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DOE OSTI2022

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Power balance and divertor asymmetries in the Super-X divertors of MAST-U using SOLPS-ITER

Spherical tokamaks (STs) present unique challenges and opportunities in the area of particle and power exhaust, intensified due to their more compact sizes. Substantial efforts are underway in STs to determine the limits in dissipative operational regimes and advanced divertor solutions, including at MAST-U which provides access to the Super-X divertor configuration. Power balance, and upper/lower divertor asymmetries have been studied using SOLPS-ITER simulations of the MAST-U Super-X divertor. A set of simulations with experimentally inferred transport coefficients with E x B and diamagnetic drifts activated, consisting of density and power scans, and high field side vs low field side gas puff locations, have been used for code experimentation to uncover trends beyond the current experimental parameter space. The upper biased asymmetry (U:L > 1) of the ratio of the peaks of the plasma energy flux densities at the outer targets increases with heating power and decreases with gas puff strength, going from symmetric to up to a factor of 15. The upper target electron temperature has been found to be a good ordering quantity for the magnitude of this asymmetry for all heating powers, gas puff strength, and gas puff locations. The lower divertor biased asymmetry (U:L < 1) of the radiation patterns processed through SOLPS-based bolometry synthetic diagnostics is in qualitative agreement with resistive bolometry experimental results, and it is in quantitative agreement with the trend of the total volume radiation within the divertors of SOLPS. However, radiation measurements alone are not sufficient to infer the magnitude of the asymmetry of the peaks of the power loads at the targets.

MAST-U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Score-Based Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Fokker–Planck Equations

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is a foundational partial differential equation (PDE) in stochastic processes involving Brownian motions. However, the curse of dimensionality (CoD) poses a formidable challenge when dealing with high-dimensional FP equations. Although Monte Carlo simulation and (vanilla) Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown the potential to tackle CoD, both methods exhibit significant numerical errors in high dimensions when dealing with the probability density function (PDF) associated with Brownian motion. The point-wise PDF values tend to decrease exponentially as dimensionality increases, surpassing the precision of numerical simulations and resulting in substantial errors. In addition, due to its massive sampling, Monte Carlo fails to offer fast sampling. Modeling the logarithm likelihood (LL) via vanilla PINNs transforms the FP equation into a notoriously difficult Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is impractical for PINN learning, whose error grows rapidly with dimension. To this end, we propose a novel approach utilizing a score-based solver to fit the score function in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The score function, defined as the gradient of the LL, plays a fundamental role in inferring LL and PDF and enables fast SDE sampling, offering an effective means to overcome the CoD. Three fitting methods, Score Matching (SM), Sliced Score Matching (SSM), and Score-PINN, are introduced, each contributing unique advantages in computational complexity, accuracy, and generality. The proposed score-based SDE solver operates in two stages: first, employing score matching or Score-PINN to acquire the score function; and second, solving the LL via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) using the obtained score function. Comparative evaluations across these methods showcase varying trade-offs. The proposed methodology is evaluated across diverse SDEs, including anisotropic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motion, and Brownian motion with varying eigenspace. We also test various distributions, including Gaussian, Log-normal, Laplace, and Cauchy distributions. The numerical results demonstrate the score-based SDE solver’s stability, speed, and performance across different experimental settings, solidifying its potential as a solution to CoD for high-dimensional FP equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Acceptance criteria for in situ surveillance of MSR materials based on thermally-loaded mechanical test articles

This report describes practices and acceptance test procedures for designing, running, and maintaining a material surveillance program in a future operating molten salt reactor. The programs described here rely on test data from passively actuated mechanical test articles inserted into critical regions of the reactor and periodically removed for out-of-reactor testing. The report defines definite acceptance procedures, based on the results of these tests, to determine whether a component can continue to operate accounting for the accumulation of environmentally-assisted mechanical damage in the component materials to date, and extrapolated out through the next inspection period. Additionally, the report describes work on a software tool implementing many of the surveillance methods and procedures described here and progress on simplified methods for inferring damage accumulation in the test articles, based on out-of-reactor thermal cycling, that do not rely on sophisticated numerical analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Frequency Support Scheme of Generic Inverter-Based Resource Models for Renewable-Dominated Power Grids

