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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Dual control and prevention of the turn-off phenomenon in a class of mimo systems

A recently developed methodology of adaptive dual control based upon sensitivity functions is applied here to a multivariable input-output model. The plant has constant but unknown parameters. It represents a simplified linear version of the relationship between the vibration output and the higher harmonic control input for a helicopter. The cautious and the new dual controller are examined. In many instances, the cautious controller is seen to turn off. The new dual controller modifies the cautious control design by numerator and denominator correction terms which depend upon the sensitivity functions of the expected future cost and avoids the turn-off and burst phenomena. Monte Carlo simulations and statistical tests of significance indicate the superiority of the dual controller over the cautious and the heuristic certainity equivalence controllers.

Mookerjee, P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of prognostic factors, oncologic outcomes, and management for primary and recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva

Objective: To evaluate prognostic factors, outcomes, and management patterns of patients treated for squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva. Methods: One hundred sixty-four women were retrospectively identified with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva treated at our institution between 1/1996–12/2018. Descriptive statistics were performed on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. The χ 2 tests and t-tests were used to compare categorical variables and continuous variables, respectively. Recurrence free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier estimates, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards. Results: Median follow-up was 52.5 months. Five-year RFS was 67.9%, 60.0%, 42.1%, and 20.0% for stage I–IV, respectively. Five-year DSS was 86.2%, 81.6%, 65.0%, and 42.9% for stage I–IV, respectively. On multivariate analysis, positive margins predicted overall RFS (hazard ratio [HR]=3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.18–10.73; p=0.025), while presence of lichen sclerosus on pathology (HR=2.78; 95% CI=1.30–5.91; p=0.008) predicted local RFS. OS was predicted by nodal involvement (HR=2.51; 95% CI=1.02–6.13; p=0.043) and positive margins (HR=5.19; 95% CI=2.03–13.26; p=0.001). Adjuvant radiotherapy significantly improved RFS (p=0.016) and DSS (p=0.012) in node-positive patients. Median survival after treatment of local, groin, and pelvic/distant recurrence was 52, 8, and 5 months, respectively. Conclusion: For primary treatment, more conservative surgical approaches can be considered with escalation of treatment in patients with concurrent precursor lesions, positive margins, and/or nodal involvement. Further studies are warranted to improve risk stratification in order to optimize treatment paradigms for vulvar cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1995

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation into the instantaneous centre of rotation for enhanced design of floating offshore wind turbines

The dynamic behaviour of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) involves complex interactions of multivariate loads from wind, waves, and currents, which result in complex motion characteristics. Although methods for analysing global motion responses are well-established, the time- and location-dependent kinematics remain underexplored. This paper investigates the instantaneous centre of rotation (ICR), a point of zero velocity at a time instance of general plane motion. Understanding and strategically positioning the ICR can reduce the dynamic motion in critical structural locations, enhancing the performance and structural robustness of FOWTs. The paper presents a method for computing the ICR using time-domain simulation results and proposes a statistical analysis approach suitable for design studies. Building on prior research, it examines the sensitivity of the ICR to external loading and design features, providing insights into how these factors influence motion response and how the motion response influences the statistics of the ICR, structural loads, and other performance metrics of interest. The study explores two FOWT configurations, a spar and a semisubmersible, identifying design variables that most effectively control the ICR statistics and identifying the ICR statistics most correlated with the responses of interest. Finally, through two case studies, we demonstrate how to apply these new insights in a practical design scenario. By adjusting the design variables most correlated with the ICR (fairlead vertical position and centre of mass for the spar and mooring line length and offset column diameter for the semisubmersible), we successfully modified the designs of the floating support structures to reduce the loads in the mooring lines, tower base, and blade roots, improving the ultimate strength and fatigue characteristics compared to the original designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Analysis/forecast experiments with a flow-dependent correlation function using FGGE data

