Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Mesoscale systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

Simulating the Effects of Surface Energy Partitioning on Convective Organization: Case Study and Observations in the US Southern Great Plains

Realistic cloud-resolving simulations were performed to study the effects of surface energy partitioning (surface sensible and latent heat fluxes) on the organization of isolated convection into larger mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) near the US Southern Great Plains. The role of cold pools in mediating surface-convection interactions was explored. Better organized MCSs tended to occur in the experiments with perturbed wetter soil (and more active vegetation), regardless of the effects of soil moisture on the diurnal timing of convective triggering. Wetter soil led to shallower boundary layers and more convective available potential energy than drier soil. The roles of cold pools on convection are lifecycle-stage dependent: A dry surface allows more numerous colliding cold pools, thereby aiding in convective triggering by reducing entrainment in the early stages, and providing gust-front uplift in later stages. However, horizontal propagation of the cold-pool density current can outrun the convective system, creating a slantwise updraft and thus weakening the gust front uplift in later stages. This effect calls into question previous cold pool parameterizations, in which the gust front uplift is mainly proportional to the negative buoyancy of cold air. Finally, both the model and observation show an enhancement of surface latent heat flux during the passage of a gust front at night, suggesting that a positive feedback between the surface and convection helps MCSs to persist into the nighttime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crucial roles of eastward propagating environments in the summer MCS initiation over the U.S. Great Plains

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently occur over the U.S. Great Plains during summer. An analysis using self-organizing map is conducted to identify four types of summer MCS initiation environments during 2004-2017. The first two types feature favorable large-scale environments at both upper and low levels, while Type-3 has favorable lower-level and surface conditions but unfavorable upper-level circulation, and Type-4 features the most unfavorable large-scale environments for MCS initiation. Despite the unfavorable large-scale environment, the convection-centered environments in Type-4 are favorable for MCS initiation and similar to the first two types, suggesting a role of sub-synoptic disturbances as an MCS precursor. All four types of the MCS initiation delineate a clear eastward propagating feature in many fields, such as upper-level potential vorticity/geopotential height, surface pressure and surface equivalent potential temperature, upstream up to 25°-longitude west of and ~36 hours before the MCS initiation. The propagating environments and local, non-propagating low-level moisture are found to be important in MCS initiation at the foothill of the Rocky Mountains, but over the central Great Plains, it is the coupling of dynamical and moisture anomalies associated with propagating waves that results in the MCS initiation. By tracking MCSs and mid-tropospheric perturbations (MPs), a type of sub-synoptic disturbances with Rocky Mountains origin, ~30% of MPs is associated with MCS initiation, mostly in Type-4. Although MPs are related to a small fraction of MCS initiation, MCSs that are associated with MPs tend to produce more rainfall in a larger area with a stronger convective intensity, suggesting MPs to be a source of intense MCSs in summer.

Song, Fengfei↗

Climatology of the Vertical Profiles of Polarimetric Radar Variables and Retrieved Microphysical Parameters in Continental/Tropical MCSs and Landfalling Hurricanes

Most existing cloud models tend to overestimate the size of cloud ice particles and underestimate their concentration. This emphasizes the need to provide a reliable observational reference to optimize cloud model performance, particularly in areas of high concentration of ice at high altitudes. The dual-polarization radars give the community a unique opportunity to quantify cloud ice with a good accuracy using polarimetric radar retrievals. Here, in this study, we utilize the network of operational WSR-88D radars to build a climatology of the vertical profiles of radar variables, such as radar reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z DR , and specific differential phase K DP as well as the radar-retrieved vertical profiles of ice water content (IWC) above the melting layer and liquid water content below it, mean volume diameter D m , and total number concentration N t of ice and liquid particles. Such climatology was created for continental/marine mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclones including hurricanes. The dataset includes 13 continental MCSs, 10 marine MCSs, and 11 tropical cyclones. Separate statistics of the “background” vertical profiles and the ones associated with high IWC aloft have been obtained in the course of this study. It is shown that continental MCSs exhibit larger size of ice in lower concentration aloft compared to the marine MCSs and especially tropical cyclones/hurricanes. A combination of high KDP and low Z aloft signifies lower D m , higher N t , and often substantial IWC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Behaviors of Intraseasonal Cloud Organization During DYNAMO/AMIE

