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At least 289 records · Page 16

Deep learning for computational chemistry

The rise and fall of artificial neural networks is well documented in the scientific literature of both the fields of computer science and computational chemistry. Yet almost two decades later, we are now seeing a resurgence of interest in deep learning, a machine learning algorithm based on “deep” neural networks. Within the last few years, we have seen the transformative impact of deep learning the computer science domain, notably in speech recognition and computer vision, to the extent that the majority of practitioners in those field are now regularly eschewing prior established models in favor of deep learning models. In this review, we provide an introductory overview into the theory of deep neural networks and their unique properties as compared to traditional machine learning algorithms used in cheminformatics. By providing an overview of the variety of emerging applications of deep neural networks, we highlight its ubiquity and broad applicability to a wide range of challenges in the field, including QSAR, virtual screening, protein structure modeling, QM calculations, materials synthesis and property prediction. In reviewing the performance of deep neural networks, we observed a consistent outperformance against non neural networks state-of-the-art models across disparate research topics, and deep neural network based models often exceeded the “glass ceiling” expectations of their respective tasks. Coupled with the maturity of GPU-accelerated computing for training deep neural networks and the exponential growth of chemical data on which to train these networks on, we anticipate that deep learning algorithms will be a useful tool and may grow into a pivotal role for various challenges in the computational chemistry field.

Computational Chemistry↗

Impacts of Pasture Conversion to Sugarcane on Water Fluxes and Water Use Efficiency in the Southeastern US

The expansion of sugarcane (cane), a high-yielding perennial crop, will likely reshape the bioenergy landscape in the Southeastern US. However, its ecohydrological implications, particularly following conversion from grazed pastures, a dominant land use in the region, remain highly uncertain. We investigated the impact of cane expansion on evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning, and the mechanisms influencing both ET components and water use efficiency (WUE) across multiple scales and growth cycles in subtropical Florida. We combined eddy covariance, biometric measurements, and process-based stomatal conductance (g s ) models. ET was 1.7% lower in cane than in improved pasture (IMP) but exceeded that in semi-native pasture (SN) by 21%. Transpiration (T) followed a similar pattern, consistent with lower g s in cane relative to IMP. Cane had more conservative water use and greater sensitivity of g s to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) compared to IMP pasture, suggesting cane may be more tolerant of increasing atmospheric water demand. In contrast, SN showed lower g s and weaker stomatal sensitivity to VPD compared to cane, resulting in lower T. In cane, stomatal regulation and T varied across growth cycles, with stomata becoming less water conservative as stands matured, highlighting the importance of incorporating stand age-dependent stomatal regulation into hydrological models. Evaporation (E) was higher in cane than pastures (19%–26%), partially offsetting WUE gains. Cane exhibited higher intrinsic WUE (GPP/g s ; Gross Primary Productivity), ecosystem WUE (GPP/ET), and harvest WUE (harvest/ET) than both pasture types. Large-scale pasture-to-cane conversion could produce widely contrasting hydrological outcomes. The net regional impact will depend on the proportion of each pasture type converted and on cane's high g s sensitivity to VPD, which triggers tight stomatal regulation and conservative water use, both of which will become increasingly consequential under intensifying atmospheric water demand.

bioenergy↗

Development of a Multi-physics Model to Optimize Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) for Additive Manufacturing (Carbon3D HPC4Mfg Final Report)

Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) is poised to bring additive manufacturing to multiple American manufacturing sectors owing to its unique combination of rapid print speeds and material options that resemble injection molding thermoplastics. In spite of these benefits, CLIP is still a maturing process. To improve our understanding and control of the process, this project developed a multi-physics computational model that encompasses the coupled chemical-physical processes of photopolymerization and fluid flow to predict part outcomes. A physically predictive model can enable rapid optimization of CLIP and reduce the current cycle time and waste associated with optimization by four-fold. Ultimately, this effort will help open the U.S. $400B plastic manufacturing industry to the key benefits of additive manufacturing, namely mass customization, unlimited design space, and a cost- and energy-effective path to mainstream manufacturing. In the course of the project we produced a model which coupled fluid-flow, species transport, and photochemistry to model the Carbon CLIP process. As the development proceeded, we validated the code against theory and experiments. The resulting code was transferred to Carbon, and we expect it to be a useful part of their modeling capability. Future work includes improvements to the fluid solver’s robustness and performance, along with the addition of additional physics models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Maturation of biomass‐to‐biofuels conversion technology pathways for rapid expansion of biofuels production: a system dynamics perspective

Abstract The Biomass Scenario Model ( BSM ) is a system‐dynamics simulation model intended to explore the potential for rapid expansion of the biofuels industry. The model is not predictive — it uses scenario assumptions based on various types of data to simulate industry development, emphasizing how incentives and technological learning‐by‐doing might accelerate industry growth. The BSM simulates major sectors of the biofuels industry, including feedstock production and logistics, conversion, distribution, and end uses, as well as interactions among sectors. The model represents conversion of biomass to biofuels as a set of technology pathways, each of which has allowable feedstocks, capital and operating costs, allowable products, and other defined characteristics. This study and the BSM address bioenergy modeling analytic needs that were identified in recent literature reviews. Simulations indicate that investments are most effective at expanding biofuels production through learning‐by‐doing when they are coordinated with respect to timing, pathway, and target sector within the biofuels industry. Effectiveness metrics include timing and magnitude of increased production, incentive cost and cost effectiveness, and avoidance of windfall profits. Investment costs and optimal investment targets have inherent risks and uncertainties, such as the relative value of investment in more‐mature versus less mature pathways. These can be explored through scenarios, but cannot be precisely predicted. Dynamic competition, including competition for cellulosic feedstocks and ethanol market shares, intensifies during times of rapid growth. Ethanol production increases rapidly, even up to Renewable Fuel Standards‐targeted volumes of biofuel, in simulations that allow higher blending proportions of ethanol in gasoline‐fueled vehicles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Biofuels, Bioproducts, Biorefining published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced redox conductivity and enriched Geobacteraceae of exoelectrogenic biofilms in response to static magnetic field

A possible approach to enhance the performance of microbial electrochemical system such as microbial fuel cells is to increase the conductivity of catalytic biofilms and thereby the direct extracellular electron transfer within the biofilms and from the electrode. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of static low-intensity magnetic field on the anodic biofilms in microbial fuel cells (MFCs). Here, results demonstrated that the application of a low-intensity magnetic field (105 and 150 mT) can significantly shorten the startup time and enhance the overall performance of single-chamber MFCs in terms of current density (300%) and power density (150%). In situ conductance evaluation indicated that short-term application of magnetic field can increase biofilm conductivity, although the long-term enhancements were likely results of increased conductivity of the anodic biofilms associated with enriched population of Geobacteraceae. The peak-manner response of conductivity over gate potentials and the positive response of mature biofilm conductance to low intensity of magnetic field support the redox conduction model of the conductive exoelectrogenic biofilms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Timing and extent of crop damage by wild pigs (Sus scrofa Linnaeus) to corn and peanut fields