The frequency response of SG-dominated power grids is predictable ahead of an occurrence of a frequency event because the frequency response of SGs is consistent, and it can be inferred from the swing equation [1]. However, increasing the portion of IBRs in an SG-dominated power grid might make the characteristics of the conventional power grids no longer valid because this changing resource mix affects grid dynamics and controls [2]. Thus, maintaining these characteristics greatly benefits the control and operation of the power grids with high penetration of IBRs. To maintain these characteristics in IBR-dominated power grids, IBRs should have frequency response capability similar to that of an SG. The WECC modeling validation subcommittee has developed generic IBR models for large system planning [3]-[5]. These models can represent various vendors' dynamic behavior for WTG, PV, and ESS [5]. The current generic IBR models approved by WECC can provide frequency response only from droop control loops in REPC models [6], [7]. The contribution of the loops is proportional to the frequency deviation from the nominal frequency. Thus, it presents an insufficient contribution to arrest frequency variation compared to the frequency response of SGs because it allows a high ROCOF in the early stage of frequency events. This shortfall will become greater as the PL of IBRs increases in power grids. Controller enhancement for the generic IBR models is required to secure the frequency stability under high PL of IBRs as in the SG-dominated power grids. This paper proposes a control extension for the generic IBR models to enhance the frequency support capabilities and discusses the classification of frequency support for the different types of IBR considering their operating constraints. An inertial control scheme is implemented in the REPC and REEC models of the generic IBR models to achieve these objectives. The inertial control scheme includes the following stages: Control area data acquisition, inertia time constant estimation, IBR-related constraint check, IBR contribution determination, and inertial response provision. In the scheme, a REPC acquires control area data from a system operator and estimates a total inertia time constant for the control area the applicable IBR power plant belongs. Then, the estimated inertial time constant is transferred to each IBR controller—REEC—within the power plant. Each REEC checks the availability of applicable IBR for inertial response participation. If the IBR is available, the REEC amplifies the estimated inertial time constant to utilize it for inertial response provision. In this way, the proposed inertial response scheme extends the functionality of the generic IBR models to provide SG-like frequency response within their constraints. Various scenarios considering different IBR types, IBR penetration levels, and frequency control schemes were simulated and compared in an IEEE 39-bus system using PSCAD simulator to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Kim, Jinho↗

DOE OSTI2022

Doppler Lidar (DL) Instrument Handbook

The Doppler lidar (DL) is an active remote sensing instrument that provides range- and time-resolved measurements of radial velocity and attenuated backscatter. The principle of operation is similar to radar in that pulses of energy are transmitted into the atmosphere; the energy scattered back to the transceiver is collected and measured as a time-resolved signal. From the time delay between each outgoing transmitted pulse and the backscattered signal, the distance to the scatterer is inferred. The radial or line-of-sight velocity of the scatterers is determined from the Doppler frequency shift of the backscattered radiation. The DL uses a heterodyne detection technique in which the return signal is mixed with a reference laser beam (i.e., local oscillator) of known frequency. An onboard signal processing computer then determines the Doppler frequency shift from the spectra of the heterodyne signal. The energy content of the Doppler spectra can also be used to determine attenuated backscatter.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving the Confidence in Retrievals of Vertical Distributions of Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number Concentration from ARM Supported by Aircraft In Situ Observations

Accurate quantification of the vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations is critical for improving our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. Ground-based Raman lidars operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, together with surface CCN measurements, are used to retrieve vertically resolved CCN number concentrations (Retrieved Number concentration of CCN, RNCCN). These retrievals rely on several assumptions, including that aerosol composition is vertically homogeneous. To assess this assumption, we developed and tested a framework to infer the dominant aerosol classes/types at different altitudes. This was done by applying a k-Nearest-Neighbors (kNN) algorithm to lidar ratio and linear depolarization ratio measurements from Raman lidar. We evaluated the framework using aircraft aerosol and CCN measurements from the ARM Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. The results show that RNCCN performance degrades as vertical aerosol complexity increases, i.e., RNCCN agrees with the aircraft CCN in vertically homogeneous conditions, but closure decreases in layered aerosol structures. To generalize beyond individual examples, we introduce a metric (heterogeneity index) that quantifies the vertical complexity by assessing the variation of inferred aerosol classes/types. Case-level statistics show a tendency for RNCCN and aircraft differences to increase with this metric. By detecting retrievals that are likely compromised by aerosol vertical heterogeneity, the proposed framework improves the interpretability and effective use of RNCCN used for long-term evaluation of models and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Tian, Jingjing↗

