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NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

human error↗

NASA NTRS2003

Real-time spatio-temporal coherence estimation for autonomous mode identification and invariance tracking

A general method of anomaly detection from time-correlated sensor data is disclosed. Multiple time-correlated signals are received. Their cross-signal behavior is compared against a fixed library of invariants. The library is constructed during a training process, which is itself data-driven using the same time-correlated signals. The method is applicable to a broad class of problems and is designed to respond to any departure from normal operation, including faults or events that lie outside the training envelope.

James, Mark L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

WSR-88D Cell Trends

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modular and Stochastic Approaches to Molecular Pathway Models of ATM, TGF beta, and WNT Signaling

Deterministic pathway models that describe the biochemical interactions of a group of related proteins, their complexes, activation through kinase, etc. are often the basis for many systems biology models. Low dose radiation effects present a unique set of challenges to these models including the importance of stochastic effects due to the nature of radiation tracks and small number of molecules activated, and the search for infrequent events that contribute to cancer risks. We have been studying models of the ATM, TGF -Smad and WNT signaling pathways with the goal of applying pathway models to the investigation of low dose radiation cancer risks. Modeling challenges include introduction of stochastic models of radiation tracks, their relationships to more than one substrate species that perturb pathways, and the identification of a representative set of enzymes that act on the dominant substrates. Because several pathways are activated concurrently by radiation the development of modular pathway approach is of interest.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 - 2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties

In a previous study (Cane and Richardson, J. Geophys. Res. l08(A4), SSH6-1, we investigated the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996 - 2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23, and provided a "comprehensive" catalog of these events. In this paper, we present a revised and updated catalog of the approx. =300 near-Earth ICMEs in 1996-2009, encompassing the complete cycle 23, and summarize their basic properties and geomagnetic effects. In particular, solar wind .. composition and charge state observations are now considered when identifying the ICMEs. In general, these additional data confirm the earlier identifications based predominantly on other solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters. However, the boundaries of ICME-like plasma based on charge state/composition data may deviate significantly from those based on conventional plasma/magnetic field parameters. Furthermore, the much studied "magnetic clouds", with flux-rope-like magnetic field configurations, may form just a substructure of the total ICME interval.

Richardson, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The explosive transient camera (ETC) - An instrument for identification of gamma ray burst optical counterparts

The ETC is a wide-field (3-steradian) electronic camera array which can detect coincident optical flashes with durations of 0.1 to 100 sec. Each array element is a 20 x 30 deg FOV, cooled CCD detector. An optical transient (possibly associated with a gamma ray burst) as faint as B = +11 (1 sec duration) can be detected with an S/N of not less than 20, and its position determined to an accuracy of + or - 10 arcsec. Candidate events 1000 times fainter than the archived event (plate taken in 1928) reported for the November 19, 1978 gamma ray burst by Schaefer (1981) should be detectable in real time. A prototype camera was tested in April 1982 to establish sky background levels and spurious event rejection schemes; a 1/2-ster test version of the ETC was planned for operation in early 1984; expansion to the full 3-ster complement of 16 detectors at each of two sites was planned for the 1984-1985 period.

Ricker, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Identification of turbulence structures above a forest canopy using a wavelet transform

The wavelet transform is used to identify scales of large coherent structures present in atmospheric turbulence above the subarctic forest at Schefferville. Individual coherent structures contributing to much of the exchange between the forest and the atmosphere are depicted in terms of both scale and location using contour diagrams of wavelet transform coefficients. Three typical case studies of turbulence and flux observations were selected to examine the physical characteristics of these flux-filled events and their evolution with distance away from the forest canopy. A wavelet transform spectral technique is applied to vertical velocity, temperature, and turbulent heat flux data observed over the sparse coniferous forest to extract the relative importance of each scale present in those data series. The scale of turbulence structures in relation with their characteristic spacing is discussed.

Turner, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Type IA Supernovae

Spectral calculations show that a model based on the thermonuclear explosion of a degenerate carbon/oxygen white dwarf provides excellent agreement with observations of Type Ia supernovae. Identification of suitable evolutionary progenitors remains a severe problem. General problems with estimation of supernova rates are outlined and the origin of Type Ia supernovae from double degenerate systems are discussed in the context of new rates of explosion per H band luminosity, the lack of observed candidates, and the likely presence of H in the vicinity of some SN Ia events. Re-examination of the problems of triggering Type Ia by accretion of hydrogen from a companion shows that there may be an avenue involving cataclysmic variables, especially if extreme hibernation occurs. Novae may channel accreting white dwarfs to a unique locus in accretion rate/mass space. Systems that undergo secular evolution to higher mass transfer rates could lead to just the conditions necessary for a Type Ia explosion. Tests involving fluorescence or absorption in a surrounding circumstellar medium and the detection of hydrogen stripped from a companion, which should appear at low velocity inside the white dwarf ejecta, are suggested. Possible observational confirmation of the former is described.

