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DOE OSTI2025

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Net Zero World Initiative’s Preliminary Analysis of Decarbonization Pathways for Five Countries

Under the Net Zero World Initiative, the United States is mobilizing the capabilities of nine U.S. government agencies, led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), to partner with philanthropies and multiple countries to cocreate and implement tailored technical and investment pathways to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. In addition, 10 of the DOE national laboratories have built a consortium housed in the Net Zero World Action Center to implement this vision by providing the deep analysis and modeling required to carry out the vision. As a whole-of-government program, the Net Zero World Initiative partners with countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put a net-zero world within reach. The initiative enables country partners to harness the convening power and technical expertise of U.S. agencies and laboratories, international industry, and technical institutions while providing the United States an opportunity to learn from and deepen U.S. technical cooperation with key countries. This report is the first of a series, with future Phase II work being informed by ongoing consultations with the partner countries to address country pathway analysis priorities. This future work will likely include evaluating detailed technological, policy, and investment options for key sectors and for energy systems holistically. This analysis may examine in greater detail the economic and social benefits of net-zero energy transitions, including quality jobs and health outcomes, the impacts of price and supply volatility on energy investments and decisions, the risk of stranded assets, and related issues.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

TASTI-GRID: Overview of the State of Oregon’s Resilience and Reliability [Slides]

This report is intended to help your state identify the most effective investments to improve grid resilience and reliability, based on analysis of outage data, weather events, and the current state of the electric grid. The information presented is derived from the best available data. The discussions and recommendations included provide context and valuable insights into potential high returns on investment (ROI). Specifically, the report offers an overview of electric grid resilience in Oregon, covering outage information, reasons for outages, calculated "resilience scores" across the state, and recommendations for both immediate and long-term investments in grid infrastructure. The document provides a concise overview of the analytical capabilities of the TASTI-GRID team. By utilizing additional data and resources, it synthesizes insights from the platform to present a distinct perspective on investing in grid resilience throughout Oregon. This document is not intended to influence or direct state-level decisions related to investments in grid resilience and reliability. TASTI-GRID should not be used for real-time monitoring, supporting the ESF #12 emergency response functions, or predicting the restoration times for outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

LDRD FY25 Program Overview

As Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enters its fifth decade of leading-edge research and development, its impact and importance have never been stronger. The program continues to advance strategic investments in pioneering science, technology, and engineering, ensuring LLNL will be ready to deliver on our mission as it evolves over the coming decades. Investing in LDRD research, and the people who perform this critical work, gives LLNL the ability to sustain our role as a leader in the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration enterprise. The LDRD program enables high-risk, high-payoff research that anticipates emerging threats and future mission needs. By nurturing the ingenuity of the Lab’s greatest asset, its people, LDRD funding advances not only our research but also grows and nurtures our workforce: engaging future innovators with student mentoring, challenging postdoctoral researchers to apply their skills to support national security, and strengthening the leadership skills of early career staff. This annual report documents how LDRD investments advance LLNL’s science, technology, and engineering across our mission space. To assess LDRD’s impact we track both short and long-term metrics such as peer-reviewed publications, number of students, or professional fellows. In addition to reviewing these metrics, I encourage you to delve deeper into the breadth of science and technology that illustrate the strategic value of this research portfolio. For instance, a recent exploratory research project used advanced manufacturing to construct miniaturized three-dimensional ion traps for a quantum computer with reduced quantum error rates to enable applications that address national security missions and support basic science. Another project has delved into studying detonation by examining deflagration to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear weapons stockpile. LDRD researchers are also deploying AI agents on two of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to automate and accelerate inertial confinement fusion experiments. Other teams are delivering more accurate optical constants to enable improved validation for aluminum to advance atomic and molecular physics models. LDRD-driven discoveries of how metals deform under extreme conditions strengthen our ability to model and design materials for demanding national security environments. National security challenges are increasingly complex and continuously evolving. LDRD focuses our most innovative science and technology on these challenges, ensuring the Laboratory is developing creative, forward-leaning solutions for our nation and the world. The following pages feature highlights of published scientific advances, patents, and honors that stem from LDRD investments. As you read this report, I hope you will understand how these investments position the Laboratory, and our partners, to meet the demands of the decades ahead.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

