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At least 289 records · Page 16

Modeling of the aircraft in-trail-following task during profile descent

The cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) system concepts enable the pilot to observe the surrounding air traffic pattern. The impact of such a system is far reaching in terms of improved safety, pilot and controller workload, and aircraft fuel efficiency. One direct payoff is the ability to distribute the ATC workload to the pilot in such tasks as merging and spacing. The CDTI application of spacing approach aircraft in the terminal area is addressed. In-trail-following/CDTI experiments were performed using realistic cockpit simulators and profile descent approach scenarios. Based on collected experimental simulator data, pilot models were developed which include state estimation, decision making and flight control aspects. These models were coupled with models of aircraft and CDTI equipment to study the dynamic phenomena and stability of strings of aircraft along various approach patterns.

Goka, T.↗

Model Structure and Climate Data Uncertainty in Historical Simulations of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle (1850–2014)

Abstract The divergence among Earth system models in the terrestrial carbon cycle has prompted interest in how to reduce uncertainty. Previous studies have identified model structural uncertainty arising from process parameterizations and parameter values. The current study highlights the importance of climate forcing in generating carbon cycle uncertainty. We use simulations in which three models (Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), CLM4.5, CLM5) with substantially different carbon cycles are forced with two climate reconstructions (CRUNCEPv7, Global Soil Wetness Project 3 version 1 (GSWP3v1)) to examine the contributions of model structure and climate to uncertainty in the carbon cycle over the period 1850–2014. Climate uncertainty for global annual net biome production exceeds one third of total uncertainty (defined as the sum of climate and model structure uncertainty) in the first half of the twentieth century, but declines after the 1950s. Global annual gross primary productivity, net primary productivity, heterotrophic respiration, and vegetation and soil carbon stocks have substantial climate uncertainty (relative to total uncertainty) throughout the simulation period. Climate forcing contributes more than one half of total uncertainty for these carbon cycle fluxes and stocks throughout boreal North America and Eurasia, some midlatitude regions, and in eastern Amazonia and western equatorial Africa during the decade 2000–2009. Comparison with observationally based data sets of the carbon cycle using model benchmarking methods provides insight into strengths and deficiencies among models and climate forcings, but we caution against overreliance on benchmarking to discriminate among models. The conceptualization of uncertainty arising from this study implies embracing multiple feasible model simulations rather than focusing on which model or simulation is best.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Moving With Parasites: Relationships Between Animal Movement and Infectious Disease Across Systems and Scales

Animal movement patterns are important for ecological processes such as population dynamics and infectious disease transmission. Because animals move in response to environmental cues like temperature and precipitation, changes to the environment – whether they are seasonal, interannual, or long-term – can change these processes, leading to changes in population sizes or infectious disease prevalence across space and time. My work uses a combination of simulation modeling and data analysis at multiple spatial and temporal scales to understand the environment-movement-disease connection in diverse animal taxa and environments. In this seminar, I will highlight the diverse ways that the environment can influence infectious disease dynamics via changes to animal movement patterns, including through a global study of migration in ungulate populations, a study of American White Ibis adapting to urban environments in South Florida, and examples of avian influenza prevalence in wild waterfowl. Together, these examples highlight that understanding environment-movement interactions can help predict how infectious disease dynamics might change in the future, as changes to climate, land use, and habitats alter animal movement patterns.

Animal movement↗

Evaluating Building Energy Code Compliance and Savings Potential through Large-Scale Simulation with Models Inferred by Field Data

Building energy code compliance is the crucial link between the actual energy savings and the efficiency prescribed in energy codes. A research project aiming to identify opportunities to reduce energy consumption in new single-family residential construction by increasing compliance with the building energy code was conducted in several states of the United States. The study was comprised of three phases: (1) a baseline study to document typical practice and identify opportunities for improvement based on empirical data gathered from the field; (2) an education and training phase targeting the opportunities identified; and (3) a post-study to assess whether a reduction in average state-wide energy use could be achieved following the education and training phase. We proposed a novel methodology based on large-scale building energy simulation inferred by limited field data to assess the performance of a large population of homes. This paper presents the methodology, findings, and results of this study. The state-wide average energy consumption decreased at Phase III from Phase I for five of the seven states involved in the analysis. The measure-level savings potential analysis shows an overall reduction. Overall, the training and education phase plays a recognizable role in improving compliance with building energy codes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Report on Advanced Detector Development

