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At least 289 records · Page 16

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

The Association of Radiation Exposure with Stable Chromosome Aberrations in Atomic Bomb Survivors Based on DS02R1 Dosimetry and FISH Methods

The frequency of stable chromosome aberrations (sCA) in lymphocytes is a recognized radiation biological dosimeter. Its analysis can provide insights into factors that affect individual susceptibility as well as into the adequacy of radiation dose estimates used in studies of atomic bomb survivors. We analyzed the relationship between atomic bomb radiation exposure using the most recent DS02R1 dose estimates and the frequency of sCA as determined by FISH in 1,868 atomic bomb survivors. We investigated factors that may affect the background sCA rate and the shape and magnitude of the dose response. As in previous analyses of sCA in atomic bomb survivors that were based on Giemsa staining methods and used older DS86 dose estimates, the relationship between radiation dose and sCA rate was significant (P < 0.0001) with a linear-quadratic relationship at lower doses that did not persist at higher doses. As before, age at the time of the bombing and type of radiation shielding were significant dose-effect modifiers (P < 0.0001), but in contrast the difference in dose response by city was not so pronounced (P = 0.026) with a city effect not evident at doses below 1.25Gy. Background sCA rate increased with age at the time of examination (P < 0.0001), but neither sex, city, nor smoking was significantly associated with background rate. Based on FISH methods and recent dosimetry, the relationship between radiation dose and sCA frequency is largely consistent with previous findings, although the lesser importance of city as an effect modifier may reflect better dosimetry as well as more reproducible scoring of sCA. The persisting difference in sCA dose response by shielding category points to remaining problems with the accuracy or precision of radiation dose estimates in some A-bomb survivors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A Million Person Study Innovation: Evaluating Cognitive Impairment and other Morbidity Outcomes from Chronic Radiation Exposure Through Linkages with the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services Assessment and Claims Data

Here, the study of One Million U.S. Radiation Workers and Veterans, the Million Person Study (MPS), examines the health consequences, both cancer and non-cancer, of exposure to ionizing radiation received gradually over time. Recently the MPS has focused on mortality patterns from neurological and behavioral conditions, e.g., Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, dementia, and motor neuron disease such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. A fuller picture of radiation-related late effects comes from studying both mortality and the occurrence (incidence) of conditions not leading to death. Accordingly, the MPS is identifying neurocognitive diagnoses from fee-for-service insurance claims from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), among Medicare beneficiaries beginning in 1999 (the earliest date claims data are available). Linkages to date have identified ∼540,000 workers with available health information. Such linkages provide individual information on important co-factor and confounding variables such as smoking, alcohol consumption, blood pressure, obesity, diabetes and many other health and demographic characteristics. The total person-level set of time-dependent variables, outcomes, organ-specific dose measures, co-factors, and demographics will be massive and much too large to be evaluated with standard software. Thus, development of specialized open-source software designed for large datasets (Colossus) is nearly complete. The wealth of information available from CMS claims data, coupled with individual dose reconstructions, will thus greatly enhance the quality and precision of health evaluations for this new field of low-dose radiation and neurocognitive effects.

Dauer, Lawrence T.↗

Accelerated epigenetic aging as a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and decreased lung function in two prospective cohort studies

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a frequent diagnosis in older individuals and contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Given the link between lung disease and aging, we need to understand how molecular indicators of aging relate to lung function and disease. Using data from the population-based KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) surveys, we associated baseline epigenetic (DNA methylation) age acceleration with incident COPD and lung function. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, height, weight, and baseline lung disease as appropriate. Associations were replicated in the Normative Aging Study. Of 770 KORA participants, 131 developed incident COPD over 7 years. Baseline accelerated epigenetic aging was significantly associated with incident COPD. The change in age acceleration (follow-up – baseline) was more strongly associated with COPD than baseline aging alone. The association between the change in age acceleration between baseline and follow-up and incident COPD replicated in the Normative Aging Study. Associations with spirometric lung function parameters were weaker than those with COPD, but a meta-analysis of both cohorts provide suggestive evidence of associations. Accelerated epigenetic aging, both baseline measures and changes over time, may be a risk factor for COPD and reduced lung function.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Instrument Cloud Condensation Nuclei Spectrum Product (Final Technical Report)

