Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “SST”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

Role of Equatorial Cold Tongue in Central Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias in the NCAR CESM1.2

Warm SST bias underlying the spurious southern ITCZ has long been recognized as one of the main causes for double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs in the central Pacific. This study demonstrates that the NCAR CESM1.2 can still simulate significant double-ITCZ bias even with cold SST bias in the southern ITCZ region, indicating that warm SST bias is not a necessary condition for double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. Further analyses suggest that the equatorial cold tongue (ECT) biases play important roles in the formation of double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. The severe cold SST biases in the ECT region in the central Pacific may enhance the SST gradient between the ECT and southern ITCZ region, strengthening the lower troposphere dynamical convergence and hence convection in the southern ITCZ region. The formation mechanism of excessive ECT bias is further investigated. It is shown that the cold SST biases in the ECT region can be largely attributed to the anomalous cooling tendency produced by the upper ocean zonal advection due to overly strong zonal currents. In the ECT region, the westward ocean surface zonal current is driven by the equatorial easterly surface winds. In this work, it is shown that convection bias simulated by the atmospheric model in the equatorial Amazon region may lead to easterly wind bias in the downwind side (west) of convection region. Finally, the mean Walker circulation transports these easterly wind momentum anomalies downward and westward to the surface, resulting in the overly strong surface easterly wind in the central equatorial Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Estimation of sea surface temperature from remote sensing in the 11to 13-micron window region

The Nimbus 3 and 4 Iris spectral data in the 11- to 13-micron water vapor window region are analyzed to determine the sea surface temperature (SST). The high spectral resolution data of Iris are averaged over approximately 1-micron-wide intervals to simulate channels of a radiometer to measure the SST. In the present exploratory study, three such channels in the 775- to 960-per cm (12.9-10.5 micron) region are utilized to measure the SST over cloud-free oceans. However, two of these channels are sufficient in routine SST determination. The differential absorption properties of water vapor in the two channels make it possible to determine the water vapor absorption correction without detailed knowledge of the vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor. The feasibility of determining the SST is demonstrated globally with Nimbus 3 data, where cloud-free areas can be selected with the help of albedo data from the medium-resolution infrared radiometer experiment on board the same satellite. The SST derived from this technique agrees with the measurements made by ships to about 1 C.-

Prabhakara, C.↗

Atmospheric response to variations in sea-surface temperature

A two-week prediction experiment was performed with the GISS atmospheric model on a global data set beginning 20 December 1972 to test the sensitivity of the model to sea-surface temperature (SST) variations. Use of observed SST's in place of climatological monthly mean sea temperatures for surface flux calculations in the model was found to have a marked local effect on predicted precipitation over the ocean, with enhanced convection over warm SST anomalies. However, use of observed SST's did not lead to any detectable general improvement in forecast skill. The influence of the SST anomalies on daily predicted fields of pressure and geopotential was small up to about one week compared with the growth of prediction error, and no greater over a two-week period than that resulting from random errors in the initial meteorological state. The 14-day average fields of sea-level pressure and 500 mb height predicted by the model were similarly insensitive to the SST anomalies.

Spar, J.↗

Large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in a simplified coupled model of the midlatitude wintertime circulation

Midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interactions are studied in simulations from a simplified coupled model that includes synoptic-scale atmospheric variability, ocean current advection of SST, and air-sea heat exchange. Although theoretical dynamical ('identical twin') predictions using this model have shown that the SST anomalies in this model indeed influence the atmosphere, it is found here that standard cross correlation and empirical orthogonal function analyses of monthly mean model output yield the standard result, familiar from observational studies, that the atmosphere forces the ocean with little or no feedback. Therefore, these analyses are inconclusive and leave open the question of whether anomalous SST is influencing the atmosphere. In contrast, it is found that compositing strong warm events of model SST is a useful indicator of ocean forcing the atmosphere. Additional evidence is presented for oceanic influence on the atmosphere, namely, that ocean current advection appears to enhance the persistence of model SST anomalies through a feedback effect that is absent when only heat flux is allowed to influence SST anomaly evolution.

Miller, Arthur J.↗

Dynamical response of the tropical total ozone to sea surface temperature changes

Interannual variations of total ozone in the equatorial region are discussed in terms of the lower-stratospheric dynamical processes associated with sea surface temperature (SST) changes on an El Nino-Southern Oscillation time scale. Tropospheric diabatic heating by the latent heat release in convective systems drives the interannual variations of tropopause height and atmospheric vertical motions. The adiabatic cooling associated with the dynamically forced ascending motion is subject to radiative heating, which further extends the upwelling motion into the stratosphere. SST variations can thus influence total ozone amounts by changing the tropopause height and vertical advection through modulation of tropospheric diabatic heating. Mechanistic relationships that describe total ozone fluctuations through the advection effect and the tropopause effect of SST variations are derived using the equivalent potential temperature. Total ozone fluctuations are estimated using a quantitative formulation of these mechanistic equations together with the observed SST data. These results indicate that the interannual variations of the zonal wave component of equatorial total ozone are governed by the tropopause effect of SST variations. Preliminary investigation suggests that the annual cycle of tropical total ozone is coupled to the tropopause height changes under the influence of the planetary wave-induced lower-stratospheric temperature rather than local SST.

