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At least 289 records · Page 16

Magnetic Untwisting in Solar Jets that Go into the Outer Corona in Polar Coronal Holes

We present results from 14 exceptionally high‐reaching large solar jets observed in the polar coronal holes. EUV movies from SDO/AIA show that each jet is similar to many other similar‐size and smaller jets that erupt in coronal holes, but each is exceptional in that it goes higher than most other jets, so high that it is observed in the outer corona beyond 2.2 R(sub Sun) in images from the SOHO/LASCO/C2 coronagraph. For these high‐reaching jets, we find: (1) the front of the jet transits the corona below 2.2 R(sub Sun) at a speed typically several times the sound speed; (2) each jet displays an exceptionally large amount of spin as it erupts; (3) in the outer corona, most jets display oscillatory swaying having an amplitude of a few degrees and a period of order 1 hour. We conclude that these jets are magnetically driven, propose that the driver is a magnetic‐untwisting wave that is grossly a large‐amplitude (i.e., nonlinear) torsional Alfven wave that is put into the reconnected open magnetic field in the jet by interchange reconnection as the jet erupts, and estimate from the measured spinning and swaying that the magnetic‐untwisting wave loses most of its energy in the inner corona below 2.2 R(sub Sun). From these results for these big jets, we reason that the torsional magnetic waves observed in Type‐II spicules should dissipate in the corona in the same way and could thereby power much of the coronal heating in coronal holes.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗

The X-Ray Surveyor Mission: A Concept Study

NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory continues to provide an unparalleled means for exploring the high-energy universe. With its half-arcsecond angular resolution, Chandra studies have deepened our understanding of galaxy clusters, active galactic nuclei, galaxies, supernova remnants, neutron stars, black holes, and solar system objects. As we look beyond Chandra, it is clear that comparable or even better angular resolution with greatly increased photon throughput is essential to address ever more demanding science questions-such as the formation and growth of black hole seeds at very high redshifts; the emergence of the first galaxy groups; and details of feedback over a large range of scales from galaxies to galaxy clusters. Recently, we initiated a concept study for such a mission, dubbed X-ray Surveyor. The X-ray Surveyor strawman payload is comprised of a high-resolution mirror assembly and an instrument set, which may include an X-ray microcalorimeter, a high-definition imager, and a dispersive grating spectrometer and its readout. The mirror assembly will consist of highly nested, thin, grazing-incidence mirrors, for which a number of technical approaches are currently under development-including adjustable X-ray optics, differential deposition, and new polishing techniques applied to a variety of substrates. This study benefits from previous studies of large missions carried out over the past two decades and, in most areas, points to mission requirements no more stringent than those of Chandra.

Astronomy↗

Promoting A-Priori Interoperability of HLA-Based Simulations in the Space Domain: The SISO Space Reference FOM Initiative

Distributed and Real-Time Simulation plays a key-role in the Space domain being exploited for missions and systems analysis and engineering as well as for crew training and operational support. One of the most popular standards is the 1516-2010 IEEE Standard for Modeling and Simulation (M&S) High Level Architecture (HLA). HLA supports the implementation of distributed simulations (called Federations) in which a set of simulation entities (called Federates) can interact using a Run-Time Infrastructure (RTI). In a given Federation, a Federate can publish and/or subscribes objects and interactions on the RTI only in accordance with their structures as defined in a FOM (Federation Object Model). Currently, the Space domain is characterized by a set of incompatible FOMs that, although meet the specific needs of different organizations and projects, increases the long-term cost for interoperability. In this context, the availability of a reference FOM for the Space domain will enable the development of interoperable HLA-based simulators for related joint projects and collaborations among worldwide organizations involved in the Space domain (e.g. NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, and JAXA). The paper presents a first set of results achieved by a SISO standardization effort that aims at providing a Space Reference FOM for international collaboration on Space systems simulations.

Moller, Bjorn↗

Eruptions that Drive Coronal Jets in a Solar Active Region

Solar coronal jets are common in both coronal holes and in active regions (e.g., Shibata et al. 1992, Shimojo et al. 1996, Cirtain et al. 2007. Savcheva et al. 2007). Recently, Sterling et al. (2015), using data from Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA, found that coronal jets originating in polar coronal holes result from the eruption of small-scale filaments (minifilaments). The jet bright point (JBP) seen in X-rays and hotter EUV channels off to one side of the base of the jet's spire develops at the location where the minifilament erupts, consistent with the JBPs being miniature versions of typical solar flares that occur in the wake of large-scale filament eruptions. Here we consider whether active region coronal jets also result from the same minifilament-eruption mechanism, or whether they instead result from a different mechanism (e.g. Yokoyama & Shibata 1995). We present observations of an on-disk active region (NOAA AR 11513) that produced numerous jets on 2012 June 30, using data from SDO/AIA and HMI, and from GOES/SXI. We find that several of these active region jets also originate with eruptions of miniature filaments (size scale ~20'') emanating from small-scale magnetic neutral lines of the region. This demonstrates that active region coronal jets are indeed frequently driven by minifilament eruptions. Other jets from the active region were also consistent with their drivers being minifilament eruptions, but we could not confirm this because the onsets of those jets were hidden from our view. This work was supported by funding from NASA/LWS, NASA/HGI, and Hinode. A full report of this study appears in Sterling et al. (2016).

Solar↗

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Barghouty, Nasser↗