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DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of cooling setpoint setback savings in commercial buildings using electricity and exterior temperature time series data

Commercial buildings account for a significant amount of total energy produced in the US, and the Heating Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) systems are one of the most significant components of their overall consumption. In this study, we proposed a new data-driven approach to evaluate HVAC cooling systems in commercial buildings and identify savings opportunities. The focus is an investigation of the impact of thermostat setpoint setback but using only whole building, electricity data taken at 15-min intervals for the analysis. We conducted a comparative study of setpoint setback characteristics on 432 commercial buildings with 5 building usage types across the United States. To accomplish this, both piecewise and Random Forest regression algorithms were employed using electricity and exterior temperature datasets to identify operational characteristics and the effective setpoints in the building to determine the corresponding savings opportunities. Both occupied and unoccupied time periods were studied across cooling degree days (CDD), when air conditioning is typically operational. Here the results show that in commercial buildings, on average, cooling systems account for 9.5% of total consumption. When a one degree setback during the cooling season is applied, an average of approximately 1.1% of annual consumption is achieved; retail and office buildings demonstrate the highest potential for savings. Additionally, we identified that the number of cooling degree days and base to peak ratio (BPR) are the most important variables for predicting the magnitude of the consumption of cooling systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Short-Depth QAOA circuits and Quantum Annealing on Higher-Order Ising Models (Rev.2)

The Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) and Quantum Annealing (QA) are quantum algorithms that are both based on the adiabatic theorem and both have the goal of sampling the optimal solution(s) of combinatorial optimization problems. Quantum annealing has been physically instantiated on D-Wave devices using superconducting flux qubits, and QAOA can be programmed on digital gate-model quantum computers such as the programmable superconducting transmon qubits devices of the IBMQ series, for instance ibm washington. QAOA and QA address the same types of problems, but it is unclear how they will scale to large problem sizes and to larger and higher-fidelity quantum computers. In this article, we present a direct comparison between QAOA, one and two rounds, run on all 127 qubits of ibm washington and QA run on D-Wave Advantage system4.1 and Advantage system6.1. The problems which allow for this comparison are random Ising model problems whose connectivity matches the heavy hexagonal lattice topology of ibm washington and the Pegasus graph connectivity of the two D-Wave devices. We create two classes of problem instances for this comparison: one with higher order terms (ZZZ variable interactions), linear terms, and quadratic terms, and a separate problem type with only linear and quadratic terms. Our QAOA circuits are novel and extremely short depth, with a CNOT depth of 6 per round, which allows whole chip usage of ibm washington’s heavy hexagonal lattice and can be applied to future heavy-hex chips. We also test the effectiveness of the error suppression technique digital dynamical decoupling on the QAOA circuits. The QAOA circuits compiled to ibm washington are composed of several thousand circuit instructions, approximately 3, 000 depending on the details of the circuit, making these some the largest quantum circuits ever executed on a digital quantum processor. QAOA and QA are compared against the classical heuristic algorithm of simulated annealing and all problem instances are exactly solved using CPLEX in order to evaluate which samplers, if any, correctly found the ground state solution(s) of the problem instances. We find that (i) QA outperforms QAOA on all problem instances, (ii) QAOA samples the problems better than random sampling, and (iii) QAOA angle computation exhibits clear parameter concentration across the ensemble of Ising models.

