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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16

Plateau to River Model Predictive Simulations for All Ensemble Realizations to Support Modeling Work in Fiscal Year 2025

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document predictions of flow and hydraulic head on the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site using the Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model (CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau-to-River Model: Version 9.1). This calculation documents the simulation of the groundwater for the parent model domain of the P2R Model as a basis for use in other applications of the P2R Model. This application is unique from the standpoint that it will simulate all ensemble member models of the P2R Model whereas other applications may only utilize specific ensemble members. These simulations provide results that can be used in the process of selecting an appropriate subset of ensemble members for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Standard Model prediction of the Bc lifetime

Applying an operator product expansion approach we update the Standard Model prediction of the B c lifetime from over 20 years ago. The non-perturbative velocity expansion is carried out up to third order in the relative velocity of the heavy quarks. The scheme dependence is studied using three different mass schemes for the b ¯ and c quarks, resulting in three different values consistent with each other and with experiment. Special focus has been laid on renormalon cancellation in the computation. Uncertainties resulting from scale dependence, neglecting the strange quark mass, non-perturbative matrix elements and parametric uncertainties are discussed in detail. The resulting uncertainties are still rather large compared to the experimental ones, and therefore do not allow for clear-cut conclusions concerning New Physics effects in the B c decay.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Superconvergence of Online Optimization for Model Predictive Control

We develop a one-Newton-step-per-horizon, online, lag-L, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for solving discrete-time, equality-constrained, nonlinear dynamic programs. Based on recent sensitivity analysis results for the target problems class, we prove that the approach exhibits a behavior that we call superconvergence; that is, the tracking error with respect to the full horizon solution is not only stable for successive horizon shifts, but also decreases with increasing shift order to a minimum value that decays exponentially in the length of the receding horizon. The key analytical step is the decomposition of the one-step error recursion of our algorithm into algorithmic error and perturbation error. We show that the perturbation error decays exponentially with the lag between two consecutive receding horizons, while the algorithmic error, determined by Newton’s method, achieves quadratic convergence instead. Overall this approach induces our local exponential convergence result in terms of the receding horizon length for suitable values of L. In conclusion, numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Updating prediction models by dynamical relaxation - An examination of the technique

A dynamical relaxation technique for updating prediction models is analyzed with the help of the linear and nonlinear barotropic primitive equations. It is assumed that a complete four-dimensional time history of some prescribed subset of the meteorological variables is known. The rate of adaptation of the flow variables toward the true state is determined for a linearized f-model, and for mid-latitude and equatorial beta-plane models. The results of the analysis are corroborated by numerical experiments with the nonlinear shallow-water equations.

Davies, H. C.↗

Model predictive control of KSTAR equilibrium parameters enabled by TRANSP

Due to the complex behavior of tokamak plasmas and the importance of optimizing performance while avoiding instabilities and machine limits, plasma control algorithms are becoming increasingly dependent on sophisticated model-based control approaches. It is anticipated that the use of integrated modeling codes in the model-based control design process will reduce the amount of experimental time needed to implement new control algorithms by facilitating development of control-oriented models and enabling higher-fidelity closed-loop simulations. In this work, a reduced model is developed from a series of TRANSP simulations and is used to develop a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for controlling important equilibrium parameters in KSTAR [1] discharges. The control algorithm uses the KSTAR neutral beam injection system and the target plasma current and plasma boundary as actuators, and optimizes the plasma stored energy, loop voltage, and internal inductance while avoiding constraints that could lead to disruptions. Higher fidelity testing of the control algorithm is performed using a flexible framework for enabling external processes to actively control plasma parameters in TRANSP simulations. Furthermore, closed-loop simulations demonstrate the ability of the control algorithm to respond to disturbances in density and confinement, handle actuator failures, and move the discharge to high non-inductive fraction conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Model Predictive Control Approach for In-Flight Acoustic Constraint Compliance

Vehicle noise remains one of the major barriers to public acceptance of Urban Air Mobility-class aircraft. This work focuses on motion planning for aircraft in noise-sensitive areas. A nonlinear Model Predictive Path Integral~(MPPI) control law is used to generate a finite-horizon trajectory that satisfies acoustic level constraints at a set of observer locations. The MPPI framework places no restrictions on the class of state-dependent cost functionals that can be employed, making it well-suited for use with sophisticated acoustic models and metrics, in addition to dynamic and mission-relevant constraints. The proposed control law is also suitable for implementation in a real-time application. A simulation example demonstrates the ability of the controller to modify the flight trajectory in order to satisfy acoustic constraints at multiple measurement locations.

