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At least 289 records · Page 16

Temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon decomposition increased with mean carbon residence time: Field incubation and data assimilation

Abstract Temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon ( SOC ) decomposition is one of the major uncertainties in predicting climate‐carbon (C) cycle feedback. Results from previous studies are highly contradictory with old soil C decomposition being more, similarly, or less sensitive to temperature than decomposition of young fractions. The contradictory results are partly from difficulties in distinguishing old from young SOC and their changes over time in the experiments with or without isotopic techniques. In this study, we have conducted a long‐term field incubation experiment with deep soil collars (0–70 cm in depth, 10 cm in diameter of PVC tubes) for excluding root C input to examine apparent temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition under ambient and warming treatments from 2002 to 2008. The data from the experiment were infused into a multi‐pool soil C model to estimate intrinsic temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition and C residence times of three SOC fractions (i.e., active, slow, and passive) using a data assimilation ( DA ) technique. As active SOC with the short C residence time was progressively depleted in the deep soil collars under both ambient and warming treatments, the residences times of the whole SOC became longer over time. Concomitantly, the estimated apparent and intrinsic temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition also became gradually higher over time as more than 50% of active SOC was depleted. Thus, the temperature sensitivity of soil C decomposition in deep soil collars was positively correlated with the mean C residence times. However, the regression slope of the temperature sensitivity against the residence time was lower under the warming treatment than under ambient temperature, indicating that other processes also regulated temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition. These results indicate that old SOC decomposition is more sensitive to temperature than young components, making the old C more vulnerable to future warmer climate.

Zhou, Xuhui↗

Sensitivity to Thermonuclear Reaction Rates in Modeling the Abundance Anomalies of NGC 2419

Abundance anomalies in globular clusters provide strong evidence for multiple stellar populations within each cluster. These populations are usually interpreted as distinct generations, with the currently observed second-generation stars having formed in part from the ejecta of massive, first-generation “polluter” stars, giving rise to the anomalous abundance patterns. The precise nature of the polluters and their enrichment mechanism are still unclear. Even so, the chemical abundances measured in second-generation stars within the globular cluster NGC 2419 provide insight into this puzzling process. Previous work used Monte Carlo nuclear reaction network calculations to constrain the temperature–density conditions that could reproduce the observed abundances, thereby placing robust limits on the origins of the polluter material. The effect of individual reaction rates on these conditions has not been studied, however. Thus, we perform an exhaustive sensitivity study on the nuclear physics input to determine which reactions have the greatest impact on these predictions. We find that the {sup 30}Si(p,γ){sup 31}P, {sup 37}Ar(p,γ){sup 38}K, {sup 38}Ar(p,γ){sup 39}K, and {sup 39}K(p,γ){sup 40}Ca reactions are all critical in determining the temperature–density conditions, and ultimately, the origins of the polluter material. We conclude with recommendations for future experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Overview of Base Model in Parametric Studies Specific to Performance of U-Mo Plates

This paper provides an overview of the base model specifically developed to perform parametric sensitivity studies on the U-10Mo monolithic fuel system. U-Mo monolithic fuels are being considered for the conversion of test reactors into high-performance research reactors that operate using proliferation-resistant, low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuels. These plate-type fuels contain a high-density, low-enrichment fuel sandwiched between zirconium diffusion barriers and encapsulated in aluminum claddings. All U.S. high-performance research reactors have released the designs of their LEU monolithic fuel reactor cores. These designs include nearly 50 distinct fuel plate geometries with different operational parameters. Consequently, a single generic plate geometry representing all the extreme points in this design matrix is unrealistic. To evaluate the performance for various parameters, a set of sensitivity studies was performed. These studies considered various input parameters (i.e., geometric, operational, and material property-related). The results revealed valuable information about plate performance and the sensitivity of this performance to various modeling inputs. To establish a reference state for comparing these result, base model featuring representative irradiation conditions was developed. To capture in-reactor behavior accurately, incorporation of representative constitutive models capable of evolving properties with respect to temperature, irradiation time, and burnup was needed. The behavioral models considered burnup-dependent properties, swelling, creep, and degradation. This paper introduces the base model created for the parametric sensitivity studies. The detailed description of the procedure includes the model geometry, model discretization, thermo-mechanical coupling, material properties and behavioral models. This paper also provides selected results and assesses the performance of the base model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Core-collapse Supernova Sensitivity Machine (Final Technical Report)