The global expansion of wild pigs over the last few decades has resulted in an increase in extent and distribution of damages to crops, placing a growing strain on agricultural producers and land managers. Despite the extent of wild pig damage to agriculture, there is little data regarding timing and spatial variability of damage to corn (Zea mays Linnaeus) and we found no data regarding the effect of these factors on peanuts (Arachis hypogaea Linnaeus). Our objective was to determine the timing and extent of wild pig damage to corn and peanut fields, as well as the extent to which local habitat attributes are useful predictors of damage to these crops. During 2017–2018 we performed ground-based surveys throughout the growing season for 29 corn and 41 peanut fields in South Carolina, USA to determine the most important growth stages for wild pig depredation in both crops. Damage to corn peaked shortly after planting during the seedling stage, fell to nearly zero during V4–V6 stages, and resumed during the silk and mature stages. Peanut damage was almost exclusively limited to the seedling stage. Landscape models for both crops identified the extent of forested and wetland areas surrounding crop fields as the most important attributes positively associated with wild pig damage, while the amount of adjacent agricultural area and paved roads were associated negatively. The number of wild pigs identified by remote cameras also was an important indicator of the extent of damage to peanut fields. Results suggest management efforts to limit crop depredation by wild pigs should be targeted shortly prior to planting. Further, because damage was positively associated with the availability of wetland and forest habitats, our results suggest agricultural damage by wild pigs may be most severe near areas of preferred native habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Portal protein functions akin to a DNA-sensor that couples genome-packaging to icosahedral capsid maturation

Tailed bacteriophages and herpesviruses assemble infectious particles via an empty precursor capsid (or ‘procapsid’) built by multiple copies of coat and scaffolding protein and by one dodecameric portal protein. Genome packaging triggers rearrangement of the coat protein and release of scaffolding protein, resulting in dramatic procapsid lattice expansion. Here, we provide structural evidence that the portal protein of the bacteriophage P22 exists in two distinct dodecameric conformations: an asymmetric assembly in the procapsid (PC-portal) that is competent for high affinity binding to the large terminase packaging protein, and a symmetric ring in the mature virion (MV-portal) that has negligible affinity for the packaging motor. Modelling studies indicate the structure of PC-portal is incompatible with DNA coaxially spooled around the portal vertex, suggesting that newly packaged DNA triggers the switch from PC- to MV-conformation. Thus, we propose the signal for termination of ‘Headful Packaging’ is a DNA-dependent symmetrization of portal protein.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Materials and Fuels Complex FY-24 -- FY-28 Five-Year Investment Strategy

MFC supports current RD&D missions while enabling new projects and missions working with DOE-NE sponsors, other federal agencies, private industry, and academia. The investment strategy described in this document guides the efforts to build, expand, and sustain DOE-NE research capabilities at MFC, increase access to MFC capabilities by industry and the nuclear RD&D community, and revitalize existing MFC nuclear infrastructure. The strategy also anticipates and guides the preparations necessary for demonstration of advanced nuclear energy technologies in support of NRIC, the DOE Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) initiative, and nuclear energy and other related critical outcomes identified in the INL Laboratory Plan. The investment strategy for MFC addresses building and improving on these core competencies, introducing new and revitalized RD&D capabilities, and maturing the NRIC test bed. MFC is also implementing new business and operations models to help transform MFC into a complex that supports an advanced nuclear technology development test bed. The strategy for MFC is presented in several parts, each focusing on an element needed for success.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Recent heavy flavor results from the Tevatron

The CDF and D0 experiments at the Tevatron p{bar p} collider have pioneered and established the role of flavor physics in hadron collisions. A broad program is now at its full maturity. We report on three new results sensitive to physics beyond the standard model, obtained using the whole CDF dataset: a measurement of the difference of CP asymmetries in K{sup +}K{sup -} and {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -} decays of D{sup 0} mesons, new bounds on the B{sub s}{sup 0} mixing phase and on the decay width difference of B{sub s}{sup 0} mass-eigenstates, and an update of the summer 2011 search for B{sub (s)}{sup 0} mesons decaying into pairs of muons. Finally, the D0 confirmation of the observation of a new hadron, the {chi}{sub b}(3P) state, is briefly mentioned.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Application of mixed kernels function (MKF) based support vector regression model (SVR) for CO 2 – Reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure prediction

