Uncertainty Quantification of the 1-D SFR Thermal Stratification Model via the Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte Carlo Method
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Nuclear Science & Technology↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A Mercury Model of the Molly-G Fast Burst Reactor (FBR)
In order to design neutron irradiation experiments at a given nuclear reactor, one requires a representative neutron spectrum for the configuration of the reactor that will exist during the experiment. This usually implies modeling the operation of the reactor using a neutron transport code. Since the modeling of pulsed neutron reactors is quite complex, requiring coupled modeling of neutronics and thermo-structural response, the typical methodology employs analysis of the neutron spectrum which is obtained from a static keff calculation. While this time-independent Eigenfunction is not truly representative of that during a reactor pulse, we postulate that it is a reasonable representation for our purposes. The Nuclear Survivability (NS) Program at LLNL is considering fielding such experiments at the Molly-G (‘Molybdenum Godiva-II’) Fast Burst Reactor (FBR) at the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR). The goal of these experiments is to (a) test / proof / calibrate diagnostics, and (b) test the efficacy of neutron shield configurations, before fielding at other nuclear reactors, such as the Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR) at SNL/NM. After attempting to secure either drawings or a copy of an existing MCNP model of the Molly-G FBR from various institutions, it was decided to develop a new model for use with the Mercury Monte Carlo transport code. The model described herein will be used to design these experiments.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Transient behavior of drift and ionization in atmospheric pressure nitrogen discharge
The fluid models are frequently used to describe a non-thermal plasma such as a streamer discharge. The required electron transport data and rate coefficients for the fluid model are parametrized using the local field approximation (LFA) in first order models and the local-mean-energy approximation (LMEA) in second order models. We performed Monte Carlo simulations in Nitrogen gas with step changes in the E/N (reduced electric field) to study the behavior of the transport properties in the transient phase. During the transient phase of the simulation, we extract the instantaneous electron mean energy, which is different from the steady state mean electron energy, and the corresponding transport parameters and rate coefficients. Our results indicate that the mean electron energy is not a suitable parameter for mobility/drift of electrons due to big difference in momentum relaxation and energy relaxation. Furthermore, the high energy threshold rates such as ionization show a strong correlation to mean electron energy. In second order models where the energy-balance equation is solved, we suggest that it would rather be appropriate to use the local electric field to find electron drift velocity in gases such as Nitrogen and the local mean electron energy to determine the ionization and excitation rates.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NETL Natural Gas Lifecycle Model 2020 Rev1
This is the excel-based life cycle model that contains all the parameters and Monte Carlo simulation capabilities to model the techno-regions contained in the report: Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile. This is an update to a previous version (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/netl-natural-gas-lifecycle-model) and corrects a modeling error in the post-processing natural gas composition.
Calcium Chloride↗
Single-nucleon knockout cross sections for reactions producing resonance states at or beyond the drip line
Single-nucleon knockout cross sections from fast secondary beams of the proton-drip-line nuclei 9 C, 13 O, and 17 Ne on a 9 Be target have been studied with emphasis on the production of resonance states. These states were identified by their invariant mass, and resonances with two-, three-, and five-body exit channels were examined. The measured cross sections for these states were compared with eikonal-model predictions using shell-model or variational Monte Carlo spectroscopic factors. The experimental yields were found to be suppressed relative to the model predictions, especially when a well-bound neutron or proton is removed. This suppression exceeds that found systematically in measured inclusive cross sections to particle-bound final states. In neutron knockout from 9 C and 13 O projectiles, this suppression of the unbound ground-state residuals yield is a factor of two to three times larger than that found in the bound final-state studies. Modifications to the structure of these systems due to coupling of the shell-model configurations to the continuum is expected to contribute to this extra suppression, especially when the final state is a near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, other considerations including the role of nuclear dynamics may be required to explain all the observed trends.
