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At least 289 records · Page 16

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NASA NTRS1992

Learning and tuning fuzzy logic controllers through reinforcements

This paper presents a new method for learning and tuning a fuzzy logic controller based on reinforcements from a dynamic system. In particular, our generalized approximate reasoning-based intelligent control (GARIC) architecture (1) learns and tunes a fuzzy logic controller even when only weak reinforcement, such as a binary failure signal, is available; (2) introduces a new conjunction operator in computing the rule strengths of fuzzy control rules; (3) introduces a new localized mean of maximum (LMOM) method in combining the conclusions of several firing control rules; and (4) learns to produce real-valued control actions. Learning is achieved by integrating fuzzy inference into a feedforward neural network, which can then adaptively improve performance by using gradient descent methods. We extend the AHC algorithm of Barto et al. (1983) to include the prior control knowledge of human operators. The GARIC architecture is applied to a cart-pole balancing system and demonstrates significant improvements in terms of the speed of learning and robustness to changes in the dynamic system's parameters over previous schemes for cart-pole balancing.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Toward the characterization of upper tropospheric clouds using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Microwave Limb Sounder observations

We estimate the accuracy of cloud top altitude (Z) retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observing suite (ZA) on board the Earth Observing System Aqua platform. We compare ZA with coincident measurements of Z derived from the micropulse lidar and millimeter wave cloud radar at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites of Nauru and Manus islands (ZARM) and the inferred Z from vertically resolved Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ice water content (IWC) retrievals. The mean difference in ZA minus ZARM plus or minus one standard deviation ranges from −2.2 to 1.6 km ± 1.0 to 4.2 km for all cases of AIRS effective cloud fraction (f A) > 0.15 at Manus Island using the cloud radar only. The range of mean values results from using different approaches to determine ZARM, day/night differences, and the magnitude of f A; the variation about the mean decreases for increasing values of f A. Analysis of ZARM from the micropulse lidar at Nauru Island for cases restricted to 0.05 ≤ f A ≤ 0.15 indicates a statistically significant improvement in ZA − ZARM over the cloud radar-derived values at Manus Island. In these cases the ZA − ZARM difference is −1.1 to 2.1 km ± 3.0 to 4.5 km. These results imply that the operational ZA is quantitatively useful for constraining cirrus altitude despite the nominal 45 km horizontal resolution. Mean differences of cloud top pressure (PCLD) inferred from coincident AIRS and MLS ice water content (IWC) retrievals depend upon the method of defining AIRS PCLD (as with the ARM comparisons) over the MLS spatial scale, the peak altitude and maximum value of MLS IWC, and f A. AIRS and MLS yield similar vertical frequency distributions when comparisons are limited to f A > 0.1 and IWC > 1.0 mg m−3. Therefore the agreement depends upon the opacity of the cloud, with decreased agreement for optically tenuous clouds. Further, the mean difference and standard deviation of AIRS and MLS PCLD are highly dependent on the MLS tangent altitude. For MLS tangent altitudes greater than 146 hPa, the strength of the limb technique, the disagreement becomes statistically significant. This implies that AIRS and MLS “agree” in a statistical sense at lower tangent altitudes and “disagree” at higher tangent altitudes. These results provide important insights on upper tropospheric cloudiness as observed by nadir-viewing AIRS and limb-viewing MLS.

Wu, Dong L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗

DOE OSTI2021

epi_inference v. 1.0

SAND2021-0503 O The epi_inference software supports the prediction of disease transmission parameters from data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William↗

NASA NTRS1987

An expert system for scheduling requests for communications links between TDRSS and ERBS

An ERBS-TDRSS Contact Planning System (ERBS-TDRSS CPS) is described which uses a graphics interface and the NASA Transportable Inference Engine. The procedure involves transfer of the ERBS-TDRSS Ground Track Orbit Prediction data to the ERBS flight operations area, where the ERBS-TDRSS CPS automatically generates requests for TDRSS service. As requested events are rejected, alternative context sensitive strategies are employed to generate new requested events until a schedule is completed. A report generator builds schedule requests for separate ERBS-TDRSS contacts.

Mclean, David R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Cloud Power Spectra-Dependence on Solar Zenith Angle and Wavelength, Implications for Cloud Optical Property Retrievals

Scale breaks (spatial scales at which power-law exponent changes occur) observed in Landsat radiances have proven to be useful indicators of radiative interactions, and have aided the development of improved techniques in the remote sensing of clouds. This work extends previous theoretical studies to absorbing wavelengths by using both Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) observations and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to infer the systematic dependencies of power spectral shape on cloud characteristics, illumination conditions, and wavelength. We show that MC simulations operating on a simple fractal model of horizontally inhomogeneous clouds produce power spectra that qualitatively resemble observed spectra. We also show that the decrease in the spectra power-law exponent seen at intermediate scales (referred to as "roughening") as the Sun becomes more oblique is more pronounced at absorbing wavelengths. An automated procedure designed to detect the small scale break location is unable to find systematic differences between TM Band 4 and Band 7, despite the fact that MC simulations point to systematic differences in horizontal fluxes. The effect of these qualitative characteristics of the spatial spectra on the retrieval of cloud optical properties is examined by comparing power spectra of nadir radiances with power spectra of optical properties retrieved using either traditional Independent Pixel Approximation approaches or modifications based on normalized radiance indices and the inverse Non-local Independent Pixel Approximation. Assuming that the actual cloud properties follow perfect scaling behavior at all scales, we show the improvement of the proposed retrieval modifications.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

