Distortion of the magnetosphere during a magnetic storm on September 30, 1961.
Magnetospheric distortion during geomagnetic storm on September 30, 1961, examining Explorer XII satellite evidence on ring currents
SATELLITE MEASUREMENT↗
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Comparison of interplanetary type 2 radio burst observations by ISEE-3, Ulysses, and WIND with applications to space weather prediction
Interplanetary (IP) type 2 radio bursts are produced by IP shocks driven by solar ejecta, presumably involving shock acceleration of electrons that leads to radio emission. These radio bursts, which can be detected remotely by a sensitive spacecraft radio receiver, provide a method of tracking the leading edge of solar ejecta moving outward from the sun. Consequently, observations of these bursts sometimes provide advance warning of one or more days prior to the onset of geomagnetic activity induced by the solar ejecta. A robust lower limit on the fraction of intense geomagnetic storms, that are preceded by IP type 2 bursts, is provided. It is shown that 41 percent of the geomagnetic storms occurring during the interval September 1978 to February 1983 were preceded by type 2 events in this catalog, and reasons why the fraction is not larger are addressed. Differences in the observing capabilities of the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3, Ulysses, and WIND, to explain why each of these similar spacecraft radio investigations provides a different perspective of IP type 2 emissions are reviewed.
MacDowall, R. J.↗
Acceleration of Magnetospheric Relativistic Electrons by Ultra-Low Frequency Waves: A Comparison between Two Cases Observed by Cluster and LANL Satellites
Understanding the origin and acceleration of magnetospheric relativistic electrons (MREs) in the Earth's radiation belt during geomagnetic storms is an important subject and yet one of outstanding questions in space physics. It has been statistically suggested that during geomagnetic storms, ultra-low-frequency (ULF) Pc-5 wave activities in the magnetosphere are correlated with order of magnitude increase of MRE fluxes in the outer radiation belt. Yet, physical and observational understandings of resonant interactions between ULF waves and MREs remain minimum. In this paper, we show two events during storms on September 25, 2001 and November 25, 2001, the solar wind speeds in both cases were > 500 km/s while Cluster observations indicate presence of strong ULF waves in the magnetosphere at noon and dusk, respectively, during a approx. 3-hour period. MRE observations by the Los Alamos (LANL) spacecraft show a quadrupling of 1.1-1.5 MeV electron fluxes in the September 25, 2001 event, but only a negligible increase in the November 2.5, 2001 event. We present a detailed comparison between these two events. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of MRE acceleration during the September 25, 2001 event can be attributed to the compressional wave mode with strong ULF wave activities and the physical origin of MRE acceleration depends more on the distribution of toroidal and poloidal ULF waves in the outer radiation belt.
Shao, X.↗
PROPAGATION OF THE 2014 JANUARY 7 CME AND RESULTING GEOMAGNETIC NON-EVENT
On 2014 January 7 an X1.2 flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) with a radial speed ≈2500 km s{sup −1} was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth (≈36 hr) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of ≈49 hr and a K{sub P} geomagnetic index of only 3−. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)–ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We explore a series of simulations to isolate the effects of the background solar wind solution, CME shape, tilt, location, size, and speed, and the results are compared with observed in situ arrivals at Venus, Earth, and Mars. Our results show that a tilted ellipsoid CME shape improves the initial real-time prediction to better reflect the observed in situ signatures and the geomagnetic storm strength. CME parameters from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model used as input to WSA–ENLIL+Cone, along with a tilted ellipsoid cloud shape, improve the arrival-time error by 14.5, 18.7, 23.4 hr for Venus, Earth, and Mars respectively. These results highlight that CME orientation and directionality with respect to observatories play an important role in understanding the propagation of this CME, and for forecasting other glancing CME arrivals. This study also demonstrates the importance of three-dimensional CME fitting made possible by multiple viewpoint imaging.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
An estimate of the maximum speed of the solar wind, 1938-1989
In an effort to estimate the highest flow velocity that the solar wind has exhibited at earth during the past 50 years, geomagnetic storms that occurred from 1938 to 1989 were surveyed, and the storms that were preceded by a major proton flare were selected. For each identified flare-storm pair, the average speed ('transit speed') of the associated interplanetary shock from the interval between the flare onset and the sudden commencement of the geomagnetic storm was calculated. In each case, the maximum solar wind flow speed was inferred from an empirical relationship (derived for a sample of recent events) between the shock transit speed and the peak flow velocity of the associated transient stream, obtaining a distribution of maximum solar wind speeds, which presumably corresponds to a sample of the most energetic events of this 50-yr period. Results show no evidence for bulk flow velocities greater than the about 2000 km/sec value deduced by Zastenker et al. (1978) and Grunwaldt (1975) for the August 4, 1972 event.
