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At least 289 records · Page 16

On the nonlinear stability of a high-speed, axisymmetric boundary layer

The stability of a high-speed, axisymmetric boundary layer is investigated using secondary instability theory and direct numerical simulation. Parametric studies based on the temporal secondary instability theory identify subharmonic secondary instability as a likely path to transition on a cylinder at Mach 4.5. The theoretical predictions are validated by direct numerical simulation at temporally-evolving primary and secondary disturbances in an axisymmetric boundary-layer flow. At small amplitudes of the secondary disturbance, predicted growth rates agree to several significant digits with values obtained from the spectrally-accurate solution of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. Qualitative agreement persists to large amplitudes of the secondary disturbance. Moderate transverse curvature is shown to significantly affect the growth rate of axisymmetric second mode disturbances, the likely candidates of primary instability. The influence of curvature on secondary instability is largely indirect but most probably significant, through modulation of the primary disturbance amplitude. Subharmonic secondary instability is shown to be predominantly inviscid in nature, and to account for spikes in the Reynolds stress components at or near the critical layer.

Pruett, C. David↗

On the nonlinear stability of a high-speed, axisymmetric boundary layer

The stability of a high-speed, axisymmetric boundary layer is investigated using secondary instability theory and direct numerical simulation. Parametric studies based on the temporal secondary instability theory identify subharmonic secondary instability as a likely path to transition on a cylinder at Mach 4.5. The theoretical predictions are validated by direct numerical simulation at temporally-evolving primary and secondary disturbances in an axisymmetric boundary-layer flow. At small amplitudes of the secondary disturbance, predicted growth rates agree to several significant digits with values obtained from the spectrally-accurate solution of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. Qualitative agreement persists to large amplitudes of the secondary disturbance. Moderate transverse curvature is shown to significantly affect the growth rate of axisymmetric second mode disturbances, the likely candidates of primary instability. The influence of curvature on secondary instability is largely indirect but most probably significant, through modulation of the primary disturbance amplitude. Subharamonic secondary instability is shown to be predominantly inviscid in nature, and to account for spikes in the Reynolds stress components at or near the critical layer.

Pruett, C. D.↗

Definition of exobiology experiments for future Mars missions

During the past year we have concentrated on two objectives. The first objective is ongoing and is to define the experimental parameters that are necessary to conduct autonomously a mineralogical analysis of the Martian surface in situ using differential thermal analysis coupled with gas chromatography (DTA/GC). The rationale in support of this objective is that proper interpretation of the mineralogical data from the DTA/GC can be used to better describe the present and past environments of Mars, leading to a better assessment of the probability of life evolving on Mars. To meet these objectives we have analyzed a number of samples collected from nature using the DTA/GC. One of the more significant findings was that in samples of desert varnish we detected magnetite and maghemite that may serve as potential biomarkers applicable to DTA/GC analyses of Martian surface material during landed missions. The second objective follows from the first and is to better understand microbe-environment interactions by determining the response of microbes to changes in their environment, including extreme desiccation and solar UV-radiation. The rationale behind this is to develop hypotheses regarding what may have happened to life that may have arose on Mars, and microbial life that may get to the surface of Mars via spacecraft, or meteors from Earth. To accomplish this objective we have exposed microbes, collected from NaCl and gypsum-halite crystals, to the space environment aboard the ESA-German Biopan facility for 15 days. The most significant finding was that these microbes survived the exposure better than others.

Mancinelli, Rocco L.↗

Prochloron--a status report

Prochloron is a genus of prokaryotic algae with photosynthetic pigments like those of chlorophytes. Prochlorophytes are almost invariably found associated as symbionts with marine protochordates (didemnid ascidians), and so far none has been successfully grown in sustained culture away from in host. Based on materials collected from nature, information of various sorts (biochemical, physiological, cytological and fine-structural) has been obtained, indicating many resemblances (and probably close phylogenetic affinities) between prochlorophytes and cyanophytes. Nevertheless they are distinguished by certain unique combinations of characters. Some of the data support the symbiogenesis theory for the origin of green-plant chloroplasts. Other possibilities are briefly discussed.