Wheeler, J. Craig↗

NASA NTRS1993

A DTA/GC for the in Situ Identification of the Martian Surface Material

The composition and mineralogy of the Martian surface material remain largely unknown. To determine its composition and mineralogy, several techniques are being considered for in situ analyses of the Martian surface material during missions to Mars. We have successfully developed, constructed, and tested a laboratory DTA/GC. The DTA is a Dupont model 1600 high temperature DTA coupled with a GC equipped with a MID detector. The system is operated by a Sun Sparc 11 workstation. When gas evolves during a thermal chemical event, it is shunted into the GC and the temperature is recorded in association with the specific thermal event. We have used this laboratory instrument to define experimental criteria necessary for determining the composition and mineralogy of the Martian surface in situ (e.g., heating of sample to 1100 C to distinguish clays). Our studies indicate that DTA/GC will provide a broad spectrum of mineralogical and evolved gas data pertinent to exobiology, geochemistry, and geology.

Mancinelli, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

On-Orbit Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Star Tracker Warm Pixel Analysis

This paper describes the process of identification and analysis of warm pixels in two autonomous star trackers on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. A brief description of the mission orbit and attitude regimes is discussed and pertinent star tracker hardware specifications are given. Warm pixels are defined and the Quality Index parameter is introduced, which can be explained qualitatively as a manifestation of a possible warm pixel event. A description of the algorithm used to identify warm pixel candidates is given. Finally, analysis of dumps of on-orbit star tracker charge coupled devices (CCD) images is presented and an operational plan going forward is discussed. SDO, launched on February 11, 2010, is operated from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). SDO is in a geosynchronous orbit with a 28.5 inclination. The nominal mission attitude points the spacecraft X-axis at the Sun, with the spacecraft Z-axis roughly aligned with the Solar North Pole. The spacecraft Y-axis completes the triad. In attitude, SDO moves approximately 0.04 per hour, mostly about the spacecraft Z-axis. The SDO star trackers, manufactured by Galileo Avionica, project the images of stars in their 16.4deg x 16.4deg fields-of-view onto CCD detectors consisting of 512 x 512 pixels. The trackers autonomously identify the star patterns and provide an attitude estimate. Each unit is able to track up to 9 stars. Additionally, each tracker calculates a parameter called the Quality Index, which is a measure of the quality of the attitude solution. Each pixel in the CCD measures the intensity of light and a warns pixel is defined as having a measurement consistently and significantly higher than the mean background intensity level. A warns pixel should also have lower intensity than a pixel containing a star image and will not move across the field of view as the attitude changes (as would a dim star image). It should be noted that the maximum error introduced in the star tracker attitude solution during suspected warm pixel corruptions is within the specified 36 attitude error budget requirement of [35, 70, 70] arcseconds. Thus, the star trackers provided attitude accuracy within the specification for SDO. The star tracker images are intentionally defocused so each star image is detected in more than one CCD pixel. The position of each star is calculated as an intensity-weighted average of the illuminated pixels. The exact method of finding the positions is proprietary to the tracker manufacturer. When a warm pixel happens to be in the vicinity of a star, it can corrupt the calculation of the position of that particular star, thereby corrupting the estimate of the attitude.

Felikson, Denis↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Machine Learning-Based Approach to Time-Series Wave Identification in the Solar Wind

The Wind spacecraft has yielded several decades of high-resolution magnetic field data, a large fraction of which displays small-scale structures. In particular, the solar wind is full of wavelike fluctuations that appear in both the field magnitude and its components. The nature of these fluctuations can be tied to the properties of other structures in the solar wind, such as shocks, that have implications for the time evolution of the solar wind. As such, having a large collection of wave events would facilitate further study of the effects that these fluctuations have on solar wind evolution. Given the large volume of magnetic field data available, machine learning is the most practical approach to classifying the myriad small-scale structures observed. To this end, a subset of Wind data is labeled and used as a training set for a multi-branch 1D convolutional neural network aimed at classifying circularly polarized wave modes. Using this algorithm, a preliminary statistical study of one year of data is performed, yielding about 300,000 wave intervals out of about 5,000,000 solar wind intervals. The wave intervals come about more often in the fast solar wind and at higher temperatures, and the number of waves per day is highly periodic. This machine learning-based approach to wave detection has the potential to be a powerful, inexpensive way to catalog waves throughout decades of spacecraft data.

