Automatic derivation of performance models for programs with data dependent behavior
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Mathematics and Computing↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Performance Modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling
Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.
bifacial↗
Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint
Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.
energy modeling↗
A Monte Carlo technique to model performance of streak-camera-based time-resolving x-ray spectrometers
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Physics - Plasma physics↗
Photovoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM) in Python and the Value of Monitoring.
Abstract not provided.
Lunis, Paul↗
An Efficient Annual-Performance Model of a Geothermal Network for Improved System Design, Operation, and Control: Preprint
Geothermal district energy systems (DES), and specifically geothermal networks, provide a viable solution for decarbonizing residential and commercial heating and cooling loads. District energy systems of all kinds enable a thermal resource with a relatively high capital cost (such as a geothermal borehole field) to be shared among a large number of users. While district heating and cooling has been studied for many years, geothermal networks, fifth generation DES that utilize water-source heat pumps and an ambient temperature loop to meet heating and cooling loads, have not been implemented extensively and thus require additional technical and economic optimization to obtain maximum benefits. This paper presents a newly developed reduced-order model that captures the flow of energy within the network, including the commercial and residential users' electrical usage, at an hourly rate over a year. The model includes building loads, heat pumps, borehole fields, and auxiliary heat/cool input, all connected with an ambient-temperature thermal loop model. In the model, operational control is possible for the borehole fields, circulation pump, and auxiliary system. For a given system, the model can output the complete state parameters for each component, the thermal loop, and the collective system, such as flow rate over time, average thermal loop temperature over time, and total electricity usage. The model can also be used to optimize the system control for maximizing system efficiency or minimizing system operational cost. For example, one initial assessment of the borehole controller for an example system showed that a controller with on/off operation of the borehole field reduces annual electrical usage by 33%, compared with continuous operation mode. Hence, the model can assist in optimizing a given system's operation to get the most value out of a geothermal network installation. Future work will consider the model's application to a demonstration project, including the model validation against operational data and system operation optimization.
ambient-temperature loop↗
Advancing HPC Performance Modeling with an Interactive, Automated and Tool-Agnostic ML-DrivenWorkflow
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Computer science↗
Fuel Performance Modeling
I've been asked to give a brief overview of myself and the work I do at a virtual recruitment event with the University of South Carolina. I graduated from their in 2022 and the the recruitment asked if I could give a brief 10 min presentation.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates
The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.
Kuang-Yu Chang↗
Modeling of airplane performance from flight-test results and validation with an F-104G airplane
A technique of defining an accurate performance model of an airplane from limited flight-test data and predicted aerodynamic and propulsion system characteristics is developed. With the modeling technique, flight-test data from level accelerations are used to define a 1g performance model for the entire flight envelope of an F-104G airplane. The performance model is defined in terms of the thrust and drag of the airplane and can be varied with changes in ambient temperature or airplane weight. The model predicts the performance of the airplane within 5 percent of the measured flight-test data. The modeling technique could substantially reduce the time required for performance flight testing and produce a clear definition of the thrust and drag characteristics of an airplane.
Marshall, R. T.↗
Modeling Data Movement Performance on Heterogeneous Architectures
The cost of data movement on parallel systems varies greatly with machine architecture, job partition, and nearby jobs. Performance models that accurately capture the cost of data movement provide a tool for analysis, allowing for communication bottlenecks to be pinpointed. Modern heterogeneous architectures yield increased variance in data movement as there are a number of viable paths for inter-GPU communication. In this paper, we present performance models for the various paths of inter-node communication on modern heterogeneous architectures, including the trade-off between GPUDirect communication and copying to CPUs. Furthermore, we present a novel optimization for inter-node communication based on these models, utilizing all available CPU cores per node. Finally, we show associated performance improvements for MPI collective operations.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The Numerical Computation of Clear-Sky Transmittance and Reflectance of Solar Radiation for the Modeling of PV System Performance
Modeling of photovoltaics (PV) system performance requires numerical computation of plane-of-array (POA) irradiances that are influenced by atmospheric absorption and scattering. Clear-sky transmittance and reflectance of diffuse irradiance are essential for the understanding of solar radiation related to multiple reflection between land surface and clouds. This study analytically solves the radiative transfer equation for clear-sky conditions and numerically computes the transmittance and reflectance of diffuse irradiance as functions of the optical thickness of the atmosphere. The computation will be implemented in all-sky radiative transfer models to improve their computational efficiency.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Recommendations on Evidence and Process for Certification of Learning-enabled Components in Aerospace Systems
This report primarily identifies a collection of relevant and necessary evidence for assurance of machine learnt components (MLCs)—also known as learning-enabled components—integrated into aircraft systems, and gives preliminary suggestions on the elements of a certification process that invoke the identified evidence. The main focus is on feedforward neural networks that are static and trained offline through supervised learning. A brief background on the generic elements of the lifecycle of an MLC is given to contextualize the assurance considerations and, consequently, the evidence that is relevant and necessary to support certification. At the level of an MLC, those considerations relate to: (i) the consistency and correctness of MLC contributions to system functions in the context of a validated functional intent; and (ii) the absence of MLC contributions to aircraft-level failure conditions. At an ML model level, confidence in model and data properties contribute to assurance of the containing MLC, in particular: (a) generalizability and robustness of models, in the presence of inputs not previously seen during training, disturbances to inputs, and unexpected inputs; and (b) valid data, i.e., data that are at least representative, relevant, complete, and accurate. Evidence for the above span the elements of the ML lifecycle, and includes, at a minimum, lifecycle artifacts that pertain to: (1) properties of requirements capturing functional intent, safety constraints, and aspects of the intended use and operating environment; (2) model performance, model complexity and design, and algorithm choice; (3) achievement of required performance at the levels of a trained model during model development, a trained model after model development is complete, and a trained model that is transformed into an executable equivalent; (4) model implementation aspects necessary for transforming a trained model into the executable equivalent; (5) integration of the executable trained model into the containing MLC, and eventually the larger system; and, (6) lastly, the verification and validation (V&V) of each of the above. Such V&V lifecycle artifacts themselves include: aspects of coverage, e.g., of various levels of requirements by the input space of the model and the data; traceability (where applicable); application of formal methods for property specification, analysis, and checking. Examples of evidence generation methods and tools further ground the discussion on what constitutes evidence, and the contribution to assurance during certification. The identified assurance considerations and supporting evidence is not a comprehensive set. Additionally, neither what should be considered as sufficient evidence relative to the assigned criticality of an MLC, nor how criticality ought to be determined and adjusted, have been considered in this report. However, suggestions are made for potential activities of the ML lifecycle that are aimed at providing confidence that an MLC can be relied upon when integrated into its containing (aircraft) system. Those activities are proposed as candidate elements of a certification process for MLCs. The main purpose of this report to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.
