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NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2005

PlanWorks: A Debugging Environment for Constraint Based Planning Systems

Numerous planning and scheduling systems employ underlying constraint reasoning systems. Debugging such systems involves the search for errors in model rules, constraint reasoning algorithms, search heuristics, and the problem instance (initial state and goals). In order to effectively find such problems, users must see why each state or action is in a plan by tracking causal chains back to part of the initial problem instance. They must be able to visualize complex relationships among many different entities and distinguish between those entities easily. For example, a variable can be in the scope of several constraints, as well as part of a state or activity in a plan; the activity can arise as a consequence of another activity and a model rule. Finally, they must be able to track each logical inference made during planning. We have developed PlanWorks, a comprehensive system for debugging constraint-based planning and scheduling systems. PlanWorks assumes a strong transaction model of the entire planning process, including adding and removing parts of the constraint network, variable assignment, and constraint propagation. A planner logs all transactions to a relational database that is tailored to support queries for of specialized views to display different forms of data (e.g. constraints, activities, resources, and causal links). PlanWorks was specifically developed for the Extensible Universal Remote Operations Planning Architecture (EUROPA(sub 2)) developed at NASA, but the underlying principles behind PlanWorks make it useful for many constraint-based planning systems. The paper is organized as follows. We first describe some fundamentals of EUROPA(sub 2). We then describe PlanWorks' principal components. We then discuss each component in detail, and then describe inter-component navigation features. We close with a discussion of how PlanWorks is used to find model flaws.

Daley, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Vertical Error Characteristics of GOES-derived Winds: Description and Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Rao, P. Anil↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ES2Vec: Earth Science Metadata Suggestions and Analogical Reasoning

As the volume of text-based Earth science research grows, it is increasingly possible to discover latent relationships in the literature. However, traditional methodologies are restricted by limited computational capabilities and intractable problem spaces. Advancements in natural language processing (NLP) have allowed us to use an extensive Earth science corpus to create a domain-specific word vector model, Es2Vec, which we have used to surface latent relationships between Earth science concepts and generate improved keyword tags. Earth science metadata keyword assignment is a challenging problem. Dataset curators select appropriate keywords from the Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) set of keywords. The keywords an are integral part of the search and discovery of these datasets. Hence, the selection of keywords is crucial to increasing the discoverability of datasets. Utilizing machine learning techniques, we provide users with automated keyword suggestions to complement manual selection. We trained a machine learning model that leverages the semantic embedding ability of Word2Vec models to process abstracts and suggest relevant keywords. A user interface tool we built to assist data curators in the assignment of such keywords is also described.

word vectors↗

NASA NTRS1990

An endorsement-based approach to student modeling for planner-controlled intelligent tutoring systems

An approach is described to student modeling for intelligent tutoring systems based on an explicit representation of the tutor's beliefs about the student and the arguments for and against those beliefs (called endorsements). A lexicographic comparison of arguments, sorted according to evidence reliability, provides a principled means of determining those beliefs that are considered true, false, or uncertain. Each of these beliefs is ultimately justified by underlying assessment data. The endorsement-based approach to student modeling is particularly appropriate for tutors controlled by instructional planners. These tutors place greater demands on a student model than opportunistic tutors. Numerical calculi approaches are less well-suited because it is difficult to correctly assign numbers for evidence reliability and rule plausibility. It may also be difficult to interpret final results and provide suitable combining functions. When numeric measures of uncertainty are used, arbitrary numeric thresholds are often required for planning decisions. Such an approach is inappropriate when robust context-sensitive planning decisions must be made. A TMS-based implementation of the endorsement-based approach to student modeling is presented, this approach is compared to alternatives, and a project history is provided describing the evolution of this approach.

