Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Nucleosynthesis Predictions for Intermediate-Mass AGB Stars: Comparison to Observations of Type I Planetary Nebulae

Type I planetary nebulae (PNe) have high He/H and N/O ratios and are thought to be descendants of stars with initial masses of approx. 3-8 Stellar Mass. These characteristics indicate that the progenitor stars experienced proton-capture nucleosynthesis at the base of the convective envelope, in addition to the slow neutron capture process operating in the He-shell (the s-process). We compare the predicted abundances of elements up to Sr from models of intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to measured abundances in Type I PNe. In particular, we compare predictions and observations for the light trans-iron elements Se and Kr, in order to constrain convective mixing and the s-process in these stars. A partial mixing zone is included in selected models to explore the effect of a C-13 pocket on the s-process yields. The solar-metallicity models produce enrichments of [(Se, Kr)/Fe] less than or approx. 0.6, consistent with Galactic Type I PNe where the observed enhancements are typically less than or approx. 0.3 dex, while lower metallicity models predict larger enrichments of C, N, Se, and Kr. O destruction occurs in the most massive models but it is not efficient enough to account for the greater than or approx. 0.3 dex O depletions observed in some Type I PNe. It is not possible to reach firm conclusions regarding the neutron source operating in massive AGB stars from Se and Kr abundances in Type I PNe; abundances for more s-process elements may help to distinguish between the two neutron sources. We predict that only the most massive (M grester than or approx.5 Stellar Mass) models would evolve into Type I PNe, indicating that extra-mixing processes are active in lower-mass stars (3-4 Stellar Mass), if these stars are to evolve into Type I PNe.

Karakas, Amanda I.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A variational approach to understanding white dwarf evolution

A variational approach is used to map out the effects that uncertainties in the theoretical model parameters have upon the derived ages near the observed cutoff in the white dwarf luminosity function. Two representative sequences are assessed, simulating a white dwarf with a 50/50 C/O mixture in the core and an outer helium layer and a white dwarf with a C/O convective overshooting profile. The differential effects that the variation of selected model input quantities has on the ages are reported, and it is concluded that internal theoretical uncertainties are small and getting smaller with time, and the results underscore the power of using the observed white dwarf luminosity function for studying the history of star formation in the Galaxy.

Wood, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

A model based technique for the design of flight directors

A new technique for designing flight directors is discussed. This technique uses the optimal-control pilot/vehicle model to determine the appropriate control strategy. The dynamics of this control strategy are then incorporated into the director control laws, thereby enabling the pilot to operate at a significantly lower workload. A preliminary design of a control director for maintaining a STOL vehicle on the approach path in the presence of random air turbulence is evaluated. By selecting model parameters in terms of allowable path deviations and pilot workload levels, a set of director laws is achieved which allows improved system performance at reduced workload levels. The pilot acts essentially as a proportional controller with regard to the director signals, and control motions are compatible with those appropriate to status-only displays.

Levison, W. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon- and Oxygen-rich stars in MaStar: identification and classification

ABSTRACT Carbon- and Oxygen-rich stars populating the Thermally Pulsing Asymptotic Giant Branch (TP-AGB) phase of stellar evolution are relevant contributors to the spectra of ∼1 Gyr old populations. Atmosphere models for these types are uncertain, due to complex molecules and mass-loss effects. Empirical spectra are then crucial, but samples are small due to the short (∼3 Myr) TP-AGB lifetime. Here we exploit the vastness of the MaNGA Stellar library MaStar (∼60 000 spectra) to identify C and O-rich type stars. We define an optical colour selection with cuts of (g − r) > 2 and (g − i) < 1.55(g − r) − 0.07, calibrated with known C- and O-rich spectra. This identifies C- and O-rich stars along clean, separated sequences. An analogue selection is found in V, R, I bands. Our equation identifies C-rich and O-rich spectra with predictive performance metric F1-scores of 0.72 and 0.74 (over 1), respectively. We finally identify 41 C- and 87 O-rich type AGB stars in MaStar, 5 and 49 of which do not have a SIMBAD counterpart. We also detect a sample of non-AGB, dwarf C-stars. We further design a fitting procedure to classify the spectra into broad spectral types, by using as fitting templates empirical C- and O-rich spectra. We find remarkably good fits for the majority of candidates and categorize them into C- and O-rich bins following existing classifications, which correlate to effective temperature. Our selection models can be applied to large photometric surveys (e.g. Euclid, Rubin). The classified spectra will facilitate future evolutionary population synthesis models.

