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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

We explore the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in 27 models from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Comparison with RAPID and SAMBA observations suggests that the ensemble mean represents the AMOC strength and vertical profile reasonably well. Linear trends over the entire historical period (1850-2014) are generally neutral, but many models exhibit an AMOC peak around the 1980’s. Ensemble-mean AMOC decline in future (SSP) scenarios is stronger in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. In fact, AMOC decline in CMIP6 is surprisingly insensitive to the scenario at least up to 2060. We find an emergent relationship among a majority of models between AMOC strength and 21st century AMOC decline. Constraining this relationship with RAPID observations suggests that the AMOC might decline between 6 and 8 Sv (34-45%) by 2100. A smaller group of models projects much less AMOC weakening of only up to 30%.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive modeling of NSTX discharges with the updated multi-mode anomalous transport module

Abstract The objective of this study is twofold: firstly, to demonstrate the consistency between the anomalous transport results produced by updated Multi-Mode Model (MMM) version 9.0.4 and those obtained through gyrokinetic simulations; and secondly, to showcase MMM’s ability to predict electron and ion temperature profiles in low aspect ratio, high beta NSTX discharges. MMM encompasses a range of transport mechanisms driven by electron and ion temperature gradients, trapped electrons, kinetic ballooning, peeling, microtearing, and drift resistive inertial ballooning modes. These modes within MMM are being verified through corresponding gyrokinetic results. The modes that potentially contribute to ion thermal transport are stable in MMM, aligning with both experimental data and findings from linear CGYRO simulations. The isotope effects on these modes are also studied and higher mass is found to be stabilizing, consistent with the experimental trend. The electron thermal power across the flux surface is computed within MMM and compared to experimental measurements and nonlinear CGYRO simulation results. Specifically, the electron temperature gradient modes (ETGM) within MMM account for 2.0 MW of thermal power, consistent with experimental findings. It is noteworthy that the ETGM model requires approximately 5.0 ms of computation time on a standard desktop, while nonlinear CGYRO simulations necessitate 8.0 h on 8 K cores. MMM proves to be highly computationally efficient, a crucial attribute for various applications, including real-time control, tokamak scenario optimization, and uncertainty quantification of experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of PBL Parameterization Schemes in WRF Model Predictions during the Dry Season of the Central Amazon Basin

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes are employed to handle subgrid-scale processes on atmospheric models, playing a key role in accurately representing the atmosphere. Recent studies have shown that PBL schemes are particularly fundamental to the depiction of PBL height (PBLH), especially over the Amazon. In the present study, we investigated the performance of PBL schemes on the representation of meteorological variables, turbulent fluxes, PBL vertical structures, and PBLH over the central Amazon basin under dry conditions, taking advantage of observations from the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5) for validation and evaluation. Numerical experiments were carried out within the WRF model using eight PBL schemes for two dry periods from 2014 (typical year) and 2015 (El-Niño year), and results from the 1-km resolution domain were directly compared to hourly in situ observations. In general, all PBL schemes present good performance to reproduce meteorological variables, with nonlocal (local) PBL schemes producing better performance in the 2014 (2015) study period. All PBL schemes in general overestimate (>100%) daytime turbulent fluxes. Thermodynamic (daytime) vertical structures are better predicted than mechanical (nocturnal) ones. The local MYNN2.5 scheme showed the overall best performance for PBLH prediction, mainly at night.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Models for Ceramic Additive Manufacturing

This was a collaborative effort between LLNS, as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and RSI, to develop predictive criteria for evaluating the structural integrity of new part designs during the thermal process. The DOE Small Business Voucher project was originally designated as a 12-month project and consisted of four (4) major tasks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA language models predict mutations that improve RNA function