NASA NTRS2003

Propulsion Ground Testing: Planning for the Future

Advanced planners are constantly being asked to plan for the provision of future test capability. Historically, this capability is provided either by substantial investment in new test facility capabilities, or in the substantial investment in the modification of pre-exiting test facilities. The key words in the previous sentence are 'substantial investment.' In the evolving environment of increasingly constrained resources, how is an advanced planner to plan for the provisions of such capabilities? Additionally, the conundrum exists that program formulation decisions are being made based on both life cycle cost decisions in an environment in which the more immediate challenge of front-end capital investment oftentimes is the linchpin upon which early decisions are made. In such an environment, how are plans and decisions made? This paper cites examples of decisions made in the past in the area of both major test facility upgrades, as well as major new test facility investment.

Bruce, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2003

Propulsion Ground Testing: Planning for the Future

Advanced planners are constantly being asked to plan for the provision of future test capability. Historically, this capability is provided either by substantial investment in new test facility capabilities, or in the substantial investment in the modification of pre- existing test capabilities. The key words in the previous sentence are "substantial investment". In the evolving environment of increasingly constrained resources, how is an advanced planner to plan for the provisions of such capabilities? Additionally, the conundrum exists that program formulation decisions are being made based upon both life cycle cost decisions in an environment in which the more immediate challenge of "front-end" capital investment? Often times is the linch-pin upon which early decisions are made. In such an environment, how are plans and decisions made? This paper cites examples of decisions made in the past in the area of both major test facility upgrades, as well as major new test facility investment.

Aerospace Systems↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA Langley Research Center Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Participation in the Exploration Systems Architecture Study

The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate (SACD) began studying human exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) in the year 1999. This included participation in NASA s Decadal Planning Team (DPT), the NASA Exploration Team (NExT), Space Architect studies and Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) architecture studies that were used in formulating the new Vision for Space Exploration. In May of 2005, NASA initiated the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS). The primary outputs of the ESAS activity were concepts and functional requirements for the Crewed Exploration Vehicle (CEV), its supporting launch vehicle infrastructure and identification of supporting technology requirements and investments. An exploration systems analysis capability has evolved to support these functions in the past and continues to evolve to support anticipated future needs. SACD had significant roles in supporting the ESAS study team. SACD personnel performed the liaison function between the ESAS team and the Shuttle/Station Configuration Options Team (S/SCOT), an agency-wide team charged with using the Space Shuttle to complete the International Space Station (ISS) by the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2010. The most significant of the identified issues involved the ability of the Space Shuttle system to achieve the desired number of flights in the proposed time frame. SACD with support from the Kennedy Space Center performed analysis showing that, without significant investments in improving the shuttle processing flow, that there was almost no possibility of completing the 28-flight sequence by the end of 2010. SACD performed numerous Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM) trades to define top level element requirements and establish architecture propellant needs. Configuration trades were conducted to determine the impact of varying degrees of segmentation of the living capabilities of the combined descent stage, ascent stage, and other elements. The technology assessment process was developed and implemented by SACD as the ESAS architecture was refined. SACD implemented a rigorous and objective process which included (a) establishing architectural functional needs, (b) collection, synthesis and mapping of technology data, and (c) performing an objective decision analysis resulting in technology development investment recommendations. The investment recommendation provided budget, schedule, and center/program allocations to develop required technologies for the exploration architecture, as well as the identification of other investment opportunities to maximize performance and flexibility while minimizing cost and risk. A summary of the trades performed and methods utilized by SACD for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESAS) activity is presented along with how SACD is currently supporting the implementation of the Vision for Space Exploration.

