Validation of using the EPP model to calibrate and tabulate strength with loading conditions in tamped RMI experiments
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Voorhees, Travis John [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
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Results for “Model calibration”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Quantification of Type I Interferon Inhibition by Viral Proteins: Ebola Virus as a Case Study
Type I interferons (IFNs) are cytokines with both antiviral properties and protective roles in innate immune responses to viral infection. They induce an antiviral cellular state and link innate and adaptive immune responses. Yet, viruses have evolved different strategies to inhibit such host responses. One of them is the existence of viral proteins which subvert type I IFN responses to allow quick and successful viral replication, thus, sustaining the infection within a host. We propose mathematical models to characterise the intra-cellular mechanisms involved in viral protein antagonism of type I IFN responses, and compare three different molecular inhibition strategies. We study the Ebola viral protein, VP35, with this mathematical approach. Approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo, together with experimental data and the mathematical models proposed, are used to perform model calibration, as well as model selection of the different hypotheses considered. Finally, we assess if model parameters are identifiable and discuss how such identifiability can be improved with new experimental data.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Empirical and Face Validity of Software Maintenance Defect Models Used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory
At the Mission Design and Navigation Software Group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory we make use of finite exponential based defect models to aid in maintenance planning and management for our widely used critical systems. However a number of pragmatic issues arise when applying defect models for a post-release system in continuous use. These include: how to utilize information from problem reports rather than testing to drive defect discovery and removal effort, practical model calibration, and alignment of model assumptions with our environment.
software reliability↗
Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment
A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.
ATAP↗
Validation and Calibration of Energy Models with Real Vehicle Data from Chassis Dynamometer Experiments
Accurate estimation of vehicle fuel consumption typically requires detailed modeling of complex internal powertrain dynamics, often resulting in computationally intensive simulations. However, many transportation applications-such as traffic flow modeling, optimization, and control-require simplified models that are fast, interpretable, and easy to implement, while still maintaining fidelity to physical energy behavior. This work builds upon a recently developed model reduction pipeline that derives physics-like energy models from high-fidelity Autonomie vehicle simulations. These reduced models preserve essential vehicle dynamics, enabling realistic fuel consumption estimation with minimal computational overhead. While the reduced models have demonstrated strong agreement with their Autonomie counterparts, previous validation efforts have been confined to simulation environments. This study extends the validation by comparing the reduced energy model's outputs against real-world vehicle data. Focusing on the MidSUV category, we tune the baseline Autonomie model to closely replicate the characteristics of a Toyota RAV4. We then assess the accuracy of the resulting reduced model in estimating fuel consumption under actual drive conditions. Our findings suggest that, when the reference Autonomie model is properly calibrated, the simplified model produced by the reduction pipeline can provide reliable, semi-principled fuel rate estimates suitable for large-scale transportation applications.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Advanced detonation shock dynamics (DSD) model and calibration
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates
Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.
uncertainty quantification↗
Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1
Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Validation of Calibrated k–ε Model Parameters for Jet-in-Crossflow
Previous efforts determined a set of calibrated, optimal model parameter values for Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations of a compressible jet in crossflow (JIC) using a $k–ε$ turbulence model. These parameters were derived by comparing simulation results to particle image velocimetry (PIV) data of a complementary JIC experiment under a limited set of flow conditions. Here, a $k–ε$ model using both nominal and calibrated parameters is validated against PIV data acquired from a much wider variety of JIC cases, including a realistic flight vehicle. The results from the simulations using the calibrated model parameters showed considerable improvements over those using the nominal values, even for cases that were not used in the calibration procedure that defined the optimal parameters. This improvement is demonstrated using a number of quality metrics that test the spatial alignment of the jet core, the magnitudes of multiple flow variables, and the location and strengths of vortices in the counter-rotating vortex cores on the PIV planes. These results suggest that the calibrated parameters have applicability well outside the specific flow case used in defining them and that with the right model parameters, RANS solutions for the JIC can be improved significantly over those obtained from the nominal model.
