Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Mitigation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

Competing Interests and Creating Value - Balancing Durable and Enforceable Institutional Controls with Beneficial Reuse - 20320

US DOE LM has various real property interests at the 100 sites within its current portfolio, with an anticipated total of 127 sites within the next 5 years. Each site has its own narrative with respect to the real property assets. Since the regulatory time frame for long-term surveillance and maintenance activities at some sites can be in perpetuity, durable and effective instruments and documentation are necessary to support LM's unique mission as a federal land manager and steward. More than half of the sites currently in LM's inventory do not allow unrestricted use, and institutional controls (ICs) are required to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination. LM's Asset Management program balances protection of human health and the environment with a goal of optimizing its land portfolio through mitigation of risk, limiting liability, and creating value, whether tangible or intangible, in these types of assets. The IC layering strategy utilizes multiple types, restrictions, and legal authorities to protect human health and the environment. This layering strategy influences the transition of these properties into LM's portfolio to assess potential beneficial reuses. The LM's beneficial reuse program aims to repurpose former contaminated sites to restore the environment, protect the public health, revitalize communities, and spur economic growth. LM strives to create value in a perceived valueless asset and reevaluates and revisits the potential opportunities for these sites as long-term surveillance and maintenance activities are performed and objectives are achieved. Beneficial reuse also promotes protectiveness by ensuring activities are compatible with long-term maintenance and protection of public health and the environment as well as ensuring activities are environmentally sound by retaining good stewardship of natural resources. LM has recently revised both the Institutional Control Program Guidance and its Beneficial Reuse Management Plan to integrate the issues of land use with ICs, creating value in these impaired assets. This paper presents the following topics: (1) a general overview of LM's IC and beneficial reuse programs; (2) the unique aspects of each of these programs as a result of the multiple regulatory requirements and programs that affect LM sites; (3) case studies of LM sites to show examples of how LM created value while complying with the ICs and layering strategies; and (4) the most common challenges to beneficial reuses at LM sites and potential options for value creation in impaired assets. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Multilaminate Energy Storage Films from Entropy‐Driven Self‐Assembled Supramolecular Nanocomposites

Abstract Composite materials comprising polymers and inorganic nanoparticles (NPs) are promising for energy storage applications, though challenges in controlling NP dispersion often result in performance bottlenecks. Realizing nanocomposites with controlled NP locations and distributions within polymer microdomains is highly desirable for improving energy storage capabilities but is a persistent challenge, impeding the in‐depth understanding of the structure–performance relationship. In this study, a facile entropy‐driven self‐assembly approach is employed to fabricate block copolymer‐based supramolecular nanocomposite films with highly ordered lamellar structures, which are then used in electrostatic film capacitors. The oriented interfacial barriers and well‐distributed inorganic NPs within the self‐assembled multilaminate nanocomposites effectively suppress leakage current and mitigate the risk of breakdown, showing superior dielectric strength compared to their disordered counterparts. Consequently, the lamellar nanocomposite films with optimized composition exhibit high energy efficiency (>90% at 650 MV m −1 ), along with remarkable energy density and power density. Moreover, finite element simulations and statistical modeling have provided theoretical insights into the impact of the lamellar structure on electrical conduction, electric field distribution, and electrical tree propagation. This work marks a significant advancement in the design of organic–inorganic hybrids for energy storage, establishing a well‐defined correlation between microstructure and performance.

Li, He↗

Shortest path network interdiction with asymmetric uncertainty

Abstract This paper considers an extension of the shortest path network interdiction problem that incorporates robustness to account for parameter uncertainty. The shortest path interdiction problem is a game of two players with conflicting agendas and capabilities: an evader, who traverses the arcs of a network from a source node to a sink node using a path of shortest length, and an interdictor, who maximizes the length of the evader's shortest path by interdicting arcs on the network. It is usually assumed that the parameters defining the network are known exactly by both players. We consider the situation where the evader assumes the nominal parameter values while the interdictor uses robust optimization techniques to account for parameter uncertainty or sensor degradation. We formulate this problem as a nonlinear mixed‐integer semi‐infinite bilevel program and show that it can be converted into a mixed‐integer linear program with a second order cone constraint. We use random geometric networks and transportation networks to perform computational studies and demonstrate the unique decision strategies that our variant produces. Solving the shortest path interdiction problem with asymmetric uncertainty protects the interdictor from investing in a strategy that hinges on key interdictions performing as promised. It also provides an alternate strategy that mitigates the risk of these worst‐case possibilities.