Murray, William R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Ride quality evaluation. IV - Models of subjective reaction to aircraft motion

The paper examines models of human reaction to the motions typically experienced on short-haul aircraft flights. Data are taken on the regularly scheduled flights of four commercial airlines - three airplanes and one helicopter. The data base consists of: (1) a series of motion recordings distributed over each flight, each including all six degrees of freedom of motion; temperature, pressure, and noise are also recorded; (2) ratings of perceived comfort and satisfaction from the passengers on each flight; (3) moment-by-moment comfort ratings from a test subject assigned to each airplane; and (4) overall comfort ratings for each flight from the test subjects. Regression models are obtained for prediction of rated comfort from rms values for six degrees of freedom of motion. It is shown that the model C = 2.1 + 17.1 T + 17.2 V (T = transverse acceleration, V = vertical acceleration) gives a good fit to the airplane data but is less acceptable for the helicopter data.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

NASA NTRS1971

On reliability modeling and analysis of ultrareliable fault-tolerant digital systems.

The processes of protective redundancy, namely, standby replacement (SR) redundancy and hybrid redundancy (a combination of SR and multiple-line voting redundancy), find application in the architecture of fault-tolerant digital computers and enable them to be ultrareliable and self-repairing. The claims to ultrareliability lead to the challenge of quantitatively evaluating and assigning a value to the probability of survival as a function of the mission durations intended. This note presents various mathematical models, and derives and displays quantitative evaluations of system reliability as a function of various mission parameters of interest to the system designer.

Mathur, F. P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Efficient eigenvalue assignment by state and output feedback with applications for large space structures

The erection and deployment of large flexible structures having thousands of degrees of freedom requires controllers based on new techniques of eigenvalue assignment that are computationally stable and more efficient. Scientists at NASA Langley Research Center have developed a novel and efficient algorithm for the eigenvalue assignment of large, time-invariant systems using full-state and output feedback. The objectives of this research were to improve upon the output feedback version of this algorithm, to produce a toolbox of MATLAB functions based on the efficient eigenvalue assignment algorithm, and to experimentally verify the algorithm and software by implementing controllers designed using the MATLAB toolbox on the phase 2 configuration of NASA Langley's controls-structures interaction evolutionary model, a laboratory model used to study space structures. Results from laboratory tests and computer simulations show that effective controllers can be designed using software based on the efficient eigenvalue assignment algorithm.

Vannell, Eric C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Spatio-temporal contextual classification based on Markov random field model

A contextural classifier based on a Markov random field model, which can utilize both spatial and temporal contexts, is investigated. Spatial and temporal neighbors are defined, and the class assignment of each pixel is assumed to be dependent only on the measurement vectors of itself and those of its spatial and temporal neighbors according to the Markov random field property. Only interpixel class dependency context is used in the classification. The joint prior probability of the classes of each pixel and its spatial and temporal neighbors are modeled by a Gibbs random field. The classification is performed in a recursive manner. Experiments with multi-temporal Thematic Mapper data show promising results.

Jeon, Byeungwoo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SimUAM: A Comprehensive Microsimulation Toolchain to Evaluate the Impact of Urban Air Mobility in Metropolitan Areas

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network? and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, the authors develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA): A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: Agranular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian simulator, (3) Flexible Engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe3): A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. Once the ground-air interface is modeled, the authors find that the market for UAM decreases across all network designs relative to models with static assumptions about transfer times. However, significant improvements can be made to balance the demand and optimize the networks for transfer time, likely increasing the number of benefited trips. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS1982

Modeling of thin film GaAs growth

A potential scaling Monte Carlo model of crystal growth is developed. The model is a modification of the solid-on-solid method for studying crystal growth in that potentials at surface sites are continuously updated on a time scale reflecting the surface events of migration, incorporation and evaporation. The model allows for B on A type of crystal growth and lattice disregistry by the assignment of potential values at various surface sites. The surface adatoms are periodically assigned a random energy from a Boltzmann distribution and this energy determines whether the adatoms evaporate, migrate or remain stationary during the sampling interval. For each addition or migration of an adatom, the surface potentials are adjusted to reflect the adsorption, migration or desorption potential changes.