NASA NTRS2012

Explanation Capabilities for Behavior-Based Robot Control

A recent study that evaluated issues associated with remote interaction with an autonomous vehicle within the framework of grounding found that missing contextual information led to uncertainty in the interpretation of collected data, and so introduced errors into the command logic of the vehicle. As the vehicles became more autonomous through the activation of additional capabilities, more errors were made. This is an inefficient use of the platform, since the behavior of remotely located autonomous vehicles didn't coincide with the "mental models" of human operators. One of the conclusions of the study was that there should be a way for the autonomous vehicles to describe what action they choose and why. Robotic agents with enough self-awareness to dynamically adjust the information conveyed back to the Operations Center based on a detail level component analysis of requests could provide this description capability. One way to accomplish this is to map the behavior base of the robot into a formal mathematical framework called a cost-calculus. A cost-calculus uses composition operators to build up sequences of behaviors that can then be compared to what is observed using well-known inference mechanisms.

Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The GLAS Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for Laser Footprint Location (Geolocation) and Surface Profiles

This ATBD summarizes (and links with other ATBDs) the elements used to obtain the geolocated GLAS laser spot location, with respect to the Earth Center of Mass. Because of the approach used, the reference frame used to express the geolocation is linked to the reference frame used for POD and PAD, which are related to the ITRF. The geolocated spot coordinates (which includes the elevation or height, with respect to an adopted reference ellipsoid) is the inferred position of the laser spot, since the spot location is not directly measured. This document also summarizes the GLAS operation time periods.

Shutz, Bob E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites has been available for over a decade. These data are used extensively by operational analysts and forecasters, mainly in a qualitative mode (Weldon and Holmes 1991). In addition to qualitative applications, motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes, thereby augmenting the information provided by cloud-drift wind vectors. Early attempts at quantifying the data by tracking features in water vapor imagery met with modest success (Stewart et al. 1985; Hayden and Stewart 1987). More recently, automated techniques have been developed and refined, and have resulted in upper-level wind observations comparable in quality to current operational cloud-tracked winds (Laurent 1993). In a recent study by Velden et al. (1993) it was demonstrated that wind sets derived from Meteosat-3 (M-3) water vapor imagery can provide important environmental wind information in data void areas surrounding tropical cyclones, and can positively impact objective track forecasts. M-3 was repositioned to 75W by the European Space Agency in 1992 in order to provide complete coverage of the Atlantic Ocean. Data from this satellite are being transmitted to the U.S. for operational use. Compared with the current GOES-7 (G-7) satellite (positioned near 112W), the M-3 water vapor channel contains a superior horizontal resolution (5 km vs. 16 km ). In this paper, we examine wind sets derived using automated procedures from both GOES-7 and Meteosat-3 full disk water vapor imagery in order to assess this data as a potentially important source of large-scale wind information. As part of a product demonstration wind sets were produced twice a day at CIMSS during a six-week period in March and April (1994). These data sets are assessed in terms of geographic coverage, statistical accuracy, and meteorological impact through preliminary results of numerical model forecast studies.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Challenges and lessons learned in the application of autonomy to space operations

NASA's Space Operations Management Office (SOMO) is working toward a goal of providing an integrated infrastructure of mission and data services for space missions undertaken by NASA enterprises. A significant portion of this effort is focused on reducing the cost of these services. We are interested in the potential of autonomy to reduce operations costs. Some attempts have already been made to apply autonomy and automation in these areas in the past with varying degrees of success. We present brief case histories and the lessons inferred from them. Combining this past experience with anticipated future needs, we attempt to clarify the challenges that must be met in order to realize the benefits of autonomy.

challenges↗

NASA NTRS1993

ERS-1 and Seasat scatterometer measurements of ocean winds: Model functions and the directional distribution of short waves

