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At least 289 records · Page 16

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗

Global Network Analysis of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Identifies Coordination between Pathways, Processes, and Regulators Expressed during Human Infection

Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a Gram-negative diplococcus that is responsible for the sexually transmitted infection gonorrhea, a high-morbidity disease in the United States and worldwide. Over the past several years, N. gonorrhoeae strains resistant to antibiotics used to treat this infection have begun to emerge across the globe. Thus, new treatment strategies are needed to combat this organism. Here, we utilized N. gonorrhoeae transcriptomic data sets, including those obtained from natural infection of the human genital tract, to infer the first global gene coexpression network of this pathogen. Interrogation of this network revealed genes central to the network that are likely critical for gonococcal growth, metabolism, and virulence, including genes encoding hypothetical proteins expressed during mucosal infection. In addition, network analysis revealed overlap in the response of N. gonorrhoeae to incubation with neutrophils and exposure to hydrogen peroxide stress in vitro. Network analysis also identified new targets of the gonococcal global regulatory protein Fur, while examination of the network neighborhood of genes allowed us to assign additional putative categories to several proteins. Collectively, the characterization of the first gene coexpression network for N. gonorrhoeae described here has revealed new regulatory pathways and new categories for proteins and has shown how processes important to gonococcal infection in both men and women are linked. This information fills a critical gap in our understanding of virulence strategies of this obligate human pathogen and will aid in the development of new treatment strategies for gonorrhea.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A survey of techniques for optimizing transformer inference

Recent years have seen a phenomenal rise in the performance and applications of transformer neural networks. The family of transformer networks, including Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT), Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) and Vision Transformer (ViT), have shown their effectiveness across Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Computer Vision (CV) domains. Transformer-based networks such as ChatGPT have impacted the lives of common men. However, the quest for high predictive performance has led to an exponential increase in transformers' memory and compute footprint. Researchers have proposed techniques to optimize transformer inference at all levels of abstraction. Further, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of techniques for optimizing the inference phase of transformer networks. We survey techniques such as knowledge distillation, pruning, quantization, neural architecture search and lightweight network design at the algorithmic level. We further review hardware-level optimization techniques and the design of novel hardware accelerators for transformers. We summarize the quantitative results on the number of parameters/FLOPs and the accuracy of several models/techniques to showcase the tradeoff exercised by them. We also outline future directions in this rapidly evolving field of research. We believe that this survey will educate both novice and seasoned researchers and also spark a plethora of research efforts in this field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating the Inference of the Exa.TrkX Pipeline

Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been successfully used for a variety of particle reconstruction problems in high energy physics, including particle tracking. The Exa.TrkX pipeline based on GNNs demonstrated promising performance in reconstructing particle tracks in dense environments. It includes five discrete steps: data encoding, graph building, edge filtering, GNN, and track labeling. All steps were written in Python and run on both GPUs and CPUs. In this work, we accelerate the Python implementation of the pipeline through customized and commercial GPU-enabled software libraries, and develop a C++ implementation for inferencing the pipeline. The implementation features an improved, CUDA-enabled fixed-radius nearest neighbor search for graph building and a weakly connected component graph algorithm for track labeling. GNNs and other trained deep learning models are converted to ONNX and inferenced via the ONNX Runtime C++ API. The complete C++ implementation of the pipeline allows integration with existing tracking software. We report the memory usage and average event latency tracking performance of our implementation applied to the TrackML benchmark dataset.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CaloTrilogy: Toward a Breakthrough in One-Step, End-to-End, Physics-Guided Shower Generation for Modern Calorimeters

High-precision calorimeter simulation at current and future colliders imposes rapidly growing computational demands, motivating the development of machine-learning surrogates for traditional Monte Carlo tools such as Geant4. Flow matching and diffusion-based generative models have become leading approaches for high-dimensional fast simulation because of their sample quality, but typically require ${\cal O}(100)$ function evaluations at inference and often rely on auxiliary networks to constrain global observables, compromising streamlined end-to-end generation. We introduce a unified framework that improves the balance between speed, shower quality, and physics fidelity. The method combines: (i) an average velocity field integrator that enables sampling in one or a few evaluations; (ii) a learned generative prior in shower space, constructed from data rather than random noise; and (iii) physics-guided loss terms that impose inductive biases on key observables during training. These elements are training time regularizers, preserving end-to-end inference with no additional cost. With only one or a few evaluation steps, the model achieves shower quality competitive with state-of-the-art flow and diffusion approaches, tested on several public high granularity calorimeter datasets. The results demonstrate inter-layer shower structure consistent with the underlying physics, providing a strong candidate for future fast simulation workflows.

Jiang, Cheng [Edinburgh U.]↗

Experiments on neural network architectures for fuzzy logic

The use of fuzzy logic to model and manage uncertainty in a rule-based system places high computational demands on an inference engine. In an earlier paper, the authors introduced a trainable neural network structure for fuzzy logic. These networks can learn and extrapolate complex relationships between possibility distributions for the antecedents and consequents in the rules. Here, the power of these networks is further explored. The insensitivity of the output to noisy input distributions (which are likely if the clauses are generated from real data) is demonstrated as well as the ability of the networks to internalize multiple conjunctive clause and disjunctive clause rules. Since different rules with the same variables can be encoded in a single network, this approach to fuzzy logic inference provides a natural mechanism for rule conflict resolution.

