Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Subsurface Emission Effects in AMSR-E Measurements: Implications for Land Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrieval

An analysis of land surface microwave emission time series shows that the characteristic diurnal signature associated with subsurface emission in sandy deserts carry over to arid and semi-arid region worldwide. Prior work found that diurnal variation of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperatures in deserts was small relative to International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project land surface temperature (LST) variation and that the difference varied with surface type and was largest in sand sea regions. Here we find more widespread subsurface emission effects in Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) measurements. The AMSR-E orbit has equator crossing times near 01:30 and 13 :30 local time, resulting in sampling when near-surface temperature gradients are likely to be large and amplifying the influence of emission depth on effective emitting temperature relative to other factors. AMSR-E measurements are also temporally coincident with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST measurements, eliminating time lag as a source of LST uncertainty and reducing LST errors due to undetected clouds. This paper presents monthly global emissivity and emission depth index retrievals for 2003 at 11, 19, 37, and 89 GHz from AMSR-E, MODIS, and SSM/I time series data. Retrieval model fit error, stability, self-consistency, and land surface modeling results provide evidence for the validity of the subsurface emission hypothesis and the retrieval approach. An analysis of emission depth index, emissivity, precipitation, and vegetation index seasonal trends in northern and southern Africa suggests that changes in the emission depth index may be tied to changes in land surface moisture and vegetation conditions

Galantowicz, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2019

climextremes v0.2.1

Software package for R and Python for analysis of extremes in climate data. Functions for fitting GEV and POT (via point process fitting) models for extremes in climate data, providing return values, return probabilities, and return periods for stationary and nonstationary models. Also provides differences in return values and differences in log return probabilities for contrasts of covariate values. Functions for estimating risk ratios for event attribution analyses, including uncertainty. Under the hood, many of the functions use functions from 'extRemes', including for fitting the statistical models.

Krishnan, Harinarayan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗
NASA NTRS1997

Advanced Models of Accretion Disk Atmospheres and Spectra for Close Binary Stars

This work led to the development of code for fitting models to data, and to an understanding of the nature of the models which enabled a more rapid search of 'parameter space' for optimal fits to spectral data sets. The code was used to find optimal fits to IUE spectra of quiescent dwarf novae that have been reported to show evidence for the white dwarf. The models consisted of a white dwarf component and an accretion disk with boundary conditions appropriate for the choice of the white dwarf. The preliminary work has strengthened the initial impression that accretion disk spectra can mimic the appearance of white dwarf spectra in the short-wavelength ultraviolet, so that additional constraints (such as distance) are needed to distinguish to two cases.

Wade, Richard A.↗
DOE OSTI2016

In situ synchrotron powder diffraction study of the setting reaction kinetics of magnesium-potassium phosphate cements

This work reports a kinetic study of the formation of magnesium-potassium phosphate cements accomplished using in-situ synchrotron powder diffraction. The reaction: MgO + KH{sub 2}PO{sub 4} + 5H{sub 2}O → MgKPO{sub 4} · 6H{sub 2}O was followed in situ in the attempt of contributing to explain the overall mechanism and assess the influence of periclase (MgO) grain size and calcination temperature (1400-1600 °C) on the reaction kinetics. Numerical kinetic parameters for the setting reaction have been provided for the first time. The best fit to the kinetic data was obtained using a weighted nonlinear model fitting method with two kinetic equations, representing two consecutive, partially overlapping processes. MgO decomposition could be described by a first order (F1) model followed by a Jander diffusion (D3) controlled model. Crystallization of the product of reaction was modelled using an Avrami model (A{sub n}) followed by a first order (F1) chemical reaction. A reaction mechanism accounting for such results has been proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1990

A model of Saturn's magnetic field based on all available data

A model of Saturn's magnetic field, called Saturn Pioneer Voyager (SPV), is developed on the basis of an analysis of three sets of data: those from the Pioneer 11, the Voyager 1, and the Voyager 2 magnetometers. It is shown that the SPV model fits the data observed between 1.3 and 8.0 Saturn radii from the planet's center with a 1.13 percent weighted rms average of the percent differences between the observed and modeled fields, which is substantially better than the fits yielded by any of the previous models.