Calculation of accurate vector winds from scatterometers requires knowledge of the relationship between backscatter cross-section and the geophysical variable of interest. As the detailed dynamics of wind generation of centimetric waves and radar-sea surface scattering at moderate incidence angles are not well known, empirical scatterometer model functions relating backscatter to winds must be developed. Less well appreciated is the fact that, given an accurate model function and some knowledge of the dominant scattering mechanisms, significant information on the amplitudes and directional distributions of centimetric roughness elements on the sea surface can be inferred. accurate scatterometer model functions can thus be used to investigate wind generation of short waves under realistic conditions. The present investigation involves developing an empirical model function for the C-band (5.3 GHz) ERS-1 scatterometer and comparing Ku-band model functions with the C-band model to infer information on the two-dimensional spectrum of centimetric roughness elements in the ocean. The C-band model function development is based on collocations of global backscatter measurements with operational surface analyses produced by meteorological agencies. Strengths and limitations of the method are discussed, and the resulting model function is validated in part through comparison with the actual distributions of backscatter cross-section triplets. Details of the directional modulation as well as the wind speed sensitivity at C-band are investigated. Analysis of persistent outliers in the data is used to infer the magnitudes of non-wind effects (such as atmospheric stratification, swell, etc.). The ERS-1 C-band instrument and the Seasat Ku-band (14.6 GHz) scatterometer both imaged waves of approximately 3.4 cm wavelength assuming that Bragg scattering is the dominant mechanism. Comparisons of the C-band and Ku-band model functions are used both to test the validity of the postulated Bragg mechanism and to investigate the directional distribution of the imaged waves under a variety of conditions where Bragg scatter is dominant.

Freilich, Michael H.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Venus - Dead or alive?

In situ nightside electric field observations from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter have been interpreted as evidence of extensive lightning in the lower atmosphere of Venus. The scenario, including proposed evidence of clustering of lightning over surface highland regions, has encouraged the acceptance of currently active volcanic output as part of several investigations of the dynamics and chemistry of the atmosphere and the geology of the planet. However, the correlation between the 100-hertz electric field events attributed to lightning and nightside ionization troughs resulting from the interaction of the solar wind with the ionosphere indicates that the noise results from locally generated plasma instabilities and not from any behavior of the lower atmosphere. Furthemore, analysis of the spatial distribution of the noise shows that it is not clustered over highland topography, but rather occurs at random throughout the latitude and longitude regions sampled by the orbiter during the first 5 years of operation, from 1978 to 1984. Thus the electric field observations do not identify lightning and do not provide a basis for inferring the presence of currently active volcanic output. In the absence of known evidence to the contrary, it appears that Venus is no longer active.

Taylor, Harry A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A structure for maturing intelligent tutoring system student models

A special structure is examined for evolving a detached model of the user of an intelligent tutoring system. Tutoring is used in the context of education and training devices. A detached approach to populating the student model data structure is examined in the context of the need for time dependent reasoning about what the student knows about a particular concept in the domain of interest. This approach, to generating a data structure for the student model, allows an inference engine separate from the tutoring strategy determination to be used. This methodology has advantages in environments requiring real-time operation.

Holmes, Willard M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Vega-Giotto flyby missions and cometary cosmogony

The most important implication of the Vega/Giotto flyby missions to Halley's Comet for cometary cosmogony is the opportunity to absorb the results of the in-situ measurements as made onboard the spacecrafts. Unfortunately the exploration of ejecta form the nucleus was unable to provide an unambiguous definition of the chemical-mineralogical nature of the nucleus: it failed to provide information comparable to that which was expected from a sample return mission. However, the obtained results are significant enough to affect and redirect cosmogonical thinking. Accordingly, the understanding of the cometary-matter dichotomy is modified as deduced from the distiction of water-dominated volitiles and silicate-based non-volitiles. Organic carbon compounds emerge as a major constituent of cometary nuclei. Presently, it is likely that the revision of Whipple's classic concept of the icy conglomerate cannot be avoided. Affected by the Vega/Giotto flyby missions to Hally's Comet, cometary cosmogony seems to enter a new conceptual period. The results of the in-situ measurements (mass spectrometric, UV spectroscopic, and IR spectroscopic) appear to be of basic importance. A chemical explanation is employed to explain the occurrence inside the nuclei of the variety of species, as inferred from the mass spectrometric data, to predict the results of the processes possibly involved. A cosmochemical factor is postulated to operate behind the observed cometary phenomena. The chemistry of the interstellar medium, covering the circumstellar and interstellar dust, advances cometary cosmogony.

Lang, Bruno↗

NASA NTRS1993

An improved algorithm for retrieval of snow wetness using C-band AIRSAR

This study shows recent results of our efforts to develop and verify an algorithm for snow wetness retrieval from a polarimetric SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar). Our algorithm is based on the first-order scattering model with consideration of both surface and volume scattering. It operates at C-band and requires only rough information about the ice volume fraction in snowpack. Comparing ground measurements and inferred from JPL AIRSAR data, the results showed that the relative error inferred from SAR imagery was within 25 percent. The inferred snow wetness from different looking geometries (two flight passes) provided consistent results within 2 percent. Both regional and point measurement comparisons between the ground and SAR derived snow wetness indicates that the inversion algorithm performs well using AIRSAR (Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar) data and should prove useful for routine and large-area snow wetness (in top layer of a snowpack) measurements.

Shi, Jiancheng↗