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Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing Regional Energy Consumption for Direct Drone and Truck Deliveries

Drone delivery, once thought of as fictitious, is becoming a reality with the efforts of both forward-looking enterprises and supportive government policies. This emerging mode of e-commerce delivery raises many concerns. One important concern is the energy efficiency of direct delivery drones compared with conventional delivery trucks at a regional systems level. Here, in this study, we develop and apply methods to quantify the regional energy impacts of drone delivery, then we assess these impacts and compare them with the impacts of truck delivery. To study this problem, we develop an optimization model that determines an optimal set of fulfillment centers (FCs) with variable service capacities that allow drones to make direct e-commerce deliveries. We adopt two drone delivery energy estimation models from the literature and use them as inputs to demonstrate the potential range of energy needs. We also develop another optimization model to account for the energy consumption of diesel trucks (DTs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We test the models using validated simulation data for the Chicago metropolitan area in the U.S. to quantify the energy implications of these three delivery modes. For drone delivery, we further extend our analyses by considering the impact of wind speed and flight patterns. Our results show that direct delivery drones require 15.8% more energy than BEVs on an average windy day, and they need 15% more energy than DTs on a very windy day. We provide essential parameter values for reproducibility and list relevant open problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Novel Protection Scheme for Unbalanced Faults in Inverter Dominated Networks: A Computationally Efficient Algorithm for Entry-Level Relays

Microgrids are now a common practice in distribution systems to increase resilience and reliability. However, microgrid protection remains a critical challenge, considering its requirement to operate in both grid connected and islanded, and the variability in fault characteristics under each mode of operation. This paper presents unbalanced power (S unb ) based fault detection algorithm, which considers local voltage and current unbalances to determine faults in the system. S unb is a computationally efficient fault detection algorithm that is suitable for implementation in the programmable logic of entry level protective relays. In addition, the difference in current and voltage unbalance (D n ) is used to determine the fault type. The proposed method demonstrates high sensitivity and selectivity for line-to-ground (LG), line-to-line (LL), and double line-to-ground (LLG) faults, representing the most common faults in distribution systems. It also allows relay coordination with upstream and downstream protection devices in both island and grid connected operation, while preserving grading margins. The same pickup and time multiplier settings of a particular relay for both modes of operation eliminates the need for adaptive settings, which rely on communication networks. Validation was performed with a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setup using Typhoon HIL real time simulator interfaced with three entry-level, SEL 751 relays. Results confirmed the algorithm’s ability to discriminate fault conditions, and determine the fault type under both operating modes, maintain fast detection times, and ensure proper protection coordination.

fault classification↗

Rovibrationally resolved Rayleigh and Raman scattering cross sections for molecular hydrogen

Accurate Rayleigh and Raman scattering cross sections, tensor components, depolarization ratios, and reversal coefficients for all rovibrational transitions within the X1Σg+ ground electronic state of H2 have been calculated. Raman spectra have been generated using these data. A method for calculating Raman scattering cross sections is formulated that is valid below the ionization threshold and in the region containing resonances, which explicitly accounts for all bound and dissociative vibrational levels of the bound intermediate electronic states and approximately accounts for the ionization continuum. A representative set of cross sections is presented for incident photon energies below 15 eV and compared with existing results in the literature where possible. Convergence of our results with an increasing number of bound intermediate electronic states is demonstrated. The accuracy of the Placzek–Teller approximation is discussed. The effect of accounting for the intermediate ionization continuum is investigated. Local thermal equilibrium cross sections are calculated for Rayleigh and Raman scattering. This work represents the most accurate and complete treatment of Raman scattering for molecular hydrogen to date. A total of 9582 Rayleigh and Raman scattering cross sections have been generated and are openly available on Zenodo under an open-source Creative Commons Attribution license at https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.13441471.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Quantum simulation of $\phi^4$ theories in qudit systems

We discuss the implementation of quantum algorithms for lattice $\Phi^4$ theory on circuit quantum electrodynamics (cQED) system. The field is represented on qudits in a discretized field amplitude basis. The main advantage of qudit systems is that its multi-level characteristic allows the field interaction to be implemented only with diagonal single-qudit gates. Considering the set of universal gates formed by the single-qudit phase gate and the displacement gate, we address initial state preparation and single-qudit gate synthesis with variational methods.

