DIP Predictive Engine for NY Airspace
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
DIP↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Machine learning prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
DIP Predictive Engine for NY Airspace
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
DIP↗
Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis
Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.
uncertainty quantification↗
Exploration Clinical Decision Support System: Medical Data Architecture
The Exploration Clinical Decision Support (ECDS) System project is intended to enhance the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element for extended duration, deep-space mission planning in HRP. A major development guideline is the Risk of "Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Limitations of In-flight Medical Conditions". ECDS attempts to mitigate that Risk by providing crew-specific health information, actionable insight, crew guidance and advice based on computational algorithmic analysis. The availability of inflight health diagnostic computational methods has been identified as an essential capability for human exploration missions. Inflight electronic health data sources are often heterogeneous, and thus may be isolated or not examined as an aggregate whole. The ECDS System objective provides both a data architecture that collects and manages disparate health data, and an active knowledge system that analyzes health evidence to deliver case-specific advice. A single, cohesive space-ready decision support capability that considers all exploration clinical measurements is not commercially available at present. Hence, this Task is a newly coordinated development effort by which ECDS and its supporting data infrastructure will demonstrate the feasibility of intelligent data mining and predictive modeling as a biomedical diagnostic support mechanism on manned exploration missions. The initial step towards ground and flight demonstrations has been the research and development of both image and clinical text-based computer-aided patient diagnosis. Human anatomical images displaying abnormal/pathological features have been annotated using controlled terminology templates, marked-up, and then stored in compliance with the AIM standard. These images have been filtered and disease characterized based on machine learning of semantic and quantitative feature vectors. The next phase will evaluate disease treatment response via quantitative linear dimension biomarkers that enable image content-based retrieval and criteria assessment. In addition, a data mining engine (DME) is applied to cross-sectional adult surveys for predicting occurrence of renal calculi, ranked by statistical significance of demographics and specific food ingestion. In addition to this precursor space flight algorithm training, the DME will utilize a feature-engineering capability for unstructured clinical text classification health discovery. The ECDS backbone is a proposed multi-tier modular architecture providing data messaging protocols, storage, management and real-time patient data access. Technology demonstrations and success metrics will be finalized in FY16.
Biomedical support↗
Cognitive Anti-Jamming Satellite-To-Ground Communications on NASA's SCaN Testbed
Machine learning aided cognitive anti-jamming communications is designed, developed and demonstrated on a live satellite-to-ground link. A wideband autonomous cognitive radio (WACR) is designed and implemented as a hardware-in-the- loop (HITL) prototype. The cognitive engine (CE) of the WACR is implemented on a PC while the software-defined radio (SDR) platform utilized two different radios for spectrum sensing and actual communications. The cognitive engine performs spectrum knowledge acquisition over the complete spectrum range available for the SATCOM system operation and learns an anti-jamming communications protocol to avoid both intentional jammers and inadvertent interferers using reinforcement learning. When the current satellite-to-ground link is jammed, the cognitive engine of the ground receiver directs the satellite transmitter to switch to a new channel that is predicted to be jammer-free for the longest possible duration. The end-to-end, closed-loop system was tested on the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed on the International Space Station (ISS). The experimental results demonstrated the feasibility of satellite-to-ground cognitive anti-jamming communications along with excellent anti-jamming capability of machine learning aided cognitive protocols against several different types of jammers.
Jayaweera, Sudharman K.↗
Cognitive Anti-jamming Satellite-to-Ground Communications on NASA's SCaN Testbed
Machine learning aided cognitive anti-jamming communications is designed, developed and demonstrated on an experimental satellite-to-ground link. A wideband autonomous cognitive radio (WACR) is designed and implemented as a hardware-in the-loop (HITL) prototype. The cognitive engine (CE) of the WACR is implemented on a PC while the software-defined radio (SDR) platform utilized two different radios for spectrum sensing and actual communications. The cognitive engine performs spectrum knowledge acquisition over the complete spectrum range available for the SATCOM system operation and learns an anti-jamming communications protocol to avoid both intentional jammers and inadvertent interferers using reinforcement learning. When the current satellite-to-ground link is jammed, the cognitive engine of the ground receiver directs the satellite transmitter to switch to a new channel that is predicted to be jammer-free for the longest possible duration. The end-to-end, closed-loop system was tested with the NASA's Space Communications and Networking (SCaN) testbed on the International Space Station (ISS). The experimental results demonstrated the feasibility of satellite-to-ground cognitive anti-jamming communications along with excellent anti-jamming capability of machine-learning aided cognitive protocols against several different types of jammers.
Jayaweera, Sudharman K.↗
A Convolutional Neural Network for Multiscale Modeling of Composite Materials
An artificial convolutional neural network was created to efficiently mimic a micromechanics model, the High Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells, for use in multi-scale structural finite element analysis. The network was found to quickly and accurately replicate the stiffness predicted by the micromechanics model using a 2D image of an idealized representative volume element of a fiber/matrix microstructure. The long-term goal of this work is to efficiently apply multi-scale methods for predicting the damage progression of a composite structure.