Aviation safety↗
Reference Cell Performance and Modeling on a One-Axis Tracking Surface: Preprint
Performance of five silicon-based reference cells is examined on a single-axis tracking surface. The reference cells' output are modeled using one-minute sampled spectral irradiance and reference cell temperature measurements. The model also incorporates spectral responsivity data for the reference cell. The transmission of light through the glazing multiplies the sum over all appropriate wavelengths of temperature adjusted reference cell responsivity times the measured spectral irradiance. Modeled reference cell output is compared with measured reference cell output under clear sky and totally cloudy sky conditions. For each reference cell the ratio of modeled to measured output varies by less than 2% over the year.
modeling↗
Resource selection functions based on hierarchical generalized additive models provide new insights into individual animal variation and species distributions
Habitat selection studies are designed to generate predictions of species distributions or inference regarding general habitat associations and individual variation in habitat use. Such studies frequently involve either individually indexed locations gathered across limited spatial extents and analyzed using resource selection functions (RSFs) or spatially extensive locational data without individual resolution typically analyzed using species distribution models. Both analytical methodologies have certain desirable features, but analyses that combine individual- and population-level inference with flexible non-linear functions may provide improved predictions while accounting for individual variation. Here, we describe how RSFs can be fit using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAMs) using widely available software, providing a means to explore individual variation in habitat associations and to generate species distribution maps. We used GPS tracking data from golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos from across eastern North America with four environmental predictors to generate monthly distribution models. We considered three model structures that assumed different amounts of individual variation in the functional relationship between predictors and habitat use and used k-fold cross-validation to compare model performance. Models accounting for individual variability in shape and smoothness of functional responses performed best. Eagles exhibited the least amount of individual variation in response to land cover variables during winter months, with most individuals more closely adhering to the population-level trend. During the summer months, eagles exhibited more substantial individual variation in shape and smoothness of the functional relationships, suggesting some need to account for individual variation in eagle habitat use for both inferential and predictive purposes, during this time of year. Because they allow users to blend flexible functions with random effects structures and are well-supported by a variety of software platforms, we believe that HGAMs provide a useful addition to the suite of analyses used for modeling habitat associations or predicting species distributions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An interlaboratory comparison of mid-infrared spectra acquisition: Instruments and procedures matter
Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy has been extensively employed to deliver timely and cost-effective predictions of a number of soil properties. However, although several soil spectral laboratories have been established worldwide, the distinct characteristics of instruments and operations still hamper further integration and interoperability across mid-infrared (MIR) soil spectral libraries. In this study, we conducted a large-scale ring trial experiment to understand the lab-to-lab variability of multiple MIR instruments. By developing a systematic evaluation of different mathematical treatments with modeling algorithms, including regular preprocessing and spectral standardization, we quantified and evaluated instruments' dissimilarity and how this impacts internal and shared model performance. We found that all instruments delivered good predictions when calibrated internally using the same instruments' characteristics and standard operating procedures by solely relying on regular spectral preprocessing that accounts for light scattering and multiplicative/additive effects, e.g., using standard normal variate (SNV). When performing model transfer from a large public library (the USDA NSSCKSSL MIR library) to secondary instruments, good performance was also achieved by regular preprocessing (e. g., SNV) if both instruments shared the same manufacturer. However, significant differences between the KSSL MIR library and contrasting ring trial instruments responses were evident and confirmed by a semi-unsupervised spectral clustering. For heavily contrasting setups, spectral standardization was necessary before transferring prediction models. Non-linear model types like Cubist and memory-based learning delivered more precise estimates because they seemed to be less sensitive to spectral variations than global partial least square regression. In summary, the results from this study can assist new laboratories in building spectroscopy capacity utilizing existing MIR spectral libraries and support the recent global efforts to make soil spectroscopy universally accessible with centralized or shared operating procedures.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation
Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.
Watson, Leela R.↗