6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]
Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Experimental study of energy-dependent angular broadening of MeV electron beams for high-resolution imaging in thick samples
In scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), spatial resolution is primarily influenced by the projected size of the electron probe within the specimen. In thin samples, a large semi-convergence angle enables a tightly focused beam and sub-nanometer resolution. However, in thick specimens, resolution is fundamentally limited by transverse beam broadening from multiple large-angle scattering events—for example, a probe with 10 mrad angular divergence can broaden by ∼100 nm over a 10 μm path. Since this broadening scales inversely with beam energy, MeV-STEM offers a promising route for high-resolution imaging in thick materials. To quantitatively assess this effect, we performed high-precision measurements at UCLA’s PEGASUS beamline, characterizing beam divergence and intensity profiles for 3–8 MeV electrons transmitted through a wedged-silicon sample of varying thickness. Our results reconcile discrepancies among analytical models and validate Monte Carlo simulations. Here, we find that increasing beam energy from 3.0 to 5.8 MeV reduces angular broadening by a factor of 2.6, with diminishing returns observed at 7.6 MeV. These findings provide a quantitative framework for optimizing MeV-STEM parameters in high-resolution imaging of thick biological and microelectronic specimens, and for guiding beam energy selection in other advanced imaging modes beyond STEM.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Comparative determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of the acoustic and optical variants of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model
We compare the acoustic Su–Schrieffer–Heeger (SSH) model with two of its optical variants where the phonons are defined on either on the sites or bonds of the system. First, we discuss how to make fair comparisons between these models in any dimension by ensuring their dimensionless coupling λ and relevant phonon energies are the same. We then use determinant quantum Monte Carlo to perform nonperturbative and sign-problem-free simulations of all three models on one-dimensional chains at and away from half-filling. By comparing the results obtained from each model, we demonstrate that the optical and acoustic models produce near identical results within error bars for suitably chosen phonon energies and λ at half-filling. In contrast, the bond model has quantitatively different behavior due to its coupling to the q = 0 phonon mode. These differences also manifest in the total length of the chain, which shrinks for the bond model but not for the acoustic and optical models when λ ≠ 0. Furthermore, our results have important implications for quantum Monte Carlo modeling of SSH-like interactions, where these models are sometimes regarded as being interchangeable.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Implementation of a practical Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm in PyBioNetFit
Abstract Summary Bayesian inference in biological modeling commonly relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a multidimensional and non-Gaussian posterior distribution that is not analytically tractable. Here, we present the implementation of a practical MCMC method in the open-source software package PyBioNetFit (PyBNF), which is designed to support parameterization of mathematical models for biological systems. The new MCMC method, am, incorporates an adaptive move proposal distribution. For warm starts, sampling can be initiated at a specified location in parameter space and with a multivariate Gaussian proposal distribution defined initially by a specified covariance matrix. Multiple chains can be generated in parallel using a computer cluster. We demonstrate that am can be used to successfully solve real-world Bayesian inference problems, including forecasting of new Coronavirus Disease 2019 case detection with Bayesian quantification of forecast uncertainty. Availability and implementation PyBNF version 1.1.9, the first stable release with am, is available at PyPI and can be installed using the pip package-management system on platforms that have a working installation of Python 3. PyBNF relies on libRoadRunner and BioNetGen for simulations (e.g. numerical integration of ordinary differential equations defined in SBML or BNGL files) and Dask.Distributed for task scheduling on Linux computer clusters. The Python source code can be freely downloaded/cloned from GitHub and used and modified under terms of the BSD-3 license (https://github.com/lanl/pybnf). Online documentation covering installation/usage is available (https://pybnf.readthedocs.io/en/latest/). A tutorial video is available on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aRqpqFOiS4&t=63s). Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Advancing earth system model calibration: a diffusion-based method
Understanding of climate impact on ecosystems globally requires site-specific model calibration. Here we introduce a novel diffusion-based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method for efficient model calibration. DBUQ is a score-based diffusion model that leverages Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the score function and evaluates a simple neural network to quickly generate samples for approximating parameter posterior distributions. DBUQ is stable, efficient, and can effectively calibrate the model given diverse observations, thereby enabling rapid and site-specific model calibration on a global scale. This capability significantly advances Earth system modeling and our understanding of climate impacts on Earth systems. We demonstrate DBUQ's capability in E3SM land model calibration at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Both synthetic and real-data applications indicate that DBUQ produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30X less computing time. This efficiency marks a significant stride in model calibration, paving the way for more effective and timely climate impact analyses.
