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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Augmenting machine learning of energy landscapes with local structural information

We present a machine learning approach for accurately predicting formation energies of binary compounds in the context of crystal structure predictions. The success of any machine learning model depends significantly on the choice of representation used to encode the relevant physical information into machine-learnable data. We test different representation schemes based on partial radial and angular distribution functions (RDF+ADF) on Al–Ni and Cd–Te structures generated using our genetic algorithm for structure prediction. We observe a remarkable improvement in predictive accuracy upon transitioning from global to atom-centered representations, resulting in a threefold decrease in prediction errors. We show that a support vector regression model using a combination of atomic radial and angular distribution functions performs best at the formation energy prediction task, providing small root mean squared errors of 3.9 meV/atom and 10.9 meV/atom for Al–Ni and Cd–Te, respectively. We test the performance of our models against common traditional descriptors and find that RDF- and ADF-based representations significantly outperform many of those in the prediction of formation energies. The high accuracy of predictions makes our machine learning models great candidates for the exploration of energy landscapes.

Honrao, Shreyas J. (ORCID:0000000166155257)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling scientific machine learning in MOOSE using Libtorch

A neural-network-based machine learning interface has been developed for the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The interface relies on Libtorch, the C++ front-end of PyTorch, and enables an online interaction between modern machine learning algorithms and all the existing simulation, modeling, and analysis processes available in MOOSE. New capabilities in MOOSE include the native generation and training of artificial neural networks together with options to load pretrained neural networks in TorchScript format. Furthermore, the MOOSE stochastic tools module (MOOSE-STM) has been enhanced with neural network-based surrogate and reduced-order model generation options for efficient stochastic analyses. Lastly, a reinforcement learning capability has been added to MOOSE-STM for the interactive control and optimization of complex multiphysics problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalization in quantum machine learning from few training data

Modern quantum machine learning (QML) methods involve variationally optimizing a parameterized quantum circuit on a training data set, and subsequently making predictions on a testing data set (i.e., generalizing). In this work, we provide a comprehensive study of generalization performance in QML after training on a limited number N of training data points. We show that the generalization error of a quantum machine learning model with T trainable gates scales at worst as $\sqrt{T/N}$. When only K$\ll$T gates have undergone substantial change in the optimization process, we prove that the generalization error improves to $\sqrt{K/N}$. Our results imply that the compiling of unitaries into a polynomial number of native gates, a crucial application for the quantum computing industry that typically uses exponential-size training data, can be sped up significantly. We also show that classification of quantum states across a phase transition with a quantum convolutional neural network requires only a very small training data set. Other potential applications include learning quantum error correcting codes or quantum dynamical simulation. Our work injects new hope into the field of QML, as good generalization is guaranteed from few training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synergy of semiempirical models and machine learning in computational chemistry

Catalyzed by enormous success in the industrial sector, many research programs have been exploring data-driven, machine learning approaches. Performance can be poor when the model is extrapolated to new regions of chemical space, e.g., new bonding types, new many-body interactions. Another important limitation is the spatial locality assumption in model architecture, and this limitation cannot be overcome with larger or more diverse datasets. The outlined challenges are primarily associated with the lack of electronic structure information in surrogate models such as interatomic potentials. Given the fast development of machine learning and computational chemistry methods, we expect some limitations of surrogate models to be addressed in the near future; nevertheless spatial locality assumption will likely remain a limiting factor for their transferability. Here, we suggest focusing on an equally important effort—design of physics-informed models that leverage the domain knowledge and employ machine learning only as a corrective tool. In the context of material science, we will focus on semi-empirical quantum mechanics, using machine learning to predict corrections to the reduced-order Hamiltonian model parameters. The resulting models are broadly applicable, retain the speed of semiempirical chemistry, and frequently achieve accuracy on par with much more expensive ab initio calculations. These early results indicate that future work, in which machine learning and quantum chemistry methods are developed jointly, may provide the best of all worlds for chemistry applications that demand both high accuracy and high numerical efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass 2021 Computational Frontier CompF03 Topical Group Report: Machine Learning

