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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion

The authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 significant quantities (SQ), using typical International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5 gamma spectrometer. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Millwater, H. R.↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-219: Verification of the Accuracy of a Relative Stopping Power (RSP) to Hounsfield Unit (HU) Calibration Curve Produced for Proton Treatment Planning Using EBT3-Gafchromic Film Dosimetry

Purpose: Accuracy of a RSP-HU calibration curve produced for proton treatment planning is tested by comparing the treatment planning system dose grid to physical doses delivered on film by a Mevion S250 double-scattering proton unit. Methods: A single batch of EBT3 Gafchromic film was used for calibration and measurements. The film calibration curve was obtained using Mevion proton beam reference option 20 (15cm range, 10cm modulation). Paired films were positioned at the center of the spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) in solid water. The calibration doses were verified with an ion chamber, including background and doses from 20cGy to 350cGy. Films were scanned in a flatbed Epson-Expression 10000-XL scanner, and analyzed using the red channel. A Rando phantom was scanned with a GE LightSpeed CT Simulator. A single-field proton plan (Eclipse, Varian) was calculated to deliver 171cGy to the pelvis section (heterogeneous region), using a standard 4×4cm aperture without compensator, 7.89cm beam range, and 5.36cm SOBP. Varied depths of the calculated distal 90% isodose-line were recorded and compared. The dose distribution from film irradiated between Rando slices was compared with the calculated plans using RIT v.6.2. Results: Distal 90% isodose-line depth variation between CT scans was 2mm on average, and 4mm at maximum. Fine calculation of this variation was restricted by the dose calculation grid, as well as the slice thickness. Dose differences between calibrated film measurements and calculated doses were on average 5.93cGy (3.5%), with the large majority of differences forming a normal distribution around 3.5cGy (2%). Calculated doses were almost entirely greater than those measured. Conclusion: RSP to HU calibration curve is shown to produce distal depth variation within the margin of tolerance (±4.3mm) across all potential scan energies and protocols. Dose distribution calculation is accurate to 2–4% within the SOBP, including areas of high tissue heterogeneity.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-664: Radiobiological Modeling of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation in Mice

Purpose: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) is a clinical technique used to reduce the incidence of brain metastasis and improve overall survival in select patients with ALL and SCLC, and we have shown the potential of PCI in select breast cancer patients through a mouse model (manuscript in preparation). We developed a computational model using our experimental results to demonstrate the advantage of treating brain micro-metastases early. Methods: MATLAB was used to develop the computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice. The number of metastases per mouse and the volume of metastases from four- and eight-week endpoints were fit to normal and log-normal distributions, respectively. Model input parameters were optimized so that model output would match the experimental number of metastases per mouse. A limiting dilution assay was performed to validate the model. The effect of radiation at different time points was computationally evaluated through the endpoints of incidence, number of metastases, and tumor burden. Results: The correlation between experimental number of metastases per mouse and the Gaussian fit was 87% and 66% at the two endpoints. The experimental volumes and the log-normal fit had correlations of 99% and 97%. In the optimized model, the correlation between number of metastases per mouse and the Gaussian fit was 96% and 98%. The log-normal volume fit and the model agree 100%. The model was validated by a limiting dilution assay, where the correlation was 100%. The model demonstrates that cells are very sensitive to radiation at early time points, and delaying treatment introduces a threshold dose at which point the incidence and number of metastases decline. Conclusion: We have developed a computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice that is highly correlated to our experimental data. The model shows that early treatment of subclinical disease is highly advantageous.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS1995

