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NASA NTRS2020

Unprecedented Atmospheric Conditions (1948–2019) Drive the 2019 Exceptional Melting Season Over the Greenland Ice Sheet

Understanding the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is fundamental for improving estimates of its current and future contributions to sea level rise. Here, we show, using a combination of remote sensing observations, regional climate model outputs, reanalysis data, and artificial neural networks, that unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new record or close-to-record values of surface mass balance (SMB), runoff, and snowfall. Specifically, runoff in 2019 ranked second within the 1948–2019 period (after 2012) and first in terms of surface mass balance negative anomaly for the hydrological year 1 September 2018–31 August 2019. The summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that, in conjunction with low albedo associated with reduced snowfall in summer, enhanced the melt–albedo feedback by promoting the absorption of solar radiation and favored advection of warm, moist air along the western portion of the ice sheet towards the north, where the surface melt has been the highest since 1948. The analysis of the frequency of daily 500 hPa geopotential heights obtained from artificial neural networks shows that the total number of days with the five most frequent atmospheric patterns that characterized the summer of 2019 was 5 standard deviations above the 1981–2010 mean, confirming the exceptional nature of the 2019 season over Greenland.

Greenland ice sheet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cascading toward a Kilometer‐scale GCM: Impacts of a Scale‐aware Convection Parameterization in the Goddard Earth Observing System GCM.

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global model is evaluated through a cascade of simulations with increasing horizontal resolution. This model employs a non-hydrostatic dynamical core and includes a scale-aware, deep convection parameterization (DPCP). 40-daysimulations at six resolutions (100km to 3km) with unvarying model formulation were produced. At the highest resolution, extreme experiments were carried out; one with no DPCP, and one with its scale-awareness eliminated. Simulated precipitation, radiative balance, and atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamical variables are well reproduced with respect to both observational and reanalysis data. As model resolution increases, the convective precipitation smoothly transitions from being mostly produced by the convection parameterization to the cloud microphysics parameterization. However, contrary to current thought, these extreme cases argue for maintaining, to some extent, the scale-aware deep convection parameterization even at 3kmscale, as the run relying solely on explicit grid-scale production of rainfall performs more poorly at this resolution.

Saulo Freitas↗

NASA NTRS2020

Basin-Scale River Runoff Estimation from GRACE Gravity Satellites, Climate Models and In Situ Observations: a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

River runoff is estimated as a water budget residual using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage time series, ERA5 reanalysis data, and precipitation observations for January 2003 through December 2015 for the Obidos upstream drainage basin and for the entire Amazon basin. Estimated runoff based on the water budget agrees remarkably well with in situgauge observations at Obidos, especially at seasonal time scales, with nearly perfect phase agreementbut slightly larger seasonal amplitude. The discrepancy in the seasonal amplitude maybe attributed to underestimation of river gauge runoff during the wet season when water overflows the riverbanks. The ERA5 model appears to overestimate long-term mean evapotranspiration in the Amazon by ~2 cm/monthb ased on comparisons with precipitation and runoff observations. Using precipitation data based on satellites and gauge observations relative to gauge observations alone improved agreement between water budget runoff estimates and in situ runoff observations. Seasonal variations in ERA5 simulated runoff are about twice as large as those from in situobservations and show a large phase lag as well. Water budget based runoff for the entire Amazon (~ 7,200 km3averaged 29over the 13 yr period) is significantly larger than observed runoff (~5,700 km3) at notably larger than previous estimates for the entire Amazon. These differences may be partly related to submarine runoff from the Amazon basin that cannot be captured by surface gauges.

Jianli Chen↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cirrus Cloud Top-of-the-Atmosphere Net Daytime Forcing in the Alaskan Subarctic from Ground-Based MPLNET Monitoring

