Hydrologic Model Analyses for Decision Support at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site - 18363
Modeling hydrologic flow and transport in the subsurface presents a number of challenges including large datasets that contain limited information about the properties of the subsurface and models with a large number of parameters characterizing the properties of the subsurface and the ambient hydrologic conditions (e.g., groundwater recharge). This, in turn, leads to substantial uncertainty in predictions about quantities of interest (e.g., the concentration of a contaminant at points of compliance). We present a number of methods and tools that have recently been developed to address these problems. The model calibration tools are capable of assimilating large datasets (for example, on the order of 1,000,000 model calibration targets) into numerical models, calibrating models with a large number of model parameters (on the order of 1,000,000), or both. These tools leverage recently developed methods in numerical linear algebra such as matrix-free methods and randomized matrix sketching. The uncertainty quantification tools are highly-parallel and enable us to robustly quantify the uncertainties in model parameters (and therefore uncertainty in quantities of interest). Having these capabilities in model analysis tools enables more informed decision making related to remediation of groundwater contaminants. The model analyses that we present are related to the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) chromium site. The analyses are performed by MADS (Model Analysis and Decision Support; http://mads.lanl.gov). (authors)