The use of a flow-dependent correlation function to improve the accuracy of an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme is examined. The development of the correlation function for the OI analysis scheme used for numerical weather prediction is described. The scheme uses a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans to model the pressure-wind error cross-correlation and it has the ability to use an error correlation function that is flow- and geographically-dependent. A series of four-day data assimilation experiments, conducted from January 5-9, 1979, were used to investigate the effect of the different features of the OI scheme (error correlation) on forecast skill for the barotropic lows and highs. The skill of the OI was compared with that of a successive correlation method (SCM) of analysis. It is observed that the largest difference in the correlation statistics occurred in barotropic and baroclinic lows and highs. The comparison reveals that the OI forecasts were more accurate than the SCM forecasts.

Baker, W. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving ChemCam LIBS long-distance elemental compositions using empirical abundance trends

The ChemCam instrument on the Curiosity rover provides chemical compositions of Martian rocks and soils using remote laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The elemental calibration is stable as a function of distance for Ti, Fe, Mg, and Ca. The calibration shows small, systematically increasing abundance trends as a function of distance for Al, Na, K, and to some extent, Si. The distance effect is known to be due to a dependence with distance on the relative strengths of atomic transition lines. Emission lines representing transitions from relatively low energy levels remain intense at longer distances while emission lines representing transitions from higher energy levels decrease in intensity more rapidly as a function of distance. The multivariate algorithms used to determine elemental compositions rely on a large number of emission lines in many cases, so rather than trying to correct all emission lines, a study was made of the predicted compositions as a function of distance, in order to determine an empirical correction. Abundance trends can be well approximated by a linear trend with distance within the ranges of abundances and distances observed up to ~6 m. Data from 11 distinct geological members and data groups of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, were used to form the model, selecting the members and data groups yielding the best statistics. The model was tested using data from several targets observed from two different distances, and using data from the Kimberley formation, the composition of which is significantly different from the Murray formation, showing that the model works on other compositions beyond those used to build the model. For long-distance observations up to ~6 m, corrections can be made back to an equivalent composition at the median distance of ChemCam observations (2.6 m). Finally, the model has been validated up to 6.2 m, although ChemCam is able to observe bedrock targets to >7 m, and iron meteorites to distances of >9 m.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence from England and Wales

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Forbes, Kevin F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

signal detection↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

An Update on Mortality in the U.S. Astronaut Corps: 1959-2009

Although it has now been over 50 years since mankind first ventured into space, the long-term health impacts of human space flight remain largely unknown. Identifying factors that affect survival and prognosis among those who participate in space flight is vitally important, as the era of commercial space flight approaches and NASA prepares for missions to Mars. The Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health is a prospective study designed to examine trends in astronaut morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this analysis was to describe and explore predictors of overall and cause-specific mortality among individuals selected for the U.S. astronaut corps. All U.S. astronauts (n=321), regardless of flight status, were included in this analysis. Death certificate searches were conducted to ascertain vital status and cause of death through April 2009. Data were collected from medical records and lifestyle questionnaires. Multivariable Cox regression modeling was used to calculate the mortality hazard associated with embarking on space flight, adjusted for sex, race, and age at selection. Between 1959 and 2009, there were 39 (12.1%) deaths. Of these deaths, 18 (42.2%) were due to occupational accidents; 7 (17.9%) were due to other accidents; 6 (15.4%) were attributable to cancer; 6 (15.4%) resulted from cardiovascular/circulatory diseases; and 2 (5.1%) were from other causes. Participation in space flight did not significantly increase mortality hazard over time (adjusted hazard ratio=0.57; 95% confidence interval=0.26-1.26. Because our results are based on a small sample size, future research that includes payload specialists, other space flight participants, and international crew members is warranted to maximize statistical power.

Amirian, E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed that may be applied to both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex algorithm that was originally developed for the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm performs regression model term reduction to prevent overfitting of data. It has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a regression model search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression model. Therefore, the simplified algorithm is not intended to replace the original algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search algorithm.