Composites↗
Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence
A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.
autonomy↗
Off-Nominal Event Analysis in Autonomous Flights Based on Explainable Artificial Intelligence
A key objective in the Urban Air Mobility program at NASA is to intelligently perform an autonomous flight in a complex urban environment under all weather conditions with guaranteed levels of safety. To accomplish this, the mission manager (central decision-making module) of the vehicle needs to make informed decisions between various Courses of Action (CoA) based on its' interpretation of the inputs it receives. If an off-nominal event is detected either based on the amalgamation of sensor data or the use of machine learning models, the mission manager may greatly benefit from identification of the input features that most likely contributed to that specific event. Such an understanding is usually not possible to obtain from the classical machine learning models (deep learning) due to the inherent black box like structure. However, this understanding is achieved using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models that provide a human interpretable rationale for the predictions made. This work presents a game theory inspired XAI model for the off-nominal assessment of autonomous flights. The proposed approach based on Shapley values is model agnostic, provides local as well as global explanation and satisfies the four axioms (efficiency, symmetry, dummy, additivity) to achieve fair contribution. The versatility of the approach is first demonstrated on a simulated dataset in which the significance of each input to flight phase prediction is clearly identified. Subsequently, data from simulated flight trajectories are fed into the model which reveal the input features that most likely contributed to a rotor failure event thereby empowering the mission manager to take the appropriate CoA.
autonomy↗
Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks
The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.
Hannah Alpert↗
Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling
Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm/yr (6.56×10^4 cu.km/yr) to 617.1 mm/yr (6.87×10^4 cu.km/yr). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm/sq.yr with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr−2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm/sq.yr, p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm/yr. Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.
surface modeling↗
Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather
Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes
Pfeil, Diana Michalek↗
Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) for Disaster Resilience
"Earth systems have now been observed continuously for more than 50 years, not only from space but also from airplanes, balloons and in-situ sensors. With the addition of commercial remote sensing providers, many more Internet-of-Things sensors and new NASA and international observatories being planned, these incredible amounts of data will soon be augmented by even larger amounts of diverse data and therefore will become more and more difficult to access, integrate, understand and utilize. At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts, in order to predict, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme science events and disasters, the information produced by all of this data needs to be optimized, organized and analyzed in such a way that it can be utilized by traditional as well as many new non-traditional users. This calls for the development of observing systems that are agile, coordinated and responsive to events of interest, and for information systems to be dynamic, interactive and fast. With these objectives in mind, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has been developing technologies that will allow for the development of Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) in a distributed, coordinated fashion (i.e., similar to an “Internet-of-Earth-Things”), as well as for the development of novel information systems or Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) that will build a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth systems, will derive forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and will also offer the capability to investigate many hypothetical evolution scenarios under varying impact assumptions. Both NOS and ESDT will be facilitated by the unprecedented advances of Artificial Intelligence technologies, especially Machine Learning (ML), for extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data, for fusing and assimilating diverse data together and for running complex models faster. Together NOS and ESDT will help build the capabilities needed to anticipate, predict and mitigate the effects of future disasters."
Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗
NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model
The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K- nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.
Hihn, Jairus↗
Local Scale (3-M) Soil Moisture Mapping Using SMAP and Planet Superdove
A capability for mapping meter-level resolution soil moisture with frequent temporal sampling over large regions is essential for quantifying local-scale environmental heterogeneity and eco-hydrologic behavior. However, available surface soil moisture (SSM) products generally involve much coarser grain sizes ranging from 30 m to several 10s of kilometers. Hence a new method is proposed to estimate 3-m resolution SSM using a combination of multi-sensor fusion, machine- learning (ML) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching approaches. This method established favorable SSM correspondence between 3-m pixels and overlying 9-km grid cells from overlapping Planet SuperDove (PSD) observations and NASA Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission products. The resulting 3-m SSM predictions showed improved accuracy by reducing ab- solute bias and RMSE by ~0.01 cm3/cm3 over the original SMAP data in relation to in-situ soil moisture measurements for the Australian Yanco region, while preserving the high sampling frequency (1-3 day global revisit) and sensitivity to surface wetness (R 0.865) from SMAP. Heterogeneous soil moisture distributions varying with vegetation biomass gradients and irrigation regimes were generally captured within a selected study area. Further algorithm refinement and implementation for regional applications will allow for improvement in water resources management, precision agriculture, and disaster forecasts and responses.
soil moisture↗
Design Implications of Rotordynamics and Mass Balancing on a 1.4 MW Partially Superconducting Machine
To ensure that rotating machines operate without excessive bearing loads, vibration, and dynamic stresses, their design must consider rotordynamic response and provisions for mass balancing of rotors, even when their rotational speeds are modest. This paper presents a rotordynamics design study for a 1.4 MW, partially superconducting electric machine proposed for electrified aircraft propulsion – NASA’s High Efficiency Megawatt Motor (HEMM). The study includes the selection of mass balancing grade and mount and bearing stiffnesses to yield satisfactory critical speeds, deflection, and unbalance force, and predictions of the expected mass unbalance caused by the superconducting rotor coils. The impact of the machine’s number of rotor poles on expected mass unbalance is also quantified. Design decisions and lessons learned are discussed.
hybrid electric aircraft↗
Design Implications of Rotordynamics and Mass Balancing on a 1.4 MW Partially Superconducting Machine
To ensure that rotating machines operate without excessive bearing loads, vibration, and dynamic stresses, their design must consider rotordynamic response and provisions for mass balancing of rotors, even when their rotational speeds are modest. This paper presents a rotordynamics design study for a 1.4 MW, partially superconducting electric machine proposed for electrified aircraft propulsion – NASA’s High Efficiency Megawatt Motor (HEMM). The study includes the selection of mass balancing grade and mount and bearing stiffnesses to yield satisfactory critical speeds, deflection, and unbalance force, and predictions of the expected mass unbalance caused by the superconducting rotor coils. The impact of the machine’s number of rotor poles on expected mass unbalance is also quantified. Design decisions and lessons learned are discussed.
hybrid electric aircraft↗
A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing
Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.
Bayesian Deep Learning↗