Cliver, E. W.↗
The aurora as a source of planetary-scale waves in the middle atmosphere
Photographs of global-scale auroral forms taken by scanning radiometers onboard U.S. Air Force weather satellites in 1972 show that auroral bands exhibit well-organized wave motion with typical zonal wave number of 5 or so. The scale size of these waves is in agreement with that of well-organized neutral wind fields measured by the 1967-50B satellite in the 150- to 220-km region during the geomagnetic storm of May 27, 1967. The horizontal scale size revealed by these observations is in agreement with that of high-altitude traveling ionospheric disturbances. It is conjectured that the geomagnetic storm is a source of planetary and synoptic scale neutral atmospheric waves in the middle atmosphere. The possible existence of a source of waves of the proper scale size to trigger instabilities in middle atmospheric circulation systems may be significant in the study of lower atmospheric response to geomagnetic activity.
Chiu, Y. T.↗
Occurrence of Large Geomagnetically Induced Currents Within the EPRI SUNBURST Monitoring Network
Space weather, a natural hazard, can adversely impact human technological assets. High-voltage electric power transmission grids constitute one of the most critical technological systems vulnerable to space weather driven geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). One of the major challenges pertaining to the study of GICs over the continental United States has been the availability of GIC measurements, which are critical for validation of geoelectric field and power flow models, for example. In this study, we analyze GIC measurements collected at 17 Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) SUNBURST transformer locations across the United States for which a GIC value of 10 A or greater was recorded. This data set includes 52 individual geomagnetic storms with Kp index 6 and above during the period from 2010 to 2021. The analysis confirms that there is a good correlation between the number of geomagnetic storms per year and the number of recorded GIC events. Our results also show that about 76% of the top 17 GIC events are associated with the storm main phase, while only 24% are attributed to storm sudden commencements. In addition, it is shown, for the first time, that mid-latitude positive bays can cause large GICs over the continental United States. Finally, this study shows that the largest measured GIC event in the data set was associated with a localized intense dB/dt structure, which could be attributed to substorm activity.
Chigomezyo M. Ngwira↗
The aurora as a source of planetary-scale waves in the middle atmosphere
Photographs of global scale auroral forms taken by scanning radiometers onboard weather satellites in 1972 show that auroral bands exhibit well organized wave motion with typical zonal wave number of 5 or so. The scale size of these waves is in agreement with that of well organized neutral wind fields in the 150- to 200-km region during the geomagnetic storm of May 27, 1967. Further, the horizontal scale size revealed by these observations are in agreement with that of high altitude traveling ionospheric disturbances. It is conjectured that the geomagnetic storm is a source of planetary and synoptic scale neutral atmospheric waves in the middle atmosphere. Although there is, at present, no observation of substorm related waves of this scale size at mesospheric and stratospheric altitudes, the possible existence of a new source of waves of the proper scale size to trigger instabilities in middle atmospheric circulation systems may be significant in the study of lower atmospheric response to geomagnetic activity.
Chiu, Y. T.↗
Applying AI tools to operational space environmental analysis
The U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) space environmental operations centers are facing increasingly complex challenges meeting the needs of their growing user community. These centers provide current space environmental information and short term forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Recent advances in modeling and data access have provided sophisticated tools for making accurate and timely forecasts, but have introduced new problems associated with handling and analyzing large quantities of complex data. AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques have been considered as potential solutions to some of these problems. Fielding AI systems has proven more difficult than expected, in part because of operational constraints. Using systems which have been demonstrated successfully in the operational environment will provide a basis for a useful data fusion and analysis capability. Our approach uses a general purpose AI system already in operational use within the military intelligence community, called the Temporal Analysis System (TAS). TAS is an operational suite of tools supporting data processing, data visualization, historical analysis, situation assessment and predictive analysis. TAS includes expert system tools to analyze incoming events for indications of particular situations and predicts future activity. The expert system operates on a knowledge base of temporal patterns encoded using a knowledge representation called Temporal Transition Models (TTM's) and an event database maintained by the other TAS tools. The system also includes a robust knowledge acquisition and maintenance tool for creating TTM's using a graphical specification language. The ability to manipulate TTM's in a graphical format gives non-computer specialists an intuitive way of accessing and editing the knowledge base. To support space environmental analyses, we used TAS's ability to define domain specific event analysis abstractions. The prototype system defines events covering reports of natural phenomena such as solar flares, bursts, geomagnetic storms, and five others pertinent to space environmental analysis. With our preliminary event definitions we experimented with TAS's support for temporal pattern analysis using X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts as case studies. We are currently working on a framework for integrating advanced graphics and space environmental models into this analytical environment.