The rapidly-developing intersection of machine learning (ML) with high-energy physics (HEP) presents both opportunities and challenges to our community. Far beyond applications of standard ML tools to HEP problems, genuinely new and potentially revolutionary approaches are being developed by a generation of talent literate in both fields. There is an urgent need to support the needs of the interdisciplinary community driving these developments, including funding dedicated research at the intersection of the two fields, investing in high-performance computing at universities and tailoring allocation policies to support this work, developing of community tools and standards, and providing education and career paths for young researchers attracted by the intellectual vitality of machine learning for high energy physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Redshifts of radio sources in the Million Quasars Catalogue from machine learning

ABSTRACT With the aim of using machine learning techniques to obtain photometric redshifts based upon a source’s radio spectrum alone, we have extracted the radio sources from the Million Quasars Catalogue. Of these, 44 119 have a spectroscopic redshift, required for model validation, and for which photometry could be obtained. Using the radio spectral properties as features, we fail to find a model which can reliably predict the redshifts, although there is the suggestion that the models improve with the size of the training sample. Using the near-infrared–optical–ultraviolet bands magnitudes, we obtain reliable predictions based on the 12 503 radio sources which have all of the required photometry. From the 80:20 training–validation split, this gives only 2501 validation sources, although training the sample upon our previous SDSS model gives comparable results for all 12 503 sources. This makes us confident that SkyMapper, which will survey southern sky in the u, v, g, r, i, z bands, can be used to predict the redshifts of radio sources detected with the Square Kilometre Array. By using machine learning to impute the magnitudes missing from much of the sample, we can predict the redshifts for 32 698 sources, an increase from 28 to 74 per cent of the sample, at the cost of increasing the outlier fraction by a factor of 1.4. While the ‘optical’ band data prove successful, at this stage we cannot rule out the possibility of a radio photometric redshift, given sufficient data which may be necessary to overcome the relatively featureless radio spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of machine learning for modeling brønsted-guggenheim-scatchard specific ion interaction theory (SIT) coefficients

Machine learning methodologies can provide insight into Brønsted-Guggenheim-Scatchard specific ion interaction theory (SIT) parameter values where experimental data availability may be limited. This study develops and executes machine learning frameworks to model the SIT interaction coefficient, ε. Key findings include successful estimations of ε via artificial neural networks using clustering and value prediction approaches. Additionally, applicability to other chemical parameters is also assessed briefly. Models developed here provide support for a use-case of machine learning in geologic nuclear waste disposal research applications, namely in predictions of chemical behaviors of high ionic strength solutions (i.e., subsurface brines).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prospects of federated machine learning in fluid dynamics

Physics-based models have been mainstream in fluid dynamics for developing predictive models. In recent years, machine learning has offered a renaissance to the fluid community due to the rapid developments in data science, processing units, neural network based technologies, and sensor adaptations. So far in many applications in fluid dynamics, machine learning approaches have been mostly focused on a standard process that requires centralizing the training data on a designated machine or in a data center. In this article, we present a federated machine learning approach that enables localized clients to collaboratively learn an aggregated and shared predictive model while keeping all the training data on each edge device. We demonstrate the feasibility and prospects of such a decentralized learning approach with an effort to forge a deep learning surrogate model for reconstructing spatiotemporal fields. Our results indicate that federated machine learning might be a viable tool for designing highly accurate predictive decentralized digital twins relevant to fluid dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Driven Contouring of High-Frequency Four-Dimensional Cardiac Ultrasound Data