New Observations of Subarcsecond Photospheric Bright Points

We have used an interference filter centered at 4305 A within the bandhead of the CH radical (the 'G band') and real-time image selection at the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope on La Palma to produce very high contrast images of subarcsecond photospheric bright points at all locations on the solar disk. During the 6 day period of 15-20 Sept. 1993 we observed active region NOAA 7581 from its appearance on the East limb to a near-disk-center position on 20 Sept. A total of 1804 bright points were selected for analysis from the disk center image using feature extraction image processing techniques. The measured FWHM distribution of the bright points in the image is lognormal with a modal value of 220 km (0.30 sec) and an average value of 250 km (0.35 sec). The smallest measured bright point diameter is 120 km (0.17 sec) and the largest is 600 km (O.69 sec). Approximately 60% of the measured bright points are circular (eccentricity approx. 1.0), the average eccentricity is 1.5, and the maximum eccentricity corresponding to filigree in the image is 6.5. The peak contrast of the measured bright points is normally distributed. The contrast distribution variance is much greater than the measurement accuracy, indicating a large spread in intrinsic bright-point contrast. When referenced to an averaged 'quiet-Sun' area in the image, the modal contrast is 29% and the maximum value is 75%; when referenced to an average intergranular lane brightness in the image, the distribution has a modal value of 61% and a maximum of 119%. The bin-averaged contrast of G-band bright points is constant across the entire measured size range. The measured area of the bright points, corrected for pixelation and selection effects, covers about 1.8% of the total image area. Large pores and micropores occupy an additional 2% of the image area, implying a total area fraction of magnetic proxy features in the image of 3.8%. We discuss the implications of this area fraction measurement in the context of previously published measurements which show that typical active region plage has a magnetic filling factor on the order of 10% or greater. The results suggest that in the active region analyzed here, less than 50% of the small-scale magnetic flux tubes are demarcated by visible proxies such as bright points or pores.

Berger, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

New Observations of Subarcsecond Photospheric Bright Points

We have used an interference filter centered at 4305 A within the bandhead of the CH radical (the 'G band') and real-time image selection at the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope on La Palma to produce very high contrast images of subarcsecond photospheric bright points at all locations on the solar disk. During the 6 day period of 1993 September 15-20 we observed active region NOAA 7581 from its appearance on the East limb to a near-disk-center position on September 20. A total of 1804 bright points were selected for analysis from the disk center image using feature extraction image processing techniques. The measured Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) distribution of the bright points in the image is lognormal with a modal value of 220 km (0 sec .30) and an average value of 250 km (0 sec .35). The smallest measured bright point diameter is 120 km (0 sec .17) and the largest is 600 km (O sec .69). Approximately 60% of the measured bright points are circular (eccentricity approx. 1.0), the average eccentricity is 1.5, and the maximum eccentricity corresponding to filigree in the image is 6.5. The peak contrast of the measured bright points is normally distributed. The contrast distribution variance is much greater than the measurement accuracy, indicating a large spread in intrinsic bright-point contrast. When referenced to an averaged 'quiet-Sun' area in the image, the modal contrast is 29% and the maximum value is 75%; when referenced to an average intergranular lane brightness in the image, the distribution has a modal value of 61% and a maximum of 119%. The bin-averaged contrast of G-band bright points is constant across the entire measured size range. The measured area of the bright points, corrected for pixelation and selection effects, covers about 1.8% of the total image area. Large pores and micropores occupy an additional 2% of the image area, implying a total area fraction of magnetic proxy features in the image of 3.8%. We discuss the implications of this area fraction measurement in the context of previously published measurements which show that typical active region plage has a magnetic filling factor on the order of 10% or greater. The results suggest that in the active region analyzed here, less than 50% of the small-scale magnetic flux tubes are demarcated by visible proxies such as bright points or pores.

Berger, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Bombardment History of 4 Vesta as Told by Sample Geochronology