Hill, Lewis (ORCID:0000000180528080)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ex vivo to in vivo model of malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors for precision oncology

Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) are aggressive soft tissue sarcomas that often develop in patients with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). To address the critical need for novel therapeutics in MPNST, we aimed to establish an ex vivo 3D platform that accurately captured the genomic diversity of MPNST and could be utilized in a medium-throughput manner for drug screening studies to be validated in vivo using patient-derived xenografts (PDX). Genomic analysis was performed on all PDX-tumor pairs. Selected PDX were harvested for assembly into 3D microtissues. Based on prior work in our labs, we evaluated drugs (trabectedin, olaparib, and mirdametinib) ex vivo and in vivo. For 3D microtissue studies, cell viability was the endpoint as assessed by Zeiss Axio Observer. For PDX drug studies, tumor volume was measured twice weekly. Bulk RNA sequencing was performed to identify pathways enriched in cells. We developed 13 NF1-associated MPNST-PDX and identified mutations or structural abnormalities in NF1 (100%), SUZ12 (85%), EED (15%), TP53 (15%), CDKN2A (85%), and chromosome 8 gain (77%). We successfully assembled PDX into 3D microtissues, categorized as robust (>90% viability at 48 h), good (>50%), or unusable (<50%). We evaluated drug response to “robust” or “good” microtissues, namely MN-2, JH-2-002, JH-2-079-c, and WU-225. Drug response ex vivo predicted drug response in vivo, and enhanced drug effects were observed in select models. These data support the successful establishment of a novel 3D platform for drug discovery and MPNST biology exploration in a system representative of the human condition.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Breininger, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning of networked spreading models from noisy and incomplete data

Recent years have seen a lot of progress in algorithms for learning parameters of spreading dynamics from both full and partial data. Some of the remaining challenges include model selection under the scenarios of unknown network structure, noisy data, missing observations in time, as well as an efficient incorporation of prior information to minimize the number of samples required for an accurate learning. Here, in this work, we introduce a universal learning method based on a scalable dynamic message-passing technique that addresses these challenges often encountered in real data. The algorithm leverages available prior knowledge on the model and on the data, and reconstructs both network structure and parameters of a spreading model. We show that a linear computational complexity of the method with the key model parameters makes the algorithm scalable to large network instances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Developing Atmospheric Retrieval Methods for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants in Reflected Light I: Methane Abundances and Basic Cloud Properties

Reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool, directly imaged extrasolar giant planets are expected to be performed in the next decade by space-based telescopes equipped with optical wavelength coronagraphs and integral field spectrographs, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs an albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler (emcee) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm (MultiNest) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model, and highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. Here we apply this methodology to simulated spectra of cool giant planets. As a proof-of-concept, our current atmospheric model contains 1 or 2 cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H2-He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise, in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic reflected-light spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492 c, a likely observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high accuracy, while parameters uncertainties are model-dependent.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local modeling for FRF estimation with noisy input measurements

The frequency response function (FRF) is an essential means by which dynamic systems are qualified. In recent years, local modeling approaches have been extensively researched and shown to significantly outperform traditional FRF estimators. However, the standard local modeling approach assumes a perfectly-known system input, which results in biased FRF estimates in the presence of input noise. This paper derives a simple adjustment that can be used to improve FRF estimation for systems subjected to random excitation with noisy input data. This improvement can be implemented with little modification to standard local modeling algorithms and with little additional computational burden. The adjustment is coupled with a model selection procedure to avoid underfitting and overfitting. In conclusion, the methods presented in this paper are validated on a simulation, and they are shown to reduce bias due to input noise.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward Simulating Departure from Nucleate Boiling at High-Pressure Applications with Selected Wall Boiling Closures

