An analytical basis for time-modulated random vibration testing
Approximated maximal vibratory response of linear excited system to time modulated stationary random vibration
Hasselman, T. K.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Random Systems”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Optimal estimation for the satellite attitude using star tracker measurements
An optimal estimation scheme is presented, which determines the satellite attitude using the gyro readings and the star tracker measurements of a commonly used satellite attitude measuring unit. The scheme is mainly based on the exponential Fourier densities that have the desirable closure property under conditioning. By updating a finite and fixed number of parameters, the conditional probability density, which is an exponential Fourier density, is recursively determined. Simulation results indicate that the scheme is more accurate and robust than extended Kalman filtering. It is believed that this approach is applicable to many other attitude measuring units. As no linearization and approximation are necessary in the approach, it is ideal for systems involving high levels of randomness and/or low levels of observability and systems for which accuracy is of overriding importance.
Lo, J. T.-H.↗
Local modeling for FRF estimation with noisy input measurements
The frequency response function (FRF) is an essential means by which dynamic systems are qualified. In recent years, local modeling approaches have been extensively researched and shown to significantly outperform traditional FRF estimators. However, the standard local modeling approach assumes a perfectly-known system input, which results in biased FRF estimates in the presence of input noise. This paper derives a simple adjustment that can be used to improve FRF estimation for systems subjected to random excitation with noisy input data. This improvement can be implemented with little modification to standard local modeling algorithms and with little additional computational burden. The adjustment is coupled with a model selection procedure to avoid underfitting and overfitting. In conclusion, the methods presented in this paper are validated on a simulation, and they are shown to reduce bias due to input noise.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture
Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.
Stephanie Y Zhu↗
A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration
The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Boost of the Bio-memristor Performance for Artificial Electronic Synapses by Surface Reconstruction
Biomaterial-based memristors (bio-memristors) are often adopted to emulate biological synapse functions and applied to construct neural computing networks in brain-inspired chip systems. However, the randomness of conductive filament formation in bio-memristors inhibits their switching performance by causing the dispersion of the device-switching parameters. In this case, a facile porous silk fibroin (p-SF) memristor was obtained through a protein surface reconstruction strategy, in which the size of the hole can be adjusted by the density of hybrid nanoseeds. Here, the porous SF memristors exhibit greatly enhanced electrical characteristics, including uniform I-V cycles, centralized distribution of the switching voltages, and both high and low resistances, compared to devices without pores. The results of three-dimensional (3D) simulations based on classical density functional theory (cDFT) suggest that the reconstructed pores in the SF layers guide the formation and fracture of Ag filaments under an electric field and enhance the overall conductivity by separating Ag + ion and electron diffusion pathways. Ag + ions are predicted to preferentially diffuse through pores, whereas electrons diffuse through the SF network. Interestingly, the device conductance can be bidirectionally modulated gradually by positive and negative voltages, can faithfully simulate short-term and long-term plasticity, and can even realize the triplet-spike-timing-dependent plasticity (triplet-STDP) rule, which can be used for pattern recognition in biological systems. The simulation results reveal that a memristor network of this type has an accuracy of ~95.78% in memory learning and the capability of pattern learning. This work provides a facile technology route to improve the performance of bionic-material memristors.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Melting, reentrant ordering and peak effect for Wigner crystals with quenched and thermal disorder
Abstract We consider simulations of Wigner crystals in solid state systems interacting with random quenched disorder in the presence of thermal fluctuations. When quenched disorder is absent, there is a well defined melting temperature determined by the proliferation of topological defects, while for zero temperature, there is a critical quenched disorder strength above which topological defects proliferate. When both thermal and quenched disorder are present, these effects compete, and the thermal fluctuations can reduce the effectiveness of the quenched disorder, leading to a reentrant ordered phase in agreement with the predictions of Nelson (1983 Phys. Rev. B 27 2902–14). There are two competing theories for the low temperature behavior, and our simulations show that both capture aspects of the actual response. The critical disorder strength separating ordered from disordered states remains finite as the temperature goes to zero, as predicted by Cha and Fertig (1995 Phys. Rev. Lett. 74 4867–70), instead of dropping to zero as predicted by Nelson. At the same time, the critical disorder strength decreases with decreasing temperature, as predicted by Nelson, instead of remaining constant, as predicted by Cha and Fertig. The onset of the reentrant phase can be deduced based on changes in the transport response, where the reentrant ordering appears as an increase in the mobility or the occurrence of a depinning transition. We also find that when the system is in the ordered state and thermally melts, there is an increase in the effective damping or pinning. This produces a drop in the electron mobility that is similar to the peak effect phenomenon found in superconducting vortices, where thermal effects soften the lattice or break down its elasticity, allowing the particles to better adjust their positions to take full advantage of the quenched disorder.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems
Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).