Punla‐Green, She'ifa Z.↗

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Tailoring Microbial Fitness Through Computational Steering and CRISPRi-Driven Robustness Regulation

The widespread application of genetically modified microorganisms (GMMs) across diverse sectors underscores the pressing need for robust strategies to mitigate the risks associated with their potential uncontrolled escape. This study merges computational modeling with CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) to refine GMM metabolic robustness. Utilizing ensemble modeling, we achieved high-throughput in silico screening for enzymatic targets susceptible to expression alterations. Translating these insights, we developed functional CRISPRi, boosting fitness control via multiplexed gene knockdown. Our method, enhanced by an insulator-improved gRNA structure and an off-switch circuit controlling a compact Cas12m, resulted in rationally engineered strains with escape frequencies below National Institutes of Health standards. The effectiveness of this approach was confirmed under various conditions, showcasing its ability for secure GMM management. This research underscores the resilience of microbial metabolism, strategically modifying key nodes to halt growth without provoking significant resistance, thereby enabling more reliable and precise GMM control. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A fully light-driven approach to separate carbon dioxide from emission streams

Carbon capture from industrial point sources is an essential component of the global effort to mitigate climate risks. However, traditional approaches require significant energy input—often provided, counterproductively, by fossil fuel combustion. Using sunlight directly as the energy source would significantly improve the energy efficiency of carbon capture processes. Herein, we report the first fully visible-light-driven CO 2 separation system, in which carbon capture is achieved via the photoenolization/addition reaction of inexpensive 2-methylbenzophenone with CO 2 , and CO 2 release is realized through an intramolecular photodecarboxylation reaction. Finally, this system operates isothermally, works with natural sunlight, and facilitates CO 2 removal from natural gas flue emissions, providing a blueprint for other non-thermal chemical separations.

Ahmad, Bayu I. Z. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unit↗

Large scale polymer toughening of two-dimensional materials revealed by in situ TEM fracture tests and multiscale simulations

Two-dimensional (2D) materials offer significant potential for applications in energy-harvesting devices, batteries, sensors, and transistors. However, their intrinsic brittleness makes them prone to mechanical failure, limiting their practical use. In this work, we perform in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) fracture tests on monolayer MoSe2 and uncover an extrinsic toughening effect induced by an ultrathin adsorbed polystyrene adlayer. This adlayer substantially enhances the fracture resistance of the 2D flakes. Through a combination of molecular dynamics simulations and finite element analysis, we elucidate the molecular mechanism behind this toughening effect. Further, it arises from the active crack-bridging behavior of entangled polymer chains and the formation of a fracture process zone that stabilizes crack propagation and increases the energy required for crack extension. The proposed toughening mechanism offers a pathway to improving the mechanical reliability of 2D material-based devices by mitigating the risk of sudden failure.

2D materials↗

Meeting sustainable aviation fuel policy targets through first generation corn biorefineries

This paper investigates options to produce low carbon and renewable aviation fuel through existing commercial first generation biorefineries, which could be strategic given the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market for personal mobility. We evaluate the environmental impact of retrofitting a first generation biorefinery to produce aviation fuel through chemical process simulation. The analysis investigates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and displacing fossil fuel (petroleum-based jet kerosene) in the aviation fuel industry through using corn feedstocks in dry grind biorefineries to convert sugars to 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), which qualifies as renewable jet-A fuel blend and is infrastructure compatible. Further, the average life cycle GHG emissions for a baseline case and a scenario with carbon capture and storage (CCS) of fermentative CO 2 are 36 and 5g CO 2 e/MJ DMCO, respectively. Investment in CCS at the biorefinery and adoption of crop best management practices on farms are essential for mitigating the risks of induced land use change GHG emissions for existing corn biorefineries. DMCO as a low-carbon aviation fuel could be a strategic fuel product for retrofitting existing corn dry grind facilities. For aviation fuel supply, corn dry grind facilities could displace about 12% of jet fuel demand in the near term, which would meet sustainable aviation fuel policy targets. We conclude that corn-to-DMCO shows promise for near-term low-carbon fuel markets in the aviation industry and as a bridge to developing biomass-based jet fuel in the future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Biorefinery upgrading of herbaceous biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuels, Part 2: Air pollutant emissions and permitting implications

The development of advanced biofuel production facilities is still at a nascent stage, and the biorefineries could face challenges in obtaining air permits required for their construction and operation because they are novel emission sources. To fill gaps in knowledge regarding potential emissions, we perform a detailed federal regulatory analysis and estimate air pollutant emissions for an advanced biorefinery that produces renewable diesel blendstock (RDB) from lignocellulosic biomass via aerobic respiration documented in Part 1 of the paper. We evaluate 12 design permutations that include two feedstocks, a uniform format blend (UFB) and corn stover; three biorefinery scales, 2,000, 5,200, and 9,100 dry metric tons per day (dmtd) of lignocellulosic biomass feed; and two lignin uses, as either a boiler fuel or for pellet production. We also evaluate 6 additional design permutations by incorporating non-emitting renewable power, which could reduce up to 63% carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) each, 21% volatile organic compounds (VOC), and 43% hazardous air pollutants (HAP) as opposed to on-site power production, for biorefineries that produce pellets, using either UFB or corn stover. Our results indicate that all 18 design permutations would be classified as a major source under the Clean Air Act's New Source Review program without additional emission controls. Compared to using lignin as a boiler fuel, diverting lignin for pellet production reduces the emissions of CO up to 88%, NOx up to 73%, sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) up to 99%, VOCs up to 72%, and HAPs up to 66%. Additionally, we explore control options that could further reduce emissions and assess whether reductions are enough to achieve minor source classification. Insights from our analysis can help biorefinery developers and regulators develop permitting strategies to mitigate investment risks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling

Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. In this work, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Recent seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano (Mexico)

Magma and related hydrothermal fluid movement, and their interaction with solid rock, in active volcanic regions, generate a wide variety of seismic waves whose characterization can mitigate the risk of a potential eruption. Located in the western region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Ceboruco Volcano, whose last eruptive period was 1870–1875, is considered to be one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Mexico. We have conducted a detailed study of the seismicity in the surroundings of Ceboruco's volcanic edifice to assess the current state of this volcano. A dense temporary seismic network with 25 seismic stations in an area of 16 km × 16 km was deployed between November 2016 and July 2017, as part of the P-24 project of the CeMIEGeo consortium; this effort has allowed the detection of 81 earthquakes concentrated beneath the crater with depths between 4 and 8 km. In this study, we observe that the recorded seismicity occurs in swarms, and we specifically identify four sequences that we characterize in detail via the first focal mechanisms available for this volcano. Our results suggest a change in the local seismicity distribution compared to earlier observations, which reported seismic activity near the volcano edifice associated with fluid migration along zones of weakness related to the extensional stresses of the Tepic-Zacoalco rift. The changes in seismic patterns and obtained focal mechanisms are consistent with observed fluid effects at many geothermal sites worldwide, but also could suggest resumption of activity at this currently dormant volcano.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of a versatile, high-temperature, high-throughput ion irradiation system

We report ion irradiation has long been used as a surrogate for neutron irradiation experiments which are comparatively slower, more expensive, and often can leave materials activated and difficult to handle post-irradiation. However, with the growing use of combinatorial synthesis methods and high-throughput, automated characterization techniques, ion irradiation facilities will need to upgrade their capabilities to be able to accommodate these new material platforms. To address this challenge, a high-throughput ion irradiation system has been developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Ion Beam Laboratory (IBL). The system is capable of accommodating large sample arrays of arbitrary geometries and heat samples individually using an infrared laser to enable high-temperature, high-throughput ion irradiation while mitigating the risk of annealing the irradiation damage in nearby samples. To control stage motion, laser power, and beam current measurement, among other tasks, the program Chronos was developed which enables automated high-throughput irradiation experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Tree-ring evidence marks year 2022 as the driest spring season in nearly four centuries in the Western Himalayas

The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is a crucial freshwater source for billions across South Asia, yet its climate remains poorly understood due to limited long-term records. Winter and spring precipitation govern snow accumulation and downstream water availability in dry months particularly across the Western Himalayas (WH), but recent decades show intensifying droughts with unclear long-term context. Here, we have reconstructed a nearly four-century-long spring i.e. February to May (FMAM) precipitation for the Lahaul region of the (WH), an area dominated by the Western Disturbances. This record was developed using moisture-sensitive Cedrus deodara (Deodar) tree-rings from three high-elevation sites. A regional composite tree-ring-width chronology, developed through a Nested Principal Component Analysis and modeled with a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that explains 71 % of the variance during the calibration period. We identified the last two decades as the most precipitation deficit phase and the year 2022 showing the driest FMAM on record. The observed rise in the FMAM dry episodes post 1999 CE in our reconstruction, corresponds to the meteorological records. This recent drying is linked to a northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet and reduced moisture transport, both associated with unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific Ocean. Our results provide compelling evidence of long-term hydroclimatic instability in the WH and emphasize the value of tree-ring records in extending precipitation histories beyond the instrumental observations. Such reconstructions can be benchmarks to validate high-resolution climate models and formulate adaptation policies to mitigate future risks.

Cedrus deodara↗

Marine energy supported multi-energy system planning and operation optimization for sustainable coastal community

The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.

Capacity planning↗

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Fracture Caging to Limit Induced Seismicity

Geothermal resources offer a stable low-carbon energy source. However, geothermal sites can collocate with the hypocenters of large-magnitude seismic events. Large seismic events pose a risk to public safety and are therefore a liability for efforts to develop geothermal resources. In this work, we propose “fracture caging” to limit induced seismic event magnitudes and present evidence from numerical model predictions, laboratory experiments, and field observations. Fracture caging involves drilling tactical production wells around a geothermal injection zone to contain fluids in fracture-dominated flow systems. Prior to our work, the effect of small wells on the growth of large fractures and on flow through fractures was subject to debate. Our work shows that production wells can impede fracture growth and contain high-pressure fluids in fracture-dominated rocks. This containment offers a mechanism to limit induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