A wealth of observational data exists on the characteristics of atmospheric particulate matter, over multiple years, at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site. This site is located in a region of the country that frequently experiences weather extremes, and that is removed from many local sources of pollution but is affected by transported smoke, dust, and urban emissions. The relationships between particulate matter, cloud formation and evolution, and precipitation are therefore of strong interest, and are being explored via modeling on a variety of scales. These models require as input detailed information on the characteristics of particles capable of serving as the nuclei for cloud formation. Sufficient data exist to be able to put together a picture of the nature of the total aerosol and the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) subset, and their variability, through merged data products. This study was aimed at exploiting the multiple measurement types at SGP to develop the first such multi-year estimates. Further, the resulting data were analyzed to understand temporal patterns ranging from hourly to seasonal, thereby gaining insights into the particle sources affecting the atmosphere in this region. DOE-funded datasets that were analyzed in this study include total particle number concentrations, submicron aerosol scattering coefficients, dry aerosol size distributions, and more recently, time-resolved submicron aerosol chemical composition. Data are also available for the number concentrations of particles that are activated in a cloud condensation nucleus instrument at a series of setpoint supersaturations, providing direct observations of the number concentrations of “CCN”. This variable is the quantity that is generally desired for inclusion in numerical models that seek to represent and predict the impacts of varying aerosol characteristics on the formation and microphysical properties of clouds. One limitation of the use of direct CCN observations is that they are not available for supersaturations larger than about 1%, which is insufficient for deep convection and may be insufficient even for shallow convection, depending on the nature of the available CCN and the dynamics of the cloud. We developed a data-based approach to representing the full aerosol size spectrum with size-dependent hygroscopicity, and used this to extrapolate CCN spectra beyond the limited measurements. Five years of SGP aerosol data (2009 -2013) were analyzed. As a side product of our work, we identified and communicated several previously-unflagged data quality issues. The resulting merged aerosol distributions, along with fits for seasonal averages, were published and submitted to the ARM archive as a special value-added product (VAP; submitted as a PI product). CCN spectra were computed for the same data period and will similarly be published and submitted to the archive for use by the community. We also note that our methodologies and findings have been discussed at several Joint ARM User Facility/Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Principal Investigators Meetings and that recent ARM/ASR aerosol data reporting strategies have included similar ideas for data merging, indicating that this work has had a lasting impact on ARM aerosol data acquisition and reporting. The proposed work advances the science of the interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, with direct application to improve representation of such interactions for clouds in regional and global climate models. The archived data will continue to serve research studies in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A novel approach to characterize the full spectrum and radiative properties of aerosols

Organic aerosols play a significant role in the absorption and radiative budget of the atmosphere, but current modeling approaches do not adequately capture the photo-chemical and oxidative bleaching that occurs during their lifetimes. Most climate models inaccurately assume constant optical properties of these particles, therefore leading to errors in their predictions. In this study we present an approach to better parameterize the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols, including brown carbon (BrC). Using thin-film spectrometry, the full spectrum of reflectivity and emissivity was used to calculate the complex refractive index for multiple species of organic aerosols. This is in contrast to previous techniques which only probe single wavelengths. Since BrC is a complex molecular mixture, we initially focused on single species absorption using four molecular surrogates. Dye-doped polyacrylic-acid thin-films were prepared on glass slides and compared to an aerosolized collection method. Verification of the collection method will open the door to characterizing the complex refractive index of smoke and ambient aerosol.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Soot Predictions with a Laminar Flamelet Combustion Model in SIERRA/Fuego on a Coflow Scenario

This report describes an assessment of flamelet based soot models in a laminar ethylene coflow flame with a good selection of measurements suitable for model validation. Overall flow field and temperature predictions were in good agreement with available measurements. Soot profiles were in good agreement within the flame except for near the centerline where imperfections with the acetylene-based soot-production model are expected to be greatest. The model was challenged to predict the transition between non-sooting and sooting conditions with non-negligible soot emissions predicted even down to small flow rates or flame sizes. This suggests some possible deficiency in the soot oxidation models that might alter the amount of smoke emissions from flames, though this study cannot quantify the magnitude of the effect for large fires.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Health Management Clinic Report FY18