Krajnak, Mike↗
Note on Hydromagnetic Propagation and Geomagnetic Field Stability
In the adjoining letter, Dessler [1961] argues that the interface between the solar wind and the geomagnetic field is stable and cannot, therefore, generate hydromagnetic waves. According to our interpretation, his argument may be paraphrased as follows: He observes that, for many sudden commencement geomagnetic storms, surface magnetograms show no marked change in the level of disturbances from the period before the sudden commencement until well into the initial phase of the storm. He applies the attenuation factors calculated by Francis and Karplus [1960] to the measurements of the 1 cps component of the magnetic disturbances obtained at the surface. From this calculation, he concludes that, during the initial phase of these geomagnetic storms, the amplitudes of hydromagnetic disturbances above the ionosphere are less than 1. Assuming that the sudden commencement indicates the presence of a solar wind, he further concludes that hydromagnetie disturbances are not generated in the region between the geomagnetic field and the solar wind and that this interface is, therefore, inherently stable. He subsequently accounts for the hydromagnetie disturbances which are frequently observed at the earth as having been produced by fluctuations in the energy density of the impinging solar wind.
Coleman, P. J., Jr.↗
The geomagnetic control of the lower thermosphere wind system over East Siberia
The geomagnetic control of ionospheric D region dynamics was revealed and confirmed on the basis of radiophysical wind measurements (1978 to 1983) over East Siberia. The monthly mean parameters of the wind system are different for quiet and disturbed conditions. There is an increase in stability of the meridional wind with increasing level of geomagnetic activity. The influence of geomagnetic storms on the measured wind is considered on the basis of 31 events. There are effects on the phase of the semidiurnal tidal wind, but variations of amplitude are weak. The effect of the geomagnetic storm depends on the intensity and is more clear-cut for the A sub p is greater than 100.
Kazimirovsky, E. S.↗
CME Interaction with Large-Scale Coronal Structures
This talk presents some key observations that highlight the importance of CME interaction with other large scale structures such as CMEs and coronal holes . Such interactions depend on the phase of the solar cycle: during maximum, CMEs are ejected more frequently, so CME-CME interaction becomes dominant. During the rise phase, the polar coronal holes are strong, so the interaction between polar coronal holes and CMEs is important, which also leads to a possible increase in the number of interplanetary CMEs observed as magnetic clouds. During the declining phase, there are more equatorial coronal holes, so CMEs originating near these coronal holes are easily deflected. CMEs can be deflected toward and away from the Sun-Earth line resulting in interesting geospace consequences. For example, the largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 was due to a CME that was deflected towards the Sun-earth line from E22. CME deflection away from the Sun-Earth line diminishes the chance of a CME producing a geomagnetic storm. CME interaction in the coronagraphic field of view was first identified using enhanced radio emission, which is an indication of acceleration of low energy (approx.10 keV) electrons in the interaction site. CME interaction, therefore, may also have implications for proton acceleration. For example, solar energetic particle events typically occur with a higher intensity, whenever multiple CMEs occur in quick succession from the same source region. CME deflection may also have implications to the arrival of energetic particles to earth because magnetic connectivity may be changed by the interaction. I illustrate the above points using examples from SOHO, STEREO, Wind, and ACE data .
Gopalswarny, Nat↗
The Solar Origins of Severe Space Weather
Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) contribute to space weather by producing geomagnetic storms and accelerating energetic particles, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. This paper discusses the kinematic and solar-source properties of these CMEs and how they vary with the solar activity cycle with particular emphasis on the following issues. Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the magnetic field in CMEs and/or their sheath. Geoeffective CMEs originate close to the disk center of the Sun. Geoeffective CMEs are more energetic (average speed approx.1000 km/s, mostly halo CMEs or partial halo CMEs). CMEs producing solar energetic particles are the fastest (average speed approx. 1600 km/s) of all CME populations and have very high halo CME fraction. The source location requirement is different for Geoeffective and SEP-producing CMEs because of the different paths taken by CME plasma and energetic particles.