Structured RNA lies at the heart of many central biological processes, from gene expression to catalysis. RNA structure prediction is not yet possible due to a lack of high-quality reference data associated with organismal phenotypes that could inform RNA function. We present GARNET (Gtdb Acquired RNa with Environmental Temperatures), a new database for RNA structural and functional analysis anchored to the Genome Taxonomy Database (GTDB). GARNET links RNA sequences to experimental and predicted optimal growth temperatures of GTDB reference organisms. Using GARNET, we develop sequence- and structure-aware RNA generative models, with overlapping triplet tokenization providing optimal encoding for a GPT-like model. Leveraging hyperthermophilic RNAs in GARNET and these RNA generative models, we identify mutations in ribosomal RNA that confer increased thermostability to the Escherichia coli ribosome. The GTDB-derived data and deep learning models presented here provide a foundation for understanding the connections between RNA sequence, structure, and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Out-of-distribution detection with non-parametric density estimation for models predicting processing history of uranium ore concentrates

The rapid advancement in machine learning (ML) and computer vision (CV) coincides with the growth of interest in deploying these ML/CV models in numerous fields from medicine to social science. Similar to those areas, we have witnessed a great number of works in materials science employing ML/CV models – neural networks in particular – in their studies in recent years. These models have proven to obtain accurate performance in various tasks. However, these models struggle to attain a similar performance when encountering test samples coming from a distribution that is different from the training set. More importantly, they fail without providing any warning to the users. Therefore, we propose a framework for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples to alert users when a human intervention might be necessary in this work. Specifically, we explore the use of a non-parametric density estimation method to detect OOD samples. Here, we assess OOD detection capability of the proposed framework on ML models developed for categorizing precipitation routes of U 3 O 8 when encountering OOD datasets that contain samples (1) undergone different imaging acquisition process, (2) undergone different material synthesis process, and (3) different materials than ID set. Through those experiments, we achieve an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of at least 91% on average in detecting OOD samples. With minimal overhead cost and superior performance, the proposed framework enables a reliable and safe system when deploying in real-world scenarios.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards testing the theory of gravity with DESI: summary statistics, model predictions and future simulation requirements

Shortly after its discovery, General Relativity (GR) was applied to predict the behavior of our Universe on the largest scales, and later became the foundation of modern cosmology. Its validity has been verified on a range of scales and environments from the Solar system to merging black holes. However, experimental confirmations of GR on cosmological scales have so far lacked the accuracy one would hope for — its applications on those scales being largely based on extrapolation and its validity there sometimes questioned in the shadow of the discovery of the unexpected cosmic acceleration. Future astronomical instruments surveying the distribution and evolution of galaxies over substantial portions of the observable Universe, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), will be able to measure the fingerprints of gravity and their statistical power will allow strong constraints on alternatives to GR. In this paper, based on a set of N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogs, we study the predictions of a number of traditional and novel summary statistics beyond linear redshift distortions in two well-studied modified gravity models — chameleon f(R) gravity and a braneworld model — and the potential of testing these deviations from GR using DESI. These summary statistics employ a wide array of statistical properties of the galaxy and the underlying dark matter field, including two-point and higher-order statistics, environmental dependence, redshift space distortions and weak lensing. We find that they hold promising power for testing GR to unprecedented precision. The major future challenge is to make realistic, simulation-based mock galaxy catalogs for both GR and alternative models to fully exploit the statistic power of the DESI survey (by matching the volumes and galaxy number densities of the mocks to those in the real survey) and to better understand the impact of key systematic effects. Using these, we identify future simulation and analysis needs for gravity tests using DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Hypoxia and Phytoplankton Production in Chesapeake Bay: Model Prediction and Assessment

In this study, the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen-rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay-wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transport model predictions of 225 Ac production cross sections via energetic p, d and α irradiation of 232 Th targets

Monte Carlo transport codes PHITS and MCNP6 were used to calculate the production cross sections of 225,227 Ac, 227,229 Th, 223,225 Ra, and 229,230,231 Pa via the bombardment of a 232 Th target with energetic protons, deuterons, and α-particles. The incident projectile energies ranged between 10 and 800 MeV/nucleon. When possible, the predicted production cross sections were compared with the available experimental data and other predictions. Here, the degree of the codes’ abilities to match the measured data provides a qualitative assessment of the codes’ abilities to predict data from similar, but unmeasured, projectile/target systems. In addition, a comparison between calculated cross sections and data may provide insight into possible improvements in the physics models employed by those transport codes.