The Dawn mission showed asteroid 4 Vesta to be an extensively cratered body, ancient in age, with craters in a variety of morphologies and preservation states [1-3]. Tying Vesta's relative crater ages to an absolute impact history can be accomplished through investigations of the HED (howardite, eucrite, diogenite) meteorites. Eucrites are crustal basalts and gabbros, diogenites are mostly orthopyroxenites representing lower crust or upper mantle materials, and howardites are mixed breccias containing both lithologies. Eucrite 53Mn-53Cr systematics show that the HED parent body globally differentiated by ~4.56 Ga and fully crystallized soon afterwards [4]. Much later, many eucrites were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface. Disturbance ages in eucrites show that multiple large impacts occurred within 1 Gyr after crystallization, showing a history that largely resembles that of the Moon [5-7]. Dawn images also showed that Vesta is covered with a well-developed regolith that is spectrally similar to howardite meteorites [8]. Howardites are polymict regolith breccias made up mostly of clasts of eucrites and diogenites, but which also contain clasts formed by melting of the regolith by relatively large, energetic impact events. Impact-melt clast ages from howardites extend our knowledge of the impact history of Vesta, expanding on eucrite disturbance ages and helping give absolute age context to the observed crater-counts produced using Dawn data. The distribution of 40Ar-39Ar ages of impact-melt clasts in howardites shows that they formed within the time period 3.3-3.8 Ga [9]. These, and other impact-melted HED materials, have distinct age and compositional characteristics that suggest they formed in discrete impact events. In order to create these crystalline impact-melt products on the surface of Vesta, the impacts during this time period must have had velocities much higher than 5 km/s, the main belt average [10]. This is inconsistent with formation by a normal distribution of impact velocities and points instead to a unique period where high-velocity collisions were more frequent than currently observed. Until now, impact-reset ages in the HED meteorites have been be interpreted under the umbrella of the canonical lunar cataclysm where an increase in the absolute number of bombarding objects is responsible for creating larger absolute amounts of impact-affected and impact-melted rocks, statistically increasing their chances of being found on Earth and dated. However, the distribution of age among the howardite impact-melt clasts may not necessarily result from an increased number of impacts, but rather result from impacts of higher velocity. The changeover from a typical main belt velocity profile to this regime of increased velocity population at Vesta occurs contemporaneously with a similar transition at the Moon, indicating that howardite impact-melt clast ages reinforce the notion of a dynamically unusual episode of bombardment in the inner solar system beginning at around 4.0 Ga.

Cohen, B. A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

A phase-field approach to model multi-axial and microstructure dependent fracture in nuclear grade graphite

The fracture behavior of nuclear grade graphites is strongly influenced by underlying microstructural features such as the character of filler particles, and the distribution of pores and voids. These microstructural features influence the crack nucleation and propagation behavior, resulting in quasi-brittle fracture with a tortuous crack path and significant scatter in measured bulk strength. This paper uses a phase-field method to model the microstructural and multi-axial fracture in H-451, a historic variant of nuclear graphite that provides the basis for an idealized study on a legacy grade. The representative volume elements are constructed from randomly located pores with random size obtained from experimentally determined log-normal distribution. The representative volume elements are then subjected to simulated multi-axial loading, and a reasonable agreement of the resulting fracture stress with experiments is obtained. Finally, quasi-brittle stress-strain evolution with a tortuous crack path is also observed from the simulations and is consistent with experimental results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

DISTRIBUTION OF PLASMOIDS IN POST-CORONAL MASS EJECTION CURRENT SHEETS

Recently, the fragmentation of a current sheet in the high-Lundquist-number regime caused by the plasmoid instability has been proposed as a possible mechanism for fast reconnection. In this work, we investigate this scenario by comparing the distribution of plasmoids obtained from Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) observational data of a coronal mass ejection event with a resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a similar event. The LASCO/C2 data are analyzed using visual inspection, whereas the numerical data are analyzed using both visual inspection and a more precise topological method. Contrasting the observational data with numerical data analyzed with both methods, we identify a major limitation of the visual inspection method, due to the difficulty in resolving smaller plasmoids. This result raises questions about reports of log-normal distributions of plasmoids and other coherent features in the recent literature. Based on nonlinear scaling relations of the plasmoid instability, we infer a lower bound on the current sheet width, assuming the underlying mechanism of current sheet broadening is resistive diffusion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

COLD MILKY WAY H i GAS IN FILAMENTS

We investigate data from the Galactic Effelsberg-Bonn H i Survey, supplemented with data from the third release of the Galactic All Sky Survey (GASS III) observed at Parkes. We explore the all-sky distribution of the local Galactic H i gas with |v{sub LSR}|<25 km s{sup −1} on angular scales of 11′–16′. Unsharp masking is applied to extract small-scale features. We find cold filaments that are aligned with polarized dust emission and conclude that the cold neutral medium (CNM) is mostly organized in sheets that are, because of projection effects, observed as filaments. These filaments are associated with dust ridges, aligned with the magnetic field measured on the structures by Planck at 353 GHz. The CNM above latitudes |b|>20{sup ∘} is described by a log-normal distribution, with a median Doppler temperature T{sub D} = 223 K, derived from observed line widths that include turbulent contributions. The median neutral hydrogen (H i) column density is N{sub H i} ≃ 10{sup 19.1} cm{sup −2}. These CNM structures are embedded within a warm neutral medium with N{sub H i} ≃ 10{sup 20} cm{sup −2}. Assuming an average distance of 100 pc, we derive for the CNM sheets a thickness of ≲0.3 pc. Adopting a magnetic field strength of B{sub tot} = (6.0 ± 1.8) μG, proposed by Heiles and Troland, and assuming that the CNM filaments are confined by magnetic pressure, we estimate a thickness of 0.09 pc. Correspondingly, the median volume density is in the range 14 ≲ n ≲ 47 cm{sup −3}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Detecting change as it occurs