Recently, a Eulerian-based two-fluid computational fluid dynamics (CFD) framework with a wall heat flux partitioning approach has been intensively investigated for departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) simulation under the U.S. Department of Energy–funded Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Understanding of the DNB characteristics over a range of pressurized water reactor–like operating conditions and accurate prediction of boiling crisis in the nuclear power system have been grand challenges because of the large impact of DNB on reactor safety and operational economics. The ultimate goal of this task in the CASL program is to introduce a robust multiphase CFD–based DNB modeling framework that is capable of characterizing an entire boiling history in which the wall boiling mode experiences the following through multiple stages of heat transfer mode: (1) single-phase convective heat transfer, (2) nucleate boiling heat transfer, and (3) identification of the departure of nucleate boiling. To validate the CASL boiling model, we have benchmarked simulated DNB over three different flow channel configurations (pipe flow, 5 × 5 fuel bundle with mixing vane tests, and 5 × 5 fuel bundle without mixing vane tests) against experimental measurements, and the validation result with open literature is reported. The DNB detection criteria in the simulation are checked by monitoring the peak wall temperature, wall dryout factor, and net energy balance. In addition to the DNB performance test, some preliminary sensitivity results on closure model selection are reported to address the prediction capability of local void profile against measurements. The boiling simulation tested in this study exhibits a maximum deviation of 24% from the measured DNB value in a high-pressure (i.e., 138 bars) subcooled pipe flow test. The ranges of operating conditions are as follows: 1650 to 2650 kg/m 2 ·s for mass flux and 8.5 to 96 K for subcooled inlet temperature. The deviation is even reduced to 7% when the subcooled temperature is less than 40 K. Besides accuracy, base practice guidelines for DNB detection criteria are tested by monitoring three simulation variables: (1) maximum wall temperature, (2) wall dryout factor (i.e., K-value), and (3) energy balance. Numerical robustness of DNB simulation is largely achieved in most of the validation test except for a few high subcooled test cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1997

Inversion Schemes to Retrieve Atmospheric and Oceanic Parameters from SeaWiFS Data

The investigation focuses on two key issues in satellite ocean color remote sensing, namely the presence of whitecaps on the sea surface and the validity of the aerosol models selected for the atmospheric correction of SeaWiFS data. Experiments were designed and conducted at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography to measure the optical properties of whitecaps and to study the aerosol optical properties in a typical mid-latitude coastal environment. CIMEL Electronique sunphotometers, now integrated in the AERONET network, were also deployed permanently in Bermuda and in Lanai, calibration/validation sites for SeaWiFS and MODIS. Original results were obtained on the spectral reflectance of whitecaps and on the choice of aerosol models for atmospheric correction schemes and the type of measurements that should be made to verify those schemes. Bio-optical algorithms to remotely sense primary productivity from space were also evaluated, as well as current algorithms to estimate PAR at the earth's surface.

Deschamps, P.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1995

NASA-UVA Light Aerospace Alloy and Structures Technology program (LA2ST)

The objective of the LA2ST Program is to conduct interdisciplinary graduate student research on the performance of next generation, light-weight aerospace alloys, composites, and thermal gradient structures in collaboration with NASA-Langley researchers. The general aim is to produce relevant data and basic understanding of material mechanical response, environment/corrosion behavior, and microstructure; new monolithic and composite alloys; advanced processing methods; new solid and fluid mechanics analyses; measurement and modeling advances; and a pool of educated students for aerospace technologies. Specific technical objectives are presented for each of the following research projects: time-temperature dependent fracture in advanced wrought ingot metallurgy, and spray deposited aluminum alloys; cryogenic temperature effects on the deformation and fracture of Al-Li-Cu-In alloys; effects of aging and temperature on the ductile fracture of AA2095 and AA2195; mechanisms of localized corrosion in alloys 2090 and 2095; hydrogen interactions in aluminum-lithium alloys 2090 and selected model alloys; mechanisms of deformation and fracture in high strength titanium alloys (effects of temperature and hydrogen and effects of temperature and microstructure); evaluations of wide-panel aluminum alloy extrusions; Al-Si-Ge alloy development; effects of texture and precipitates on mechanical property anisotropy of Al-Cu-Mg-X alloys; damage evolution in polymeric composites; and environmental effects in fatigue life prediction - modeling crack propagation in light aerospace alloys.