Davis, Leverett, Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Measurements and Simulations of Neutron Emission Versus Deuterium Filling Pressure in Plasma Focus Device PF-24

A series of experiments were carried out using the middle energy (dense) plasma focus device PF-24 with deuterium as a working gas under pressure in a range between 2 and 5 mbar for 17 kV of charging voltage. The relationship between these operating deuterium pressures in reference to the total neutron yield (Y{sub n}) was estimated. The 5-phase Lee code was used to simulate the measured discharge current and neutron yield (Y{sub n}) using a phenomenological beam-target neutron generating mechanism, which was incorporated in the model. Comparison of the Y{sub n} versus pressure using fitted model parameters was made at each point of pressure. The good agreement between measured and computed Y{sub n} values was achieved for discharges with lower neutron emission. The measured Y{sub n} (below 2.6 × 10{sup 9} n/discharge—the median value) has been reproducible by the model for 73% of simulated discharges, while above the median value its prediction were incorrect. The kinetic plasma parameters which were measured and computed using the Lee code for different pressures are: the time to a current sheath collapse (t{sub c}), the average axial current sheath velocity (v{sub z}) and the so called velocity factor (RF). Good agreement was found in the whole range of deuterium pressures between the computed and measured results for these kinematic quantities. Presented findings in this work suggest that the character of neutron emission is more complex than it would seem from classical interpretation of neutron production based on a beam-target model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crust and Upper Mantle Structure Beneath the Eastern United States

Abstract The Eastern United States (EUS) has a complex geological history and hosts several seismic active regions. We investigate the subsurface structure beneath the broader EUS. To produce reliable images of the subsurface, we simultaneously invert smoothed P‐wave receiver functions, Rayleigh‐wave phase and group velocity measurements, and Bouguer gravity observations for the 3D shear‐wave speed. Using surface‐wave observations (3–250 s) and spatially smoothed receiver functions, our velocity models are robust, reliable, and rich in detail. The shear‐wave velocity models fit all three types of observations well. The resulting velocity model for the eastern U.S. shows thinner crust beneath New England, the east coast, and the Mississippi Embayment (ME). A relatively thicker crust was found beneath the stable North America craton. A relatively slower upper mantle was imaged beneath New England, the east coast, and western ME. A comparison of crust thickness derived from our model against four recent published models shows first‐order consistency. A relatively small upper mantle low‐speed region correlates with a published P‐wave analysis that has associated the anomaly with a 75 Ma kimberlite volcanic site in Kentucky. We also explored the relationship between the subsurface structure and seismicity in the eastern U.S. We found that earthquakes often locate near regions with seismic velocity variations, but not universally. Not all regions of significant subsurface wave speed changes are loci of seismicity. A weak correlation between upper mantle shear velocity and earthquake focal mechanism has been observed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atomic structure of an FeCrMoCBY metallic glass revealed by high energy x-ray diffraction

Amorphous bulk metallic glasses with the composition Fe 48 Cr 15 Mo 14 C 15 B 6 Y 2 have been of interest due to their special mechanical and electronic properties, including corrosion resistance, high yield-strength, large elasticity, catalytic performance, and soft ferromagnetism. Here, we apply a reverse Monte Carlo technique to unravel the atomic structure of these glasses. The pair-distribution functions for various atomic pairs are computed based on the high-energy x-ray diffraction data we have taken from an amorphous sample. Monte Carlo cycles are used to move the atomic positions until the model reproduces the experimental pair-distribution function. The resulting fitted model is consistent with our ab initio simulations of the metallic glass. Our study contributes to the understanding of functional properties of Fe-based bulk metallic glasses driven by disorder effects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanistic Modeling of Creep and Aging for Time Extrapolation in LPBF 316 SS - LANL

A polycrystal constitutive model was extended to quantify the effects heterogeneity in the microstructure, porosity, and internal stresses on the mechanical response (creep, tensile) of 316H steel processed by additive manufacturing. The starting point is a recently developed and fully calibrated advanced microstructuresensitive mechanistic constitutive model fit to literature data pertaining to conventionally processed steels. The model is embedded within the full field fast Fourier transform framework (LApx) and several hundred simulations were performed. Synthetic microstructures with different grain aspect ratios were generated using the Neper package to study the role of grain morphology on the mechanical responses. The effect of initial cell interior dislocation density, cell-wall density, precipitate content, porosity, and internal stresses on creep rates are quantified for different polycrystalline microstructures. The study allowed to prospectively quantify the role of distinct features of the microstructure on the mechanical response under tension and creep loading scenarios. Critically it is found that minor anisotropies in the tensile response of samples, emanating from the aspect ratio of grains correlated into significant differences in creep rate as a function of loading directions. The study also allows to identify initial microstructure porosities below which the materials response only moderately degraded by the initial microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multi-wavelength observations of GRB 111228A and implications for the fireball and its environment

