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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995–2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September–2002 September) and 24 (2008 December–2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m{sup −2} and >6 × 10{sup 5} sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006–2014 interval in comparison with 1995–2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006–2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995–2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006–2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995–2005 data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

MAGNETIC HELICITY AND ENERGY SPECTRA OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION

We compute for the first time the magnetic helicity and energy spectra of the solar active region NOAA 11158 during 2011 February 11-15 at 20° southern heliographic latitude using observational photospheric vector magnetograms. We adopt the isotropic representation of the Fourier-transformed two-point correlation tensor of the magnetic field. The sign of the magnetic helicity turns out to be predominantly positive at all wavenumbers. This sign is consistent with what is theoretically expected for the southern hemisphere. The magnetic helicity normalized to its theoretical maximum value, here referred to as relative helicity, is around 4% and strongest at intermediate wavenumbers of k ≈ 0.4 Mm{sup –1}, corresponding to a scale of 2π/k ≈ 16 Mm. The same sign and a similar value are also found for the relative current helicity evaluated in real space based on the vertical components of magnetic field and current density. The modulus of the magnetic helicity spectrum shows a k {sup –11/3} power law at large wavenumbers, which implies a k {sup –5/3} spectrum for the modulus of the current helicity. A k {sup –5/3} spectrum is also obtained for the magnetic energy. The energy spectra evaluated separately from the horizontal and vertical fields agree for wavenumbers below 3 Mm{sup –1}, corresponding to scales above 2 Mm. This gives some justification to our assumption of isotropy and places limits resulting from possible instrumental artifacts at small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar activity

Statistical prediction methods for short-term (months) and long-term (years) forecasting of solar activity were studied. The comparisons indicate that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by lining up the maximum (or minimums, or both) by cycle number. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.

Holland, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

VLA observations of solar active regions at closely spaced frequencies - Evidence for thermal cyclotron line emission

VLA observations of a solar active region at 10 closely spaced frequencies between 1440 and 1720 MHz are presented. The synthesis maps show, on two successive days, significant changes in the brightness temperature within this narrow frequency range. It is shown that these changes cannot be due to either thermal bremsstrahlung or gyroresonance emission from a coronal loop in wich the temperature, density, or magnetic field varies monotonically with height. Instead, the brightness spectrum is attributed to cyclotron line emission from a narrow layer, where the temperature is elevated above the surrounding part of the loop.

Willson, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

High Resolution Soft X-Ray Spectroscopy and the Quest for the Hot (5-10 MK) Plasma in Solar Active Regions

We discuss the diagnostics available to study the 5–10 MK plasma in the solar corona, which is key to understanding the heating in the cores of solar active regions. We present several simulated spectra, and show that excellent diagnostics are available in the soft X-rays, around 100 A, as six ionisation stages of Fe can simultaneously be observed, and electron densities derived, within a narrow spectral region. As this spectral range is almost unexplored, we present an analysis of available and simulated spectra, to compare the hot emission with the cooler component. We adopt recently designed multilayers to present estimates of count rates in the hot lines, with a baseline spectrometer design. Excellent count rates are found, opening up the exciting opportunity to obtain high-resolution spectroscopy of hot plasma.

Giulio Del Zanna↗
NASA NTRS1999

Coronal Magnetography of Solar Active Regions Using Coordinated SOHO/CDS and VLA Observations

The purpose of this project is to apply the coronal magnetographic technique to SOHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) /CDS (Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer) EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation) and coordinated VLA microwave observations of solar active regions to derive the strength and structure of the coronal magnetic field. A CDS observing plan was developed for obtaining spectra needed to derive active region differential emission measures (DEMs) required for coronal magnetography. VLA observations were proposed and obtained. SOHO JOP 100 was developed, tested, approved, and implemented to obtain coordinated CDS (Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer)/EIT (Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope)/ VLA (Very Large Array)/ TRACE (Transition Region and Coronal Explorer)/ SXT (Solar X Ray Telescope) observations of active regions on April 12, May 9, May 13, and May 23. Analysis of all four data sets began, with heaviest concentration on COS data. It is found that 200-pixel (14 A in NIS1) wavelength windows are appropriate for extracting broadened Gaussian line profile fit parameters for lines including Fe XIV at 334.2, Fe XVI at 335.4, Fe XVI at 360.8, and Mg IX at 368.1 over the 4 arcmin by 4 arcmin CDS field of view. Extensive efforts were focused on learning and applying were focused on learning and applying CDS software, and including it in new IDL procedures to carry out calculations relating to coronal magnetography. An important step is to extract Gaussian profile fits to all the lines needed to derive the DEM in each spatial pixel of any given active region. The standard CDS absolute intensity calibration software was applied to derived intensity images, revealing that ratios between density-insensitive lines like Fe XVI 360.8/335.4 yield good agreement with theory. However, the resulting absolute intensities of those lines are very high, indicating that revisions to the CDS absolute intensity calibrations remain to be included in the CDS software, an essential step to deriving reliable coronal magnetograms. With lessons learned and high quality data obtained during the past year, coronal magnetography will be successfully pursued under my new SOHO GI program.