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection into oil reservoirs is considered a mature enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique for conventional reservoirs. The local displacement efficiency of the CO 2 -EOR process is highly dependent on the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), estimating this parameter is critical to design of the CO 2 injection process. Traditional empirical methods to test the CO 2 -oil MMP are time consuming and expensive; derived correlations are fast but not accurate. Therefore, an efficient and reliable method to determine MMP is beneficial. Here in this study, a mixed kernels function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model was developed and used to predict the MMP for both pure and impure CO 2 injection cases. Four parameters were chosen as input parameters: (1) reservoir temperature; (2) average critical temperature; (3) molecular weight of pentane plus (C 5+ ) fraction of crude oil, and; (4) the ratio of volatile components to intermediate components in crude oil. MMP was selected as the desired output parameter to train and test this newly developed model. The performance of basic kernels function based SVR model is compared with that of this newly developed MKF-SVR model. The well-trained MFK-SVR was compared with three well-established published correlations, demonstrated the highest correlation coefficient (R of 0.9381), lowest root mean square error (RMSE of 1.9151), smallest average absolute error (AAE of 1.1406) and maximum absolute error (MAE of 4.6291). We believe that the proposed MFK-SVM model is a more reliable and stable regression model to predict MMP. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the physical correctness. It indicates that the predicted results from the newly developed model are in excellent agreement with previous empirical work.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Inhibition of Notch signaling by Dll4-Fc promotes reperfusion of acutely ischemic tissues

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Low dose Dll4-Fc increases vascular proliferation and overall perfusion. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Low dose Dll4-Fc helps vascular injury recovery in hindlimb ischemia model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Low dose Dll4-Fc helps vascular injury recovery in skin flap model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Dll4 heterozygous deletion promotes vascular injury recovery. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Dll4 overexpression delays vascular injury recovery. -- Abstract: Notch pathway regulates vessel development and maturation. Dll4, a high-affinity ligand for Notch, is expressed predominantly in the arterial endothelium and is induced by hypoxia among other factors. Inhibition of Dll4 has paradoxical effects of reducing the maturation and perfusion in newly forming vessels while increasing the density of vessels. We hypothesized that partial and/or intermittent inhibition of Dll4 may lead to increased vascular response and still allow vascular maturation to occur. Thus tissue perfusion can be restored rapidly, allowing quicker recovery from ischemia or tissue injury. Our studies in two different models (hindlimb ischemia and skin flap) show that inhibition of Dll4 at low dose allows faster recovery from vascular and tissue injury. This opens a new possibility for Dll4 blockade's therapeutic application in promoting recovery from vascular injury and restoring blood supply to ischemic tissues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reactive Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Kerogen Thermal Maturation and Cross-Linking Pathways

For this study, molecular dynamics simulations were performed with a ReaxFF reactive force field to investigate bond breaking and bond formation mechanisms during the early thermal maturation of kerogen and potential crosslinking pathways towards a three-dimensional (3D) quasi-infinite molecular network (crosslinked kerogen). Starting with small ensembles of high molecular mass models for immature type I Green River Shale kerogen (Kerogen 1-I), top of the oil window type II kerogen (Kerogen 2-L), and low maturity type III kerogen (Kerogen 3-L), low molecular mass species including H 2 O, H 2 S, C 2 H 4 , C 3 H 6 were produced as the maturities of the remaining kerogens increased. Highly reactive fragments, which are not detected in pyrolysis experiments, were also produced. Further, the crosslinking mechanism in the newly develop polymeric kerogen networks appears to be highly complex and it is influenced by the nature of the kerogen. Covalent —C—S—, —C—O— and —C—C— bonds are the primary crosslinks that structurally binds kerogen monomers together. The trends observed in the thermochemical transformation of kerogen and the kerogen crosslinking pathways are consistent with the theoretical and experimental studies reported in the scientific literature. The reactive force field molecular dynamics simulation provides a potentially valuable alternative approach to the development of a realistic 3D molecular network of kerogen. However, the conversion of kerogen molecules into a 3D molecular network was low.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Differential early–life survival underlies the adaptive significance of temperature–dependent sex determination in a long–lived reptile