The Health Management Clinic (HMC) is a worksite specialty clinic designed to provide an exceptional level of health care for Sandia employees with diabetes, cholesterol and blood pressure disorders, and for those employees that need help with smoking cessation, depression, anxiety, sleep disorders, or weight management. With a unified commitment to the best care practices available, the HMC is Sandia’s interface to workplace healthcare and health plan services. The HMC provides Sandia employees access to onsite screenings, health care exams, preventative health education, disease management education, care management, periodic laboratory testing, immunizations, podiatry services, and behavioral, fitness, and nutrition counseling/education. Our multidisciplinary team of health professionals consists of physicians, nurses, medical assistants, certified diabetes educators, dietitians, health educators, and exercise specialists. Services offered by the Health Management clinic have been designed to reduce further complications from disease states and promote healthy behavior changes for Sandia employees.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Environmentally Adaptive, Multiband Software-Defined-Radar for Monitoring of Item of Interest in a Dynamically Cluttered Room

High-resolution multi-frequency radars when networked together, form a robust and seamless monitoring system for high-valued items. The multi-look-direction radar network investigated by LLNL and DSI, operates at 77 GHz and 5.8GHz, and is capable of detection at centimeter resolution movement of objects of interest. This dual frequency radar (unlike optical methods) can operate under various environments with conditions such a smoke, dust, and other natural or manmade obscurations. In addition, the multiband network radar is based on low-cost FCC approved EM specifications and can be scaled with the dimensions of the room and objects under consideration by user-defined inputs. Furthermore, the underlying radar signal processing based on software-defined radar engine is adaptive to its operational environment, where operators can input the size of the facility and object of interest and the distance between the object and radar. Finally, this multi-frequency radar employs a host of change detection and machine learning algorithms to reach performance levels in terms of high probability of detection and low false alarm rates while the monitoring state of the object can be reported remotely.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Final Technical Report: Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves, and Energy Prices

This study quantifies the potential impacts of wildfires on the California grid, specifically the impacts under three different wildfire scenarios: a "no wildfire" scenario and two wildfire-specific scenarios, "2020 wildfire" and "enhanced wildfire" (with both wildfire scenarios assuming spatial distribution of the wildfire location the same as the 2020 fires). The study combines each scenario with two solar energy infrastructures: one corresponding to the current solar installation and the other to future (midcentury) solar installation. The analysis is conducted using state-of-the-science modeling tools: primarily WRF-Chem for atmospheric modeling with chemistry to account for impacts of wildfires on solar radiation and PLEXOS for electricity market simulations. The analysis suggests that wildfires can significantly attenuate solar radiation at both short downwind distances as well as far from the emissions sources. Although the study is limited in scope, and the analysis studies only a few of the many factors that can affect photovoltaic generation and electricity markets, it indicates that wildfire smoke is an important factor that needs to be carefully considered and analyzed in planning the future grid.

electricity market↗

Boundary Layer Height Variation over the Savannah River Site during a Heat Wave

With the number of heat waves expect to increase in both in their severity and frequency in the coming years, an insight into their impact on planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights is essential for one development of future emergency and safety plans. Using High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) atmospheric model output, an analysis is done on the effects a heat wave has on PBL heights and temperature inversions across the Savannah River Site (SRS). This study showed that due to its adjacency to anthropogenic land use, SRS experiences a non-negligible gradient in its PBL height, with higher heights to the northwest. The singular location PBL heigh measurement and forecasts for SRS do not account for this gradient, which has potential implications on pollutant and smoke dispersion onsite. During a heat wave this gradient is present but PBL heights are less impacted than surrounding developed areas, possibly attributable to the woody wetlands that surround the Savannah River's banks. Additionally, the heat wave appears to strongly enhance the nocturnal temperature inversions that the site and surrounding areas experience. This is possibly due to increased stability from higher pressure conditions, which are often associated with heat waves. This influence on nocturnal inversions, however, is limited to their intensity, leaving their timing relatively unaltered. The impact a heat wave has on PBL heights and temperature inversions across SRS is seen to be more dependent on adjacent land use and features rather than the unique land use types onsite.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the link between aerosol mixing state, structure and composition and their optical properties: Ascension Island as a testbed for the South‐East Atlantic aerosol regimes