Samuel Fordin↗

NASA NTRS1988

A telescope for high energy gamma-ray measurements in the Space Station era

This paper describes the concept of a large gamma-ray imaging telescope system (GRITS) which will provide sufficient sensitivity for the identification of faint objects to be catalogued by the Gamma-Ray Observatory. The technique used in this telescope for the detection of gamma rays is based on the conversion of the incident gamma ray into an electron-positron pair which subsequently produces Cherenkov radiation. The gamma ray is identified by a unique signature based on a sequence of time-delayed coincidence events. The GRITS telescope will use the extended Shuttle external tank, ET, as the pressure vessel necessary for the gas-Cherenkov process. Astronauts from the Shuttle or the Space Station performing EVA will convert ET to an autonomous spacecraft and install the telescope inside the ET.

Koch, David G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Development and Evaluation of Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Systems

The research is concerned with developing a new approach to enhancing fault tolerance of flight control systems. The original motivation for fault-tolerant control comes from the need for safe operation of control elements (e.g. actuators) in the event of hardware failures in high reliability systems. One such example is modem space vehicle subjected to actuator/sensor impairments. A major task in flight control is to revise the control policy to balance impairment detectability and to achieve sufficient robustness. This involves careful selection of types and parameters of the controllers and the impairment detecting filters used. It also involves a decision, upon the identification of some failures, on whether and how a control reconfiguration should take place in order to maintain a certain system performance level. In this project new flight dynamic model under uncertain flight conditions is considered, in which the effects of both ramp and jump faults are reflected. Stabilization algorithms based on neural network and adaptive method are derived. The control algorithms are shown to be effective in dealing with uncertain dynamics due to external disturbances and unpredictable faults. The overall strategy is easy to set up and the computation involved is much less as compared with other strategies. Computer simulation software is developed. A serious of simulation studies have been conducted with varying flight conditions.

Song, Yong D.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Observations of energetic electrons /E no less than about 200 keV/ in the earth's magnetotail - Plasma sheet and fireball observations

An earlier paper by the authors (1976) has reported on energetic electron anisotropies observed in conjunction with the acceleration regions identified by Frank et al., (1976). The present paper gives more detailed analyses of observations in the distant plasma sheet, including specific features of intensities, energy spectra, and pitch angle distributions of the very energetic electrons associated with intense plasma particle events, with energies ranging between 50 eV and 45 keV, detected with an electron/isotope spectrometer aboard the earth-orbiting spacecraft Imp 8. Two domains are considered: the plasma sheet and the regions near and within the localized magnetotail acceleration regions known as the fireball regions. The instrumentation used offered a number of observational advantages over many previous studies, including inherently low background, large geometric factors, excellent species identification, good angular distribution measurement capability, and availability of high resolution of differential intensities.

Baker, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Low-frequency fluctuations in the magnetosheath near the magnetopause

There are four low-frequency modes which may propagate in a high-beta nearly bi-Maxwellian plasma. These are the magnetosonic, Alfven, ion acoustic, and mirror modes. This manuscript defines a procedure based on linear Vlasov theory for the unique identification of these modes by use of transport ratios, dimensionless ratios of the fluctuating field and plasma quantities. A single parameter, the mode deviation is calculated using the plasma and magnetic field data gathered by the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/Ion Release Module (AMPTE/IRM) spacecraft to identify the modes observed in the terrestial magnetosheath near the magnetopause. As well as determining the mode which best describes the observed fluctuations, it gives us a measure of whether or not the resulting identification is unique. Using 17 time periods temporally close to a magnetopause crossing, and confining our study to the frequency range from 0.01 to 0.04 Hz, we find that the only clearly identified mode in this frequency range is the mirror mode. Most commonly, the quasi-perpendicular mirror mode (with wave vector k roughly perpendicular to the background magnetic field B(sub zero) is observed. In two events the quasi-parallel mirror mode k parallel B(sub zero) was identified.

Denton, Richard E.↗