1. Many ectotherms rely on temperature cues experienced during development to determine offspring sex. The first descriptions of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) were made over 50 years ago, yet an understanding of its adaptive significance remains elusive, especially in long-lived taxa. 2. One novel hypothesis predicts that TSD should be evolutionarily favoured when two criteria are met—(a) incubation temperature influences annual juvenile survival and (b) sexes mature at different ages. Under these conditions, a sex-dependent effect of incubation temperature on offspring fitness arises through differences in age at sexual maturity, with the sex that matures later benefiting disproportionately from temperatures that promote juvenile survival. 3. The American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) serves as an insightful model in which to test this hypothesis, as males begin reproducing nearly a decade after females. Here, through a combination of artificial incubation experiments and mark-recapture approaches, we test the specific predictions of the survival-to-maturity hypothesis for the adaptive value of TSD by disentangling the effects of incubation temperature and sex on annual survival of alligator hatchlings across two geographically distinct sites. 4. Hatchlings incubated at male-promoting temperatures (MPTs) consistently exhibited higher survival compared to those incubated at female-promoting temperatures. This pattern appears independent of hatchling sex, as females produced from hormone manipulation at MPT exhibit similar survival to their male counterparts. 5. Additional experiments show that incubation temperature may affect early-life survival primarily by affecting the efficiency with which maternally transferred energy resources are used during development. 6. Results from this study provide the first explicit empirical support for the adaptive value of TSD in a crocodilian and point to developmental energetics as a potential unifying mechanism underlying persistent survival consequences of incubation temperature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Chapter 6: Modeling and Simulation of Wind-Farm Flows

The subject of this chapter is the modeling and simulation of the flow through full wind farms, also known as wind plants, which are collections of many wind turbines within a region working together to supply power to the grid like any other type of power plant. This topic is interesting and exciting because of the increasing variety of and uses for wind plant flow modeling and simulation. For example, Figure 6.1 shows the computed flow field from a high-fidelity simulation of the Lillgrund offshore wind farm using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with large-eddy simulation (LES) turbulence modeling and actuator line rotor aerodynamics models. There are many ways to model this type of flow, ranging from very simple models of wind turbine wakes and their interactions that can run in a matter of seconds on a laptop to high-fidelity, turbulence -resolving LES of the atmospheric flow and wakes that require days of use of thousands of cores on a high-performance computing cluster. The uses of wind plant flow simulations are equally varied. Wind plant layout designers run hundreds or thousands of simulations over all possible wind directions and speeds using simple models to predict a future wind plant's annual energy production. Researchers use LESs of the wind plant to study phenomena such as wind turbine wake interactions with each other and with the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). As computational resources become more readily available, it is even becoming common for turbine manufacturers to use CFD of some form to model wind plants in complex terrain to help in the wind turbine siting and selection process. We are beginning to see the expensive, high-fidelity tools being used to create data and knowledge that improves or enables the creation of new cheaper, lower fidelity tools. We are also beginning to see the low- and high-fidelity tools used together to perform uncertainty quantification of energy estimates and optimization of wind plant layouts. As new computing technologies mature, such as graphics processing unit (GPU)-based computing, the future of full wind plant flow modeling is exciting.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Constrained partitioning of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration reduces model uncertainties of forest ecosystem carbon fluxes but not stocks

