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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub-Region of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic During 1979–2019

Observations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub-region of the U.S. mid-Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. Herein, this study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi-decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi-decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large-scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi-decadal relationships between precipitation and large-scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter-annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid-Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Thunderstorms With the Greatest Lightning Densities on Earth

The most intense thunderstorms on Earth were surveyed using the comprehensive meteorological instrumentation on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Expansive land-based Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) were consistently identified among the Earth's most intense thunderstorms, with their organization into many convective cells spanning a large areal extent permitting exceptional overall flash rates for these storms. In this study, we identify a new class of extreme thunderstorm. Lightning-dense thunderstorms are relatively compact convective storms whose concentrated lightning activity hinders our ability to accurately measure their flash rates. The top storms have a flash rate of one flash spanning many seconds, as there is insufficient separation to distinguish one flash from another. While any particularly active convective cell could be capable of producing high lightning densities, we find that thunderstorms with the greatest lightning densities on Earth are found in maritime thunderstorms that have not been appreciated in prior work due to the inaccurate flash rate measurements. These storms that are mostly found throughout the Gulf of Mexico and east of South Africa (among other coastal and oceanic regions) have measured TRMM proxies for convective intensity that rival the top MCS thunderstorms, but their horizontal and vertical dimensions are small by comparison. Thus, the necessary microphysical elements for electrification processes are more highly concentrated, enabling the observed extreme lightning densities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid's resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build and utilize a data set of location, physical characteristics, and age of transmission structures for nine counties in the Florida Panhandle. These component characteristics were then simulated for failure under a variety of scenarios using fragility curves. Eight hurricanes were modeled using Hazus from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the resulting impact to the network was assessed. The network was generated using the transmission lines and towers, showing increasing impacts to network efficiency with larger storms. Although modern transmission structures are built under the more stringent extreme wind loading construction standards, the prevalence of older, wooden transmission structures throughout the region poses a substantial risk to reliable electricity transmission during tropical cyclone events from the Gulf of Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Viscoplastic Behavior of Natural Hydrate‐Bearing Sandy‐Silts Under Uniaxial Strain Compression ( K 0 Loading)

Abstract The in‐situ stress state and geomechanical properties of hydrate‐bearing sediments impact hydrate formation and gas production strategies. We explore the uniaxial strain compression and stress evolution of natural hydrate‐bearing sandy‐silts from Green Canyon Block 955 in the deep‐water Gulf of Mexico. We performed constant rate of strain uniaxial strain experiments, interrupted by periods where we held the axial stress constant, to explore the vertical deformation and the evolution of the ratio of lateral to axial effective stress ( K 0 ) with time. The hydrate‐bearing sandy‐silt is stiffer and has a larger K 0 than the equivalent hydrate‐free sediment upon loading. During stress holds, the void ratio decreases sigmoidally with the log of time, and K 0 converges to isotropic conditions. We interpret that during loading, the hydrate bears the load and deforms. With time, the hydrate redistributes the load and K 0 increases. We used a viscoelastic model to describe the behavior. The model accurately captures deformation and K 0 trends but does not reproduce all the complex interactions of the hydrate with the porous skeleton. We anticipate that viscous effects within hydrate sediments will impact reservoir compression and stresses during production (hours to days), result in isotropic stress state over geological timescales, and explain the creeping movement in submarine landslides.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatially distributed atmospheric boundary layer properties in Houston – A value-added observational dataset

Abstract In 2022, Houston, TX became a nexus for field campaigns aiming to further our understanding of the feedbacks between convective clouds, aerosols and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) properties. Houston’s proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay motivated the collection of spatially distributed observations to disentangle coastal and urban processes. This paper presents a value-added ABL dataset derived from observations collected by eight research teams over 46 days between 2 June - 18 September 2022. The dataset spans 14 sites distributed within a ~80-km radius around Houston. Measurements from three types of instruments are analyzed to objectively provide estimates of nine ABL parameters, both thermodynamic (potential temperature, and relative humidity profiles and thermodynamic ABL depth) and dynamic (horizontal wind speed and direction, mean vertical velocity, updraft and downdraft speed profiles, and dynamical ABL depth). Contextual information about cloud occurrence is also provided. The dataset is prepared on a uniform time-height grid of 1 h and 30 m resolution to facilitate its use as a benchmark for forthcoming numerical simulations and the fundamental study of atmospheric processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pore-scale observations of natural hydrate-bearing sediments via pressure core sub-coring and micro-CT scanning