Core-collapse supernovae are vital phenomena for understanding the extreme physics of stellar evolution, nuclear interactions, and the origins of elements in the universe. This project developed high-resolution 3D simulations and innovative 1D turbulence models to study the explosion mechanisms, yielding critical insights into the role of turbulence, magnetohydrodynamics, and neutrino physics. The outcomes include enhanced sensitivity analyses connecting nuclear physics inputs to observable supernovae characteristics, tools for the broader research community, and substantial contributions to the training of future scientists.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

Sobieszczanskisobieski, Jaroslaw↗

Sensitivity of complex, internally coupled systems

A method is presented for computing sensitivity derivatives with respect to independent (input) variables for complex, internally coupled systems, while avoiding the cost and inaccuracy of finite differencing performed on the entire system analysis. The method entails two alternative algorithms: the first is based on the classical implicit function theorem formulated on residuals of governing equations, and the second develops the system sensitivity equations in a new form using the partial (local) sensitivity derivatives of the output with respect to the input of each part of the system. A few application examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

A Multi-Function AAA Algorithm Applied to Frequency-Dependent Line Modeling: Preprint

We present a new multi-input rational approximation algorithm (MIAAA) and illustrate its advantages respect to the popular Vector Fitting (VF) algorithm using examples of approximations of admittance matrices discussed in a very recent paper and by the creators of VF. We show that not only MIAAA outperforms VF in terms of achieving better accuracy using a smaller number of poles, but also has no numerical issues to achieve convergence. In contrast to VF, MIAA is not sensitive to the location of input sample points and it does not require good estimates for the location of the desired approximation poles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Statistical and sensitivity analysis of failing rods in EPR LBLOCA

A statistical fuel failure analysis procedure has been developed, and is now applied in full scale to a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) scenario in EPR-type nuclear power plant. The goal is to statistically determine the number of failing fuel rods. It is also important to bring out the underlying causes for rod failures, and therefore a sensitivity analysis procedure for the preceding complex calculation chain is outlined and adopted. In order to produce a statistically reliable estimation on the number of failing rods, a large number of simulations are required. In the analysis, single rods are simulated with the coupled fuel performance - thermal hydraulics code FRAPTRAN-GENFLO. The statistically varied factors are divided into global and local by their range of influence. Transient thermal hydraulic and power history boundary conditions and model parameters are global and affect all the rods. Fuel rod manufacturing parameters and other rod position related factors are local and are related to a certain rod. The number of global scenarios is 59 as dictated by the Wilks' formula, and 1000 randomly sampled rods are simulated in each scenario. The thermal hydraulic and transient power boundary conditions for the fuel performance code are calculated with a statistical version of the system code APROS. The steady-state irradiation histories are simulated with FRAPCON, and the steady-state power histories used as boundary conditions for FRAPCON are obtained from SIMULATE calculations. Thus, a multistage calculation chain is required to consolidate the procedure. As an outcome, in the worst global scenario, 1.4% of the simulated rods failed. It can be concluded that the Finnish safety regulations, i.e. max. 10% of the rods allowed to fail, are met. In order to find out which input parameters have significance to the outcome of the analysis, a sensitivity analysis is done. At the moment, only the worst global scenario is considered but later on it is possible to include also the sensitivities of the global factors. Due to complexity of the existing data, first the relevant input parameters for the sensitivity analysis have to be specified. Data visualization with a cobweb graph is used for the screening. Then, selected sensitivity measures are calculated between the chosen input and output parameters. The sensitivity indices calculated are the Borgonovo's delta measure, the first order Sobol sensitivity index, and squared Pearson correlation coefficients. The first mentioned is a novelty in this context. As an outcome, the most relevant parameters with respect to the cladding integrity were determined to be the decay heat power during the transient, the thermal hydraulic conditions in the rod's location in the reactor, and the steady-state irradiation history of the rod as represented in this analysis by the rod burnup. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Early-time radiation flux symmetry optimization and its effect on gas-filled hohlraum ignition targets on the National Ignition Facility