223Ra↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Encounter of the Parker Solar Probe and a Comet-like Object Near the Sun: Model Predictions and Measurements

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) aims to explore the nascent solar wind close to the Sun. Meanwhile, PSP is also expected to encounter small objects like comets and asteroids. Here, we survey the ephemerides to find the chance of a recent encounter and then model the interaction between released dusty plasmas and solar wind plasmas. On 2019 September 2, a comet-like object, the 322P/Solar and Heliosphere Observatory, just passed its perihelion flying to a heliocentric distance of 0.12 au and swept by PSP at a relative distance as close as 0.025 au. We present the dynamics of the dust particles released from 322P, forming a curved dust tail. Along the path of PSP in the simulated inner heliosphere, the states of plasma and magnetic field are sampled and illustrated, with the magnetic field sequences from simulation results being compared directly with the in situ measurements from PSP. Through the comparison, we suggest that 322P might be at a deficient activity level releasing limited dusty plasmas on its way to becoming a "rock comet." We also present images of solar wind streamers as recorded by the Wide-field Imager for Solar Probe Plus, showing an indication of dust bombardment for the images superposed with messy trails. We observe from the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph that 322P was transiting from a dimming region to a relatively bright streamer during its perihelion passage, and perform a simulation to confirm that 322P was flying from relatively faster to slower solar wind streams, modifying the local plasma states of the streams.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metabolic model predictions enable targeted microbiome manipulation through precision prebiotics

While numerous health-beneficial interactions between host and microbiota have been identified, there is still a lack of targeted approaches for modulating these interactions. Thus, we here identify precision prebiotics that specifically modulate the abundance of a microbiome member species of interest. In the first step, we show that defining precision prebiotics by compounds that are only taken up by the target species but no other species in a community is usually not possible due to overlapping metabolic niches. Subsequently, we use metabolic modeling to identify precision prebiotics for a two-member Caenorhabditis elegans microbiome community comprising the immune-protective target species Pseudomonas lurida MYb11 and the persistent colonizer Ochrobactrum vermis MYb71. We experimentally confirm four of the predicted precision prebiotics, L-serine, L-threonine, D-mannitol, and γ-aminobutyric acid, to specifically increase the abundance of MYb11. L-serine was further assessed in vivo, leading to an increase in MYb11 abundance also in the worm host. Overall, our findings demonstrate that metabolic modeling is an effective tool for the design of precision prebiotics as an important cornerstone for future microbiome-targeted therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular Modeling Predicts Novel Antibody Escape Mutations in the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Fusion Glycoprotein

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes severe disease in young infants, particularly those with heart or lung diseases or born prematurely. Because no vaccine is currently available, monoclonal antibodies are used to prevent severe RSV disease in high-risk infants. While it is known that RSV evolves to avoid recognition by antibodies, screening tools that can predict which changes to the virus may lead to antibody resistance are greatly needed.

molecular modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene-informed decomposition model predicts lower soil carbon loss due to persistent microbial adaptation to warming

Abstract Soil microbial respiration is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate and carbon (C) cycle feedbacks. However, its feedbacks to climate warming and underlying microbial mechanisms are still poorly understood. Here we show that the temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration ( Q 10 ) in a temperate grassland ecosystem persistently decreases by 12.0 ± 3.7% across 7 years of warming. Also, the shifts of microbial communities play critical roles in regulating thermal adaptation of soil respiration. Incorporating microbial functional gene abundance data into a microbially-enabled ecosystem model significantly improves the modeling performance of soil microbial respiration by 5–19%, and reduces model parametric uncertainty by 55–71%. In addition, modeling analyses show that the microbial thermal adaptation can lead to considerably less heterotrophic respiration (11.6 ± 7.5%), and hence less soil C loss. If such microbially mediated dampening effects occur generally across different spatial and temporal scales, the potential positive feedback of soil microbial respiration in response to climate warming may be less than previously predicted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward a Generalizable Prediction Model of Molten Salt Mixture Density with Chemistry‐Informed Transfer Learning