This study investigates the organization of tropical convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the Dynamics of the MJO/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment field campaign. While it is known that tropical clouds can organize and impact the large-scale environment, how this occurs, and its underlying mechanism are not fully understood. Application of several existing cloud organization indices showed inconsistent evolutions in the measured degree of organization with the MJO. The inconsistency arises from the varying definitions and assumptions of cloud organization behaviors that are applied to each index. While these indices often combine different properties of clouds, such as their number density, size, and distance between them, the analysis of these properties separately provided further understanding of how clouds organize with the MJO. Using the rainfall clusters identified from the S-Polka radar, we find that deep convective rainfall clusters begin to increase their number density before the arrival of MJO enhanced convective center, which is accompanied by increased proximity (shorter distance to each other) and followed by growth in their size. However, the nonrandomness in the spatial distribution of rainfall clusters maximizes as MJO convection decays. Deep convective clusters become the least randomly distributed as the clusters decay because of the suppression and decay of isolated deep convective cells, while clustered deep convective cells exist longer. This evolution of cloud organization is analogous to mesoscale convective systems, indicating that the duration and frequency of their organization stages are altered by the large-scale environmental perturbations associated with the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Large-Scale Urbanization and Irrigation on Summer Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

This study investigates how urbanization and irrigation in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains affect summer precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region (MAR) using convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with/without urbanization or irrigation. In this work, a feature tracking algorithm is used to identify precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and non-convective systems (NC). Overall, urbanization suppresses all three types of precipitation in the MAR by reducing water vapor content and convective available potential energy, while irrigation enhances IDC and NC precipitation but suppresses MCS precipitation. Examination of the MCS and IDC initiation locations indicates that irrigation suppresses MAR precipitation that is produced by MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest (GP) but enhances MAR precipitation from MCSs initiated locally within the region. Irrigation induces a mid-level cyclonic circulation anomaly centering in the Southeast, hindering the eastward propagation and development of MCSs from the GP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed and Projected Changes of Large‐Scale Environments Conducive to Spring MCS Initiation Over the US Great Plains

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are frequent over the US Great Plains during spring. The link between large‐scale environments and spring MCS initiation were well established. Here, historical and future changes of spring large‐scale environments favorable for MCS initiation are investigated using an MCS tracking data set, ERA5 reanalysis, and 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The frequency of Great Plains low‐level jet (GPLLJ)‐related MCS environments is found to have increased by ∼41% from 1979 to 2019, consistent with the enhanced GPLLJ and more frequent MCSs. Comparing CMIP6 AMIP and historical experiments, we find that the observed GPLLJ strengthening and more frequent MCS environments are mainly due to the decadal sea‐surface temperature variations rather than external forcings. Under a high emission scenario, the frequency of GPLLJ‐related environments favorable for MCS initiation will increase by ∼65% during 2015–2100, along with a stronger GPLLJ, suggesting more frequent MCSs over the US Great Plains in a warming world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Record-Breaking Precipitation in Indonesia's Capital of Jakarta in Early January 2020 Linked to the Northerly Surge, Equatorial Waves, and MJO

A rare record-breaking extreme rainfall event, the highest amount recorded since 1866, hit Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in early January 2020. The torrential rainfall was mainly caused by an active cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) that occurred concurrently with equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). A strong and persistent low-level northerly wind and moisture transport induced by CENS created favorable atmospheric conditions for the formation of deep convection and heavy rainfall over Jakarta. The concurrent occurrences of convectively active phases of equatorial waves (mainly Kelvin, TD-type, and eastward propagating inertia-gravity waves) and MJO during the event further supported the development of heavy rainfall by increasing low-level moisture flux convergence, whereas equatorial Rossby waves contributed indirectly to the increased moisture transport by amplifying cross-equatorial meridional flows toward Jakarta. Together, these large-scale dynamical forcing factors provided a conducive convective environment for the development of mesoscale convective systems and, hence, extreme rainfall over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Diurnal Cycle of East Pacific Convection, Moisture, and CYGNSS Wind Speed and Fluxes

The far eastern tropical Pacific is one of the rainiest locations on Earth. This region is characterized by a robust diurnal cycle with precipitation initiating over the Andes mountains in Colombia in the late afternoon and moving offshore overnight while organizing into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). As the MCSs move westward, they can seed tropical easterly waves that develop into tropical cyclones. Novel measurements of near-surface wind speeds and latent heat flux (LHFLX) from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission and ERA5 reanalysis are used to evaluate changes to regional flow patterns, moisture, and LHFLX that favor a strong westward propagating diurnal cycle of precipitation in this region. Days with strongly versus weakly westward propagating diurnal precipitation are compared during the extended boreal summer of the CYGNSS era (May–October 2018–2021). Strongly propagating days have a more moist lower troposphere with stronger vertically integrated moisture flux convergence than days with weakly propagating precipitation. The enhanced low-level moisture is supported by increased wind-driven LHFLX from stronger regional flows including the Choco and Caribbean Low-Level Jets and Panama and Papagayo gap winds. Increased offshore convergence and vorticity also help sustain convection during the days with strongly propagating precipitation. Background variations in the physical environment, as opposed to diurnal variations, seem more important for supporting a robust diurnal cycle of precipitation in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Thunderstorms With the Greatest Lightning Densities on Earth