Heinbockel, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space radiation health research, 1991-1992

The present volume is a collection of 227 abstracts of radiation research sponsored by the NASA Space Radiation Health Program for the period 1991-1992. Each abstract has been categorized within one of three discipline areas: Physics, Biology and Risk Assessment. Topic areas within each discipline have been assigned as follows: Physics - Atomic Physics, Theory, Cosmic Ray and Astrophysics, Experimental, Environments and Environmental Models, Solar Activity and Prediction, Experiments, Radiation Transport and Shielding, Theory and Model Development, Experimental Studies, and Instrumentation. Biology - Biology, Molecular Biology, Cellular Radiation Biology, Transformation, Mutation, Lethality, Survival, DNA Damage and Repair, Tissue, Organs, and Organisms, In Vivo/In Vitro Systems, Carcinogenesis and Life Shortening, Cataractogenesis, Genetics/Developmental, Radioprotectants, Plants, and Other Effects. Risk Assessment - Risk Assessment, Radiation Health and Epidemiology, Space Flight Radiation Health Physics, Inter- and Intraspecies Extrapolation and Radiation Limits and Standards. Section I contains refereed journals; Section II contains reports/meetings. Keywords and author indices are provided. A collection of abstracts spanning the period 1986-1990 was previously issued as NASA Technical Memorandum 4270.

Jablin, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Effects of damping on mode shapes, volume 2

Displacement, velocity, and acceleration admittances were calculated for a realistic NASTRAN structural model of space shuttle for three conditions: liftoff, maximum dynamic pressure and end of solid rocket booster burn. The realistic model of the orbiter, external tank, and solid rocket motors included the representation of structural joint transmissibilities by finite stiffness and damping elements. Data values for the finite damping elements were assigned to duplicate overall low-frequency modal damping values taken from tests of similar vehicles. For comparison with the calculated admittances, position and rate gains were computed for a conventional shuttle model for the liftoff condition. Dynamic characteristics and admittances for the space shuttle model are presented.

Gates, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Eigenstructure assignment for a thrust-vectored high angle-of-attack aircraft

Eigenstructure assignment is utilized to design flight control laws for a thrust-vectored aircraft at several different angles of attack. An interesting characteristic of the aircraft model is that the control distribution matrix is rank-deficient. Also, the effectiveness of the control inputs varies with the angle of attack. A pseudocontrol strategy is used to reduce the control space to two dimensions. After the eigenstructure assignment design is complete, the controller is mapped back to the original five-dimensional control space. The designs are shown to exhibit acceptable multivariable stability margins at the aircraft inputs.

Sobel, Kenneth M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stratocumulus cloud height variations determined from surface and satellite observations

Determination of cloud-top heights from satellite-inferred cloud-top temperatures is a relatively straightforward procedure for a well-behaved troposphere. The assumption of a monotonically decreasing temperature with increasing altitude is commonly used to assign a height to a given cloud-top temperature. In the hybrid bispectral threshold method, or HBTM, Minnis et al. (1987) assume that the lapse rate for the troposphere is -6.5/Kkm and that the surface temperature which calibrated this lapse rate is the 24 hour mean of the observed or modeled clear-sky, equivalent blackbody temperature. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) algorithm (Rossow et al., 1988) attempts a more realistic assignment of height by utilizing interpolations of analyzed temperature fields from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) to determine the temperature at a given level over the region of interest. Neither these nor other techniques have been tested to any useful extent. The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Intensive Field Observations (IFO) provide an excellent opportunity to assess satellite-derived cloud height results because of the availability of both direct and indirect cloud-top altitude data of known accuracy. The variations of cloud-top altitude during the Marine Stratocumulus IFO (MSIFO, June 29 to July 19, 1987) derived from surface, aircraft, and satellite data are examined.