Ulbrich, Norbert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Seasonal Patterns and Remote Spectral Estimation of Canopy Chemistry Across the Oregon Transect

We examined seasonal changes in canopy chemical concentrations and content in conifer forests growing along a climate gradient in western Oregon, as part of the Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) study. The chemical variables were related to seasonal patterns of growth and production. Statistical comparisons of chemical variables with data collected from two different airborne remote-sensing platforms were also carried out. Total nitrogen (N) concentrations in foliage varied significantly both seasonally and among sites; when expressed as content in the forest canopy, nitrogen varied to a much greater extent and was significantly related to aboveground net primary production (r = 0.99). Chlorophyll and free amino acid concentrations varied more strongly than did total N and may have reflected changes in physiological demands for N. Large variations in starch concentrations were measured from pre- to post-budbreak in all conifer sites. Examination of remote-sensing data from two different airborne instruments suggests the potential for remote measurement of some canopy chemicals. Multivariate analysis of high-resolution spectral data in the near infrared region indicated significant correlations between spectral signals and N concentration and canopy N content; the correlation with canopy N content was stronger and was probably associated in part with water absorption features of the forest canopy. The spectral bands that were significantly correlated with lignin concentration and content were similar to bands selected in the other laboratory and airborne studies; starch concentrations were not significantly related to spectral reflectance data. Strong relationships between the spectral position of specific reflectance features in the visible region and chlorophyll were also found.

Matson, Pamela↗
NASA NTRS1978

Feature discrimination/identification based upon SAR return variations

A study of the statistics of The look-to-look variation statistics in the returns recorded in-flight by a digital, realtime SAR system are analyzed. The determination that the variations in the look-to-look returns from different classes do carry information content unique to the classes was illustrated by a model based on four variants derived from four look in-flight SAR data under study. The model was limited to four classes of returns: mowed grass on a athletic field, rough unmowed grass and weeds on a large vacant field, young fruit trees in a large orchard, and metal mobile homes and storage buildings in a large mobile home park. The data population in excess of 1000 returns represented over 250 individual pixels from the four classes. The multivariant discriminant model operated on the set of returns for each pixel and assigned that pixel to one of the four classes, based on the target variants and the probability distribution function of the four variants for each class.

Rasco, W. A., Sr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Multiobjective Optimization of Thiospinel CoNi 2 S 4 Nanocrystal Synthesis via Design of Experiments

Thiospinels, such as CoNi 2 S 4 , are showing promise for numerous applications, including as catalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction, hydrodesulfurization, and oxygen evolution and reduction reactions; however, CoNi 2 S 4 has not been synthesized as small, colloidal nanocrystals with high surface-area-to-volume ratios. Traditional optimization methods to control nanocrystal attributes such as size typically rely upon one variable at a time (OVAT) methods that are not only time and labor intensive but also lack the ability to identify higher-order interactions between experimental variables that affect target outcomes. Herein, we demonstrate that a statistical design of experiments (DoE) approach can optimize the synthesis of CoNi 2 S 4 nanocrystals, allowing for control over the responses of nanocrystal size, size distribution, and isolated yield. After implementing a 2 5–2 fractional factorial design, the statistical screening of five different experimental variables identified temperature, Co:Ni precursor ratio, Co:thiol ratio, and their higher-order interactions as the most critical factors in influencing the aforementioned responses. Second-order design with a Doehlert matrix yielded polynomial functions used to predict the reaction parameters needed to individually optimize all three responses. A multiobjective optimization, allowing for the simultaneous optimization of size, size distribution, and isolated yield, predicted the synthetic conditions needed to achieve a minimum nanocrystal size of 6.1 nm, a minimum polydispersity (σ/$\bar{d}$) of 10%, and a maximum isolated yield of 99%, with a desirability of 96%. The resulting model was experimentally verified by performing reactions under the specified conditions. Furthermore, our work illustrates the advantage of multivariate experimental design as a powerful tool for accelerating control and optimization in nanocrystal syntheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