Optimally designing applications of molten salts requires knowledge of their thermophysical properties over a wide range of temperatures and compositions. There exist significant gaps in existing databases and this data can be challenging to experimentally measure due to high temperatures, salt corrosivity, and salt hygroscopicity. Existing databases have been used to create Redlich–Kister (RK) models for mixture density showing improved accuracy with respect to ideal mixing assumptions, but these models require subcomponent data measurements for each new system, therefore lacking generality. In order to address generalizability and data sparsity, a transfer learning procedure is proposed to train deep neural networks (DNNs) using a combination of semi‐empirical relationships (RK), data from the thermophysical arm of the molten salt thermal properties database and universal ab initio properties of component mixtures taken from the joint automated repository for various integrated simulations (JARVIS) classical force‐field inspired descriptors database to predict density in molten salts. Herein, it is shown that DNNs predict molten salt density with an r 2 over 0.99 and a mean absolute percentage error under 1%, outperforming alternative methods.

inorganic materials↗
DOE OSTI2022

A novel methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a composite score: Prediction model development and validation

Abstract Background An integrated score that globally assesses perioperative pain experience and rationally weights each component has not yet been developed. Methods A development dataset specific to adult Chinese patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery was obtained from PAIN OUT (1985 qualified patients of 2244). A more recent validation dataset obeying the same conditions was obtained from the Chinese Anaesthesia Shared‐database Platform (1004 qualified patients of 1032). Outcomes were assessed using the International Pain Outcomes Questionnaire (IPO‐Q), which comprises key patient‐level outcomes of perioperative pain management, including pain experience and perceptions of care. Using principal component analysis and regression models, a composite score (CS) was inferred to integrate pain experience. The discrimination of the CS for dissatisfaction and desire for more pain treatment was compared with that of the worst pain score. Results A CS was developed from the 12 items of the IPO‐Q regarding pain experience. The weight for calculating the CS was worst pain 11, least pain 17, time spent in severe pain 11, interference with activity in bed 9, interference with breathing deeply or coughing 10, interference with sleep 9, anxiety 12, helplessness 12, nausea 0, drowsiness 2, itch 5 and dizziness 2. In external validation, the CS indicated superior discrimination to the worst pain in predicting dissatisfaction ( p < 0.001) and desire for more pain treatment ( p < 0.001). Conclusions This study introduced a methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a CS, which was based on the weight of each item. Significance This novel methodology sheds additional light on the riveting issue of carefully integrating several measures into a composite endpoint, which may be useful for quality improvement purposes when addressing the impact of a change in clinical practice.

Jiang, Bailin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twinning and Predictive Modeling of Traffic for Safe, Efficient, and Reliable Intersections

Over the last decade, the advances in connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) have far surpassed the technological realm of transportation infrastructure. There is a growing need to have a technologically commensurate transportation infrastructure to enable safe and reliable movement of goods and people. The recent creation of Advanced Research Projects Agency - Infrastructure (ARPA-I) through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has further amplified the need to revolutionize the transportation infrastructure system in the US. This need is perhaps felt most at traffic intersections, as more than 50 percent of the combined total of fatal and injury crashes occur at or near intersections. The proposed concept of Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) is aimed at bridging this technological gap by building a real-time digital twin of traffic by fusing detections from sensors installed at the intersection. This digital twin can then empower a wide variety of applications such as smart traffic signals or infrastructure-to-everything (I2X) communications. Smart signaling can help avoid crashes through early-prediction, while I2X can augment the CAV sensors under uncertain driving conditions and provide connected vehicles (CVs) with traffic information they can use to optimize their travel.

connected vehicles↗