Observations of very early multi-wavelength afterglows are critical to reveal the properties of the radiating fireball and its environment as well as the central engine of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). We report our optical observations of GRB 111228A from 95 s to about 50 hr after the burst trigger and investigate its properties of the prompt gamma-rays and the ambient medium using our data and the data from the Swift and Fermi missions. Our joint optical and X-ray spectral fits to the afterglow data show that the ambient medium features a low dust-to-gas ratio. Incorporating the energy injection effect, our best fit to the afterglow light curves with the standard afterglow model via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique shows that ϵ{sub e}=(6.9±0.3)×10{sup −2}, ϵ{sub B}=(7.73±0.62)×10{sup −6},E{sub K}=(6.32±0.86)×10{sup 53} erg, n=0.100±0.014 cm{sup −3}. The low medium density likely implies that the afterglow jet may be in a halo or in a hot ISM. A chromatic shallow decay segment observed in the optical and X-ray bands is well explained with the long-lasting energy injection from the central engine, which would be a magnetar with a period of about 1.92 ms inferred from the data. The E{sub p} of its time-integrated prompt gamma-ray spectrum is ∼26 KeV. Using the initial Lorentz factor (Γ{sub 0}=476{sub −237}{sup +225}) derived from our afterglow model fit, it is found that GRB 111228A satisfies the L{sub iso}−E{sub p,z}−Γ{sub 0} relation and bridges the typical GRBs and low luminosity GRBs in this relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

RELICS: A Strong Lens Model for SPT-CLJ0615–5746, a z = 0.972 Cluster

In this work, we present a lens model for the cluster SPT-CLJ0615-5746, which is the highest-redshift ( z = 0.972) system in the Reionization of Lensing Clusters Survey, making it the highest-redshift cluster for which a full, strong lens model is published. We identify three systems of multiply imaged lensed galaxies, two of which we spectroscopically confirm at z = 1.358 and z = 4.013, which we use as constraints for the model. We find a foreground structure at z ~ 0.4, which we include as a second cluster-sized halo in one of our models; however, two different statistical tests find the best-fit model consists of one cluster-sized halo combined with three individually optimized galaxy-sized halos, as well as contributions from the cluster galaxies themselves. We find the total projected mass density within r = 26 7 (the region where the strong lensing constraints exist) to be M ⊙ . If we extrapolate out to r 500 , our projected mass density is consistent with the mass inferred from weak lensing and from the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect ( M ~ 10 15 M ⊙ ). This cluster is lensing a previously reported z ~ 10 galaxy, which, if spectroscopically confirmed, will be the highest-redshift strongly lensed galaxy known.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Livingstone Model of a Main Propulsion System

Livingstone is a discrete, propositional logic-based inference engine that has been used for diagnosis of physical systems. We present a component-based model of a Main Propulsion System (MPS) and say how it is used with Livingstone (L2) in order to implement a diagnostic system for integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) for the Propulsion IVHM Technology Experiment (PITEX). We start by discussing the process of conceptualizing such a model. We describe graphical tools that facilitated the generation of the model. The model is composed of components (which map onto physical components), connections between components and constraints. A component is specified by variables, with a set of discrete, qualitative values for each variable in its local nominal and failure modes. For each mode, the model specifies the component's behavior and transitions. We describe the MPS components' nominal and fault modes and associated Livingstone variables and data structures. Given this model, and observed external commands and observations from the system, Livingstone tracks the state of the MPS over discrete time-steps by choosing trajectories that are consistent with observations. We briefly discuss how the compiled model fits into the overall PITEX architecture. Finally we summarize our modeling experience, discuss advantages and disadvantages of our approach, and suggest enhancements to the modeling process.