Cirrus cloud daytime top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing (TOA CRF) is estimated for a two-year NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (532 nm; MPLNET) dataset collected at Fairbanks, Alaska. Two-year averaged daytime TOA CRF is estimated at between -1.08 and 0.78 W·m-2 (-0.49 to 1.10 W·m-2 in 2017, and -1.67 to 0.47 W·m-2 in 2018). This subarctic study completes a now trilogy of MPLNET ground-based cloud forcing investigations, following midlatitude and tropical studies by Campbell et al. (2016; C16) at Greenbelt, Maryland and Lolli et al. (2017) at Singapore. C16 hypothesize a global meridional daytime TOA CRF gradient that begins positive at the equator (2.20 – 2.59 W·m-2 over land and -0.46 – 0.42 W·m-2 over ocean at Singapore), becomes neutral in the midlatitudes (0.03 – 0.27 W·m-2 over land in Maryland) and turns negative moving poleward. This study does not completely confirm C16, as values are not found as exclusively negative. Evidence in historical reanalysis data suggests that daytime cirrus forcing in and around the subarctic likely once was exclusively negative. Increasing tropopause heights, inducing higher and colder cirrus, have likely increased regional forcing over the last forty years. We hypothesize that subarctic inter-annual cloud variability is likely a considerable influence on global cirrus cloud forcing sensitivity, given the irregularity of polar versus midlatitude synoptic weather intrusions. This study and hypothesis lays basis for an extrapolation of these MPLNET experiments to satellite-based lidar cirrus cloud datasets.

James R Campbell↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Tyler James Thorsen↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improving the Representation of Subtropical Boundary Layer Clouds in the NASA GEOS Model with the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux Parameterization

A systematic underestimation of subtropical planetary boundary layer (PBL) stratocu-mulus clouds by the GEOS model has been significantly improved by a new Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) parameterization. The EDMF parameterization representsthe subgrid-scale transport in the dry and moist parts of the PBL in a unified mannerand it combines an adjusted eddy-diffusivity PBL scheme from GEOS with a stochasticmulti-plume mass-flux model. The new EDMF version of the GEOS model is first com-pared against the CONTROL version in a single-column model (SCM) framework for twobenchmark cases representing subtropical stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds, andvalidated against large eddy simulations. Global simulations are performed and comparedagainst observations and reanalysis data. The results show that the EDMF version of theGEOS model produces more realistic subtropical PBL clouds. Noteworthy, the EDMF im-provements first detected in the SCM framework translate into similar improvements of theglobal GEOS model.

Kay Suselj↗

NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology on the Long-Range Transport of Indochina Biomass Burning Aerosols

Impacts of long-range transported biomass burning aerosols from northern Indochina on regional air quality, atmospheric visibility, and climate effects have been discussed extensively in the literature over the past decade. However, the mechanism between aerosol transport and the low-level jet (LLJ) in synoptic meteorology dynamics (e.g., the frontal system) is still not fully understood. In this study, we present results of aerosol-LLJ interaction based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application version 2 (NASA/MERRA-2) dataset simultaneous to field campaigns in spring 2013–2015 over Southeast Asia. For linking the atmospheric circulation to aerosol transport, a general meteorological condition favorable for aerosol transport is demonstrated. Biomass burning aerosol accumulation over the source region (i.e., northern Indochina) coincided with weak westerly system over the northern South China Sea, and as the synoptic weather system evolved, the aerosols were transported to downwind regions (i.e., Taiwan and West Pacific) by a cold front and LLJ dynamics. The MERRA-2 reanalysis data show the postcold front accompanied a LLJ stream at approximately 700 hPa (3 km) and accelerated the haze plume transport eastward with a life cycle of approximately 3–5 days, an event that reoccurred multiple times from March to April. Our results indicate that coexistence of LLJ and a South China Sea anticyclone at 700 hPa, which primarily could drive the mechanism behind these transport events. Furthermore, more observational data from Southeast Asia would greatly benefit studies of aerosol-meteorology interactions in the region.

Hsiang-Yu Huang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands Stability through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been inoperation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitoredthrough inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral or multi-spectral infraredsensors or through vicarious monitoring over cold targets such as Dome-C and deep convectiveclouds. The radiative transfer modeling (RTM)-based simulation models are developed to per-form the long-term monitoring of the stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs. Long-term EuropeanCentre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global atmospheric reanalysis data are used asinputs to the RTM simulation. By confining ocean in low to middle latitudes as the area ofinterest, the long-term stabilities of Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through observationminus background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements andsimulations from the RTM. In general, the RTM-based O-B analysis shows that the long-termstability of Aqua MODIS TEBs are maintained well. It is shown that Aqua MODIS surfacebands are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drifts <0.005 K∕yearfor B20, B22,and B23 and∼0.01 K∕yearfor B31 and B32. The carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption channelsof Aqua MODIS, e.g., B33 to B36, are stable with a BT bias drift <0.005 K∕year. It is also foundthat after accounting for the long-term growth of greenhouse gasN2O, the O-B bias trends forB24 and B25 are quite stable with yearly BT bias drifts around 0.0002 and0.0055 K∕year,respectively. The stabilities of the moisture-sensitive channels B27 to B29 and the ozone channelB30 of Aqua MODIS are also evaluated and the remnant small variations in the O-B bias trend-ing of these channels are further discussed. The RTM-based inter-comparison of MODIS TEBmeasurements with global atmospheric and climate re-analysis data provides validation of thelong-term radiometric stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs. The analysis in this paper also demon-strates that the comparison of well-calibrated MODIS TEB measurements with RTM simulationhelps quantify the long-term impacts of global greenhouse gas concentration growth on the BTdecreases in the MODIS greenhouse gas-sensitive channels.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Relationship between circum-Arctic atmospheric wave patterns and large-scale wildfires in boreal summer