Achieving ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is tied to our ability to control and minimize deviations from sphericity of the capsule implosion. Low-mode asymmetries of the hot spot result from the combined effect of radiation drive asymmetries throughout the laser pulse and initial roughness on the capsule surface. In this paper, we report on simulations and experiments designed to assess, measure, and correct the drive asymmetries produced by the early-time (≈first 2 ns or “picket”) period of the laser pulse. The drive asymmetry during the picket is commonly thought to introduce distortions in the hot-spot shape at ignition time. However, a more subtle effect not previously considered is that it also leads to an asymmetry in shock velocity and timing, thereby increasing the fuel adiabat and reducing the margin for ignition. It is shown via hydrodynamic simulations that minimizing this effect requires that the early-time asymmetry be kept below 7.5% in the second Legendre mode (P{sub 2}), thus keeping the loss of performance margin below ≈10% for a layered implosion. Asymmetries during the picket of the laser pulse are measured using the instantaneous self-emission of a high-Z re-emission sphere in place of an ignition capsule in a hohlraum with large azimuthal diagnostic windows. Three dimensional simulations using the code HYDRA (to capture the effect of non-azimuthal hohlraum features) coupled to a cross-beam energy transfer model [Michel et al., Phys. Plasmas 17, 056305 (2010)] are used to establish the surrogacy of the re-emit target and to assess the early-time drive symmetry. Calculations using this model exhibit the same sensitivity to variations in the relative input powers between the different cones of NIF beams as measured for the “Rev5” CH target [Haan et al., Phys Plasmas 18, 051001 (2011)] and reported by Dewald et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 235001 (2013)]. The same methodology applied to recently improved implosions using different hohlraum geometries and picket powers show good agreement with experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Investigating Response from Turbulent Boundary Layer Excitations on a Real Launch Vehicle using SEA

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) response has been fairly well anchored to test observations for Diffuse Acoustic Field (DAF) loading by others. Meanwhile, not many examples can be found in the literature anchoring the SEA vehicle panel response results to Turbulent Boundary Layer (TBL) fluctuating pressure excitations. This deficiency is especially true for supersonic trajectories such as those required by this nation s launch vehicles. Space Shuttle response and excitation data recorded from vehicle flight measurements during the development flights were used in a trial to assess the capability of the SEA tool to predict similar responses. Various known/measured inputs were used. These were supplemented with a range of assumed values in order to cover unknown parameters of the flight. This comparison is presented as "Part A" of the study. A secondary, but perhaps more important, objective is to provide more clarity concerning the accuracy and conservatism that can be expected from response estimates of TBL-excited vehicle models in SEA (Part B). What range of parameters must be included in such an analysis in order to land on the conservative side in response predictions? What is the sensitivity of changes in these input parameters on the results? The TBL fluid structure loading model used for this study is provided by the SEA module of the commercial code VA One.

Harrison, Phillip↗

Determining the profitability of energy storage over its life cycle using levelized cost of storage

Levelized cost of storage (LCOS) can be a simple, intuitive, and useful metric for determining whether a new energy storage plant would be profitable over its life cycle and to compare the cost of different energy storage technologies. However, researchers and industry decision makers still use conflicting definitions of LCOS. For example, some include charging cost, while others only include round trip efficiency (RTE) losses. Additionally, inputs to the existing formulations are not specific enough to generate repeatable results across studies, which reduces trust in the metric. To push for standardization in economic assessment of batteries and other energy storage devices, the authors review existing definitions of LCOS and identify the desired characteristics for a standard. They then propose a new definition and demonstrate that it fits these characteristics very well relative to other prominent options. Unit analysis is applied to this proposed definition to provide a deeper understanding of the equations and to demonstrate its effectiveness. Finally, the sensitivity of LCOS to different input parameters is investigated to help users understand how to compare analyses from literature to their own. The authors also provide a spreadsheet and a Python script to streamline adoption of the proposed definition.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Midplane neutral density profiles in the National Spherical Torus Experiment