Keller, James M.↗

Challenges in Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Networks

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such challenges culminate to lack of convergence to the parameter posterior. Nevertheless, this paper shows that a nonconverged Markov chain, generated via MCMC sampling from the parameter space of a neural network, can yield via Bayesian marginalization a valuable posterior predictive distribution of the output of the neural network. Further, classification examples based on multilayer perceptrons showcase highly accurate posterior predictive distributions. The postulate of limited scope for MCMC developments in BNNs is partially valid; an asymptotically exact parameter posterior seems less plausible, yet an accurate posterior predictive distribution is a tenable research avenue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A physics-constrained neural network for multiphase flows

The present study develops a physics-constrained neural network (PCNN) to predict sequential patterns and motions of multiphase flows (MPFs), which includes strong interactions among various fluid phases. To predict the order parameters, which locate individual phases in the future time, a neural network (NN) is applied to quickly infer the dynamics of the phases by encoding observations. The multiphase consistent and conservative boundedness mapping algorithm (MCBOM) is next implemented to correct the predicted order parameters. This enforces the predicted order parameters to strictly satisfy the mass conservation, the summation of the volume fractions of the phases to be unity, the consistency of reduction, and the boundedness of the order parameters. Then, the density of the fluid mixture is updated from the corrected order parameters. Finally, the velocity in the future time is predicted by another NN with the same network structure, but the conservation of momentum is included in the loss function to shrink the parameter space. The proposed PCNN for MPFs sequentially performs (NN)-(MCBOM)-(NN), which avoids nonphysical behaviors of the order parameters, accelerates the convergence, and requires fewer data to make predictions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed PCNN is capable of predicting MPFs effectively.

Mechanics↗

Lithospheric Dynamics of Mars: Water, Flow, and Failure

Some of the largest Martian erosive features were influenced by groundwater, and include valley networks, outflow channels, and possibly landslides. We argue that hydrothermal systems attending crustal formation processes were able to drive sufficient groundwater to the surface to form the Noachian southern highlands valley networks, which show a spatial correlation to crustal magnetic anomalies, also results of crustal formation. Hydrothermal activity is quantified through numerical simulations of convection in a porous medium due to the presence of a hot intruded magma chamber. The parameter space includes magma chamber depth, volume, aspect ratio, and host rock permeability and porosity. For permeabilities as low as l0(exp -17) sq m and intrusion volumes as low as 50 km , the total discharge due to intrusions building that part of the southern highlands crust associated with magnetic anomalies spans a comparable range as the inferred discharge from the overlying valley networks. The Hesperian circum-Chryse outflow channels are further manifestations of groundwater discharge and Clifford and Parker (2001) suggest that the large volumes of water required for their formation flows beneath a confining cryosphere from the South Pole where meltwater beneath an ice cap recharges a global aquifer. We argue that recharge occurs instead over the nearby Tharsis aquifer at high obliquity, assisted by cryosphere melting due to volcanic activity. Numerical simulations quantify the strength and duration of outflow discharge given either South Polar or Tharsis recharge. The contribution of South Pole recharge given Clifford and Parker aquifer properties is negligible compared to that of the initial Tharsis inventory. Tharsis recharge, despite the restrictions of improved aquifer properties, makes a significant contribution and, unlike South Pole recharge under the same conditions, fulfills discharge requirements. Groundwater may have influenced long run-out landslide formation in the Valles Marineris. We present simulations of Martian, terrestrial, and lunar landslides that gauge the role of pore fluid pressure in reproducing accurate geometries and run-out with frictional, Bingham, and fluidization rheologies. The results indicate that pore fluid is a necessary component of Martian landslide formation and we suggest scenarios that might explain its presence.

Grimm, Robert E.↗

Robotic Understanding of Spatial Relationships Using Neural-Logic Learning

Understanding spatial relations of objects is critical in many robotic applications such as grasping, manipulation, and obstacle avoidance. Humans can simply reason object's spatial relations from a glimpse of a scene based on prior knowledge of spatial constraints. The proposed method enables a robot to comprehend spatial relationships among objects from RGB-D data. This paper proposed a neural-logic learning framework to learn and reason spatial relations from raw data by following logic rules on spatial constraints. The neural-logic network consists of three blocks: grounding block, spatial logic block, and inference block. The grounding block extracts high-level features from the raw sensory data. The spatial logic blocks can predicate fundamental spatial relations by training a neural network with spatial constraints. The inference block can infer complex spatial relations based on the predicated fundamental spatial relations. Simulations and robotic experiments evaluated the performance of the proposed method.