Keyes, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRS2014

Flight Avionics Hardware Roadmap

The Avionics Technology Roadmap takes an 80% approach to technology investment in spacecraft avionics. It delineates a suite of technologies covering foundational, component, and subsystem-levels, which directly support 80% of future NASA space mission needs. The roadmap eschews high cost, limited utility technologies in favor of lower cost, and broadly applicable technologies with high return on investment. The roadmap is also phased to support future NASA mission needs and desires, with a view towards creating an optimized investment portfolio that matures specific, high impact technologies on a schedule that matches optimum insertion points of these technologies into NASA missions. The roadmap looks out over 15+ years and covers some 114 technologies, 58 of which are targeted for TRL6 within 5 years, with 23 additional technologies to be at TRL6 by 2020. Of that number, only a few are recommended for near term investment: 1. Rad Hard High Performance Computing 2. Extreme temperature capable electronics and packaging 3. RFID/SAW-based spacecraft sensors and instruments 4. Lightweight, low power 2D displays suitable for crewed missions 5. Radiation tolerant Graphics Processing Unit to drive crew displays 6. Distributed/reconfigurable, extreme temperature and radiation tolerant, spacecraft sensor controller and sensor modules 7. Spacecraft to spacecraft, long link data communication protocols 8. High performance and extreme temperature capable C&DH subsystem In addition, the roadmap team recommends several other activities that it believes are necessary to advance avionics technology across NASA: center dot Engage the OCT roadmap teams to coordinate avionics technology advances and infusion into these roadmaps and their mission set center dot Charter a team to develop a set of use cases for future avionics capabilities in order to decouple this roadmap from specific missions center dot Partner with the Software Steering Committee to coordinate computing hardware and software technology roadmaps and investment recommendations center dot Continue monitoring foundational technologies upon which future avionics technologies will be dependent, e.g., RHBD and COTS semiconductor technologies

Some, Raphael↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Physics of the Cosmos and Cosmic Origins Technology Development Programs

The strategic astrophysics missions of the coming decades will help answer the questions "How did our universe begin and evolve?" and "How did galaxies, stars, and planets come to be?" Enabling these missions requires advances in key technologies far beyond the current state of the art. NASA's Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) and Cosmic Origins (COR) Program Offices manage technology maturation projects funded through the Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program to accomplish such advances. The PCOS and COR Program Offices, residing at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), were established in 2011, and serve as the implementation arm for the Astrophysics Division at NASA Headquarters. We present an overview of the Programs' technology development activities and the current technology investment portfolio of 23 technology advancements. We discuss the process for addressing community-provided technology gaps and Technology Management Board (TMB)-vetted prioritization and investment recommendations that inform the SAT program. The process improves the transparency and relevance of our technology investments, provides the community a voice in the process, and promotes targeted external technology investments by defining needs and identifying customers. The Programs' priorities are driven by strategic direction from the Astrophysics Division, which is informed by the National Research Council's (NRC) "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics" (NWNH) 2010 Decadal Survey report [1], the Astrophysics Implementation Plan (AIP) [2] as updated, and the Astrophysics Roadmap "Enduring Quests, Daring Visions" [3]. These priorities include technology development for missions to study dark energy, gravitational waves, X-ray and inflation probe science, and large far-infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV)/optical/IR telescopes to conduct imaging and spectroscopy studies. The SAT program is the Astrophysics Division's main investment method to mature technologies that will be identified by study teams set up to inform the 2020 Decadal Survey process on several large astrophysics mission concepts.