Abstract Both intra-pore hydrate morphology and inter-pore hydrate distribution influence the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments, yet there has been no pore-scale observations of hydrate habit under pressure in preserved pressure core samples so far. We present for the first time a pore-scale micro-CT study of natural hydrate-bearing cores that were acquired from Green Canyon Block 955 in UT-GOM2-1 Expedition and preserved within hydrate pressure–temperature stability conditions throughout sub-sampling and imaging processes. Measured hydrate saturation in the sub-samples, taken from units expected to have in-situ saturation of 80% or more, ranges from 3 ± 1% to 56 ± 11% as interpreted from micro-CT images. Pore-scale observations of gas hydrate in the sub-samples suggest that hydrate in silty sediments at the Gulf of Mexico is pore-invasive rather than particle displacive, and hydrate particles in these natural water-saturated samples are pore-filling with no evidence of grain-coating. Hydrate can form a connected 3D network and provide mechanical support for the sediments even without cementation. The technical breakthrough to directly visualize particle-level hydrate pore habits in natural sediments reported here sheds light on future investigations of pressure- and temperature-sensitive processes including hydrate-bearing sediments, dissolved gases, and other biochemical processes in the deep-sea environment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive transport modeling of organic carbon degradation in marine methane hydrate systems

Abstract Natural methane hydrate has often been observed in sand layers that contain no particulate organic carbon (POC), but are surrounded by organic-rich, fine-grained marine muds. In this paper, we develop a reactive transport model (RTM) of a microbially-mediated set of POC degradation reactions, including hydrolysis of POC driven by extracellular enzymes, fermentation of the resulting high-molecular weight dissolved organic carbon (HMW-DOC), and methanogenesis that consumes low-molecular weight dissolved organic carbon (LMW-DOC). These processes are mediated by two groups of microbes, fermenters and methanogens that are heterogeneously distributed in different lithologies, with the largest numbers of microbes in the large pores of coarse-grained layers. We find that the RTM can reproduce methane hydrate occurrences observed in two different geological environments, at Walker Ridge Site 313-H (Gulf of Mexico) and IODP Site U1325 (Cascadia Margin). We also find that microbes can degrade POC even if they are physically separated, as extracellular enzymes and DOC can diffuse away from where they are produced by microbes. Microbial activity is highest at relatively early times after burial at shallow depths and near lithological boundaries, where concentration gradients transport solutes to intervals that contain the most microbes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ten years of Gulf Coast ecosystem restoration projects since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

A decade since coastal restoration began across U.S. Gulf of Mexico states after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, it is timely to examine its collective effects relative to intended outcomes. Through 2021, allocated funds for 570 projects by state, federal, non-profit, and other entities approached half the unprecedented recovery settlements. The need for synthesis of restoration results to inform further expenditures is urgent. Yet, unlike the western and eastern U.S. coasts, this region lacks an entity charged with conducting environmental synthesis. Synthesis of the cumulative effects of large-scale restoration will encompass three challenging components: (1) understanding and accounting for synergistic and antagonistic effects; (2) incorporating long-term environmental trends and acute events; and (3) addressing the relative scale of restoration effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A very high energy hadron collider on the Moon

Abstract The long-term prospect of building a hadron collider around the circumference of a great circle of the Moon is sketched. A circular collider on the Moon (CCM) of ∼11 000 km in circumference could reach a proton–proton center-of-mass collision energy of 14 PeV—a thousand times higher than the Large Hadron Collider at CERN—optimistically assuming a dipole magnetic field of 20 T. Several aspects of such a project are presented, including siting, construction, availability of necessary materials on the Moon, and powering, as well as a discussion of future studies and further information needed to determine the more concrete feasibility of each. Machine parameters and vacuum requirements are explored, and an injection scheme is delineated. Other unknowns are set down. Due to the strong interest from multiple organizations in establishing a permanent Moon presence, a CCM could be the (next-to-) next-to-next-generation discovery machine for high-energy particle physics and a natural successor to next-generation machines, such as the proposed future circular collider at CERN or a super proton–proton collider in China, and other future machines, such as a collider in the Sea, in the Gulf of Mexico. A CCM would serve as an important stepping stone toward a Planck-scale collider sited in our Solar System.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud condensation nuclei characteristics at the Southern Great Plains site: role of particle size distribution and aerosol hygroscopicity