Bajwa, Anupa↗
NASA NTRS2017

ALMA Detection and Astrobiological Potential of Vinyl Cyanide on Titan

Recent simulations have indicated that vinyl cyanide is the best candidate molecule for the formation of cell membranes/vesicle structures in Titan's hydrocarbon-rich lakes and seas. Although the existence of vinyl cyanide (C2H3CN) on Titan was previously inferred using Cassini mass spectrometry, a definitive detection has been lacking until now. We report the first spectroscopic detection of vinyl cyanide in Titan's atmosphere, obtained using archival data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), collected from February to May 2014. We detect the three strongest rotational lines of C2H3CN in the frequency range of 230 to 232 GHz, each with greater than 4 sigma confidence. Radiative transfer modeling suggests that most of the C2H3CN emission originates at altitudes of approx. greater than 200 km, in agreement with recent photochemical models. The vertical column densities implied by our best-fitting models lie in the range of 3.7 x 10(exp 13) to 1.4 x 10(exp 14) cm(exp −2). The corresponding production rate of vinyl cyanide and its saturation mole fraction imply the availability of sufficient dissolved material to form approx. 10(exp 7) cell membranes/cu cm in Titan's sea Ligeia Mare.

Palmer, Maureen Y.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Uniqueness of a solution of a steady state photochemical problem: Applications to Mars

Based on the conservation of chemical elements in chemical reactions, a rule is proved that the number of boundary conditions given by densities and/or nonzero velocities should not be less than the number of chemical elements in the system, and the boundary conditions for species given by densities and velocities should include all elements in the system. Applications of this rule to Mars are considered. It is shown that the problem of the CO2-H2O chemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars, say, in the range of 0-80 km does not have a unique solution, if only CO2 and H2O densities are given at the lower boundary, and the remaining boundary conditions are fluxes. Two examples of models of this type are discussed. Two models of the photochemistry of the Martian atmosphere, with and without nitrogen chemistry, are considered. The oxygen nonthermal escape ratio of 1.2 x 10(exp 8)/cu cm/s is given at 240 km and is balanced with the total hydrogen escape rate within an uncertainty of 1% for both models. Both models fit the measured O2 and CO mixing ratios, the O3 abundance, and the O2 1.27-micrometer dayglow almost within the uncertainties of the measured values, though the model without nitrogen chemistry fits better. The importance of nitrogen chemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars depends on a fine balance between production of NO and N in the upper atmosphere which is not known within the required accuracy.

Krasnopolsky, Vladimir A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Functional Principal Component Analysis of Radio–Optical Reference Frame Tie

The Gaia optical reference frame is intrinsically undefined with respect to global orientation and spin, so it needs to be anchored in the radio-based International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) to provide a referenced and quasi-inertial celestial coordinate system. The link between the two fundamental frames is realized through two samples of distant extragalactic sources, mostly active galactic nuclei and quasars, but only the smaller sample of radio-loud ICRF sources with optical counterparts is available to determine the mutual orientation. The robustness of this link can be mathematically formulated in the framework of functional principal component analysis using a set of vector spherical harmonics to represent the differences in celestial positions of the common objects. The weakest eigenvectors are computed, which describe the greatest deficiency of the link. The deficient or poorly determined terms are specific vector fields on the sphere that carry the largest errors of absolute astrometry using Gaia in reference to the ICRF. This analysis provides guidelines for the future development of the ICRF maximizing the accuracy of the link over the entire celestial sphere. A measure of the robustness of a least-squares solution, which can be applied to any linear model fitting problem, is introduced to help discriminate between reference frame tie models of different degrees.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Non-local gravity and comparison with observational datasets

We study the cosmological predictions of two recently proposed non-local modifications of General Relativity. Both models have the same number of parameters as ΛCDM, with a mass parameter m replacing the cosmological constant. We implement the cosmological perturbations of the non-local models into a modification of the CLASS Boltzmann code, and we make a full comparison to CMB, BAO and supernova data. We find that the non-local models fit these datasets very well, at the same level as ΛCDM. Among the vast literature on modified gravity models, this is, to our knowledge, the only example which fits data as well as ΛCDM without requiring any additional parameter. For both non-local models parameter estimation using Planck +JLA+BAO data gives a value of H{sub 0} slightly higher than in ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