Long-term assessment of severe wildfires and associated air pollution and related climate patterns in and around the Arctic is essential for assessing healthy human life status. To examine the relationships, we analyzed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our investigation based on this state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data reveals that 13 out of the 20 months with the highest PM2.5 (corresponding to the highly elevated organic carbon in the particulate organic matter [POM] form) monthly mean mass concentration over the Arctic for 2003–2017 were all in summer (July and August), during which POM of ⩾0.5 μg/cu. m and PM2.5 were positively correlated. This correlation suggests that high PM2.5 in the Arctic is linked to large wildfire contributions and characterized by significant anticyclonic anomalies (i.e. clockwise atmospheric circulation) with anomalous surface warmth and drier conditions over Siberia and subpolar North America, in addition to Europe. A similar climate pattern was also identified through an independent regression analysis for the July and August mean data between the same atmospheric variables and the sign-reversed Scandinavian pattern index. We named this pattern of recent atmospheric circulation anomalies the circum-Arctic wave (CAW) pattern as a manifestation of eastward group-velocity propagation of stationary Rossby waves (i.e. large-scale atmospheric waves). The CAW induces concomitant development of warm anticyclonic anomalies over Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, as observed in late June 2019. Surprisingly, the extended regression analysis of the 1980–2017 period revealed that the CAW pattern was not prominent before 2003. Understanding the CAW pattern under future climate change and global warming would lead to better prediction of co-occurrences of European heatwaves and large-scale wildfires with air pollution over Siberia, Alaska, and Canada in and around the Arctic in summer.

wildfire↗

NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Variations in the Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Precipitation as Represented by IMERG, ERA5, and Spaceborne Ku Radar

The diurnal cycle of precipitation is highly regional and is typically a product of multiple competing effects that can be highly localized. The diurnal cycle in high precipitation regions such as the Amazon and the Maritime Continent are of particular interest, especially due to the complex coastal effects which take place over the Maritime Continent. The high spatial and temporal resolution provided by the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) dataset, is used in this study to examine the fine-scale features of the diurnal cycle in these regions. Using an 18-year (2000 – 2018) record of IMERG precipitation observations, diurnal and semidiurnal phase and amplitude are calculated using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) method on precipitation averaged for each half-hour of the day at 0.1°x0.1° spatial resolution. We first introduce an objective method of identifying locations where the diurnal signals are robust and strong. Clear patterns of precipitation phase propagation with distance from shore are shown over both regions, with the diurnal phase and amplitude exhibiting a strong dependence on the distance from the coastline. Semidiurnal cycles are generally weaker than the diurnal cycle except in some isolated locations. Similar analysis is also conducted on the ERA5 reanalysis data in order to evaluate the model’s representation of the precipitation diurnal cycle. The model captures the broad scale patterns of diurnal variability but does not capture all the fine scale patterns nor the exact timing that is observed by IMERG. Comparisons are also made to a long record Ku radar dataset created by combining Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM observations, thus providing an additional point of comparison for the timing of the ERA5 precipitation peak, since the timing precipitation can be different, even in between observational datasets.