Neutron, gamma and charged particle detection improvements are key to supporting many of the foreseen measurements and systems envisioned in the R&D programs and the future fuel cycle requirements, such as basic nuclear physics and data, modeling and simulation, reactor instrumentation, criticality safety, materials management and safeguards. This task will focus on the developmental needs of the FCR&D experimental programs, such as elastic/inelastic scattering, total cross sections and fission neutron spectra measurements, and will leverage a number of existing neutron detector development efforts and programs, such as those at LANL, PNNL, INL, and IAC as well as those at many universities, some of whom are funded under NE grants and contracts. Novel materials and fabrication processes combined with state-of-the-art electronics and computing provide new opportunities for revolutionary detector systems that will be able to meet the high precision needs of the program. This work will be closely coordinated with the Nuclear Data Crosscut. The Advanced Detector Development effort is a broadly-focused activity that supports the development of improved nuclear data measurements and improved detection of nuclear reactions and reactor conditions. This work supports the design and construction of large-scale, multiple component detectors to provide nuclear reaction data of unprecedented quality and precision. Examples include the Time Projection Chamber (TPC) and the DANCE detector at LANL. This work also supports the fabrication and end-user application of novel scintillator materials detection and monitoring.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Artificial Scientist: in-Transit Machine Learning of Plasma Simulations

Large-scale simulations or scientific experiments produce petabytes of data per run. This poses massive challenges for I/O and storage when scientific analysis workflows are run manually offline. Unsupervised deep learning-based techniques to extract patterns and non-linear relations from these large amounts of data provide a way to build scientific understanding from raw data, reducing the need for manual pre-selection of analysis steps, but require exascale compute and memory to process the full dataset available. In this paper, we demonstrate a heterogeneous streaming workflow in which plasma simulation data is streamed directly to a Machine Learning (ML) application training a model on the simulation data in-transit, completely circumventing the capacity-constrained filesystem bottleneck. This workflow employs openPMD to provide a high level interface to describe scientific data and also uses ADIOS2, to transfer volumes of data that exceed the capabilities of the filesystem. We employ experience replay to avoid catastrophic forgetting in learning from this non-steady state process in a continual manner and adapt it to improve model convergence while learning in-transit. As a proof-of-concept, we approach the ill-posed inverse problem of predicting particle dynamics from radiation in a particle-incell (PIConGPU) simulation of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI). We detail hardware-software co-design challenges as we scale PIConGPU to full Frontier, the Top-1 system as of June 2024 Top500 list.

Kelling, Jeffrey [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossen↗

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Pattern Language for High-Performance Computing Resilience

High-performance computing systems (HPC) provide powerful capabilities for modeling, simulation, and data analytics for a broad class of computational problems. They enable extreme performance of the order of quadrillion floating-point arithmetic calculations per second by aggregating the power of millions of compute, memory, networking and storage components. With the rapidly growing scale and complexity of HPC systems for achieving even greater performance, ensuring their reliable operation in the face of system degradations and failures is a critical challenge. System fault events often lead the scientific applications to produce incorrect results, or may even cause their untimely termination. The sheer number of components in modern extreme-scale HPC systems and the complex interactions and dependencies among the hardware and software components, the applications, and the physical environment makes the design of practical solutions that support fault resilience a complex undertaking. To manage this complexity, we developed a methodology for designing HPC resilience solutions using design patterns. We codified the well-known techniques for handling faults, errors and failures that have been devised, applied and improved upon over the past three decades in the form of design patterns. In this paper, we present a pattern language to enable a structured approach to the development of HPC resilience solutions. The pattern language reveals the relations among the resilience patterns and provides the means to explore alternative techniques for handling a specific fault model that may have different efficiency and complexity characteristics. Using the pattern language enables the design and implementation of comprehensive resilience solutions as a set of interconnected resilience patterns that can be instantiated across layers of the system stack.

Hukerikar, Saurabh↗

Reconstruction of beam parameters and betatron radiation spectra measured with a Compton spectrometer

The photon flux resulting from high-energy electron beam interactions with high-field systems, such as those found in the upcoming FACET-II experiments at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, yields deep insight into the electron beam’s underlying dynamics during the interaction. However, extracting this information is an intricate process. To demonstrate how to approach this challenge using modern methods, this paper utilizes simulated data that models plasma wakefield acceleration-derived betatron radiation in experiments to determine reliable methods of reconstructing key beam and beam-plasma interaction properties. For betatron radiation measurements, translating the observed 200⁢ keV to 30⁢ MeV photon double-differential energy-angle spectra obtained from an advanced Compton spectrometer requires testing multiple methods to optimize the pipeline from its response to incident electron beam information. The paper compares maximum likelihood estimation and machine learning to refine the translation of photon spectra into precise electron beam metrics, such as spot size, energy, and emittance, enhancing the understanding of beam behavior within these dense, high-field environments. We also introduce machine learning and the expected maximization algorithm to reconstruct the primary photon spectrum, employing a multilayer neural network for regression analysis of the energy and angle spectra. With appropriate modifications, the advanced methods reproduce relevant incident beam parameters with high accuracy, even for beam sizes in the <10 μ⁢m range. This capacity is critical to understanding intense beam propagation and its optimization in plasma.