Review, Tutorial↗

Asteroid Geophysics and Quantifying the Impact Hazard

Probably the major challenge in understanding, quantifying, and mitigating the effects of an impact on Earth is understanding the nature of the impactor. Of the roughly 25 meteorite craters on the Earth that have associated meteorites, all but one was produced by an iron meteorite and only one was produced by a stony meteorite. Equally important, even meteorites of a given chemical class produce a wide variety of behavior in the atmosphere. This is because they show considerable diversity in their mechanical properties which have a profound influence on the behavior of meteorites during atmospheric passage. Some stony meteorites are weak and do not reach the surface or reach the surface as thousands of relatively harmless pieces. Some stony meteorites roll into a maximum drag configuration and are strong enough to remain intact so a large single object reaches the surface. Others have high concentrations of water that may facilitate disruption. However, while meteorite falls and meteorites provide invaluable information on the physical nature of the objects entering the atmosphere, there are many unknowns concerning size and scale that can only be determined by from the pre-atmospheric properties of the asteroids. Their internal structure, their thermal properties, their internal strength and composition, will all play a role in determining the behavior of the object as it passes through the atmosphere, whether it produces an airblast and at what height, and the nature of the impact and amount and distribution of ejecta.

stony meteorite↗

Simulations of Turbulent Momentum and Scalar Transport in Non-Reacting Confined Swirling Coaxial Jets

This paper presents the numerical simulations of confined three-dimensional coaxial water jets. The objectives are to validate the newly proposed nonlinear turbulence models of momentum and scalar transport, and to evaluate the newly introduced scalar APDF and DWFDF equation along with its Eulerian implementation in the National Combustion Code (NCC). Simulations conducted include the steady RANS, the unsteady RANS (URANS), and the time-filtered Navier-Stokes (TFNS); both without and with invoking the APDF or DWFDF equation. When the APDF (ensemble averaged probability density function) or DWFDF (density weighted filtered density function) equation is invoked, the simulations are of a hybrid nature, i.e., the transport equations of energy and species are replaced by the APDF or DWFDF equation. Results of simulations are compared with the available experimental data. Some positive impacts of the nonlinear turbulence models and the Eulerian scalar APDF and DWFDF approach are observed.

combustors↗

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The nature of melt process changes in microgravity

The effects on melt impurities of the lack of buoyancy-driven convection in melts and the gas phase are outlined. Probable effects noted are: retardation of convective flow by a thin adsorbed impurity layer because of surface tension gradients (Marangoni flow); changes in the transport of volatile impurities to the melt surface and the consequent reduction of evaporation; and the change in dependence of evaporation rates on pressure due to the absence of convective flow in the gas next to the melt.

Wilcox, W.↗

Classification of compact objects and model comparison using EOS knowledge

Nuclear theory and experiments, alongside astrophysical observations, constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supranuclear-dense matter. Conversely, knowledge of the EOS allows an improved interpretation of nuclear or astrophysical data. In this article, we use several established constraints on the EOS and the new NICER measurement of PSR J0437-4715 to comment on the nature of the primary companion in GW230529 and the companion of PSR J0514-4002E. We find that, with a probability of ≳84% and ≳68%, respectively, both objects are black holes. These likelihoods increase to above 95% when one uses GW170817’s remnant as an upper limit on the TOV mass. We also demonstrate that the current knowledge of the EOS substantially disfavors high masses and radii for PSR J⁢0030+0451, inferred recently when combining NICER with XMM-Newton background data and using particular hot-spot models. Lastly, we also use our obtained EOS knowledge to comment on measurements of the nuclear symmetry energy, finding that the large value predicted by the PREX-II measurement displays some mild tension with other constraints on the EOS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thoughts on Analyzing Neutron Multiplicity Data

Bayesian methods offer many advantages for analyzing neutron multiplicity data. Ideally one would make nonparametric estimates of the the posterior distributions, the probabilities - given the data - for unknowns to take on particular values. Once one has the posterior, uncertainty quantification is very natural. We describe how different ways of formulating the statistical theory of fission chains are mathematically equivalent. When confronted with actual data and the burden of finite statistics, different methods of expressing the theory offer advantages for understanding the underlying source parameters from an information theory standpoint.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the Nature of GW190814 and Its Impact on the Understanding of Supranuclear Matter

The observation of a compact object with a mass of 2.50–2.67M ⊙ on 2019 August 14, by the LIGO Scientific and Virgo collaborations (LVC) has the potential to improve our understanding of the supranuclear equation of state. While the gravitational-wave analysis of the LVC suggests that GW190814 likely was a binary black hole system, the secondary component could also have been the heaviest neutron star observed to date. Here, we use our previously derived nuclear-physics-multimessenger astrophysics framework to address the nature of this object. Based on our findings, we determine GW190814 to be a binary black hole merger with a probability of >99.9%. Even if we weaken previously employed constraints on the maximum mass of neutron stars, the probability of a binary black hole origin is still ~81%. Furthermore, we study the impact that this observation has on our understanding of the nuclear equation of state by analyzing the allowed region in the mass–radius diagram of neutron stars for both a binary black hole or neutron star–black hole scenario. We find that the unlikely scenario in which the secondary object was a neutron star requires rather stiff equations of state with a maximum speed of sound c s ≥ $\sqrt{0.6}$ times the speed of light, while the binary black hole scenario does not offer any new insight.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-term weathering effects on the thermal performance of the Libbey-Owens-Ford (liquid) solar collector