Kurkcuoglu, Doga Murat↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Contaminant Investigation and Pre‐Processing Opportunities for Textile‐To‐Textile Recycling

Millions of metric tons of textiles are landfilled or incinerated each year in the United States, with less than 1% of textiles recycled into new clothing or fabrics. To counter this trend, a growing number of companies and researchers are exploring how a circular economy can be applied to support textile‐to‐textile recycling. A significant barrier they face comes down to quickly and efficiently extracting pure feedstock material from post‐consumer garments that feature a mix of natural and synthetic fibers. Textile recyclers prefer pure feedstocks, as working with mixed sources typically means lower throughput, higher risk of equipment failure, and diminished business margins. To facilitate a circular economy for textiles, methods, and technologies are needed that can efficiently separate out materials and contaminants from end‐of‐life textiles to increase the flow of pure feedstocks to recyclers. This paper summarizes findings from interviews with a cross section of textile recyclers and from a review of literature to define basic feedstock requirements. In addition to our qualitative research, we deconstruct a bale of post‐consumer textiles and analyze them using computer‐vision imaging, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and machine learning. The resulting data are used to set system‐level design inputs for an automated contaminant removal system to process post‐consumer clothing into appropriate feedstocks for recycling. To set the system's levels for automated real‐time near‐infrared analysis, we identify the minimum percentage of primary material that any single garment in a load of used clothing must contain for the average of the full output stream to meet the target purity levels of recyclers. Here, the envisioned automated system can also address undesirable trace materials that might contaminate the processed stream by using imaging cameras coupled with artificial intelligence to identify sections of clothing for de‐trimming. Proof‐of‐concept machine learning algorithms are evaluated to locate and identify trims or garment areas with hidden contaminant materials. Integrating these methods into automated textile cutting systems can provide a cost‐effective means for increasing feedstock purity from used clothing, which can advance circularity for textiles by helping recyclers to reach production volumes and quality targets that were not possible solely with manual dismantling operations.

Parsons, Ryan [Rochester Institute of Technology, ↗

Understanding Isomeric Effects on Properties of Aviation Fuels via a Group Contribution Method: Preprint

The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xJR NEON Jornada LTER (JORN)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xJR NEON Jornada LTER (JORN). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xJR NEON Jornada LTER (JORN) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Land use at Jornada has contrasting livestock grazing histories (including ungrazed lands), dating back to 1902, which are representative of the pervasive land use in desert-southwest wildlands. Historical accounts of the region report significant changes in vegetation starting in the late 1800s coincident with the expansion of livestock grazing. By 1912, sufficiently dramatic changes lead area scientists and private landowners to convince the U.S. government to set aside Public Domain Lands for the Jornada Range Reserve for the purpose of scientific investigation on shrub invasion and subsequent loss of forage grasses. Much of this early research focused on quantifying utilization levels for forage species, developing livestock production strategies to deal with drought, and developing methods for shrub control and grass recovery. Exclosures were constructed and long-term plots were established throughout the range to monitor the continued expansion of shrubs across the landscape. Over the decades, numerous trials of various remediation approaches were implemented, from manual and mechanical shrub removal to herbicide application to construction of terraces or other means of redirecting surface flow of runoff.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗

Impacts of Price Formation Efforts Considering High Renewable Penetration Levels and System Resource Adequacy Targets