DOE OSTI2020

The ghost in the radiation: robust encodings of the black hole interior

We reconsider the black hole firewall puzzle, emphasizing that quantum error-correction, computational complexity, and pseudorandomness are crucial concepts for understanding the black hole interior. We assume that the Hawking radiation emitted by an old black hole is pseudorandom, meaning that it cannot be distinguished from a perfectly thermal state by any efficient quantum computation acting on the radiation alone. We then infer the existence of a subspace of the radiation system which we interpret as an encoding of the black hole interior. This encoded interior is entangled with the late outgoing Hawking quanta emitted by the old black hole, and is inaccessible to computationally bounded observers who are outside the black hole. Specifically, efficient operations acting on the radiation, those with quantum computational complexity polynomial in the entropy of the remaining black hole, commute with a complete set of logical operators acting on the encoded interior, up to corrections which are exponentially small in the entropy. Thus, under our pseudorandomness assumption, the black hole interior is well protected from exterior observers as long as the remaining black hole is macroscopic. On the other hand, if the radiation is not pseudorandom, an exterior observer may be able to create a firewall by applying a polynomial-time quantum computation to the radiation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗

DOE OSTI2025

LaBr 3 : Ce self-activation analysis for measuring fast neutron fields

Measurement of the fast neutron production rate in deuterium–tritium (D–T) fusion reactions is important for applications such as active interrogation, fusion diagnostics, and borehole logging. Such measurements are typically performed by neutron activation analysis of metal foils, especially copper. Copper foil activation analysis requires efficiency and energy calibrations of the detector used to measure the foil, and it relies on the detection of 511 keV gamma rays, which are prominent in the active background when neutrons are being produced. Alternatives, such as 79m Br produced by inelastic neutron scattering on 79 Br, are limited by short half-life, low-energy gamma emission, and inability to selectively measure D–T neutrons. This work describes a novel alternative approach to measure ≳10 MeV neutron fields based on self-activation analysis of a LaBr 3 :Ce detector. The activity of 78 Br, the activation product of the 79 Br(n,2n) 78 Br reaction, is used to determine the neutron flux and infer the neutron production rate. We experimentally demonstrate the method with a cylindrical LaBr 3 :Ce crystal with a diameter and height of 3.81 cm that was placed at an ~18 cm distance from the neutron production point, at a 90° angle with respect to the deuteron beam in a D–T neutron generator. Operating voltage and current of the generator were adjusted to evaluate the technique’s performance over a nominal generator output range of approximately (1 - 9) x 10 7 n/s. The neutron output obtained from LaBr 3 :Ce activation agrees to within three standard deviations of the output obtained using copper activation. The self-activation technique can be conveniently employed in a variety of applications to simplify measurements of fast neutrons produced in D–T fusion reactions.

Active interrogationLaBr3↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep-Learning-Based Koopman Modeling for Online Control Synthesis of Nonlinear Power System Transient Dynamics

Power system stability and control have become more challenging due to the increasing uncertainty associated with renewable generation. Here, the performance of conventional control is highly driven by the physics-based offline-developed dynamic models that can deviate from the actual system characteristics under different operating conditions and/or configurations. Data-driven approaches based on online measurements can be a better solution to addressing these issues by capturing real-time operation conditions. This article describes a novel fully data-driven probabilistic framework to derive a linear representation of postcontingency grid dynamics and online prescribe control based on the derived model to enhance transient stability. The complex nonlinear power system dynamics is approximated by a linear model by using multiple neural network modules that infer distributions of the observations and introducing a Koopman layer to sample possible Koopman linear models from the inferred distributions. The trained model features linearity that can be easily incorporated into the existing linear control design paradigm and ease the controller design process. The effectiveness of Koopman-based control designs is validated through comparative case studies, which demonstrate increased prediction accuracy and control performance when applied to a power system with heterogeneous generator dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Specimen sizing and remaining life sample calculations for high temperature reactor material surveillance