Thermal performance tests were conducted on the Libbey-Owens-Ford liquid collector, following long term exposure to natural weathering conditions. Visual inspection of the collector, prior to the retest, indicated noticeable clouding of the inner cover glass, probably resulting from outgassing of the insulation. The absorber plate also showed some discoloration. The test results indicated that performance degradation had occurred at inlet temperatures significantly above ambient. The change in the slope of the efficiency curve, from the original data, is a direct indicator of an increase in the collector heat loss coefficient.

Source record↗

Superclustering in the explosion scenario

A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.

Weinberg, David H.↗

Hybrid Power Management-Based Vehicle Architecture

Hybrid Power Management (HPM) is the integration of diverse, state-of-the-art power devices in an optimal configuration for space and terrestrial applications (s ee figure). The appropriate application and control of the various power devices significantly improves overall system performance and efficiency. The basic vehicle architecture consists of a primary power source, and possibly other power sources, that provides all power to a common energy storage system that is used to power the drive motors and vehicle accessory systems. This architecture also provides power as an emergency power system. Each component is independent, permitting it to be optimized for its intended purpose. The key element of HPM is the energy storage system. All generated power is sent to the energy storage system, and all loads derive their power from that system. This can significantly reduce the power requirement of the primary power source, while increasing the vehicle reliability. Ultracapacitors are ideal for an HPM-based energy storage system due to their exceptionally long cycle life, high reliability, high efficiency, high power density, and excellent low-temperature performance. Multiple power sources and multiple loads are easily incorporated into an HPM-based vehicle. A gas turbine is a good primary power source because of its high efficiency, high power density, long life, high reliability, and ability to operate on a wide range of fuels. An HPM controller maintains optimal control over each vehicle component. This flexible operating system can be applied to all vehicles to considerably improve vehicle efficiency, reliability, safety, security, and performance. The HPM-based vehicle architecture has many advantages over conventional vehicle architectures. Ultracapacitors have a much longer cycle life than batteries, which greatly improves system reliability, reduces life-of-system costs, and reduces environmental impact as ultracapacitors will probably never need to be replaced and disposed of. The environmentally safe ultracapacitor components reduce disposal concerns, and their recyclable nature reduces the environmental impact. High ultracapacitor power density provides high power during surges, and the ability to absorb high power during recharging. Ultracapacitors are extremely efficient in capturing recharging energy, are rugged, reliable, maintenance-free, have excellent lowtemperature characteristic, provide consistent performance over time, and promote safety as they can be left indefinitely in a safe, discharged state whereas batteries cannot.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗

Bright Stuff on Ceres = Sulfates and Carbonates on CI Chondrites

Recent reports of the DAWN spacecraft's observations of the surface of Ceres indicate that there are bright areas, which can be explained by large amounts of the Mg sulfate hexahydrate (MgSO4•6(H2O)), although the identification appears tenuous. There are preliminary indications that water is being evolved from these bright areas, and some have inferred that these might be sites of contemporary hydro-volcanism. A heat source for such modern activity is not obvious, given the small size of Ceres, lack of any tidal forces from nearby giant planets, probable age and presumed bulk composition. We contend that observations of chondritic materials in the lab shed light on the nature of the bright spots on Ceres

Zolensky, Michael↗

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

PROBABILITY↗

Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model on a noisy quantum computer

Here we study the SYK model -- an important toy model for quantum gravity on IBM's superconducting qubit quantum computers. By using a graph-coloring algorithm to minimize the number of commuting clusters of terms in the qubitized Hamiltonian, we find the gate complexity of the time evolution using the first-order product formula for N Majorana fermions is $\mathscr{O}$(N 5 J 2 t 2 /ε) where J is the dimensionful coupling parameter, t is the evolution time, and ε is the desired precision. With this improved resource requirement, we perform the time evolution for N=6,8 with maximum two-qubit circuit depth of 343. We perform different error mitigation schemes on the noisy hardware results and find good agreement with the exact diagonalization results on classical computers and noiseless simulators. In particular, we compute return probability after time t and out-of-time order correlators (OTOC) which is a standard observable of quantifying the chaotic nature of quantum systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