Automatic boundary detection of 4D ultrasound (4DUS) cardiac data is a promising yet challenging application at the intersection of machine learning and medicine. Using recently developed murine 4DUS cardiac imaging data, we demonstrate here a set of three machine learning models that predict left ventricular wall kinematics along both the endo- and epi-cardial boundaries. Each model is fundamentally built on three key features: (1) the projection of raw US data to a lower dimensional subspace, (2) a smoothing spline basis across time, and (3) a strategic parameterization of the left ventricular boundaries. Model 1 is constructed such that boundary predictions are based on individual short-axis images, regardless of their relative position in the ventricle. Model 2 simultaneously incorporates parallel short-axis image data into their predictions. Model 3 builds on the multi-slice approach of model 2, but assists predictions with a single ground-truth position at end-diastole. To assess the performance of each model, Monte Carlo cross validation was used to assess the performance of each model on unseen data. For predicting the radial distance of the endocardium, models 1, 2, and 3 yielded average R2 values of 0.41, 0.49, and 0.71, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations of the endocardial wall showed significantly closer predictions when using model 2 versus model 1 at a rate of 48.67%, and using model 3 versus model 2 at a rate of 83.50%. These finding suggest that a machine learning approach where multi-slice data are simultaneously used as input and predictions are aided by a single user input yields the most robust performance. Subsequently, we explore the how metrics of cardiac kinematics compare between ground-truth contours and predicted boundaries. We observed negligible deviations from ground-truth when using predicted boundaries alone, except in the case of early diastolic strain rate, providing confidence for the use of such machine learning models for rapid and reliable assessments of murine cardiac function. To our knowledge, this is the first application of machine learning to murine left ventricular 4DUS data. Future work will be needed to strengthen both model performance and applicability to different cardiac disease models.

4D ultrasound↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantum adiabatic machine learning by zooming into a region of the energy surface

Recent work has shown that quantum annealing for machine learning, referred to as QAML, can perform comparably to state-of-the-art machine learning methods with a specific application to Higgs boson classification. Here, we propose QAML-Z, an algorithm that iteratively zooms in on a region of the energy surface by mapping the problem to a continuous space and sequentially applying quantum annealing to an augmented set of weak classifiers. Results on a programmable quantum annealer show that QAML-Z matches classical deep neural network performance at small training set sizes and reduces the performance margin between QAML and classical deep neural networks by almost 50% at large training set sizes, as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The significant improvement of quantum annealing algorithms for machine learning and the use of a discrete quantum algorithm on a continuous optimization problem both opens a class of problems that can be solved by quantum annealers and suggests the approach in performance of near-term quantum machine learning towards classical benchmarks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly transferable atomistic machine-learning potentials from curated and compact datasets across the periodic table

Machine learning atomistic potentials trained using density functional theory (DFT) datasets allow for the modeling of complex material properties with near-DFT accuracy while imposing a fraction of its computational cost. The curation of the DFT datasets can be extensive in size and time-consuming to train and refine. In this study, we focus on addressing these barriers by developing minimalistic and flexible datasets for many elements in the periodic table regardless of their mass, electronic configuration, and ground state lattice. These DFT datasets have on average, ~4000 different structures and 27 atoms per structure, which we found sufficient to maintain the predictive accuracy of DFT properties and notably with high transferability. We envision these highly curated training sets as starting points for the community to expand, modify, or use with other machine learning atomistic potential models, whatever may suit individual needs, further accelerating the utilization of machine learning as a tool for material design and discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular dipole moment learning via rotationally equivariant derivative kernels in molecular-orbital-based machine learning

This study extends the accurate and transferable molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) approach to modeling the contribution of electron correlation to dipole moments at the cost of Hartree–Fock computations. A MOB pairwise decomposition of the correlation part of the dipole moment is applied, and these pair dipole moments could be further regressed as a universal function of MOs. The dipole MOB features consist of the energy MOB features and their responses to electric fields. An interpretable and rotationally equivariant derivative kernel for Gaussian process regression (GPR) is introduced to learn the dipole moment more efficiently. The proposed problem setup, feature design, and ML algorithm are shown to provide highly accurate models for both dipole moments and energies on water and 14 small molecules. To demonstrate the ability of MOB-ML to function as generalized density-matrix functionals for molecular dipole moments and energies of organic molecules, we further apply the proposed MOB-ML approach to train and test the molecules from the QM9 dataset. The application of local scalable GPR with Gaussian mixture model unsupervised clustering GPR scales up MOB-ML to a large-data regime while retaining the prediction accuracy. In addition, compared with the literature results, MOB-ML provides the best test mean absolute errors of 4.21 mD and 0.045 kcal/mol for dipole moment and energy models, respectively, when training on 110 000 QM9 molecules. The excellent transferability of the resulting QM9 models is also illustrated by the accurate predictions for four different series of peptides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