L J Hayden↗

NASA NTRS2021

Quantitative Investigation of Radiometric Interactions between Snowfall, Snow Cover, and Cloud Liquid Water over Land

Falling snow alters its own microwave signatures when it begins to accumulate on the ground, making retrieval of snowfall challenging. This paper investigates the effects of snow-cover depth and cloud liquid water content on microwave signatures of terrestrial snowfall using reanalysis data and multi-annual observations by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite with particular emphasis on the 89 and 166 GHz channels. It is found that over shallow snow cover (snow water equivalent (SWE) ≤100 kg/sq. m) and low values of cloud liquid water path (LWP 100–150 g/sq. m), the scattering of light snowfall (intensities ≤0.5 mm/ h) is detectable only at frequency 166 GHz, while for higher snowfall rates, the signal can also be detected at 89 GHz. However, when SWE exceeds 200 kg/sq. m and the LWP is greater than 100–150 g/sq. m, the emission from the increased liquid water content in snowing clouds becomes the only surrogate microwave signal of snowfall that is stronger at frequency 89 than 166 GHz. The results also reveal that over high latitudes above 60°N where the SWE is greater than 200 kg/sq. m and LWP is lower than 100–150 g/sq. m, the snowfall microwave signal could not be detected with GPM without considering a priori data about SWE and LWP. Our findings provide quantitative insights for improving retrieval of snowfall in particular over snow-covered terrain.

Zeinab Takbiri↗

NASA NTRS2021

Gravity Wave Weakening During the 2019 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming

A rare Antarctic stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) occurred on August 30, 2019, and was a minor warming event. We investigated variations in gravity wave (GW) activity before and after this Antarctic SSW event using two satellite measurements (AIRS and CIPS) and reanalysis data (GEOS-5 FP). GW activity over the Andes decreased after August 30, although the westerly wind was 40–60 m/s and cannot filter out GWs with small zonal phase speed. This decline over the Andes was probably caused by wave saturation. Zonal mean GW activity over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean likewise decreased, with a weakening of zonal wind. The zonal mean GW activity further decreased around September 8 which coincided with a reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind at 40 km. The decline in the zonal mean GW activity after August 30 was probably caused by wind filtering and polar night jet breaking.

Gravity waves↗

NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Vulnerability of Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals to Physical Properties of Snowpack: A Perspective from Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory

The uncertainty of passive microwave retrievals of snowfall is notoriously high where the high-frequency surface emissivity is significantly reduced and varies markedly in response to changes of snowpack physical properties. Using the dense media radiative transfer theory, this article studies the potential effects of terrestrial snow-cover depth, density, and6grain size on high-frequency channels 89 and 166 GHz of the radiometer onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite, which are commonly used to capture the snowfall scattering signals. Integrating the inference across all feasible grain sizes, ranges of snowpack density and depth are identified over which the snowfall scattering signatures can be time varying and potentially obscured. Using 10 years of reanalysis data, the seasonal vulnerability of snowfall retrievals to changes of snowpack emissivity in the Northern Hemisphere is mapped in a probabilistic sense and connections are made with uncertainties of the GPM passive microwave snowfall retrievals. It is found that among different snow classes, relatively light Arctic tundra snow in fall, with a density below 260kg m−3, and shallow prairie snow during the winter, with a depth of less than 40cm, can reduce the surface emissivity and obscure the snowfall passive microwave signatures. It is demonstrated that, during the winter, the highly vulnerable areas are over Kazakhstan, and Mongolia with taiga and prairie snow. In the fall, these areas are largely over tundra and taiga snow in north of Russia and the Arctic Archipelagos as well as prairies in Canada and the Great Plains in the United States.

Reyhaneh Rahimi↗

NASA NTRS2023

Surface Shortwave Radiative Fluxes Derived from the U.S. Air Force Cloud Depiction Forecast System World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis

We present a global-scale evaluation of surface shortwave (SW↓) radiative fluxes as derived with cloud amount information from the U.S. Air Force (USAF) Cloud Depiction Forecast System (CDFS) II World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA) and implemented in the framework of the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Evaluation of this product is done against ground observations, a satellite-based product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and several reanalysis outputs. While the LIS/USAF product tends to overestimate the SW↓ fluxes when compared to ground observations and satellite estimates, its performance is comparable or better than the following reanalysis products: ERA5, CFSR, and MERRA-2. Results are presented using all available observations over the globe and independently for several regional domains of interest. When evaluated against ground observations over the globe, the bias in the LIS/USAF product at daily time scale was about 9.34 W m −2 and the RMS was 29.20 W m −2 while over the United States the bias was about 10.65 W m −2 and the RMS was 35.31 W m −2 . The sample sizes used were not uniform over the different regions, and the quality of both ground truth and the outputs of the other products may vary regionally. It is important to note that the LIS/USAF is a near-real-time (NRT) product of interest for potential users and as such fills a need that is not met by most products. Due to latency issues, the level of observational inputs in the NRT product is less than in the reanalysis data.

Cloud radiative effects↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