Forest and savanna fires are a major source of pollution over the globe. Such fire events emit to the atmosphere a considerable amount of “fluffy” fractal black looking particles that are often referred to as black carbon (BC) or soot aerosols. In fact, BC particles (aerosols) emitted from savanna and agricultural fires over the African continent play an important role in the region’s and the global climate. These fires occur each year between July and October, which is referred to as the biomass burning (BB) season and are considered among the globe's largest man-made emission sources of BC particles. However, during these fire events, not only BC particles are emitted, but also other types of particles and gases that can interact with each other to create new particles, generating a slew of particles often generally referred to as BB aerosols. Although the majority of the fire emissions occur inland in the sub-Saharan part of Africa, their effect reaches far beyond the continent due to the prevailing easterly winds, which transport those aerosols over the South-East Atlantic (SEA) ocean, off the west-coast of Africa. The reason why these particles are so important to the regional and global climate is that they absorb sunlight radiation, which overall warms the climate. However, the magnitude of this warming effect is highly uncertain and depends upon a multitude of aspects. Our overarching goal for this project was to better understand the changes in the aerosol properties as they transport from fire sources downstream toward the ocean and how this can eventually affect the earth's radiative budget in terms of warming or cooling. Following the above, our work here was focused on the investigation of the African BB aerosol plumes mixing state (mixing of BB aerosols and other aerosol types), composition and size distribution as they transport from the African continent towards the SEA ocean, and their link with some of the commonly measurable bulk optical properties such as mass absorption coefficient (MAC) and single scattering albedo (SSA). We utilized three field missions that were conducted over the SEA ocean between 2016 and 2018. Specifically, we used (1) ground-based measurements from the DOE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1), which was deployed at Ascension Island (ASI) for the LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) campaign between June 2016 and October 2017, (2) airborne measurements from the UK CLARIFY (Clouds and Aerosol Radiative impacts and Forcing) campaign during Aug-Sep-2017, and (3) airborne measurements from the ORACLES (Observations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions) campaign during Aug-2017, and Sep-Oct-2018. The three campaigns cover a relatively large region, from the western African coast on the east towards Ascension Island in the middle of the SEA to the west. We used the data gathered by these campaigns to find how BB properties and composition change from near emission sources (the ORACLES campaign flights) downstream (the CLARIFY flights and the ground based LASIC measurements). We used particle trajectory following methodologies to connect the measurements from the different campaigns, which allowed us to follow a certain aerosol plume (airmass) from near-source towards Ascension Island. We found out that atmospheric aging processes governed by the UV light from the sun (photochemistry) and cloud processes (aqueous chemistry) govern the changes seen in the particle composition during the transport were more dominant in dictating aerosol composition than specific emission composition or source types. We assessed how aerosol optical properties change during the BB season and what are the main drivers of this change. We found that the enhanced ratio of BC to CO is well correlated with single scattering albedo (SSA) and mass absorption coefficient (MACBC), providing a simple way to estimate the aerosol optical characteristics in the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean. From the analysis of the location of BB, the primary source fuel, the water content in the fuel, combined with the mean cloud cover and precipitation in the transport areas of the BB plume, we conclude that the increase in BC/CO from June to August is likely to be caused by burning becoming more flaming (hot fires), and the decrease in BC/CO in September and October may be caused by smoldering (colder) fires. We found that aerosol hygroscopicity increases with decreasing altitude below 2km, and that enhanced BB hygroscopicity at lower altitudes is mainly due to a lower organic aerosol (OA) fraction, increased sulfate fraction, and greater hygroscopicity parameter of OA at lower altitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shooter Alarm System Final Report FY23

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is developing a multiphysics sensor package for automatic live arms fire detection for use in schools, houses of worship, hospi tals, etc. The goal is to have a package the size of a common smoke or CO2 detector with a price point of $50 or less which may be deployed throughout the aforementioned facilities. The commercial device will detect live gun fire with low probability of false alarm and auto matically alert first responders. A prototype board with four accelerometers, two infrared (IR) and two microphones has been developed and deployed at two experiments at LLNL’s Small Firearms Training Facility (SFTF). The device successfully and consistently measured signals on the accelerometer and acoustic channels. IR responses were measured depending upon the environment and sound source.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CEM MARS 6 Microwave Incident