autoregressive prediction↗
Folded network and structural transition in molten tin
The fundamental relationships between the structure and properties of liquids are far from being well understood. For instance, the structural origins of many liquid anomalies still remain unclear, but liquid-liquid transitions (LLT) are believed to hold a key. However, experimental demonstrations of LLTs have been rather challenging. Here, we report experimental and theoretical evidence of a second-order-like LLT in molten tin, one which favors a percolating covalent bond network at high temperatures. The observed structural transition originates from the fluctuating metallic/covalent behavior of atomic bonding, and consequently a new paradigm of liquid structure emerges. The liquid structure, described in the form of a folded network, bridges two well-established structural models for disordered systems, i.e., the random packing of hard-spheres and a continuous random network, offering a large structural midground for liquids and glasses. Our findings provide an unparalleled physical picture of the atomic arrangement for a plethora of liquids, shedding light on the thermodynamic and dynamic anomalies of liquids but also entailing far-reaching implications for studying liquid polyamorphism and dynamical transitions in liquids.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Many-body localization near the critical point
Here, we examine the many-body localization (MBL) phase transition in one-dimensional quantum systems with quenched randomness and short-range interactions. Following recent works, we use a strong-randomness renormalization group (RG) approach where the phase transition is due to the so-called avalanche instability of the MBL phase. We show that the critical behavior can be determined analytically within this RG. On a rough qualitative level the RG flow near the critical fixed point is similar to the Kosterlitz-Thouless (KT) flow as previously shown, but there are important differences in the critical behavior. Thus, we show that this MBL transition is in a universality class that is different from KT. The divergence of the correlation length corresponds to critical exponent $\textit{ν → ∞}$, but the divergence is weaker than for the KT transition.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
PowerNet: Multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Scalable Powergrid Control
This paper develops an efficient multi-agent deep reinforcement learning algorithm for cooperative controls in powergrids. Specifically, we consider the decentralized inverter-based secondary voltage control problem in distributed generators (DGs), which is first formulated as a cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problem. We then propose a novel on-policy MARL algorithm, PowerNet, in which each agent (DG) learns a control policy based on (sub-)global reward but local states and encoded communication messages from its neighbors. Motivated by the fact that a local control from one agent has limited impact on agents distant from it, we exploit a novel spatial discount factor to reduce the effect from remote agents, to expedite the training process and improve scalability. Furthermore, a differentiable, learning-based communication protocol is employed to foster the collaborations among neighboring agents. In addition, to mitigate the effects of system uncertainty and random noise introduced during on-policy learning, we utilize an action smoothing factor to stabilize the policy execution. To facilitate training and evaluation, we develop PGSim, an efficient, high-fidelity powergrid simulation platform. Here, experimental results in two microgrid setups show that the developed PowerNet outperforms the conventional model-based control method, as well as several state-of-the-art MARL algorithms. The decentralized learning scheme and high sample efficiency also make it viable to large-scale power grids.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific ML
The intricate interactions between data sampling, model selection and the inherent randomness in complex systems strongly emphasize the need for a rigorous characterization of ML algorithms. In conventional statistics, uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides this characterization by measuring how accurately a model reflects the physical reality and by studying the impact of different error sources on the prediction.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Stress Intensity Thresholds for Development of Reliable Brittle Materials