Aircraft motion planning↗

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

On the horizontal resolution of fronts in numerical weather prediction models

A two-dimensional model is used to study the ability of current numerical weather prediction models to capture frontogenesis and to determine frontal motion. Particular attention is given to the ability of a simulation with a very coarse grid to represent the dynamics of a frontogenetically-active model cold front in a simulation with a relatively fine grid. A resolution between 50 and 100 km is satisfactory for capturing frontal scale motions.

Reeder, Michael J.↗

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Toward Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning to improve Land Surface Model predictions

A critical challenge for Land Surface Models (LSMs) is to simulate processes at the surface and the subsurface and their feedbacks to the atmosphere. Even using the same climate forcings, different LSMs predict different surface fluxes and soil moisture conditions due to differences in the formulations of individual processes, parameterizations, and representation of spatial heterogeneity. Ultimately, these differences contribute to the LSM prediction errors and uncertainty. This research seeks to address this challenge by coupling physics-based modeling with state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to describe complex physical and biogeochemical processes and narrow the gap between model predictions and observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Explaining Multimodal Deceptive News Prediction Models

Social media plays a valuable role in rapid news dissemination, but it also serves as a vehicle to propagate unverified information. For example, news shared on Facebook or Twitter may actually contain disinformation, propaganda, hoaxes, conspiracies, clickbait or satire. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the behavior of suspicious news classification models including error analysis and prediction confidence. We consider five deep learning architectures that leverage combinations of text, linguistic and image input signals from tweets. The behavior of these models is analyzed across four suspicious news prediction tasks. Our findings include that models leveraging only the text of tweets outperform those leveraging only the image (by 3-13% absolute in F-measure), and that models that combine image and text signals with linguistic cues e.g., biased and subjective language markers can, but do not always, perform even better. Finally, our main contribution is a series of analyses, in which we characterize text and image traits of our classes of suspicious news and analyze patterns of errors made by the various models to inform the design of future deceptive news prediction models.

deep learning, social media, deception↗

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-set for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Application of real‐time nonlinear model predictive control for wave energy conversion

Abstract This article presents an approach to implement a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) in real‐time with a non‐standard cost index. The proposed technique's applications are presented to maximize the energy produced by a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) when the cost index is a non‐quadratic piecewise discontinuous functional of some design variables. The presented framework is based on pseudo‐quadratisation and weight scheduling, which is implemented using the ACADO toolkit for MATLAB/Simulink. The proposed strategy features code generation and deployment on the real‐time target machines for industrial applications. The simulations and experiments confirm the success of the proposed approach in achieving the feasible operation of the NMPC and an optimal power capture by the wave energy converters.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A Simplified Model Predictive Control Strategy for a Nine-Level Hybrid Multilevel Converter

This paper proposes a simplified model predictive control (SMPC) for a 9-level hybrid multilevel converter based on the active-neutral-point-clamped (ANPC) topology. The proposed SMPC firstly identifies the voltage vector that has optimal current tracking performance by a novel geometrical positioning approach in the complex plane, which can dramatically reduce the computational burden. Then it evaluates the switching states that are subject to the same voltage vector and selects the optimal switching state to balance the dc capacitor voltages. Both simulation and experimental results are carried out to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A lateral boundary formulation for multi-level prediction models

A method is proposed for treating the lateral boundaries of a limited-area weather prediction model. The method involves the relaxation of the interior flow in the vicinity of the boundary to the external fully prescribed flow. Analytical and numerical results obtained with a linearized multilevel model confirm the effectiveness of this computationally effective method. The method is shown to give an adequate representation of outgoing gravity waves with and without an ambient shear flow and to allow the substantially undistorted transmission of geostrophically balanced flow out of the interior of the limited domain.

Davies, H. C.↗

Partition-based Feasible Integer Solution Pre-computation for Hybrid Model Predictive Control

For multiparametric mixed-integer convex programming problems such as those encountered in hybrid model predictive control, we propose an algorithm for generating a feasible partition of a subset of the parameter space. The result is a static map from the current parameter to a suboptimal integer solution such that the remaining convex program is feasible. Convergence is proved with a new insight that the overlap among the feasible parameter sets of each integer solution governs the partition complexity. The partition is stored as a tree which makes querying the feasible solution efficient. The algorithm can be used to warm start a mixed integer solver with a real-time guarantee or to provide a reference integer solution in several suboptimal MPC schemes. The algorithm is tested on randomly generated systems with up to six states, demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach.

Bayard, David S.↗

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