Abstract We partitioned the soil carbon dioxide flux ( R s ) into its respective autotrophic and heterotrophic components in a mature temperate‐boreal forest (Howland Forest in Maine, USA). We combined automated chamber measurements of R s with two different partitioning methods: (1) a classic root trenching experiment and (2) a radiocarbon ( 14 C) mass balance approach. With a model‐data fusion approach, we used these data to constrain a parsimonious ecosystem model (FöBAAR), and we investigated differences in modeled C fluxes and pools under both current and future climate scenarios. The trenching experiment indicated that heterotrophic respiration accounted for 53 ± 11% of total R s . In comparison, using the 14 C method, the heterotrophic contribution was 42 ± 9%. For both current and future model runs, incorporating the partitioning data as constraints substantially reduced the uncertainties of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration fluxes. Moreover, with best fit model parameters, the two partitioning methods yielded fundamentally different estimates of the relative contributions of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration to total R s , especially at the annual time scale. Surprisingly, however, modeled soil C and biomass C pool size trajectories did not differ significantly between model runs based on the different methods. Instead, model differences in partitioning were compensated for by changes in C allocation, resulting in similar, but still highly uncertain, soil C pool trajectories. Our findings show that incorporating constraints on the partitioning of R s can reduce model uncertainties of fluxes but not pools, and the results are sensitive to the partitioning method used.

Carbone, Mariah S.↗

Improving the performance of medical imaging applications using SYCL

As opposed to the Open Computing Language (OpenCL) programming model, in which host and device codes are generally written in different programming languages, SYCL can combine host and device codes for an application in a type-safe way to improve development productivity and performance portability. Hence, this report shows the experimental results of applying the SYCL programming model to medical imaging applications for a study on performance portability and programming productivity between OpenCL and SYCL. Rodinia is a widely used open-source benchmark suite for heterogeneous computing. We choose two medical imaging applications (Heart Wall and Particle Filter) in the benchmark suite, migrate the OpenCL implementations of the applications to the SYCL implementations, and evaluate their performance and productivity on Intel® microprocessors that contain a central processing unit (CPU) and an integrated graphics processing unit (GPU). The maturing SYCL compilers, which are based on a conformant implementation of the SYCL 1.2.1 Khronos specification, have been actively optimized for Intel® computing platforms. The experimental results are promising in terms of the raw performance and productivity. Although the SYCL implementation of the Heart Wall application does not execute successfully on a CPU, the SYCL implementations of the application can achieve comparable or better performance than the OpenCL implementation on Intel® integrated GPUs. For the Particle Filter application, the performance difference between the SYCL and OpenCL implementations is comparable on the GPUs for most cases, but the SYCL implementations are on average 4X faster than the OpenCL implementations on Intel® Xeon® CPUs. For programming productivity, we arguably use lines of code as a way to measure programming productivity in software. The SYCL programs reduce the lines of code of the OpenCL programs by 52% and 38% for the Heart Wall and Particle Filter, respectively. The results indicate that SYCL is a promising programming model for heterogeneous computing with the maturing compilers. We organize the remainder of the report as follows. Section II introduces the SYCL programming model, compares the major differences between an OpenCL program and a SYCL program, and describes the characteristics of the two applications. Section III describes the SYCL programming model in more details, and shows the SYCL implementation of a kernel function in the Particle Filter application as an example. In Section IV, we evaluate the performance of the applications on the CPUs and GPUs. Section V concludes the report.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adding Alaska Petroleum Infrastructure to the National Transportation Fuel Model

Alaska oil fields provide an important, but diminishing, portion of the crude oil processed by Alaska and U.S. West Coast refineries. Production of crude oil in Alaska is being stressed by declining production in mature fields, high costs for developing and producing new fields, increasing competition from tight oil production in the Lower 48 states, and low global oil prices. The National Transportation Fuel Model is a network model of petroleum infrastructure in the Lower 48 states and portions of Canada developed at Sandia National Laboratories. It provides a simulation capability for analysis of system-wide responses to stressing events. Until now, however, this model did not explicitly include the petroleum infrastructure of Alaska and the transport of crude oil by marine shipments from Alaska to West Coast refineries. This paper describes the methods and information requirements for adding Alaska infrastructure to the National Transportation Fuel Model, provides an overview of the new Alaska portion of the model, and presents an example simulation of a closure of a large San Francisco refinery.

02 PETROLEUM↗