Traditionally climate changes have been detected from long series of observations and long after they have happened. Our 'inverse sequential' procedure, for detecting change as soon as it occurs, describes the existing or most recent data by their frequency distribution. Its parameter(s) are estimated both from the existing set of observations and from the same set augmented by 1,2,....j new observations. Individual-value probability products ('likelihoods') are used to form ratios which yield two probabilities for erroneously accepting the existing parameter(s) as valid for the augmented data set, and vice versa. A genuine parameter change is signaled when these probabilities (or a more stable compound probability) show a progressive decrease. New parameter values can then be estimated from the new observations alone using standard statistical techniques. The inverse sequential procedure will be illustrated for global annual mean temperatures (assumed normally distributed), and for annual numbers of North Atlantic hurricanes (assumed to represent Poisson distributions). The procedure was developed, but not yet tested, for linear or exponential trends, and for chi-squared means or degrees of freedom, a special measure of autocorrelation.

Radok, Uwe↗
DOE OSTI2016

Under conditions of large geometric miss, tumor control probability can be higher for static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy compared to volume-modulated arc therapy for prostate cancer

The purpose of this work was to compare static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in terms of tumor control probability (TCP) under scenarios involving large geometric misses, i.e., those beyond what are accounted for when margin expansion is determined. Using a planning approach typical for these treatments, a linear-quadratic–based model for TCP was used to compare mean TCP values for a population of patients who experiences a geometric miss (i.e., systematic and random shifts of the clinical target volume within the planning target dose distribution). A Monte Carlo approach was used to account for the different biological sensitivities of a population of patients. Interestingly, for errors consisting of coplanar systematic target volume offsets and three-dimensional random offsets, static gantry IMRT appears to offer an advantage over VMAT in that larger shift errors are tolerated for the same mean TCP. For example, under the conditions simulated, erroneous systematic shifts of 15 mm directly between or directly into static gantry IMRT fields result in mean TCP values between 96% and 98%, whereas the same errors on VMAT plans result in mean TCP values between 45% and 74%. Random geometric shifts of the target volume were characterized using normal distributions in each Cartesian dimension. When the standard deviations were doubled from those values assumed in the derivation of the treatment margins, our model showed a 7% drop in mean TCP for the static gantry IMRT plans but a 20% drop in TCP for the VMAT plans. Although adding a margin for error to a clinical target volume is perhaps the best approach to account for expected geometric misses, this work suggests that static gantry IMRT may offer a treatment that is more tolerant to geometric miss errors than VMAT.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Surface forces: Surface roughness in theory and experiment

A method of incorporating surface roughness into theoretical calculations of surface forces is presented. The model contains two chief elements. First, surface roughness is represented as a probability distribution of surface heights around an average surface height. A roughness-averaged force is determined by taking an average of the classic flat-surface force, weighing all possible separation distances against the probability distributions of surface heights. Second the model adds a repulsive contact force due to the elastic contact of asperities. We derive a simple analytic expression for the contact force. The general impact of roughness is to amplify the long range behaviour of noncontact (DLVO) forces. The impact of the elastic contact force is to provide a repulsive wall which is felt at a separation between surfaces that scales with the root-mean-square (RMS) roughness of the surfaces. The model therefore provides a means of distinguishing between “true zero,” where the separation between the average centres of each surface is zero, and “apparent zero,” defined by the onset of the repulsive contact wall. A normal distribution may be assumed for the surface probability distribution, characterised by the RMS roughness measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM). Alternatively the probability distribution may be defined by the histogram of heights measured by AFM. Both methods of treating surface roughness are compared against the classic smooth surface calculation and experimental AFM measurement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Strong far-infrared cooling lines, peculiar CO kinematics, and possible star-formation suppression in Hickson compact group 57