Future markets with very high penetrations of renewable energy could have many low- to zero-cost periods, which would reduce energy revenues for the generation fleet. This can impact the ability of resources that are needed for long-term reliability to recover operating and capital costs. This paper explores the impact of an alternative pricing mechanism, relaxed minimum pricing, on revenue sufficiency on existing and future resource mixes, including those with high penetrations of wind and solar. This study evaluates eight scenarios encompassing three different sensitivity categories: (1) one alternative pricing mechanism versus traditional LMP pricing, (2) high versus low renewable penetration levels, and (3) using a resource mix that has been adjusted to a preset resource adequacy target versus one that contains a full set of resources. Results show renewable penetration has a greater impact on pricing and resulting profits than does the adjusted resource mix, the two pricing methods have modest variations in profits, and prices under the higher renewable penetration case were higher than under low renewable penetration. These conclusions are not intended to be direct predictions for future outcomes but rather to lead to additional research on the impacts of pricing on investment incentives and future resource adequacy targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Redefining Resource Adequacy for Modern Power Systems: A Report of the Redefining Resource Adequacy Task Force

Today's rapidly increasing levels of wind, solar, storage, and load flexibility require the industry to rethink reliability planning and resource adequacy methods for modern power systems. Periods with a risk of shortfall often no longer coincide with peak demand - reliability risks are less about peak load and more about the daily setting of the sun, extended cloud cover, wind speeds, cold snaps, and heat waves. In addition, demand is increasingly flexible. Key resources are time-sensitive, as batteries need time to recharge and electricity customers can only be asked to provide demand response for just so long. And reliability failures are often correlated - with one another and with the weather. Two driving factors require the industry to reconsider its analytical approach for resource adequacy: (1) Chronological grid operations: The increasing importance of variable renewable resources (such as wind and solar) and of energy-limited resources (storage and demand response) make it essential to understand the full year of chronological operation of the grid. Specific attention must be paid to hourly, seasonal, and inter-annual resource variability. The sequence of the variability is key, as energy-limited resources such as batteries or demand response require either a preceding period or subsequent period of high production to be useful for grid reliability. (2) Correlated events: Historically, resource adequacy analysis focused on shortfalls caused by random, discrete mechanical failures of large generating units. In contrast, shortfalls today are often caused by multiple, correlated events caused by common weather patterns. Resource adequacy analysis must increasingly shift its focus to these correlated events. The redesign of resource adequacy methods will benefit from a set of guiding principles to better allow for sharing of insights and best practices, interregional resource coordination, and a smoother regulatory process for resource procurement. The objective of this report is to move this redesign forward. It provides an overview of key drivers changing the way resource adequacy needs to be evaluated, identifies shortcomings of conventional approaches, and outlines first principles for practitioners to consider as they adapt their approaches. The central message is: what got us here won't get us there.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

When Spectral Modeling Meets Convolutional Networks: A Method for Discovering Reionization-era Lensed Quasars in Multiband Imaging Data

Over the last two decades, around 300 quasars have been discovered at z ≳ 6, yet only one has been identified as being strongly gravitationally lensed. We explore a new approach—enlarging the permitted spectral parameter space, while introducing a new spatial geometry veto criterion—which is implemented via image-based deep learning. We first apply this approach to a systematic search for reionization-era lensed quasars, using data from the Dark Energy Survey, the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy Hemisphere Survey, and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Our search method consists of two main parts: (i) the preselection of the candidates, based on their spectral energy distributions (SEDs), using catalog-level photometry; and (ii) relative probability calculations of the candidates being a lens or some contaminant, utilizing a convolutional neural network (CNN) classification. The training data sets are constructed by painting deflected point-source lights over actual galaxy images, to generate realistic galaxy–quasar lens models, optimized to find systems with small image separations, i.e., Einstein radii of θ E ≤ 1''. Visual inspection is then performed for sources with CNN scores of P lens > 0.1, which leads us to obtain 36 newly selected lens candidates, which are awaiting spectroscopic confirmation. These findings show that automated SED modeling and deep learning pipelines, supported by modest human input, are a promising route for detecting strong lenses from large catalogs, which can overcome the veto limitations of primarily dropout-based SED selection approaches.