Starke, Edgar A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Influence of wall permeability on turbulent boundary-layer properties

Experimental boundary-layer studies of a series of low pressure drop, permeable surfaces have been conducted to characterize their surface interaction with a turbulent boundary layer. The models were flat and tested at nominally zero pressure gradient in low speed air. The surfaces were thin metal sheets with discrete perforations. Direct drag balance measurements of skin friction indicate that the general effect of surface permeability is to increase drag above that of a smooth plate reference level. Heuristic arguments are presented to show that this type of behavior is to be expected. Other boundary-layer data are also presented including mean velocity profiles and conditionally sampled streamwise velocity fluctuations (hot wire) for selected models.

Wilkinson, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Use of FUV auroral emissions as diagnostic indicators

In an earlier study we modeled selected Far Ultraviolet (FUV) auroral emissions (O I(1356 A), N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) (1464 A), and LBH (1838 A)) to examine the sensitivity of these emissions and their ratios to likely changes in the neutral atmosphere. In this paper we extend that study to examine the dependence of these same emissions and their ratios on the shape of the energy distribution of the auroral electrons. In particular, we wish to determine whether changes in energy spectra might interfere with our determination of the characteristic energy. Modeled column-integrated emissions show relatively small (less than 30%) dependences on the shape and width of the incident energy spectrum, provided the average energy and total energy flux of the energy distribution are held constant. Long-wavelength FUV emissions, which are relatively unaffected by O2 absorption losses, exhibit virtually no dependence on the shape of the incident energy distribution. Changes in ratios of FUV short- to long-wavelength emissions as a function of characteristic energy are much larger than those due to changes in energy distribution. As a result, the determination of characteristic energy using these emission ratios is relatively unambiguous. We also examine the relative intensities of the aurora and the dayglow for various conditions. The intensities of modeled FUV auroral emissions relative to the dayglow emissions are presented as a function of solar zenith angle and incident energy flux. Under certain conditions (energy flux less than or equal 1 erg/sq cm/s and solar zenith angle less than or equal 50 deg) the dayglow will be limiting factor in the detection of weak auroras.

Germany, G. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved Treatment of Host-galaxy Correlations in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Improving the use of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) as standard candles requires a better approach to incorporate the relationship between SNe Ia and the properties of their host galaxies. Using a spectroscopically confirmed sample of ~1600 SNe Ia, we develop the first empirical model of underlying populations for SNe Ia light-curve properties that includes their dependence on host-galaxy stellar mass; we find a significant correlation between stretch population and stellar mass (99.9% confidence) and a weaker correlation between color and stellar mass (90% confidence). These populations are important inputs to simulations that are used to model selection effects and correct distance biases within the BEAMS with Bias Correction (BBC) framework. Here we improve BBC to also account for SNe Ia-host correlations, and we validate this technique on simulated data samples. Here, we recover the input relationship between SNe Ia luminosity and host-galaxy stellar mass (the mass step, γ) with a bias of 0.004 ±0.001 mag, which is a factor of 5 improvement over previous methods that have a γ bias of ~0.02 ± 0.001 mag. We adapt BBC for a novel dust-based model of intrinsic brightness variations, which results in a greatly reduced mass step for data (γ = 0.017 ± 0.008) and for simulations (γ = 0.006 ± 0.007). Analyzing simulated SNe Ia, the biases on the dark energy equation of state, w, vary from Δw = 0.006(5) to 0.010(5) with our new BBC method; these biases are significantly smaller than the 0.02(5) w bias using previous BBC methods that ignore SNe Ia-host correlations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