Advanced high-temperature nuclear reactors rely on structural components that will operate for decades under combined mechanical, thermal, and environmental loading. Materials surveillance programs are a promising strategy for managing the resulting uncertainty in long-term structural integrity by monitoring degradation in service using passively actuated mechanical test articles. Previous reports have developed a simplified, spreadsheetimplementable framework for sizing these test articles and for inferring accumulated creep damage and remaining life from ex-situ test data. This report advances that work toward practical deployment by providing a sample-problem book: a collection of worked, end-toend examples in which the ASME Section III, Division 5 design analysis of a representative high-temperature reactor component is carried through to a sized surveillance article, verified with detailed finite-element analysis, and concluded with a remaining-life assessment based on an assumed ex-situ creep-rate measurement on the retrieved specimen. The report also summarizes ongoing ANL engagement with ASTM Committee E10 on Nuclear Technology and Applications toward drafting a standard covering surveillance procedures for advanced reactors.

Barua, Bipul (ORCID:0000000247184113)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An optimization-based approach to parameter learning for fractional type nonlocal models

Nonlocal operators of fractional type are a popular modeling choice for applications that do not adhere to classical diffusive behavior; however, one major challenge in nonlocal simulations is the selection of model parameters. In this study we propose an optimization-based approach to parameter identification for fractional models with an optional truncation radius. We formulate the inference problem as an optimal control problem where the objective is to minimize the discrepancy between observed data and an approximate solution of the model, and the control variables are the fractional order and the truncation length. For the numerical solution of the minimization problem we propose a gradient-based approach, where we enhance the numerical performance by an approximation of the bilinear form of the state equation and its derivative with respect to the fractional order. Several numerical tests in one and two dimensions illustrate the theoretical results and show the robustness and applicability of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linear instabilities in the hot-ion regime in a high-field spherical tokamak

Abstract The present operating high-field compact spherical tokamak ST40 is an important step toward an ST-based fusion reactor (Gryaznevich and Asunta 2017 Fusion Eng. Des. 123 177; McNamara 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 054002). Temperature and density profiles and their uncertainties in recent hot ion ST40 plasmas with central ion temperatures exceeding 8.6 keV, have been inferred using an integrated analysis of several diagnostics including line-of-sight integration and volume average measurements, as well as limited profile information from a charge-exchange-recombination spectrometer. A linear gyrokinetic stability analysis has been carried out to identify the most unstable micro-instabilities in these hot ion plasmas. In one of these plasmas, it is found that linear growth rates of both ion- and electron-scale ( k θ ρ s ⩾ 0.2 where k θ is the poloidal wavenumber and ρ s is the ion gyro-radius with sound speed) modes decrease from the edge toward the core of the plasma (i.e. from ρ = 0.8 to 0.3 where ρ is the square root of the normalized magnetic flux), while the change of linear growth rates at k θ ρ s < 0.2 is non-monotonic. In particular, at ρ = 0.3 no unstable mode was found at k θ ρ s > 5 , and about an order of magnitude reduction in the maximum linear growth rate in the ion-scale wavenumber range of 0.2 ⩽ k θ ρ s < 1 is seen at ρ = 0.3 compared with the ρ = 0.8 location. It is found through parametric scans that while the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode/trapped electron mode (TEM) and kinetic ballooning mode (KBM)/kinetic shear Alfvén (KSA) mode are more important in the plasma core, ubiquitous mode (UM) is found to be the important ion-scale instability at ρ ⩾ 0.6 . At ρ = 0.8, two instabilities are found at the electron scale, with one being the typical electrostatic electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode at ρ e scale and beyond and the other being an unidentified low-real-frequency instability (at the intermediate scale between electron and ion gyroradii) which can propagate in the ion direction and is driven by ETG. The existence of UM at the ion scale and the low-real-frequency instability and ETG mode at the electron scale at ρ = 0.8 is supported by an extensive linear gyrokinetic stability analysis of another ST40 hot ion plasma in a wider parametric range, taking into account the uncertainties in the experimental profiles.

ubiquitous mode↗

DOE OSTI2024

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