Liu, Yanfang↗
Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM
Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Steady-state properties of multi-orbital systems using quantum Monte Carlo
A precise dynamical characterization of quantum impurity models with multiple interacting orbitals is challenging. In quantum Monte Carlo methods, this is embodied by sign problems. A dynamical sign problem makes it exponentially difficult to simulate long times. A multi-orbital sign problem generally results in a prohibitive computational cost for systems with multiple impurity degrees of freedom even in static equilibrium calculations. Here, we present a numerically exact inchworm method that simultaneously alleviates both sign problems, enabling simulation of multi-orbital systems directly in the equilibrium or nonequilibrium steady-state. The method combines ideas from the recently developed steady-state inchworm Monte Carlo framework [Erpenbeck et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 186301 (2023)] with other ideas from the equilibrium multi-orbital inchworm algorithm [Eidelstein et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 206405 (2020)]. We verify our method by comparison with analytical limits and numerical results from previous methods.
Chemistry↗
Moderate-resolution K-band Spectroscopy of Substellar Companion κ Andromedae b
We present moderate-resolution (R ∼ 4000) K-band spectra of the “super-Jupiter,” κ Andromedae b. The data were taken with the OSIRIS integral field spectrograph at Keck Observatory. The spectra reveal resolved molecular lines from H{sub 2}O and CO, and are compared to a custom PHOENIX atmosphere model grid appropriate for young planetary-mass objects. We fit the data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method. Using a combination of our moderate-resolution spectrum and low-resolution, broadband data from the literature, we derive an effective temperature of T {sub eff} = 1950–2150 K, a surface gravity of logg=3.5--4.5, and a metallicity of [M/H] = −0.2–0.0. These values are consistent with previous estimates from atmospheric modeling and the currently favored young age of the system (<50 Myr). We derive a C/O ratio of 0.70{sub −0.24}{sup +0.09} for the source, broadly consistent with the solar C/O ratio. This, coupled with the slightly subsolar metallicity, implies a composition consistent with that of the host star, and is suggestive of formation by a rapid process. The subsolar metallicity of κ Andromedae b is also consistent with predictions of formation via gravitational instability. Further constraints on formation of the companion will require measurement of the C/O ratio of κ Andromedae A. We also measure the radial velocity of κ Andromedae b for the first time, with a value of −1.4 ± 0.9 km s{sup −1} relative to the host star. We find that the derived radial velocity is consistent with the estimated high eccentricity of κ Andromedae b.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Extended kinetic lattice grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation method for transport of multicomponent ion mixtures through a model nanopore system
Abstract An extended version of the original kinetic lattice grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation method combined with mean field theory (KLGCMC/MF) ( J. Chem. Phys. 2007 , 127, 024706) is presented for the study of transport of multicomponent ion mixtures through a model nanopore. Comparison of the extended KLGCMC/MF (eKLGCMC/MF) simulation results with Poisson–Nernst–Planck (PNP) calculations is also made to confirm the validity of the extended simulation approach. Unlike the original version of KLGCMC/MF simulation method that treats only a binary ionic solution with one cation and one anion species, this extended version can deal with a system that includes ternary ion mixtures. A diffusion probability algorithm is also added to the extended version of the simulation method to describe the inhomogeneous diffusivity of ions that is often observed in the ion permeation through nanopores. Both Legendre and Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind were tested as a basis set for the basis set expansion (BSE) method with which to calculate the reaction field energy in the eKLGCMC/MF simulation. It turned out that the Legendre polynomials perform better than the Chebyshev polynomials, and as a result, the Legendre polynomials were implemented in the current version of eKLGCMC/MF simulation algorithm. The presented eKLGCMC/MF simulation method with new features finds its potential applications in nanopore systems where the correlation between ion species with the same sign of charges plays a key role such as oscillating ion currents or anomalous mole fraction effects.