Gopalswamy, Nat↗
THEORY OF SUDDEN COMMENCEMENTS AND OF THE FIRST PHASE OF A MAGNETIC STORM
Theory of sudden commencements and of the first phase of a geomagnetic storm
MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS↗
Predicting Global Ground Geoelectric Field With Coupled Geospace and Three-Dimensional Geomagnetic Induction Models
We forecast the global effects of space weather on the geoelectric and geomagnetic fields using a novel combination of methods. We use a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) model of Earth's electrical conductivity and a realistic representation of magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems. Our scheme involves the following steps: (1) We run a global magnetohydrodynamic model of the magnetosphere coupled to an electrostatic model of the ionosphere. (2) We calculate a global time series of the ground magnetic field resulting from the ionospheric, field-aligned, and magnetospheric currents of the global magnetohydrodynamic model. (3) We approximate this external field by an equivalent source current flowing in a thin shell above Earth. (4) We calculate a global time series of geoelectric and geomagnetic fields from the equivalent current and a 3-D conductivity model of Earth that also takes into account the coast effect due to large horizontal conductivity gradient. We verify our implementation by comparing the results against known analytic and numeric solutions, and then apply our scheme to the geomagnetic storm of 14 and 15 December 2006. In particular, we show that accounting for 3-D structure of Earth's conductivity results in significantly enhanced geoelectric field at large lateral gradients of conductivity, especially in coastal regions, both at middle and high latitudes. In the studied geomagnetic storm the largest values of 3-D geoelectric field are detected at high latitudes reaching 2.5 volts per kilometer and the 3-D effect extends inland by a few hundred kilometers.
Honkonen, I.↗
Geomagnetic response to magnetic clouds
Results of superimposed epoch analyses of hourly values of the equatorial Dst geomagnetic index and the B(x) component of the interplanetary magnetic field are given for 19 magnetic clouds. Results show statistical associations between magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms, and between clouds without preceding shocks and gradual commencements. It was found that 75 percent of the clouds had a maximum Dst of less than -30 gammas, and that 95 percent of the clouds had a maximum Dst of less than about -16 gammas. In the main phase and recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, the Dst index simultaneously decreases to a large negative value at the onset of a large sustained southward magnetic field, and recovery starts when the magnetic field becomes northward.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Aspects of Coronal Mass Ejections Related to Space Weather
Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. It was possible to characterize corona) mass ejections (CMEs) that cause extreme solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. In this paper I discuss the special populations of CMEs that have significant interplanetary consequences: shock-driving CMEs identified based on their association with type 11 radio bursts and in-situ shocks, SEP-producing CMEs, and geoeffective CMEs (those that produce geomagnetic storms). I discuss the kinematic and solar-source properties of these populations and how they vary with the solar activity cycle. I also compare their properties with the general population of CMEs, so one can recognize when and where these events occur on the Sun.
Gopalswamy, Nat↗
Source and seed populations for relativistic electrons: Their roles in radiation belt changes
Strong enhancements of outer Van Allen belt electrons have been shown to have a clear dependence on solar wind speed and on the duration of southward interplanetary magnetic field. However, individual case study analyses also have demonstrated that many geomagnetic storms produce little in the way of outer belt enhancements and, in fact, may produce substantial losses of relativistic electrons. In this study, focused upon a key period in August–September 2014, we use GOES geostationary orbit electron flux data and Van Allen Probes particle and fields data to study the process of radiation belt electron acceleration. One particular interval, 13–22 September, initiated by a short-lived geomagnetic storm and characterized by a long period of primarily northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), showed strong depletion of relativistic electrons (including an unprecedented observation of long-lasting depletion at geostationary orbit) while an immediately preceding, and another immediately subsequent, storm showed strong radiation belt enhancement. We demonstrate with these data that two distinct electron populations resulting from magnetospheric substorm activity are crucial elements in the ultimate acceleration of highly relativistic electrons in the outer belt: the source population (tens of keV) that give rise to VLF wave growth and the seed population (hundreds of keV) that are, in turn, accelerated through VLF wave interactions to much higher energies. ULF waves may also play a role by either inhibiting or enhancing this process through radial diffusion effects. Furthermore, if any components of the inner magnetospheric accelerator happen to be absent, the relativistic radiation belt enhancement fails to materialize.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