Atomic and molecular density data in the outer midplane of NSTX [Ono et al., Nucl. Fusion 40, 557 (2000)] are inferred from tangential camera data via a forward modeling procedure using the DEGAS 2 Monte Carlo neutral transport code. The observed Balmer-β light emission data from 17 shots during the 2010 NSTX campaign display no obvious trends with discharge parameters such as the divertor Balmer-α emission level or edge deuterium ion density. Simulations of 12 time slices in 7 of these discharges produce molecular densities near the vacuum vessel wall of 2–8 × 10{sup 17 }m{sup −3} and atomic densities ranging from 1 to 7 × 10{sup 16 }m{sup −3}; neither has a clear correlation with other parameters. Validation of the technique, begun in an earlier publication, is continued with an assessment of the sensitivity of the simulated camera image and neutral densities to uncertainties in the data input to the model. The simulated camera image is sensitive to the plasma profiles and virtually nothing else. The neutral densities at the vessel wall depend most strongly on the spatial distribution of the source; simulations with a localized neutral source yield densities within a factor of two of the baseline, uniform source, case. The uncertainties in the neutral densities associated with other model inputs and assumptions are ≤50%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Gyrokinetic predictions of multiscale transport in a DIII-D ITER baseline discharge

New multiscale gyrokinetic simulations predict that electron energy transport in a DIII-D ITER baseline discharge with dominant electron heating and low input torque is multiscale in nature, with roughly equal amounts of the electron energy flux Q e coming from long wavelength ion-scale (k y ρ s < 1) and short wavelength electron-scale (k y ρ s > 1) fluctuations when the gyrokinetic results match independent power balance calculations. Corresponding conventional ion-scale simulations are able to match the power balance ion energy flux Q i , but systematically underpredict Q e when doing so. We observe significant nonlinear cross-scale couplings in the multiscale simulations, but the exact simulation predictions are found to be extremely sensitive to variations of model input parameters within experimental uncertainties. Most notably, depending upon the exact value of the equilibrium E x B shearing rate γ E x B used, either enhancement or suppression of the long-wavelength turbulence and transport levels in the multiscale simulations is observed relative to what is predicted by ion-scale simulations. And while the enhancement of the long wavelength fluctuations by inclusion of the short wavelength turbulence was previously observed in similar multiscale simulations of an Alcator C-Mod L-mode discharge, these new results show for the first time a complete suppression of long-wavelength turbulence in a multiscale simulation, for parameters at which conventional ion-scale simulation predicts small but finite levels of low-k turbulence and transport consistent with the power balance Q i . Though computational resource limitations prevent a fully rigorous validation assessment of these new results, they provide significant new evidence that electron energy transport in burning plasmas is likely to have a strong multiscale character, with significant nonlinear cross-scale couplings that must be fully understood to predict the performance of those plasmas with confidence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Parmetric Study of Crater-saturation Simulations

Computer models of cratered surfaces often use inputs of uncertain nature and importance. This work evaluates the sensitivity of the resulting crater-saturation estimates to the input parameters, principally applicable to the study of craters upward from 8km diameter. In order of decreasing importance, crater saturation simulations are found to be sensitive to: (1) the dynamic range of crater diameters used; (2) the effectiveness of ejecta-blanket obliteration assumed; and (3) the number of points taken to describe the crater rim. The size of the largest crater in proportion to the size of the simulated surface has no effect on the results when the edges of the simulated surface are correctly treated and craters are counted by the fraction of the crater within the simulated area. A similar procedure is recommended when gathering crater size-density data from images.