Choi, Inhyeok↗
Forecasting Multi-Wave Epidemics Through Bayesian Inference
We present a simple, near-real-time Bayesian method to infer and forecast a multiwave outbreak, and demonstrate it on the COVID-19 pandemic. The approach uses timely epidemiological data that has been widely available for COVID-19. It provides short-term forecasts of the outbreak’s evolution, which can then be used for medical resource planning. The method postulates one- and multiwave infection models, which are convolved with the incubation-period distribution to yield competing disease models. The disease models’ parameters are estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and information-theoretic criteria are used to select between them for use in forecasting. The method is demonstrated on two- and three-wave COVID-19 outbreaks in California, New Mexico and Florida, as observed during Summer-Winter 2020. We find that the method is robust to noise, provides useful forecasts (along with uncertainty bounds) and that it reliably detected when the initial single-wave COVID-19 outbreaks transformed into successive surges as containment efforts in these states failed by the end of Spring 2020.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertainty Quantification for Neutron Shield Using Convolutional Neural Networks
Uncertainty quantification from radiation transport calculations was conducted using a Bayesian inference approach. A surrogate model, using a convolutional neural network, was employed to emulate the neutron fluence, which was simulated with a Monte Carlo radiation transport model. This allowed for a computationally cheap approach to evaluate input parameters and to sample their corresponding posterior probability distributions. Experimental data from the literature were employed to perform uncertainty quantification studies for concrete shields. As a result, the method is a nonintrusive approach that enables studies with multiple input parameters and can be applied to any radiation transport model.
Bayesian inference↗
Machine learning to alleviate Hubbard-model sign problems
Lattice Monte Carlo calculations of interacting systems on nonbipartite lattices exhibit an oscillatory imaginary phase known as the phase or sign problem, even at zero chemical potential. One method to alleviate the sign problem is to analytically continue the integration region of the state variables into the complex plane via holomorphic flow equations. For asymptotically large flow times, the state variables approach manifolds of constant imaginary phase known as Lefschetz thimbles. Furthermore, flowing such variables and calculating the ensuing Jacobian is a computationally demanding procedure. In this paper, we demonstrate that neural networks can be trained to parametrize suitable manifolds for this class of sign problem and drastically reduce the computational cost for different severely afflicted small volume systems. In particular, we apply our method to the Hubbard model on the triangle and tetrahedron, both of which are nonbipartite. At strong interaction strengths and modest temperatures, the tetrahedron suffers from a severe sign problem that cannot be overcome with standard reweighting techniques, while it quickly yields to our method. We benchmark our results with exact calculations and comment on future directions of this work.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Gamma Decay of the 154 Sm Isovector Giant Dipole Resonance: Smekal-Raman Scattering as a Novel Probe of Nuclear Ground-State Deformation
𝛾 decays of the isovector giant dipole resonance (IVGDR) of the deformed nucleus 154 Sm were measured using 2$^{+}_{1}$-Smekal-Raman and elastic scattering of linearly polarized, quasimonochromatic photon beams. The two scattering processes were disentangled through their distinct angular distributions. Their branching ratio and cross sections were determined at six excitation energies covering the 154 Sm IVGDR. Both agree with the predictions of the geometrical model for the IVGDR and confirm 𝛾 decay as an observable sensitive to the structure of the resonance. Consequently, the data place strong constraints on the nuclear shape, including the degree of triaxiality. The derived 154 Sm shape parameters 𝛽 = 0.2925(25) and 𝛾 = 5.0(15)° agree well with other measurements and recent Monte Carlo shell-model calculations.
150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