Brittle material failure in high consequence systems can appear random and unpredictable at subcritical stresses. Gaps in our understanding of how structural flaws and environmental factors (humidity, temperature) impact fracture propagation need to be addressed to circumvent this issue. A combined experimental and computational approach composed of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, numerical modeling, and atomic force microscopy (AFM) has been undertaken to identify mechanisms of slow crack growth in silicate glasses. AFM characterization of crack growth as slow as 10 -13 m/s was observed, with some stepwise crack growth. MD simulations have identified the critical role of inelastic relaxation in crack propagation, including evolution of the structure during relaxation. A numerical model for the existence of a stress intensity threshold, a stress intensity below which a fracture will not propagate, was developed. This transferrable model for predicting slow crack growth is being incorporated into mission-based programs.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Dual-unitary shadow tomography
We introduce a classical shadow tomography scheme based on dual-unitary brick-wall circuits termed "dual-unitary shadow tomography" (DUST). For this we study operator spreading and Pauli weight dynamics in one-dimensional qubit systems, evolved by random two-local dual-unitary gates arranged in a brick-wall structure, ending with a final measurement layer. We do this by deriving general constraints on the Pauli weight transfer matrix and specializing to the case of dual-unitarity. We first show that dual-unitaries must have a minimal amount of entropy production. Remarkably, we find that operator spreading in these circuits have a rich structure resembling that of relativistic quantum field theories, with massless chiral excitations that can decay or fuse into each other, which we call left- or right-movers. We develop a mean-field description of the Pauli weight in terms of $\rho(x,t)$, which represents the probability of having nontrivial support at site $x$ and depth $t$ starting from a fixed weight distribution. We develop an equation of state for $\rho(x,t)$, and simulate it numerically using Monte Carlo simulations. Lastly, we demonstrate that the fast-thermalizing properties of dual-unitary circuits make them better at predicting large operators than shallow brick-wall Clifford circuits. Our results are robust to finite-size effects due to the chirality of dual-unitary brick-wall circuits.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Design, Selection, and Evaluation of Reinforcement Learning Single Agents for Ground Target Tracking
Previous approaches for small fixed-wing unmanned air systems that carry strapdown rather than gimbaled cameras achieved satisfactory ground target tracking performance using both standard and deep reinforcement learning algorithms. However, these approaches have significant restrictions and abstractions to the dynamics of the vehicle, such as constant airspeed and constant altitude, because the number of states and actions was necessarily limited. Thus, extensive tuning was required to obtain good tracking performance. The expansion from 4 state–action degrees of freedom to 15 enabled the agent to exploit previous reward functions that produced novel yet undesirable emergent behavior. This paper investigates the causes of and various potential solutions to undesirable emergent behavior in the ground target tracking problem. A combination of changes to the environment, reward structure, action space simplification, command rate, and controller implementation provides insight into obtaining stable tracking results. Consideration is given to reward structure selection and refinement to mitigate undesirable emergent behavior. Results presented in the paper for a simulated environment of a single unmanned air system tracking a randomly moving single ground target show that a soft actor–critic algorithm can produce feasible tracking trajectories without limiting the state space and action space, provided that the environment is properly posed.
Engineering↗
Direct synthesis of optimal linear filter from conditional probability concepts
State of randomly excited dynamical system estimated from noise measurements having finite duration, and optimal linear filter synthesized from conditional probability theory
EXCITED STATE↗
EBW firing unit and detonator compatibility investigation.
EBW firing unit-detonator interface compatibility measured to determine total system reliability for randomly paired production units
Amicone, R. G.↗
Optimal stochastic control.
Optimal stochastic control of small dynamic systems described by random differential equations, noting selective bibliography on several subjects
Wonham, W. M.↗