Beam code development & simulation techniques↗

Improving Sim-to-Real Transfer in Vision-Based Robot Navigation Via Instance-Level GAN-Based Data Augmentation

Achieving robust vision-based robotic tasks requires large amounts of data, which are often difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. Simulators and synthetic data offer a cost-effective alternative, but the visual gap between simulation and reality hinders the performance of models when deployed in real-world environments. In this paper, we present a data augmentation pipeline that integrates a foundation model (Segment Anything Model) with an unsupervised image-to-image translation model (CycleGAN) for instance-level domain transfer from simulation to reality. This pipeline enables the generation of realistic labeled data from synthetic images for training supervised machine learning models in vision-based navigation tasks. We evaluate our approach on real-world data for ego-vehicle pose estimation, a critical autonomous navigation task involving the prediction of cross-track position and heading angle relative to road center line markings. The results of our tests show that our GAN-based data augmentation pipeline significantly outperforms models trained solely on simulation data or on data processed with standard image augmentation methods for sim-to-real transfer, enhancing model robustness and generalizability in real-world scenarios. Our method provides a scalable and flexible data augmentation tool for leveraging large synthetic datasets to enhance vision-based robotic navigation tasks.

artificial intelligence↗

Migration of VOC Plume in the Subsurface Domain at the Y‐12 National Security Site

Abstract During the production of thermonuclear fusion weapons at the Y‐12 National Security Complex (Y‐12 NSC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, between 1950 and 1963, the regional environment was extensively contaminated by volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Old Salvage Yard (OSY) on the western side of the site has been characterized as the major source of VOCs. In order to analyze the long‐term fate and transport of chlorinated VOC sources, an integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport model was developed for the Y‐12 NSC using the hydrodynamic and transport numerical package MIKE‐SHE. The model was developed considering the recent hydrogeological investigations on preferential flow and transport pathways at the site. The model was calibrated using the recorded groundwater flow and water‐quality data. The modeling simulated migration of the VOC plume for the next 100 years. Considering a range of hydrogeological and transport parameters, uncertainty of the results is discussed. The modeling predicted that tetrachloroethene, trichloroethene, and 1,2‐dichloroethene may exceed human health–related risk levels for the next 10 to 20 years. However, the contamination is unlikely to migrate to surface water under the current hydrogeological conditions and will decay below acceptable risk levels within approximately 20 years. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Methodology to Create Prototypical Building Energy Models for Existing Buildings: A Case Study on U.S. Religious Worship Buildings

Prototypical building energy models are of great significance because they are the starting point in conducting analyses for various applications, such as building energy saving potential analysis, building design, building energy market evaluation, and building energy policy-making. However, current prototypical building energy models only represent limited types of buildings in certain countries. To fill the gap, this paper proposes a methodology to systematically create prototypical building energy models. First, a six-step methodology is introduced: model input identification, data collection, data cleaning, data conversion, model simulation, and model calibration. Then, the methodology is demonstrated by a case study of creating 30 prototypical energy models for U.S. religious worship buildings, representing buildings in 15 climate zones and 2 vintages (pre- and post-1980). Finally, to show the applications of the models, the building energy saving potentials from six efficiency measures are analyzed for pre-1980 U.S. religious worship buildings in three ASHRAE Climate Zones. The results show that the maximum energy saving potentials are approximately 30% for the religious worship buildings in all three climate zones investigated.

prototype building model, building simulation, Bui↗

Optimization of operational strategies for rich gas enhanced oil recovery based on a pilot test in the Bakken tight oil reservoir

Horizontal well drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing have been demonstrated as effective approaches for stimulating oil production in the Bakken tight oil reservoir. However, after multiple years of production, primary oil recovery in the Bakken is generally less than 10% of the estimated original oil in place. Gas huff ‘n’ puff (HnP) has been tested in the Bakken Formation as an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) method; however, most field pilot test results showed no significant incremental oil production. One of the factors affecting HnP EOR performance is premature gas breakthrough, which is one of the most critical issues observed in the field because of the presence of interwell fractures. Consequently, injected gas rapidly reaches adjacent production wells without contacting reservoir rock and increasing oil recovery. Proper conformance control is therefore needed to avoid early gas breakthrough and improve EOR performance. In this study, a rich gas EOR pilot in the Bakken was carefully analyzed to collect the essential reservoir and operational data. A simulation model with 16 wells was then developed to reproduce the production history and predict the EOR performance with and without conformance control. EOR operational strategies, including single- and multiple-well HnP, with different gas injection constraints were investigated. The simulation results of single-well HnP without conformance control showed that a rich gas injection rate of at least 10 MMscfd was needed to yield meaningful incremental oil production. The strategy of conformance control via water injection could significantly improve oil production in the HnP well, but injecting an excessive amount of water also leads to water breakthrough and loss of oil production in the offset wells. By analyzing the production performance of the wells individually, the arrangement of wells was optimized for multiple-well HnP EOR. The multiwell results showed that rich gas EOR could improve oil production up to 7.4% by employing conformance control strategies. Furthermore, replacing rich gas with propane as the injection gas could result in 14% of incremental oil production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the building/street scale for a large US city