Wang, Dali↗

Upper Torso Control for HOAP-2 Using Neural Networks

Humanoid robots have similar physical builds and motion patterns as humans. Not only does this provide a suitable operating environment for the humanoid but it also opens up many research doors on how humans function. The overall objective is replacing humans operating in unsafe environments. A first target application is assembly of structures for future lunar-planetary bases. The initial development platform is a Fujitsu HOAP-2 humanoid robot. The goal for the project is to demonstrate the capability of a HOAP-2 to autonomously construct a cubic frame using provided tubes and joints. This task will require the robot to identify several items, pick them up, transport them to the build location, then properly assemble the structure. The ability to grasp and assemble the pieces will require improved motor control and the addition of tactile feedback sensors. In recent years, learning-based control is becoming more and more popular; for implementing this method we will be using the Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). When using neural networks for control, no complex models of the system must be constructed in advance-only input/output relationships are required to model the system.

Sandoval, Steven P.↗

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗

Genetic programming for understanding cognitive biases that generate polarization in social networks

Recent studies have applied agent-based models to infer human-interpretable explanations of individual-scale behaviors that generate macro-scale patterns in complex social systems. Genetic programming has proven to be an ideal explainable AI tool for this purpose, where primitives may be expressed in an interpretable fashion and assembled into agent rules. Evolutionary model discovery (EMD) is a tool that combines genetic programming and random forest feature importance analysis, to infer individual-scale, human-interpretable explanations from agent-based models. We deploy EMD to investigate the cognitive biases behind the emergence of ideological polarization within a population. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a social network, where agents are able to create or sever links with one another, and update an internal ideological stance based on their neighbors' stances. Agent rules govern these actions and constitute of cognitive biases. A set of 7 cognitive biases are included as genetic program primitives in the search for rules that generate hyper-polarization among the population of agents. We find that heterogeneity in cognitive biases is more likely to generate polarized social networks. Highly polarized social networks are likely to emerge when individuals with confirmation bias are exposed to those with either attentional bias, egocentric bias, or cognitive dissonance.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗

Thiol post-translational modifications modulate allosteric regulation of the OpcA–G6PDH complex through conformational gate control

In cyanobacteria, the redox-sensitive protein OpcA acts as a metabolic switch for G6PDH, enabling rapid adjustment of reducing power generation from glycogen catabolism and thereby precisely regulating carbon flux between anabolic and catabolic pathways. Although redox-sensitive cysteines in OpcA are known to regulate G6PDH, the mechanisms by which redox post-translational modifications (PTMs) on OpcA control G6PDH structure and activity remain unclear. Here, we combine computational modeling with experimental redox proteomics in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 to dissect this mechanism. Experimentally, redox proteome analysis revealed differential redox PTM patterns, particularly on cysteines within the G6PDH-binding site of OpcA. These environmentally sensitive PTM changes at the interface suggest that thiol modifications in this region form a key regulatory node. More broadly, redox proteomics identified site-specific cysteine modifications under light/dark transitions and circadian cycling, linking distinct redox regimes to discrete PTM states. We employed PTM-Psi simulations to show that thiol PTMs near the OpcA–G6PDH interface are critical for allosteric regulation of G6PDH. The thiol PTMs on OpcA affect a putative gate region in G6PDH for substrate ingress and product egress as well as key hydrogen-bond networks within the active site. We infer that PTMs on OpcA tune the conformational landscapes of individual G6PDH subunits toward functionally relevant configurations according to environmental gradients, biasing the enzyme toward catalytically favorable states. Together, our results reveal a molecular mechanism in which thiol PTMs on OpcA modulate G6PDH structure and function through PTM-induced reorganization of conformational dynamics and allosteric communication. These findings demonstrate that PTM-level regulation provides a critical control layer from genotypes to phenotypes that enables cyanobacteria to rapidly adapt to environmental fluctuations through precise metabolic fine-tuning.

Allosteric regulation↗

Improving River Routing Using a Differentiable Muskingum‐Cunge Model and Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Recently, rainfall-runoff simulations in small headwater basins have been improved by methodological advances such as deep neural networks (NNs) and hybrid physics-NN models—particularly, a genre called differentiable modeling that intermingles NNs with physics to learn relationships between variables. However, hydrologic routing simulations, necessary for simulating floods in stem rivers downstream of large heterogeneous basins, had not yet benefited from these advances and it was unclear if the routing process could be improved via coupled NNs. We present a novel differentiable routing method (δMC-Juniata-hydroDL2) that mimics the classical Muskingum-Cunge routing model over a river network but embeds an NN to infer parameterizations for Manning's roughness (n) and channel geometries from raw reach-scale attributes like catchment areas and sinuosity. The NN was trained solely on downstream hydrographs. Synthetic experiments show that while the channel geometry parameter was unidentifiable, n can be identified with moderate precision. With real-world data, the trained differentiable routing model produced more accurate long-term routing results for both the training gage and untrained inner gages for larger subbasins (>2,000 km2) than either a machine learning model assuming homogeneity, or simply using the sum of runoff from subbasins. The n parameterization trained on short periods gave high performance in other periods, despite significant errors in runoff inputs. The learned n pattern was consistent with literature expectations, demonstrating the framework's potential for knowledge discovery, but the absolute values can vary depending on training periods. The trained n parameterization can be coupled with traditional models to improve national-scale hydrologic flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