SPIE paper↗

NASA NTRS2016

Is It Worth It? - the Economics of Reusable Space Transportation

Over the past several decades billions of dollars have been invested by governments and private companies in the pursuit of lower cost access to space through earth-to-orbit (ETO) space transportation systems. Much of that investment has been focused on the development and operation of various forms of reusable transportation systems. From the Space Shuttle to current efforts by private commercial companies, the overarching belief of those making such investments has been that reusing system elements will be cheaper than utilizing expendable systems that involve throwing away costly engines, avionics, and other hardware with each flight. However, the view that reusable systems are ultimately a "better" approach to providing ETO transportation is not held universally by major stakeholders within the space transportation industry. While the technical feasibility of at least some degree of reusability has been demonstrated, there continues to be a sometimes lively debate over the merits and drawbacks of reusable versus expendable systems from an economic perspective. In summary, is it worth it? Based on our many years of direct involvement with the business aspects of several expendable and reusable transportation systems, it appears to us that much of the discussion surrounding reusability is hindered by a failure to clearly define and understand the financial and other metrics by which the financial "goodness" of a reusable or expandable approach is measured. As stakeholders, the different users and suppliers of space transportation have a varied set of criteria for determining the relative economic viability of alternative strategies, including reusability. Many different metrics have been used to measure the affordability of space transportation, such as dollars per payload pound (kilogram) to orbit, cost per flight, life cycle cost, net present value/internal rate of return, and many others. This paper will examine the key considerations that influence stakeholders as they make space transportation investment decisions, including primary metrics by which various stakeholders measure financial goodness and other factors that significantly shape decisions to invest in reusable or expendable systems. It must be noted at the outset that reusable systems take many forms and perform different transportation functions including, but not limited to, ETO payload delivery. The discussion in this paper is limited to the economics of ETO transportation systems.

Webb, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Physics of the Cosmos and Cosmic Origins Technology Development Programs

NASA's Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) and Cosmic Origins (COR) Program Offices, established in 2011, reside at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The offices serve as the implementation arm for the Astrophysics Division at NASA Headquarters. We present an overview of the programs' technology development activities and technology investment portfolio, funded by NASA's Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program. We currently fund 19 technology advancements to enable future PCOS and COR missions to help answer the questions "How did our universe begin and evolve?" and "How did galaxies, stars, and planets come to be?" We discuss the process for addressing community-provided technology gaps and Technology Management Board (TMB)-vetted prioritization and investment recommendations that inform the SAT program. The process improves the transparency and relevance of our technology investments, provides the community a voice in the process, and promotes targeted external technology investments by defining needs and identifying customers. The programs' goal is to promote and support technology development needed to enable missions envisioned by the National Research Council's (NRC) "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics" (NWNH) Decadal Survey report [1] and the Astrophysics Implementation Plan (AIP) [2]. These include technology development for dark energy, gravitational waves, X-ray and inflation probe science, and a 4m-class UV/optical telescope to conduct imaging and spectroscopy studies, as a post-Hubble observatory with significantly improved sensitivity and capability.

Technology Management Board (TMB)↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prime Impact Fund (Final Technical Report)

PRIME Coalition Inc. constructed a first-of-its-kind impact investment fund comprised exclusively of charitable capital from grant and program-related investment-makers (private foundations, community foundations, corporate foundations, donor-advised funds, an d other corporate, family office, and individual donors). Prime Impact Fund was purpose-built to address the "innovation valley of death" in the energy sector, stepping into the capital gap with a new investment model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal electric-distribution-grid planning considering the demand-side flexibility of thermal building systems for a test case in Singapore

The planning of district-scale electric grids, i.e., distribution grids, has traditionally relied on finding the most cost-effective design such that they are able to supply the peak loads in a district. With the advent of electric demand side flexibility (DSF), there is the opportunity to reshape peak loads such that the investment cost of the electric grid decreases in exchange for a minor increase in the operation cost. This paper formulates an optimal planning approach for the electric grid at the district scale, which incorporates the DSF from thermal building systems, e.g., heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and aims at minimizing the investment cost for the grid along with the operation cost of the flexible loads. This is subjected to the fixed electricity demand and thermal comfort constraints of building occupants. To this end, linear models for the thermal comfort in the buildings and the power flow in electric grid are considered. The approach is tested on a district planning test case based in Singapore, where the results show up to 30.9 % reductions in investment cost and up to 3.7 % reduction in total annualized cost. Urban planning authorities, developers and utility companies can all benefit from the presented approach to make optimized investment decisions. For building operators, the results point to the need of adopting their control systems for DSF.

Troitzsch, Sebastian↗