High-redshift galaxies↗

Towards verifiable cancer digital twins: tissue level modeling protocol for precision medicine

Cancer exhibits substantial heterogeneity, manifesting as distinct morphological and molecular variations across tumors, which frequently undermines the efficacy of conventional oncological treatments. Developments in multiomics and sequencing technologies have paved the way for unraveling this heterogeneity. Nevertheless, the complexity of the data gathered from these methods cannot be fully interpreted through multimodal data analysis alone. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in delineating the underlying mechanisms to explain sources of heterogeneity using patient-specific data. Intra-tumoral diversity necessitates the development of precision oncology therapies utilizing multiphysics, multiscale mathematical models for cancer. This review discusses recent advancements in computational methodologies for precision oncology, highlighting the potential of cancer digital twins to enhance patient-specific decision-making in clinical settings. We review computational efforts in building patient-informed cellular and tissue-level models for cancer and propose a computational framework that utilizes agent-based modeling as an effective conduit to integrate cancer systems models that encode signaling at the cellular scale with digital twin models that predict tissue-level response in a tumor microenvironment customized to patient information. Furthermore, we discuss machine learning approaches to building surrogates for these complex mathematical models. These surrogates can potentially be used to conduct sensitivity analysis, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification, which is especially important for tumor studies due to their dynamic nature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The many-body electronic interactions of Fe(II)–porphyrin

Fe(II)–porphyrin complexes exhibit a diverse range of electronic interactions between the metal and macrocycle. Herein, the incremental full configuration interaction method is applied to the entire space of valence orbitals of a Fe(II)–porphyrin model using a modest basis set. A novel visualization framework is proposed to analyze individual many-body contributions to the correlation energy, providing detailed maps of this complex’s highly correlated electronic structure. Furthermore, this technique is used to parse the numerous interactions of two low-lying triplet states ( 3 A 2 g and 3 E g ) and to show that strong metal d–d and macrocycle π–π orbital interactions preferentially stabilize the 3 A 2 g state. d–π interactions, on the other hand, preferentially stabilize the 3 E g state and primarily appear when correlating six electrons at a time. Ultimately, the Fe(II)–porphyrin model’s full set of 88 valence electrons are correlated in 275 orbitals, showing the interactions up to the 4-body level, which covers the great majority of correlations in this system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Direct cosmological inference from three-dimensional correlations of the Lyman α forest

ABSTRACT When performing cosmological inference, standard analyses of the Lyman α (Ly α) three-dimensional correlation functions only consider the information carried by the distinct peak produced by baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). In this work, we address whether this compression is sufficient to capture all the relevant cosmological information carried by these functions. We do this by performing a direct fit to the full shape, including all physical scales without compression, of synthetic Ly α autocorrelation functions and cross-correlations with quasars at effective redshift zeff = 2.3, assuming a DESI-like survey, and providing a comparison to the classic method applied to the same data set. Our approach leads to a $3.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ constraint on the matter density ΩM, which is about three to four times better than what BAO alone can probe. The growth term fσ8(zeff) is constrained to the $10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ level, and the spectral index ns to $\sim 3-4{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. We demonstrate that the extra information resulting from our ‘direct fit’ approach, except for the ns constraint, can be traced back to the Alcock–Paczynski effect and redshift space distortion information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Learning Molecular Mixture Property Using Chemistry-Aware Graph Neural Network

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) are expediting materials discovery and design. One significant challenge facing ML for materials is the expansive combinatorial space of potential materials formed by diverse constituents and their flexible configurations. This complexity is particularly evident in molecular mixtures, a frequently explored space for materials, such as battery electrolytes. Owing to the complex structures of molecules and the sequence-independent nature of mixtures, conventional ML methods have difficulties in modeling such systems. Here, we present MolSets, a specialized ML model for molecular mixtures, to overcome the difficulties. Representing individual molecules as graphs and their mixture as a set, MolSets leverages a graph neural network and the deep sets architecture to extract information at the molecular level and aggregate it at the mixture level, thus addressing local complexity while retaining global flexibility. We demonstrate the efficacy of MolSets in predicting the conductivity of lithium battery electrolytes and highlight its benefits in the virtual screening of the combinatorial chemical space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Zhang, Hengrui (ORCID:0000000231831654)↗