We present [C II] and [O I] observations from Herschel and CO(1-0) maps from the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter Astronomy (CARMA) of the Hickson compact group HCG 57, focusing on the galaxies HCG 57a and HCG 57d. HCG 57a has been previously shown to contain enhanced quantities of warm molecular hydrogen consistent with shock or turbulent heating. Our observations show that HCG 57d has strong [C II] emission compared to L {sub FIR} and weak CO(1-0), while in HCG 57a, both the [C II] and CO(1-0) are strong. HCG 57a lies at the upper end of the normal distribution of the [C II]/CO and [C II]/FIR ratios, and its far-infrared (FIR) cooling supports a low-density, warm, diffuse gas that falls close to the boundary of acceptable models of a photon-dominated region. However, the power radiated in the [C II] and warm H{sub 2} emissions have similar magnitudes, as seen in other shock-dominated systems and predicted by recent models. We suggest that shock heating of the [C II] is a viable alternative to photoelectric heating in violently disturbed, diffuse gas. The existence of shocks is also consistent with the peculiar CO kinematics in the galaxy, indicating that highly noncircular motions are present. These kinematically disturbed CO regions also show evidence of suppressed star formation, falling a factor of 10-30 below normal galaxies on the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation. We suggest that the peculiar properties of both galaxies are consistent with a highly dissipative, off-center collisional encounter between HCG 57d and 57a, creating ring-like morphologies in both systems. Highly dissipative gas-on-gas collisions may be more common in dense groups because of the likelihood of repeated multiple encounters. The possibility of shock-induced star-formation suppression may explain why a subset of these HCG galaxies has been found previously to fall in the mid-infrared green valley.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

ThunderSecure: deploying real-time intrusion detection for 100G research networks by leveraging stream-based features and one-class classification network

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks (40/100G) across distributed sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience intrusions. However, monitoring anomalies in such high-speed network traffics is challenging given current cyber-infrastructure. Moreover, traditional network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are signature based. However, anomaly patterns are difficult to define and that rulesets are often not updated frequently enough to reflect the changes of attack behaviors. We present ThunderSecure, a high-throughput, unsupervised learning-based intrusions detection system for 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements an efficient packet processing and detection pipeline using multi-cores and GPUs. It extracts statistical and temporal features from real-time network data streams and feeds them to a one-class anomaly detection network. A baseline of normal distribution will be created based on the training observation. Testing traffic deviated from the learned profile will be marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets mirrored from two 100G network connections at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic captured long after the training and made nearly certain detection on the segment of the streams where anomalous flows were injected.

100G research network↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 – reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 – and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 – reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 – trends were similar to historical measurements. Here, results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring the Energy and Distance Distributions of Fast Radio Bursts Using the First CHIME/FRB Catalog

Abstract Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are brief, energetic, typically extragalactic flashes of radio emission whose progenitors are largely unknown. Although studying the FRB population is essential for understanding how these astrophysical phenomena occur, such studies have been difficult to conduct without large numbers of FRBs and characterizable observational biases. Using the recently released catalog of 536 FRBs published by the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Fast Radio Burst (CHIME/FRB) collaboration, we present a study of the FRB population that also calibrates for selection effects. Assuming a Schechter function, we infer a characteristic energy cut-off of E char = 2.38 − 1.64 + 5.35 × 10 41 erg and a differential power-law index of γ = − 1.3 − 0.4 + 0.7 . Simultaneously, we infer a volumetric rate of [ 7.3 − 3.8 + 8.8 (stat.) − 1.8 + 2.0 ( sys . ) ] × 10 4 Gpc −3 yr −1 above a pivot energy of 10 39 erg and below a scattering timescale of 10 ms at 600 MHz, and find we cannot significantly constrain the cosmic evolution of the FRB population with star-formation rate. Modeling the host’s dispersion measure (DM) contribution as a log-normal distribution and assuming a total Galactic contribution of 80 pc cm −3 , we find a median value of DM host = 84 − 49 + 69 pc cm −3 , comparable with values typically used in the literature. Proposed models for FRB progenitors should be consistent with the energetics and abundances of the full FRB population predicted by our results. Finally, we infer the redshift distribution of FRBs detected with CHIME, which will be tested with the localizations and redshifts enabled by the upcoming CHIME/FRB Outriggers project.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