Brosius, Jeffrey W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

3D-Stereoscopic Analysis of Solar Active Region Loops: I: SoHo/EIT Observations at Temperatures of 1.0-1.5 MK

The three-dimensional (3D) structure of solar active region NOAA 7986 observed on 1996 August 30 with the Extrem-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) is analyzed. We develop a new method of Dynamic Stereoscopy to reconstruct the 3D geometry of dynamically changing loops, which allows us to determine the orientation of the loop plane with respect to the line-of-sight, a prerequisite to correct properly for projection effects in 3D loop models. With this method and the filter-ratio technique applied to EIT 171 A and 195 A images we determine the 3D coordinates (x(s), y(s), z(s)), the loop width) w(s), the electron density n(sub e)(s), and the electron temperature T(sub e)(s) as function of the loop length s for 30 loop segments. Fitting the loop densities with an exponential density model n(sub e)(h) we find that the so inferred scale height temperatures, T(sub e)(sup lambda) = 1.22 +/- 0.23 MK, match closely the EIT filter-ratio temperatures, T(sub e)(sup FIT) = 1.21 +/- 0.06 MK. We conclude that these rather large-scale loops (with heights of h approx. equals 50 - 200 Mm) that dominate EIT 171 A images are close to thermal equilibrium. Most of the loops show no significant thickness variation w(s), but many exhibit a trend of increasing temperature (dT/ds greater than 0) above the footpoint.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Relationship Between Transit Velocity of Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Active Processes

Recently, it was reported that preferential relationships exist between the transit velocity V(sub T) of earthward-directed interplanetary shocks and solar active processes, in particular, eruptive filaments outside active regions (the size of the erupting filament L(sub f)) and solar flares (the value of the X-ray characteristic J). Unfortunately, statistical testing of the proposed associations was not accomplished, nor was the 'geo-effectiveness' of the events adequately described. Reported here are the results of a re-examination of the 21 eruptive filaments (SSC-EF events) and 26 X-ray flares (SSC-F events) that have been associated with storm sudden commencements (SSCs) at Earth. Simple statistical testing refutes the claim that a preferential relationship exists between V(sub T) and L(sub F), while it supports the claim that one exists between V(sub T) and J. More importantly, the inferred relationship between V(sub T) and J is found to be more complicated than previously thought. In particular, it now appears that SSC-F events may be separable into two groups, based on the value of J: a low-J group (J less than 56), in which V(sub T) varies directly with J, and a high-J group (J greater than 56), in which V(sub T) varies inversely with J. As a whole, high-J events are associated with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of low-J events, and SSC-F events with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of SSC-EF events. Further, high-J events tend to be of greater X-ray class ( greater than M3), longer duration (greater then 80 min), and are more likely to be associated with type II/IV radio emission (9 of 12) than low-J events. They also tend to occur in magnetically complex (gamma/delta configuration) active regions (10 of 12) that are large in area extent (area greater than 445 millionths of a solar hemisphere) on the day of flaring (9 of 12). Of the 9 solar proton events that affected the Earth's environment that were found to be associated with SSC-F events, six were high-J events. Concerning 'geo-effectiveness', there appears to be no preferential relationship between the value of the J-parameter and the most negative value of the Dst geomagnetic index Dst(min) following the SSC, which is found to usually occur at 6-14 h after SSC onset (18 of 26) and which ranged in value from -1 to -249 (having a median value of about -75). Of the 26 SSC-F events, only 14 can be associated with a Dst(min) less than or equal to -75, and of these only 7 were high-J events. Of the 14 storm-related events (i.e. Dst(min) less than or equal to -75), three have previously been identified as being either 'magnetic clouds' or 'bidirectional flows', both manifestations of earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Superposed epoch analyses of selected solar wind parameters and Dst during the interval of storm-related SSC-F events demonstrate that geoeffective SSC-F events tend to be associated with solar wind flows that are faster, greater in magnetic field strength, and have a rotating field which has a strong southward component shortly after SSC onset, in comparison to SSC-F events that do not have Dst(min) less than or equal to 75. Therefore, it is inferred that geoeffective SSC-F events are probably fast earthward-directed CMEs. Although no single parameter is found that can serve as a predictor of high-skill level for determining the geoeffectiveness of an SSC-F event prior to its occurrence at Earth, one finds that knowledge of the flare's hemispheric location and appearance or lack of appearance of a two-ribbon structure is sufficient to correctly predict the geoeffectiveness of 20 out of 25 of the SSC-F events (80%). Surprisingly, the association or lack of association of metric type II/IV radio emission as a characteristic for determining the geoeffectiveness of the SSC-F events proved unfruitful, as did, to a lesser extent, the duration of the X-ray emission.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay

It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.