A fire occurred in a CEM MARS 6 analytical microwave during microwave-assisted, acid digestion of a soil sample in a Research and Development (R&D) laboratory. The soil sample had been pretreated at 550°C for approximately 4 hours in a furnace prior to digesting in the microwave. Less than 1-gram aliquots of the pretreated soil sample were placed into separate microwave reaction vessels along with an acid mixture used for digestion. The microwave was used to facilitate digestion of the samples. Microwave reaction vessels were loaded with acid and soil samples, sealed in cassettes, and the cassettes placed onto a microwave carousel. A temperature probe that senses the reaction temperature during the run was inserted into the Reference Cell thermowell. The contents of the Reference Cell were identical to the contents of the other reaction cells. The researcher initiated the run and then left the laboratory to perform other work. Upon returning to check the digestion run, flames and smoke were observed originating from the microwave. The researcher exited the lab, immediate emergency actions were taken, and the local fire department responded and extinguished the fire. No personnel were injured, and no facility structural damage occurred. The affected microwave is a total loss. The fire investigation revealed the most credible cause of the fire is an incompatible temperature probe that did not accurately measure temperature of the liquid phase of the Reference sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mapping Dark Matter on Small Scales with the Cosmic Microwave Background (Final Report)

Sehgal was funded by DOE Grant DE-SC0020441 over the period from 11/1/2019 - 04/30/2024 (no remaining funds are anticipated). Most recently, Sehgal and her group completed a publication forecasting cosmological parameter constraints for a CMB-HD survey, in addition to SO and CMB-S4 (1). One focus of this work was determining the improvement in parameter constraints when removing the gravitational lensing effect from the primordial CMB (a process called delensing). This work also explored the bias to parameters from neglecting baryonic effects, and ways to mitigate that. In addition, this work highlighted that a CMB-HD N eff measurement could tightly constrain the QCD axion in a modelindependent way (see left panel of Figure 1). Sehgal also developed a novel way to probe inflation via CMB experiments by measuring inflationary magnetic fields (IMFs) (2). IMFs are thought to seed the large magnetic fields we observe in galaxies today, and can be measured by looking for anisotropic rotation of the CMB polarization vectors across the sky (an effect called cosmic birefringence). The cosmic birefringence from IMFs has a unique frequency dependence, allowing it to be separated from other sources of cosmic birefringence. In (2), Sehgal and her postdoc also presented a novel way to remove foreground contamination from Galactic magnetic fields using measurements of the polarization of nearby radio sources. The removal of this Galactic contamination is necessary when measuring IMFs at the level of 0.1 nG; IMFs with a strength of at least 0.1 nG are needed to seed the magnetic fields in galaxies we observe today. Since only inflation can generate such a strong magnetic field, measuring such a signal would be a “smoking gun” signature that inflation occurred. Sehgal showed in (2) that CMB-HD could detect such IMFs with at least 3σ significance (see right panel of Figure 1).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reducing Exposures to Airborne Particles Through Improved Filtration: A High-Level Modeling Analysis

Indoor airborne particulates are well-known health hazards and filtration is one common method of reducing exposures. Based on our previously developed Regional Shelter Analysis methodology and parameters that characterize the existing US building stock, we perform a high-level assessment of the potential benefits of upgrading existing filters in furnace and in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems using off-the-shelf filters. We use three metrics to assess the improvement: Building Transmission Factor (a measure of protection against outdoor airborne particles), Indoor Normalized Time and Space Integrated Air Concentration (a measure of indoor exposure to indoor-origin airborne particles), and Building Exit Fraction (fraction of indoor airborne particles that are released to the outdoor atmosphere). We also discuss the potential reduction in regional exposures due to particles exiting the building and exposing downwind building occupants. Our modeling indicates that while buildings provide their occupants passive protection against airborne particulate hazards, including but not limited to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and wildfire smoke; improving particle filtration efficiency may further improve this protection. The degree of improvement varies with particle size and building type. Of the building types studied, apartments are predicted to benefit most, with greater than a factor of 2 improvement (≥50% reduction in exposures) for 1 µm particle exposures when using MERV 7 to 12 rated filters. Non-residential buildings were notably less responsive to improved filtration but had the highest Building Exit Fractions with 30% to 40% of indoor airborne particles released to the outdoor atmosphere (apartment buildings only released 6% to 9%). Improvements predicted for single family homes were intermediate between apartments and non-residential buildings. Improvements in the Regional Exposure metric are larger, ranging from a factor of 2.5x to 10x for residences (when using MERV 7 to 12 rated filters) and up to 25x for large apartments with MERV 14 or 15 rated filters. The results of our modeling analysis are broadly consistent with the limited experimental data and modeling results available in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