127 Qubits↗

DOE OSTI2020

3D Printable Polymers for Radiological Applications

Additive manufacturing of polymers is a widely used and growing technology throughout the DOE complex. Composite filaments for Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) printers are commonly used to enhance material properties such as mechanical strength, operating temperature and chemical resistance. Radio luminescent properties were added to 3D filaments by impregnating clear poly(ethylene terephthalate)-glycol (PETG) with X-ray scintillator powder. X-ray scintillators have unique, narrow emission spectra which can be imaged with low light DSLR cameras, photomultiplier tubes, or spectrometers. Filament Production: 1. Pellets are loaded into the hopper. 2. Temperature and extrusion speed are set on extruder. 3. Extruder turned on and filament is pulled from nozzle along air path to cool. 4. Spooler drive speeds set. 5. Filament is inserted through Filameasure then guided along drive wheels and into traverse. 6. Parameters adjusted to obtain 1.75 mm diameter 7. Filament is inserted into spooler wheel. Traverse speed set and slip nut adjusted to make tight and even roll. From Raw Materials to Printed Part: Clear PETG pellets were dipped in ZnS:Cu scintillator powder to coat pellets. Coated and uncoated pellets were mixed together before inserting into hopper. Filament showed trace amounts of powder and luminesced under UV light. Powder distribution is random and not reproducible thus providing a unique identification marker potentially useful for national security applications. Multiple X-ray scintillators can be arranged in a panel to discriminate incident X-ray photon energies. Variable panel arrangement: pixelated, layered, solid from homogenous filament. Ratio of emission intensities. Response varies with incident photon energy. Spectrally separate scintillators. Scintillators: Yttrium Oxide Europium Doped - Red, Gadolinium Oxysulfide Terbium Doped - Green, Barium Magnesium Aluminate Europium Doped - Blue, Zinc Sulfide Copper Doped - Green. Powder concentrations will need to be increased in the filament for use in the energy discriminating panel. Homogeneity in the filament will be a challenge that can be solved by turning the pellets into a powder and mixing it with scintillator powder prior to extrusion. The panels will be tested using x-ray booths and button sources such as Am-241, Cs-137, and Co-60.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical variability of quasars with 20-yr photometric light curves

ABSTRACT We study the optical gri photometric variability of a sample of 190 quasars within the SDSS Stripe 82 region that have long-term photometric coverage during ∼1998−2020 with SDSS, PanSTARRS-1, the Dark Energy Survey, and dedicated follow-up monitoring with Blanco 4m/DECam. With on average ∼200 nightly epochs per quasar per filter band, we improve the parameter constraints from a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model fit to the light curves over previous studies with 10–15 yr baselines and ≲ 100 epochs. We find that the average damping time-scale τDRW continues to rise with increased baseline, reaching a median value of ∼750 d (g band) in the rest frame of these quasars using the 20-yr light curves. Some quasars may have gradual, long-term trends in their light curves, suggesting that either the DRW fit requires very long baselines to converge, or that the underlying variability is more complex than a single DRW process for these quasars. Using a subset of quasars with better-constrained τDRW (less than 20 per cent of the baseline), we confirm a weak wavelength dependence of τDRW∝λ0.51 ± 0.20. We further quantify optical variability of these quasars over days to decades time-scales using structure function (SF) and power spectrum density (PSD) analyses. The SF and PSD measurements qualitatively confirm the measured (hundreds of days) damping time-scales from the DRW fits. However, the ensemble PSD is steeper than that of a DRW on time-scales less than ∼ a month for these luminous quasars, and this second break point correlates with the longer DRW damping time-scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Page curves and typical entanglement in linear optics

Bosonic Gaussian states are a special class of quantum states in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space that are relevant to universal continuous-variable quantum computation as well as to near-term quantum sampling tasks such as Gaussian Boson Sampling. In this work, we study entanglement within a set of squeezed modes that have been evolved by a random linear optical unitary. We first derive formulas that are asymptotically exact in the number of modes for the Rényi-2 Page curve (the average Rényi-2 entropy of a subsystem of a pure bosonic Gaussian state) and the corresponding Page correction (the average information of the subsystem) in certain squeezing regimes. We then prove various results on the typicality of entanglement as measured by the Rényi-2 entropy by studying its variance. Using the aforementioned results for the Rényi-2 entropy, we upper and lower bound the von Neumann entropy Page curve and prove certain regimes of entanglement typicality as measured by the von Neumann entropy. Our main proofs make use of a symmetry property obeyed by the average and the variance of the entropy that dramatically simplifies the averaging over unitaries. In this light, we propose future research directions where this symmetry might also be exploited. We conclude by discussing potential applications of our results and their generalizations to Gaussian Boson Sampling and to illuminating the relationship between entanglement and computational complexity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz for Satisfiability Problems