Raychaudhuri, P.↗
DOE OSTI2014

DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC CURRENTS IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

There has been a long-standing debate on the question of whether or not electric currents in solar active regions are neutralized. That is, whether or not the main (or direct) coronal currents connecting the active region polarities are surrounded by shielding (or return) currents of equal total value and opposite direction. Both theory and observations are not yet fully conclusive regarding this question, and numerical simulations have, surprisingly, barely been used to address it. Here we quantify the evolution of electric currents during the formation of a bipolar active region by considering a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the emergence of a sub-photospheric, current-neutralized magnetic flux rope into the solar atmosphere. We find that a strong deviation from current neutralization develops simultaneously with the onset of significant flux emergence into the corona, accompanied by the development of substantial magnetic shear along the active region's polarity inversion line. After the region has formed and flux emergence has ceased, the strong magnetic fields in the region's center are connected solely by direct currents, and the total direct current is several times larger than the total return current. These results suggest that active regions, the main sources of coronal mass ejections and flares, are born with substantial net currents, in agreement with recent observations. Furthermore, they support eruption models that employ pre-eruption magnetic fields containing such currents.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1971

X-ray spectroscopy of solar active regions and flares.

Review of some recent contributions of X-ray spectroscopy to knowledge about solar active regions and flares. As an example of the importance of X-ray spectroscopy, it is pointed out that, while there are no emission lines from highly ionized silicon in the visible spectrum, the XUV spectrum has emission lines from SiIX through SiXIV. Jordan's (1969) calculations of ionization equilibria for silicon and iron are illustrated by diagrams and discussed. The observation of SiXIV gives evidence for regions having electron temperatures from 5 to 20 million deg. The ability to record the corona against the disk of the sun has enabled Van Speybroeck et al. (1970) to identify many bright diffuse X-ray emitting regions with remnants of old active regions of the type giving rise to unipolar magnetic regions. The physical characteristics of the hot coronal plasma associated with chromospheric flares are outlined on the basis of current observations.

Neupert, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

How Large Scales Flows May Influence Solar Activity

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun's magnetic activity cycle and play important roles in shaping the Sun's magnetic field. Differential rotation amplifies the magnetic field through its shearing action and converts poloidal field into toroidal field. Poleward meridional flow near the surface carries magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles at about the time of solar maximum. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux back toward the lower latitudes where it erupts through the surface to form tilted active regions that convert toroidal fields into oppositely directed poloidal fields. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun's rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain both the differential rotation and the meridional circulation. These convective motions can also influence solar activity directly by shaping the magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Time variations in solar activity.

Long-term variations in the height of solar maxima and in the relative spottedness of the northern and southern solar hemispheres are considered. Mean sunspot numbers in the present solar cycle are found to be similar to those in cycles with maxima in 1937, 1917, 1860, and 1769. Time variations within the 11-year cycle are considered. It is pointed out that all solar latitudes and longitudes do not attain maximum levels of activity at the same time. Furthermore, the course of solar activity as measured by sunspot number and 2800 MHz flux is seldom smooth but appears to advance by series of pulses or episodes. Study of the declining branches of solar cycles 12 through 19 suggests that there will be 5 to 6 primary fluctuations of activity on the declining branch of cycle 20 in the years 1970.5-1975. At least half of these pulses can be expected to include significantly flare-rich centers of activity.

Dodson, H. W.↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE NONPOTENTIALITY OF CORONAE OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS, THE DYNAMICS OF THE SURFACE MAGNETIC FIELD, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE FLARES

Flares and eruptions from solar active regions (ARs) are associated with atmospheric electrical currents accompanying distortions of the coronal field away from a lowest-energy potential state. In order to better understand the origin of these currents and their role in M- and X-class flares, I review all AR observations made with Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and SDO/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly from 2010 May through 2014 October within ≈40° from the disk center. I select the roughly 4% of all regions that display a distinctly nonpotential coronal configuration in loops with a length comparable to the scale of the AR, and all that emit GOES X-class flares. The data for 41 regions confirm, with a single exception, that strong-field, high-gradient polarity inversion lines (SHILs) created during emergence of magnetic flux into, and related displacement within, pre-existing ARs are associated with X-class flares. Obvious nonpotentiality in the AR-scale loops occurs in six of ten selected regions with X-class flares, all with relatively long SHILs along their primary polarity inversion line, or with a long internal filament there. Nonpotentiality can exist in ARs well past the flux-emergence phase, often with reduced or absent flaring. I conclude that the dynamics of the flux involved in the compact SHILs is of pre-eminent importance for the large-flare potential of ARs within the next day, but that their associated currents may not reveal themselves in AR-scale nonpotentiality. In contrast, AR-scale nonpotentiality, which can persist for many days, may inform us about the eruption potential other than those from SHILs which is almost never associated with X-class flaring.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