42 ENGINEERING↗
On the flow-stress model of Preston, Tonks, and Wallace - Observations, parameter constraints, and implementations (Rev. 1)
A detailed discussion about the PTW flow-stress model has been presented, including theoretical considerations, model calibrations to experimental data, and model implementations in LANL ASC hydro-codes. The main findings are: In order to reproduce the intended behavior of the PTW model at high strain rates, the following conditions on the model parameters need to be valid: y 1 ≥ s 0 and y 2 ≥ β ; When the conditions above are not satisfied, PTW and PTW_Mod1 have slightly different behavior in the phonon-drag regime, and should be treated as different models. PTW exhibits a discontinuity above the critical strain rate. PTW_Mod1 does not show such a discontinuity but implies a different strain-rate dependence at high strain rates. Examples of this behavior include older calibrations for stainless steel and depleted uranium; In the thermal-activation regime, some flexibility was introduced in the original PTW model to allow for different rate-dependent behaviors at intermediate strain rates. Example: copper. However, many material calibrations do not require this extra flexibility, and the complexity and ambiguity of the intended behavior can be partially blamed for the inconsistent model implementations across ASC codes; The limit for the material constant p going to zero is well defined and leads to a simplified flow-stress equation, discontinuity free; Modern calibrations of the PTW parameters are done using Impala. Constraints on the PTW parameters are enforced; Implementation of the PTW model in LANL ASC hydro-codes suffered of several shortcom ings. At the time of writing, FLAG and xRAGE contain consistent and correct implemen tations of the PTW and PTW_Mod1 models. Corresponding changes to Pagosa have been suggested.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Strength of porous α-SiO 2 in a shock loaded environment: Calibration via Richtmyer–Meshkov instability and validation via Mach lens
The strength of brittle porous media is of concern in numerous applications, for example, earth penetration, crater formation, and blast loading. Thus, it is of importance to possess techniques that allow for constitutive model calibration within the laboratory setting. The goal of the current work is to demonstrate an experimental technique allowing for strength assessment of porous media subjected to shock loading, which can be implemented into pressure-dependent yield surfaces within numerical simulation schemes. As a case study, the deviatoric response of distended α-SiO 2 has been captured in a tamped Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) environment at a pressure regime of 4–10 GPa. Hydrocode simulations were used to interpret RMI experimental data, and a resulting pressure-dependent yield surface akin to the often employed modified Drucker–Prager model was calibrated. Simulations indicate that the resulting jet length generated by the RMI is sensitive to the porous media strength, thereby providing a feasible experimental platform capable of capturing the pressurized granular deviatoric response. Furthermore, in efforts to validate the RMI-calibrated strength model, a set of Mach-lens experiments was performed and simulated with the calibrated pressure-dependent yield surface. Excellent agreement between the resulting Mach-lens length in experiment and simulation provides additional confidence to the RMI yield-surface calibration scheme.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Power Law Hardening Fit for Inconel 718 Material
The objective of this work is to create an accurate elastic-plastic J2 plasticity model calibration for the Inconel 718 material at room temperature for use in finite element models. This calibration was made using a power-law hardening model of form σ = σ y + $Aε^{n}_{p}$ where A and n are empirically determined constants, and σ y is the proportional limit.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Uniting Surface Properties With Hydrodynamic Roughness in Shallow Overland Flow Models
Describing flow resistance from the properties of an underlying surface is a challenge in surface hydrology. Runoff models must specify a resistance formulation or “roughness scheme”—describing the functional relationship between flow resistance and flow depth/velocity—and its parameters. Uncertainty in runoff predictions derives from both the selected roughness scheme (e.g., Darcy Weisbach, Manning's, or laminar flow equations), and its parameterization with a roughness coefficient (e.g., Manning's n). Both choices are informed by model calibration to data, usually discharge, and, if available, velocity. In this study, a Saint Venant Equation-based runoff model is calibrated to discharge and velocity data from 112 rainfall simulator experiments. The results are used to identify the optimal roughness scheme among four widely-used options for each experiment, and to explore whether surface properties can be used to select the optimal roughness scheme and its coefficient. Among the tested roughness schemes, a transitional flow equation provided the best fit to the plurality of experiments. The most suitable roughness scheme for a given experiment was not related to measured surface properties. Regression models predicted the calibrated roughness coefficients with adjusted values between 0.48 and 0.54, depending on the roughness scheme used. Litter cover was the best predictor of the roughness coefficient, followed by soil cover and average canopy gap size. The results suggest that selection of an optimal roughness scheme based on surface properties alone remains difficult, but that once a scheme is selected, roughness coefficients can be estimated from surface properties.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties
Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet
We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A variational phase-field model For ductile fracture with coalescence dissipation
A novel phase-field model for ductile fracture is presented. The model is developed within a consistent variational framework in the context of finite-deformation kinematics. A novel coalescence dissipation introduces a new coupling mechanism between plasticity and fracture by degrading the fracture toughness as the equivalent plastic strain increases. The proposed model is compared with a recent alternative where plasticity and fracture are strongly coupled. Several representative numerical examples motivate specific modeling choices. In particular, a linear crack geometric function provides an “unperturbed” ductile response prior to crack initiation, and Lorentz-type degradation functions ensure that the critical fracture strength remains independent of the phase-field regularization length. In addition, the response of the model is demonstrated to converge with a vanishing phase-field regularization length. Additionally, the model is then applied to calibrate and simulate a three-point bending experiment of an aluminum alloy specimen with a complex geometry. The effect of the proposed coalescence dissipation coupling on simulations of the experiment is first investigated in a two-dimensional plane strain setting. The calibrated model is then applied to a three-dimensional calculation, where the calculated load-deflection curves and the crack trajectory show excellent agreement with experimental observations. Finally, the model is applied to simulate crack nucleation and growth in a specimen from a recent Sandia Fracture Challenge.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system
Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization
In this paper, we apply a new model to account for varying background radiation in radiological source localization. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously infers background and source location parameters without requiring separate estimation of the background radiation at each detector location. We employ a simplified photon transport model to reduce the computational expense of Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model accuracy by localizing a cesium-137 source in a simulated city block, and we analyze experimental field measurements with varying background. In both cases, the model provides sufficient fidelity that we can locate the source while simultaneously estimating background radiation.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