Woronow, A.↗

A Monte Carlo study of parameters affecting computer simulations of crater saturation density

Computer models of cratered surfaces often use inputs of uncertain nature and importance. This work evaluates the sensitivity of the resulting crater-saturation estimates to the input parameters, principally applicable to the study of craters upward from 8 km diameter. In order of decreasing importance, crater saturation simulations are found to be sensitive to: (1) the dynamic range of crater diameters used, (2) the effectiveness of ejecta-blanket obliteration assumed, and (3) the number of points taken to describe the crater rim. The size of the largest crater in proportion to the size of the simulated surface has no effect on the results when the edges of the simulated surface are correctly treated and craters are not counted simply by integers. Craters should be counted by their fractions lying within the simulated area. A similar procedure is recommended when gathering crater size-density data from images.

Woronow, A.↗

Neutronic Design and Analysis of the Holos-Quad Concept

HolosGen, LLC is proposing a highly innovative micro-reactor concept targeting both civilian and military applications. It consists of an advanced helium-cooled gas reactor using a turbojet-type turbine and compressor to achieve a highly condensed reactor that fits into a commercial ISO container. The Holos-Quad concept being considered for civilian applications will generate 22MWt, using four Subcritical Power Modules (SPMs) that fit into one 40-foot ISO container. It is a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concept using TRISO fuel distributed in graphite hexagonal blocks, cooled with helium gas at 7MPa and a high outlet temperature. In FY2019, HolosGen, LLC received an ARPA-E MEITNER grant to team up with the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) design team to demonstrate the feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept in terms of neutronics. In particular, the evaluation study of the Holos design features and alternative options for reactivity control was considered. Through these tasks, the ANL design team has been working on demonstrating the feasibility of the Holos-Quad concept in terms of neutronics to help advance the core design of the Holos-Quad. A rigorous design approach was employed for the Holos-Quad in order to ensure that the input space is fully investigated, and that the best solutions are considered. The first step of this approach consisted of properly defining the Holos-Quad design problem by identifying the competitive design objectives: its economic performance is maximized with longer lifetime and its transportability to remote locations is maximized with reduced weight. The design problem also required to identify the operational constraints (in terms of thermal hydraulics, reactivity feedback and shutdown margins) and the input parameters that could be varied. In the second step, a sensitivity analysis was performed to enable preliminary investigation of the input space to identify the correlations among input and output variables. It allowed, for instance, to find input parameters that have relatively poor impact on the core performance and that could be removed from the optimization problem to accelerate its convergence. This sensitivity analysis showed that the design problem defined is highly constrained since only 117 solutions out of 1,000 simulated cores met all the design constraints. The design optimization was performed in the third step employing a genetic algorithm to effectively explore this highly constrained input space and find global optimal solutions. More than 2,500 cores were fully evaluated to converge to a Pareto Frontier of optimum solutions providing best compromise between the life-time target and the total core weight, as shown in Figure 1. The main benefit of this approach was to reduce the human effort and to be able to automatically re-run the optimization problem when changing the design problem. The multi-objective optimization identified various core solutions that would be optimum solutions for different types of applications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The Influence of PV Module Materials and Design on Solder Joint Thermal Fatigue Durability

Finite element model (FEM) simulations have been performed to elucidate the effect of flat plate photovoltaic (PV) module materials and design on PbSn eutectic solder joint thermal fatigue durability. The statistical method of Latin Hypercube sampling was employed to investigate the sensitivity of simulated damage to each input variable. Variables of laminate material properties and their thicknesses were investigated. Using analysis of variance, we determined that the rate of solder fatigue was most sensitive to solder layer thickness, with copper ribbon and silicon thickness being the next two most sensitive variables. By simulating both accelerated thermal cycles (ATCs) and PV cell temperature histories through two characteristic days of service, we determined that the acceleration factor between the ATC and outdoor service was independent of the variables sampled in this study. This result implies that an ATC test will represent a similar time of outdoor exposure for a wide range of module designs. This is an encouraging result for the standard ATC that must be universally applied across all modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