The most intense thunderstorms on Earth were surveyed using the comprehensive meteorological instrumentation on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Expansive land-based Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) were consistently identified among the Earth's most intense thunderstorms, with their organization into many convective cells spanning a large areal extent permitting exceptional overall flash rates for these storms. In this study, we identify a new class of extreme thunderstorm. Lightning-dense thunderstorms are relatively compact convective storms whose concentrated lightning activity hinders our ability to accurately measure their flash rates. The top storms have a flash rate of one flash spanning many seconds, as there is insufficient separation to distinguish one flash from another. While any particularly active convective cell could be capable of producing high lightning densities, we find that thunderstorms with the greatest lightning densities on Earth are found in maritime thunderstorms that have not been appreciated in prior work due to the inaccurate flash rate measurements. These storms that are mostly found throughout the Gulf of Mexico and east of South Africa (among other coastal and oceanic regions) have measured TRMM proxies for convective intensity that rival the top MCS thunderstorms, but their horizontal and vertical dimensions are small by comparison. Thus, the necessary microphysical elements for electrification processes are more highly concentrated, enabling the observed extreme lightning densities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lightning Characteristics Associated With Storm Modes Observed During RELAMPAGO

Global satellite studies show a maximum in deep convection and lightning downstream of the Andes in subtropical South America. The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign was designed to investigate the physical processes that contribute to the rapid development of deep convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in Argentina. A lightning mapping array (LMA) was deployed to Argentina as part of RELAMPAGO to collect lightning observations from extreme storms in the region. This study combines lightning data from the LMA and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper onboard GOES-16 with 1-km gridded radar data to examine the electrical characteristics of a variety of convective storms throughout their life cycle observed during RELAMPAGO. Results from the full campaign show 48% of flashes are associated with deep convection that occurs along the eastern edge of the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) overnight. These flashes are 65 km 2 smaller on average compared to stratiform flashes, which occur most frequently 50–100 km east of the SDC in the early morning hours, consistent with the upscale growth of MCSs off the terrain. Analysis of the 13–14 December MCS shows that sharp increases in flash rates correspond to deep and wide convective cores that have high graupel and hail mass, 35-dBZ volume, and ice water path. This work validates previous satellite studies of lightning in the region, but also provides higher spatial and temporal resolution information across the convective life cycle that has not been available in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

Abstract The historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts

Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Meteorological Drivers of North American Monsoon Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract In this paper the meteorological drivers of North American Monsoon (NAM) extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are identified and analyzed. First, the NAM area and its subregions are distinguished using self‐organizing maps applied to the Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data set. This reveals distinct subregions, shaped by the inhomogeneous geographic features of the NAM area, with distinct extreme precipitation character and drivers. Next, defining EPEs as days when subregion‐mean precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of rainy days, five synoptic features and one mesoscale feature are investigated as potential drivers of EPEs. Essentially all EPEs can be associated with at least one selected driver, with only one event remaining unclassified. This analysis shows the dominant role of Gulf of California moisture surges, mesoscale convective systems and frontal systems in generating NAM extreme precipitation. Finally, a frequency and probability analysis is conducted to contrast precipitation distributions conditioned on the associated meteorological drivers. The findings demonstrate that the co‐occurrence of multiple features does not necessarily enhance the EPE probability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario

To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes

Object-based identification algorithms for atmospheric features are commonly utilized to attribute global precipitation. This study employs a systematic approach to examine feature co-occurrences and their relationships to mean and extreme precipitation. Four features are identified using existing data sets for atmospheric rivers (ARs), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), low-pressure systems (LPSs), and fronts (FTs). Often, a single atmospheric phenomenon satisfies the criteria set by multiple feature identification algorithms, yielding an association between precipitation and multiple features. Over the extra-tropics, the number of features attributed to a single event typically increases with precipitation intensity. Over two-thirds of the precipitation is from co-occurring features, with a considerable fraction related to AR-FT co-occurrences. Over the tropics, about one-quarter of precipitation is associated with co-occurring features, with LPS-MCS co-occurrences contributing substantially in monsoon regions. MCSs are the leading single-feature contributors over tropical land and oceans. In the extra-tropics, FTs, ARs, and their co-occurrences account for over half of the total precipitation over oceans. AR-FT-MCS and FT-MCS co-occurrences contribute to extremes (precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile) over both oceans (over 30%) and land (over 20%). Any combination of features involving MCSs shows a larger contribution to high percentiles of precipitation intensity. A case analysis indicates that AR-FT-MCS co-occurrences exhibit convective instability and deep vertical motion, suggesting that the feature trackers and reanalysis are capturing physics relevant to both convective and frontal systems. The results here emphasize the need for simultaneous identifications of multiple features when attributing precipitation to atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe↗