The activation ability of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is crucial in climate and hydrological cycle studies, but their properties are not well known. We investigated the long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol properties, CCN concentrations (N CCN ) at supersaturation (SS = 0.1%–1.0%), and hygroscopicity at the Department of Energy's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to illustrate the dependence of N CCN on aerosol properties and transport pathways. Cluster analysis was applied to the back trajectories of air masses to investigate their respective source regions. The results showed that aged biomass burning aerosols from Central America were characterized by higher accumulation mode particles (N accu ; median value 805 cm -3 ) and relatively high aerosol hygroscopicity (κ; median value ~0.25) values that result in the higher CCN activation and relatively high N CCN (median value 258–1578 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%). Aerosols from the Gulf of Mexico were characterized by higher N accu (~35%), and N CCN (230–1721 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with the lowest κ (~0.17). In contrast, relatively high nucleation mode particles (N nucl ; ~20%) and low N CCN (128–1553 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with higher κ (~0.30) values were observed on the aerosols associated with a westerly wind. The results indicate particle size as the most critical factor influencing the ability of aerosols to activate, whereas the effect of chemical composition was secondary. Our CCN closure analysis suggests that chemical composition and mixing state information are more crucial at lower SS, whereas at higher SS, most particles become activated regardless of their chemical composition and size. This study affirms that soluble organic fraction information is required at higher SS for better N CCN prediction, but both the soluble organics fraction and mixing state are vital to reduce the N CCN prediction uncertainty at lower SS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Furthermore, our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial Communities across Global Marine Basins Show Important Compositional Similarities by Depth

The environmental surveys following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) spill identified a variety of hydrocarbon-degrading microorganisms, and laboratory studies with field-collected water samples then demonstrated faster-than-expected hydrocarbon biodegradation rates at 5°C. Knowledge about microbial community composition, diversity, and functional metabolic capabilities aids in understanding and predicting petroleum biodegradation by microbial communities in situ and is therefore an important component of the petroleum spill response decision-making process. This study investigates the taxonomic composition of microbial communities in six different global basins where petroleum and gas activities occur. Shallow-water communities were strikingly similar across basins, while deep-water communities tended to show subclusters by basin, with communities from the epipelagic, mesopelagic, and bathypelagic zones sometimes appearing within the same cluster. Microbial taxa that were enriched in the water column in the Gulf of Mexico following the DWH spill were found across marine basins. Several hydrocarbon-degrading genera (e.g., Actinobacteria, Pseudomonas, and Rhodobacteriacea) were common across all basins. Other genera such as Pseudoalteromonas and Oleibacter were highly enriched in specific basins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dating submarine landslides using the transient response of gas hydrate stability

Abstract Submarine landslides are prevalent on the modern-day seafloor, yet an elusive problem is constraining the timing of past slope failure. We present a novel age-dating technique based on perturbations to underlying gas hydrate stability caused by slide-impacted seafloor changes. Using three-dimensional (3-D) seismic data, we mapped an irregular bottom simulating reflection (BSR) underneath a submarine landslide in the Orca Basin, Gulf of Mexico. The irregular BSR mimics the pre-slide seafloor geometry rather than the modern bathymetry. Therefore, we suggest that the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is still adjusting to the post-slide sediment temperature. We applied transient conductive heat-flow modeling to constrain the response of the GHSZ to the slope failure, which yielded a most likely age of ca. 8 ka, demonstrating that gas hydrate can respond to landslides even on multimillennial time scales. We further provide a generalized analytical solution that can be used to remotely date submarine slides in the absence of traditional dating techniques.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Succession of Cloud, Precipitation, Aerosol and Air Quality Field Experiments in the Coastal Urban Environment

The interactions and feedbacks among clouds, aerosols, pollutants, and the thermodynamic and kinematic environment remains an area of active research with important implications for our understanding of climate, weather and air quality. These linkages are further complicated in coastal and urban environments where local circulations and anthropogenic influences impact each of these components and their interactions. Within this context, fundamental questions regarding the lifecycle of convective clouds, aerosols and pollutants have brought together a diverse, integrated, and interagency collaboration of scientists to collect and analyze measurements, in the Houston, Texas, area, from the summer of 2021 through the summer of 2022, with subsequent modeling studies to address these important research objectives. Herein, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility and Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program, the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Physical and Dynamic Meteorology Program, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Tropospheric Composition Research and Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Programs and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) are collaborating on a joint set of field campaigns to study the interactions of cloud, aerosol, and pollutants within the coastal, urban environment. In the Houston area, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the associated sea breeze circulation generates numerous isolated convective cells, particularly in the summer months, that interact with a variety of urban and industrial emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Hailstone Temporal Variability and Contributing Factors over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