Minnis, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Effect of Hindlimb Suspension on the Reproductive System of Young Male Rats

Colonization of space requires the ability to reproduce in reduced gravity. Following spaceflight, astronauts and male rats exhibit decreased testosterone (T). This has important implications as T effects the testes and accessory sex glands. To our knowledge no studies have examined the effects of spaceflight on accessory sex glands. Due to the rarity of spaceflight opportunities, ground models have been used to simulate weightlessness. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of long-term (21 d) weightlessness on the reproductive system of male rats. Weightlessness was simulated using the Morey-Holton hindlimb suspension (HLS) model. Age 10 week old, male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing (209.0 +9.7g) were randomly assigned (n=10/group) to either HLS or ambulatory control. In HLS rats, testes mass was 33% lower (p<0.05) than ambulatory controls. However, HLS had no effect on prostate (0.65 +0.09g vs 0.69 +0.12g) or seminal vesicles (1.01 +0.35g vs 0.75 +0.22g) weights compared to controls. The absence of effects on plasma T in this study contrasts previous reports of reduced plasma T in HLS male rats. This discrepancy may have been due to the age of animal and timing of sampling. T levels vary dramatically during testes development as well as within normal diurnal cycles. In young HLS rats, testes weight was reduced but not plasma T. Subsequently there was no effect on accessory sex glands. However, this may not be the case in older rats. More studies using standardized methods are needed to gain a better understanding of male reproduction function and capability in weightlessness. Funding provided by NASA.

Tou, Janet↗

NASA NTRS2015

Stratospheric Benzene and Hydrocarbon Aerosols Detected in Saturn's Auroral Regions

Context. Saturn's polar upper atmosphere exhibits significant auroral activity; however, its impact on stratospheric chemistry (i.e. the production of benzene and heavier hydrocarbons) and thermal structure remains poorly documented. Aims. We aim to bring new constraints on the benzene distribution in Saturn's stratosphere, to characterize polar aerosols (their vertical distribution, composition, thermal infrared optical properties), and to quantify the aerosols' radiative impact on the thermal structure. Methods. Infrared spectra acquired by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) on board Cassini in limb viewing geometry are analysed to derive benzene column abundances and aerosol opacity profiles over the 3 to 0.1 mbar pressure range. The spectral dependency of the haze opacity is assessed in the ranges 680-900 and 1360-1440 cm(exp −1). Then, a radiative climate model is used to compute equilibrium temperature profiles, with and without haze, given the haze properties derived from CIRS measurements. Results. On Saturn's auroral region (80 deg S), benzene is found to be slightly enhanced compared to its equatorial and mid-latitude values. This contrasts with the Moses & Greathouse (2005, J. Geophys. Res., 110, 9007) photochemical model, which predicts a benzene abundance 50 times lower at 80◦S than at the equator. This advocates for the inclusion of ion-related reactions in Saturn's chemical models. The polar stratosphere is also enriched in aerosols, with spectral signatures consistent with vibration modes assigned to aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons, and presenting similarities with the signatures observed in Titan's stratosphere. The aerosol mass loading at 80 deg S is estimated to be 1−4 × 10(exp −5) g cm(exp −2), an order of magnitude less than on Jupiter, which is consistent with the order of magnitude weaker auroral power at Saturn.We estimate that this polar haze warms the middle stratosphere by 6 K in summer and cools the upper stratosphere by 5 K in winter. Hence, aerosols linked with auroral activity can partly account for the warm polar hood observed in Saturn's summer stratosphere.

satellites↗

NASA NTRS2003

Tropospheric Wind Observations with Doppler Lidars

Simpson Weather Associates has continued its efforts on the tools which operate the DLSM's s line-of-sight output products file. Due to the long model run times which were revealed in last month's benchmark tests, four model options for the LSM's atmospheric inputs are now included in the LSM. The user can choose to either spatially and/or temporally interpolate the inputs or use inputs closest to the DWL shot. A problem in the terrain assignment from the GADS was corrected. A database conversion tool was added to convert DWL line-of-sight ASCII files into database format for the graphic display models. Efforts have continued in simulating DWL horizontal wind components using the DAO ficcm Nature Run. Experiments 2 and 3 (40 days worth) were completed and sent to the DAO for their use in bracketing OSSE experiments. In addition, in order to investigate differences in the way regional (MM5) and global scale (ECMWF T213) models treat features such as clouds and subgrid scale variability, a gridded Mesoscale Atmospheric Data Set (MADS) was created and ready to be incorporated into simulation experiments.

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