Hasebe, Fumio↗

Planetary-scale circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating

Interaction between the large-scale circulation and the convective pattern is investigated in a coupled system governed by the linearized primitive equations. Convection is represented in terms of two components of heating: A 'climatological component' is prescribed stochastically to represent convection that is maintained by fixed distributions of land and sea and sea surface temperature (SST). An 'induced component' is defined in terms of the column-integrated moisture flux convergence to represent convection that is produced through feedback with the circulation. Each component describes the envelope organizing mesoscale convective activity. As SST on the equator is increased, induced heating amplifies in the gravest zonal wavenumbers at eastward frequencies, where positive feedback offsets dissipation. Under barotropic stratification, a critical SST of 29.5 C results in positive feedback exactly cancelling dissipation in wavenumber 1 for an eastward phase speed of 6 m/s. Sympathetic interaction between the circulation and the induced heating is the basis for 'frictional wave-Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK)', which is distinguished from classical wave-CISK by rendering the gravest zonal dimensions most unstable. Under baroclinic stratification, the coupled system exhibits similar behavior. The critical SST is only 26.5 C for conditions representative of equinox, but in excess of 30 C for conditions representative of solstice. Having the form of an unsteady Walker circulation, the disturbance produced by frictional wave-CISK compares favorably with the observed life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). SST above the critical value produces an amplifying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric westerlies and is positively correlated with temperature and surface convergence. Conversely, SST below the critical value produces a decaying disturbance in which enhanced convection coincides with upper-tropospheric easterlies and is nearly in quadrature with temperature and surface convergence. While sharing essential features with the MJO in the Eastern Hemisphere, frictional wave-CISK does not explain observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere, where the convective signal is largely absent. Comprised of Kelvin structure with the same frequency, observed behavior in the Western Hemisphere can be understood as a propagating response that is excited in and radiates away from the fluctuation of convection in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Salby, Murry L↗

Satellite Sensed Skin Sea Surface Temperature

Quantitative predictions of spatial and temporal changes the global climate rely heavily on the use of computer models. Unfortunately, such models cannot provide the basis for climate prediction because key physical processes are inadequately treated. Consequently, fine tuning procedures are often used to optimize the fit between model output and observational data and the validation of climate models using observations is essential if model based predictions of climate change are to be treated with any degree of confidence. Satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations provide high spatial and temporal resolution data which is extremely well suited to the initialization, definition of boundary conditions and, validation of climate models. In the case of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the SST (or more correctly the 'Skin' SST (SSST)) is a fundamental diagnostic variable to consider in the validation process. Daily global SST maps derived from satellite sensors also provide adequate data for the detection of global patterns of change which, unlike any other SST data set, repeatedly extend into the southern hemisphere extra-tropical regions. Such data are essential to the success of the spatial 'fingerprint' technique, which seeks to establish a north-south asymmetry where warming is suppressed in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Some estimates suggest that there is a greater than 80% chance of directly detecting significant change (97.5 % confidence level) after 10-12 years of consistent global observations of mean sea surface temperature. However, these latter statements should be qualified with the assumption that a negligible drift in the observing system exists and that biases between individual instruments required to derive a long term data set are small. Given that current estimates for the magnitude of global warming of 0.015 K yr(sup -1) - 0.025 K yr(sup -1), satellite SST data sets need to be both accurate and stable if such a warming trend is to be confidently detected. Some of these activities are focussed to develop and deploy instrumentation suitable for the collection of precise in situ measurements of the SSST which can be used to improve the accuracy of satellite measurements, while others develop techniques to generate improved global analyses of sea surface temperature using historical data.

Donlon, Craig↗

Mechanisms Regulating Deep Moist Convection and Sea-Surface Temperatures of the Tropics

