrologic effects is an important practical concern for WUS, from flood forecasting to future water resources projections. In order to examine the effects of model configuration, including the resolution and spectral nudging, in simulating the climatology of key weather events in the conterminous US, a NASA team has performed a hindcast experiment using the GEOS5 global and the NU-WRF regional models for Nov 1999 - Oct 2010. This study examines the skill of these hindcasts, with different models and their configurations, in simulating key footprints of landfalling ARs in the WUS region. Using an AR-landfall chronology based on the vertically-integrated water vapor flux calculated from the MERRA2 reanalysis, we have analyzed the observed and simulated precipitation and temperature anomalies associated with wintertime AR landfalls along the US Pacific coast. Model skill is measured using metrics including regional means, a skill score based on correlations and mean-square errors, and Taylor diagrams in four WUS Bukovsky regions. Results show that the AR-related anomalies of precipitation is more reliable than of surface temperatures. Model skill also varies according to regions. The AR temperature anomalies are well simulated in most of the WUS region except PNW. For precipitation, simulations with finer spatial resolution tend to generate larger spatial variability and agree better with the PRISM data in most regions. Such a resolution dependence of spatial variability is not found for temperatures; e.g., the MERRA2 reanalysis often outperforms, with similar spatial variability and higher pattern correlations with the PRISM data, finer-resolution NU-WRF runs in simulating temperature variations within subregions. Results from this study will be summarized to assist future (regional) climate experiments for climate change impact assessments and developing adaptationmitigation strategies, the key elements of the National Climate Assessment.

Simulation↗