Here, we comparatively study, through large-scale numerical simulation, the performance across a large set of Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) implementations for finding approximate and optimum solutions to unconstrained combinatorial optimization problems. Our survey includes over 100 different mixing unitaries, and we combine each mixer with both the standard phase separator unitary representing the objective function and a thresholded version. Our numerical tests for randomly chosen instances of the unconstrained optimization problems Max 2-SAT and Max 3-SAT reveal that the traditional transverse-field mixer with the standard phase separator performs best for problem sizes of 8 through 14 variables, while the recently introduced Grover mixer with thresholding wins at problems of size 6. This result (i) corrects earlier work suggesting that the Grover mixer is a superior mixer based only on results from problems of size 6, thus illustrating the need to push numerical simulation to larger problem sizes to more accurately predict performance; and (ii) it suggests that more complicated mixers and phase separators may not improve QAOA performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of an Ensemble Approach for Modeling Aerosol‐Convection Interactions

Aerosol-convection interactions modulate cloud microphysics, thermodynamics, and updraft intensity, contributing to climate-scale aerosol-radiative forcing. However, quantifying aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase deep convection remains challenging due to uncertainties in parameterized physics and initial conditions driving nonlinear evolution of convective processes. This study investigates the convective updraft sensitivity to random initial temperature perturbations using an idealized ensemble modeling framework informed by in situ thermodynamic and aerosol observations from the DOE TRACER field campaign. We analyze the impact of small-scale initial perturbations on updraft velocity and supersaturation, and determine the ensemble size required to minimize stochastic internal variability. Results show that minor thermodynamic perturbations can produce updraft variability comparable to aerosol-induced changes reported in prior work. An ensemble of 10 members sufficiently reduces variability, enabling robust investigation of aerosol-related updraft invigoration and informing the design of future ensemble-based aerosol-convection interaction studies in environments with significant spatiotemporal mesoscale thermodynamic and aerosol heterogeneity.

aerosol-convection interactions↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Minimizing thickness variation in monolithic U-10Mo fuel foil and Zr interlayer during hot rolling: A microstructure-based finite element method analysis

Low-enriched uranium alloyed with 10 wt. % molybdenum (U-10Mo) has been identified as a promising alternative to highly enriched uranium fuel for the United States’ high performance research reactors. The monolithic U-10Mo fuel plate consists of a metallic U-10Mo fuel foil with a 25 µm Zr interlayer and a relatively thick cladding of aluminum alloy 6061. The Zr interlayer is typically applied during the hot co-rolling process, and this process dictates the uniformity of the Zr interlayer. Thickness variation observed in the U-10Mo and Zr interlayer has been attributed to several sources: the initial grain size of the U-10Mo castings, can materials, rolling temperature, inhomogeneous molybdenum content, and porosity in the cast U-10Mo. This thickness variation limits the ability to meet the dimensional specification; thus, a better understanding of the factors causing the nonuniform thickness is needed. In this work, we used a novel, microstructure-based finite element method to model the hot rolling process to address these concerns. Grain microstructures in U-10Mo were tessellated and explicitly considered in the finite element model. Each grain was assigned a random material property to mimic the grain strength variations induced by different grain orientations. Simulations were performed using six steel can thicknesses, four grain sizes, and with or without a Zr interlayer to investigate the influences of those variables on the thickness nonuniformity. The simulation results showed that a thinner steel can and finer U-10Mo grain size reduce thickness variations in both the U-10Mo fuel foil and Zr interlayer. The direct findings from the simulations and analysis can be used to optimize the hot rolling schedule, reduce fabrication defects, and meet the dimensional specifications. The proposed microstructure-based finite element model can be also coupled with experimental microstructure characterization data, images, and models to simulate multi-pass hot rolling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Achievable Rates for Concatenated Square Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill Codes

The Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) codes are known to achieve optimal rates under displacement noise and pure-loss channels, which establishes theoretical foundations for its optimality. However, such optimal rates are only known to be achieved at a discrete set of noise strengths with the current self-dual symplectic lattice construction. In this work, we develop a new coding strategy using concatenated continuous variable-discrete variable encodings to go beyond past results and establish GKP’s optimal rate over all noise strengths. In particular, for displacement noise, the rate is obtained through a constructive approach by concatenating GKP codes with a quantum polar code and analog decoding. For a pure-loss channel, we prove the existence of capacity-achieving GKP codes through a random coding approach. These results highlight the capability of concatenation-based GKP codes and provides new methods for constructing good GKP lattices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Performance Semiempirical Excited-State Molecular Dynamics Powered by Graphics Processing Units

Here, this Letter introduces excited-state molecular dynamics in PYSEQM, a GPU-accelerated semiempirical quantum chemistry engine implemented in PyTorch. The new module enables Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) using configuration-interaction singles and random phase approximation for excited states, allowing long trajectories and large statistical ensembles to be simulated efficiently on a single GPU. We also implement an extended Lagrangian excited-state BOMD (XL-ESMD) scheme that propagates auxiliary electronic variables, enabling relaxed ground and excited-state convergence thresholds without compromising energy conservation. The excited-state BOMD implementation scales smoothly from small chromophores to a nearly 900-atom dendrimer (taking 6.5 s per MD step). PYSEQM also supports batched execution, allowing many geometries or trajectories to be evaluated in a single GPU launch, substantially increasing throughput and making ensemble-based protocols routine. As a demonstration, we compute absorption, emission, and infrared spectra from trajectories propagated on the ground and first excited states. The XL-ESMD scheme yields identical spectra at significantly lower computational cost, establishing the role of extended Lagrangian based dynamics for efficient excited-state BOMD simulations. Beyond raw performance, PYSEQM’s PyTorch foundation provides automatic differentiation for forces, efficient GPU batching, and seamless interfacing with machine learning models. These capabilities position PYSEQM as a practical platform for machine learning-augmented excited-state dynamics and lay the foundation for future data-driven nonadiabatic excited-state dynamics modeling of ultrafast spectroscopic probes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Zonal Reserve Requirements for Improved Energy Deliverability with Wind Power

In power systems with high penetration of renewable energy resources, uncertainty and variability of these stochastic resources introduce additional challenges for the operation of power systems. To improve the power system's reliability in the face of uncertainty, reserves are required as additional generation capacity to rebalance the power system following random disturbances. However, reserve deliverability is not guaranteed, because it may encounter potential transmission line congestion. Zonal reserve requirements can address this issue, but operators lack efficient ways to allocate reserves to zones while accounting for wind power forecast uncertainty. Herein we propose a methodology for probabilistic zonal reserve requirements to address wind power forecast uncertainties. This method estimates the probability distribution of line flows based on the system generation margin and injection shift factor. This estimate is then used to construct pre-defined and post-zonal reserve requirements. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method efficiently schedules energy and reserves to balance energy and manage deliverability with wind power forecast uncertainty.We also discuss operational implications of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accounting for uncertainty sources in pyrometric measurements: Variables affecting Surface Temperature measurements using the LLNL Streak Spectrometers

Here we present a detailed analysis of the error sensitivities of the LLNL temperature analysis package used in analyzing streak spectrometer data. These sensitivities include noise, temperature, wavelength, emissivity, missing bands, and missing data points. The analysis package was tested for its ability to accurately reconstruct randomly generated noisy data and found to perform within specifications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