Despite numerous previous studies, two relationships between deep convection and the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the tropics remain unclear. The first is the cause for the sudden emergence of deep convection at about 28 deg SST, and the second is its proximity to the highest observed SST of about 30 C. Our analysis provides a rational explanation for both by utilizing the Improved Meteorological (IMET) buoy data together with radar rainfall retrievals and atmospheric soundings provided by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE). The explanation relies on the basic principles of moist convection as enunciated in the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. Our analysis shows that an SST range of 28-29 C is necessary for "charging" the atmospheric boundary layer with sufficient moist static energy that can enable the towering convection to reach up to the 200 hPa level. In the IMET buoy data, the changes in surface energy fluxes associated with different rainfall amounts show that the deep convection not only reduces the solar flux into the ocean with a thick cloud cover, but it also generates downdrafts which bring significantly cooler and drier air into the boundary-layer thereby augmenting oceanic cooling by increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. In this way, the ocean seasaws between a net energy absorber for non-raining and a net energy supplier for deep-convective raining conditions. These processes produce a thermostat-like control of the SST. The data also shows that convection over the warm pool is modulated by dynamical influences of large-scale circulation embodying tropical easterly waves (with a 5-day period) and MJOs (with 40-day period); however, the quasi-permanent feature of the vertical profile of moist static energy, which is primarily maintained by the large-scale circulation and thermodynamical forcings, is vital for both the 28 C SST for deep convection and its upper limit at about 30 C.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Ocean to Precipitation Induced Freshwater Flux

We have performed a series of experiments using an ocean model to study the sensitivity of tropical Pacific Ocean to variations in precipitation induced freshwater fluxes. Variations in these fluxes arise from natural causes on all time scales. In addition, estimates of these fluxes are uncertain because of differences among measurement techniques. The model used is a quasi-isopycnal model, covering the Pacific from 40 S to 40 N. The surface forcing is constructed from observed wind stress, evaporation, precipitation, and surface temperature (SST) fields. The heat flux is produced with an iterative technique so as to maintain the model close to the observed climatology, but with only a weak damping to that climatology. Climatological estimates of evaporation are combined with various estimates of precipitation to determine the net surface freshwater flux. Results indicate that increased freshwater input decreases salinity as expected, but increases temperatures in the upper ocean. Using the freshwater flux estimated from the Microwave Sounding Unit leads to a warming of up to 0.6 C in the western Pacific over a case with zero net freshwater flux. SST is sensitive to the discrepancies among different precipitation observations, with root-mean-square differences in SST on the order of 0.2-0.3 C. The change in SST is more pronounced in the eastern Pacific, with differences of over 1 C found among the various precipitation products. Interannual variation in precipitation during El Nino events leads to increased warming. During the winter of 1982-83, freshwater flux accounts for about 0.4 C (approximately 10-15% of the maximum warming) of the surface warming in the central-eastern Pacific. Thus, the error of SST caused by the discrepancies in precipitation products is more than half of the SST anomaly produced by the interannual variability of observed precipitation. Further experiments, in which freshwater flux anomalies are imposed in the western, central, and eastern Pacific, show that the influence of net freshwater flux is also spatially dependent. The imposition of freshwater flux in the far western Pacific leads to a trapping of salinity anomaly to the surface layers near the equator. An identical flux imposed in the central Pacific produces deeper and off-equatorial salinity anomalies. The contrast between these two simulations is consistent with other simulations of the western Pacific barrier layer information.

Yang, Song↗

High-Level Clouds and Relation to Sea Surface Temperature as Inferred from Japan's GMS Measurements

High-level clouds have a significant impact on the radiation energy budgets and, hence, the climate of the Earth. Convective cloud systems, which are controlled by large-scale thermal and dynamical conditions, propagate rapidly within days. At this time scale, changes of sea surface temperature (SST) are small. Radiances measured by Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to study the relation between high-level clouds and SST in the tropical western and central Pacific (30 S-30 N; 130 E-170 W), where the ocean is warm and deep convection is intensive. Twenty months (January 1998 - August, 1999) of GMS data are used, which cover the second half of the strong 1997-1998 El Nino. Brightness temperature at the 11-micron channel is used to identify high-level clouds. The core of convection is identified based on the difference in the brightness temperatures of the 11- and 12-micron channels. Because of the rapid movement of clouds, there is little correlation between clouds six hours apart. When most of deep convection moves to regions of high SST, the domain averaged high-level cloud amount decreases. A +2C change of SST in cloudy regions results in a relative change of -30% in high-level cloud amount. This large change in cloud amount is due to clouds moving from cool regions to warm regions but not the change in SST itself. A reduction in high-level cloud amount in the equatorial region implies an expanded dry upper troposphere in the off-equatorial region, and the greenhouse warming of high clouds and water vapor is reduced through enhanced longwave cooling to space. The results are important for understanding the physical processes relating SST, convection, and water vapor in the tropics. They are also important for validating climate simulations using global general circulation models.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Satellite and Skin Layer Effects on the Accuracy of Sea Surface Temperature Measurements from the GOES Satellites

The latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) have facilitated significant improvements in our ability to measure sea surface temperature (SST) from geostationary satellites. Nonetheless, difficulties associated with sensor calibration and oceanic near-surface temperature gradients affect the accuracy of the measurements and our ability to estimate and interpret the diurnal cycle of the bulk SST. Overall, measurements of SST from the GOES Imagers on the GOES 8-10 satellites are shown to have very small bias (less than 0.02 K) and rms differences of between 0.6 and 0.9 K relative to buoy observations. Separate consideration of individual measurement times, however, demonstrates systematic bias variations of over 0.6 K with measurement hour. These bias variations significantly affect both the amplitude and shape of estimates of the diurnal SST cycle. Modeled estimates of the temperature difference across the oceanic cool skin and diurnal thermocline show that bias variations up to 0.3 K can result from variability in the near-surface layer. Oceanic near-surface layer and known "satellite midnight" calibration effects, however, explain only a portion of the observed bias variations, suggesting other possible calibration concerns. Methods of explicitly incorporating skin layer and diurnal thermocline effects in satellite bulk SST measurements were explored in an effort to further improve the measurement accuracy. While the approaches contain more complete physics, they do not yet significantly improve the accuracy of bulk SST measurements due to remaining uncertainties in the temperature difference across the near-surface layer.

Wick, Gary A.↗

On the Regulation of the Pacific Warm Pool Temperature

In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗

Satellite-Based Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature Tendency in the Tropical Eastern Indian and Western Pacific Oceans for the 1997/98 El Nino and 1998/99 La Nina

The 1997/98 is a strong El Nino warm event, while the 1998/99 is a moderate La Nina cold event. We have investigated surface heat budgets and sea surface temperature (SST) tendency for these two events in the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans using satellite-retrieved surface radiative and turbulent fluxes. The radiative fluxes are taken from the Goddard Satellite-retrieved Surface Radiation Budget (GSSRB), derived from radiance measurements of the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The GSSRB covers the domain 40 deg S - 4 deg N, 90 deg E-17 deg W and a period from October 1997 to December 2000. The spatial resolution is 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg lat-long and the temporal resolution is 1 day. The turbulent fluxes are taken from Version 2 of the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF-2). The GSSTF-2 has a spatial resolution of 1 deg x 1 deg lat-long over global Oceans and a temporal resolution of 1 day covering the period July 1987-December 2000. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from the S S M (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) surface wind and surface air humidity, and the SST and 2-m air temperature of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a stability-dependent bulk flux algorithm. The changes of surface heat budgets, SST and tendency, cloudiness, wind speed, and zonal wind stress of the 1997/98 El Nino relative to the1998/99 La Nina for the northern winter and spring seasons are analyzed. The relative changes of surface heat budgets and SST tendency of the two events are quite different between the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. For the tropical western Pacific, reduced solar heating (more clouds) is generally associated with decreased evaporative cooling (weaker winds), and vise versa. The changes in evaporative cooling over-compensate that of solar heating and dominate the spatial variability of the changes in net surface heating. Both solar heating and evaporative cooling offset each other to reduce interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is larger than that of increased net surface heating, due to less solar radiation penetration through the bottom of deeper ocean mixed layer (stronger winds). For the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, enhanced solar heating (less clouds) is generally associated with reduced evaporative cooling (weaker winds). Both solar heating and evaporative cooling reinforce each other to increase interannual variability of net surface heating. In addition, the area of increased SST tendency is smaller than that of increased net surface heating in the southern domain. The relative changes in wind and zonal wind stress indicate more solar radiation penetration through the ocean mixed layer and more northward heat transport by Ocean current from the south to the north Indian Ocean for the El Nino than for the La Nina.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

The Eastern Pacific ITCZ during the Boreal Spring

The 6-year (1998-2003) rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are used to quantify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Pacific (defined by longitudinal averages over 90 degrees W-130 degrees W) during boreal spring (March-April). The double ITCZ phenomenon, represented by the occurrence of two maxima with respect to latitude in monthly mean rainfall, is observed in most but not all of the years studied. The relative spatial locations of maxima in sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and surface pressure are examined. Interannual and weekly variability are characterized in SST, rainfall, surface convergence, total column water vapor, and cloud water. There appears to be a competition for rainfall between the two hemispheres during this season. When one of the two rainfall maxima is particularly strong, the other tends to be weak, with the total rainfall integrated over the two varying less than does the difference between the rainfall integrated over each separately. There is some evidence for a similar competition between the SST maxima in the two hemispheres, but this is more ambiguous, and there is evidence that some variations in the relative strengths of the two rainfall maxima may be independent of SST. Using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), four distinct ITCZ types during March-April are defined, based on the relative strengths of rainfall peaks north and south of, and right over the equator. Composite meridional profiles and spatial distributions of rainfall and SST are documented for each type. Consistent with previous studies, an equatorial cold tongue is essential to the existence of the double ITCZs. However, too strong a cold tongue may dampen either the southern or northern rainfall maximum, depending on the magnitude of SST north of the equator.

Gu, Guojun↗

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.

Case, Jonathan L.↗