In order to advance the scientific understanding of carbon exchange with the land surface, build an effective carbon monitoring system and contribute to quantitatively-based U.S. climate change policy interests, fine spatial and temporal quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the primary greenhouse gas, is essential. Called the ‘Hestia Project’, this research effort is the first to use bottom-up methods to quantify all fossil fuel CO2 emissions down to the scale of individual buildings, road segments, and industrial/electricity production facilities on an hourly basis for an entire urban landscape. a large city (Indianapolis, Indiana USA). Here, we describe the methods used to quantify the on-site fossil fuel CO2 emissions across the city of Indianapolis, Indiana. This effort combines a series of datasets and simulation tools such as a building energy simulation model, traffic data, power production reporting and local air pollution reporting. The system is general enough to be applied to any large U.S. city and holds tremendous potential as a key component of a carbon monitoring system in addition to enabling efficient greenhouse gas mitigation and planning. We compare our estimate of fossil fuel emissions from natural gas to consumption data provided by the local gas utility. At the zip code level, we achieve a bias adjusted pearson r correlation value of 0.92 (p<0.001).

Gurney, Kevin R↗

Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China

Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Generating synthetic occupants for use in building performance simulation

Occupant behaviour simulation frameworks can employ synthetic populations to characterize occupancy and behavioural patterns in buildings based on observed demographic data at a certain geographical location. For buildings, very few synthetic occupant populations have been generated. This paper uses a Bayesian Networks (BN) structural learning approach to synthesize populations of occupants in a multi-family housing case study. Two additional cases of office occupants and senior housing residents are considered as a cross-case comparison. Furthermore, we draw upon the extended version of drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework to guide the selection of variables and data imputation. Our results show that the BN approach is powerful in learning the structure of data sets. The synthetic data sets successfully match the joint distributions of the underlying combined data sets. Experiments on the multi-family housing particularly show better performance than the office and senior housing cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data-driven material models for atomistic simulation

The central approximation made in classical molecular dynamics simulation of materials is the interatomic potential used to calculate the forces on the atoms. Great effort and ingenuity is required to construct viable functional forms and find accurate parametrizations for potentials using traditional approaches. Machine learning has emerged as an effective alternative approach to develop accurate and robust interatomic potentials. Beginning with a very general model form, the potential is learned directly from a database of electronic structure calculations and therefore can be viewed as a multiscale link between quantum and classical atomistic simulations. Risk of inaccurate extrapolation exists outside the narrow range of time and length scales where the two methods can be directly compared. Here, we use the spectral neighbor analysis potential (SNAP) and show how a fit can be produced with minimal interpolation errors which is also robust in extrapolating beyond training. To demonstrate the approach, we have developed a tungsten-beryllium potential suitable for the full range of binary compositions. Subsequently, large-scale molecular dynamics simulations were performed of high energy Be atom implantation onto the (001) surface of solid tungsten. The machine learned W-Be potential generates a population of implantation structures consistent with quantum calculations of defect formation energies. A very shallow ( < 2 nm ) average Be implantation depth is predicted which may explain ITER diverter degradation in the presence of beryllium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Augmented Topological Descriptors of Pore Networks for Material Science

One potential solution to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the geologic storage of captured CO 2 in underground rock formations, also known as carbon sequestration. There is ongoing research to guarantee that this process is both efficient and safe. We describe tools that provide measurements of media porosity, and permeability estimates, including visualization of pore structures. Existing standard algorithms make limited use of geometric information in calculating permeability of complex microstructures. This quantity is important for the analysis of biomineralization, a subsurface process that can affect physical properties of porous media. This paper introduces geometric and topological descriptors that enhance the estimation of material permeability. Our analysis framework includes the processing of experimental data, segmentation, and feature extraction and making novel use of multiscale topological analysis to quantify maximum flow through porous networks. We illustrate our results using synchrotron-based X-ray computed microtomography of glass beads during biomineralization. As a result, we also benchmark the proposed algorithms using simulated data sets modeling jammed packed bead beds of a monodispersive material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