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At least 289 records · Page 16

Parametric Cost Analysis: A Design Function

Parametric cost analysis uses equations to map measurable system attributes into cost. The measures of the system attributes are called metrics. The equations are called cost estimating relationships (CER's), and are obtained by the analysis of cost and technical metric data of products analogous to those to be estimated. Examples of system metrics include mass, power, failure_rate, mean_time_to_repair, energy _consumed, payload_to_orbit, pointing_accuracy, manufacturing_complexity, number_of_fasteners, and percent_of_electronics_weight. The basic assumption is that a measurable relationship exists between system attributes and the cost of the system. If a function exists, the attributes are cost drivers. Candidates for metrics include system requirement metrics and engineering process metrics. Requirements are constraints on the engineering process. From optimization theory we know that any active constraint generates cost by not permitting full optimization of the objective. Thus, requirements are cost drivers. Engineering processes reflect a projection of the requirements onto the corporate culture, engineering technology, and system technology. Engineering processes are an indirect measure of the requirements and, hence, are cost drivers.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Control System Architectures, Technologies and Concepts for Near Term and Future Human Exploration of Space

Technologies that facilitate the design and control of complex, hybrid, and resource-constrained systems are examined. This paper focuses on design methodologies, and system architectures, not on specific control methods that may be applied to life support subsystems. Honeywell and Boeing have estimated that 60-80Y0 of the effort in developing complex control systems is software development, and only 20-40% is control system development. It has also been shown that large software projects have failure rates of as high as 50-65%. Concepts discussed include the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and design patterns with the goal of creating a self-improving, self-documenting system design process. Successful architectures for control must not only facilitate hardware to software integration, but must also reconcile continuously changing software with much less frequently changing hardware. These architectures rely on software modules or components to facilitate change. Architecting such systems for change leverages the interfaces between these modules or components.

Boulanger, Richard↗

Atomic Oxygen Lamp Cleaning Facility Fabricated and Tested

NASA Lewis Research Center's Atomic Oxygen Lamp Cleaning Facility was designed to produce an atomic oxygen plasma within a metal halide lamp to remove carbon-based contamination. It is believed that these contaminants contribute to the high failure rate realized during the production of these lamps. The facility is designed to evacuate a metal halide lamp and produce a radio frequency generated atomic oxygen plasma within it. Oxygen gas, with a purity of 0.9999 percent and in the pressure range of 150 to 250 mtorr, is used in the lamp for plasma generation while the lamp is being cleaned. After cleaning is complete, the lamp can be backfilled with 0.9999-percent pure nitrogen and torch sealed. The facility comprises various vacuum components connected to a radiation-shielded box that encloses the bulb during operation. Radiofrequency power is applied to the two parallel plates of a capacitor, which are on either side of the lamp. The vacuum pump used, a Leybold Trivac Type D4B, has a pumping speed of 4-m3/hr, has an ultimate pressure of <8x10-4, and is specially adapted for pure oxygen service. The electronic power supply, matching network, and controller (500-W, 13.56-MHz) used to supply the radiofrequency power were purchased from RF Power Products Inc. Initial test results revealed that this facility could remove the carbon-based contamination from within bulbs.

Sechkar, Edward A.↗

Granular Materials and the Risks They Pose for Success on the Moon and Mars

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to do it on the Moon and Mars as we do it on Earth. This paper brings to the fore how little these processes are understood and the millennia-long trial-and-error practices that lead to today's massive over-design, high failure rate, and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks.

Wilkinson, R. Allen↗

Constellation Ground Systems Launch Availability Analysis: Enhancing Highly Reliable Launch Systems Design

Success of the Constellation Program's lunar architecture requires successfully launching two vehicles, Ares I/Orion and Ares V/Altair, within a very limited time period. The reliability and maintainability of flight vehicles and ground systems must deliver a high probability of successfully launching the second vehicle in order to avoid wasting the on-orbit asset launched by the first vehicle. The Ground Operations Project determined which ground subsystems had the potential to affect the probability of the second launch and allocated quantitative availability requirements to these subsystems. The Ground Operations Project also developed a methodology to estimate subsystem reliability, availability, and maintainability to ensure that ground subsystems complied with allocated launch availability and maintainability requirements. The verification analysis developed quantitative estimates of subsystem availability based on design documentation, testing results, and other information. Where appropriate, actual performance history was used to calculate failure rates for legacy subsystems or comparative components that will support Constellation. The results of the verification analysis will be used to assess compliance with requirements and to highlight design or performance shortcomings for further decision making. This case study will discuss the subsystem requirements allocation process, describe the ground systems methodology for completing quantitative reliability, availability, and maintainability analysis, and present findings and observation based on analysis leading to the Ground Operations Project Preliminary Design Review milestone.

Gernand, Jeffrey L.↗

On Using Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) Electronic Products in Space

NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) has utilized COTS products in its programs since the early 1990's. Recently it has become evident that, of all failure modes possible, radiation will probably dominate; sometimes to the point of driving system architecture. It is now imperative that radiation susceptibility be addressed when writing the system requirements. Susceptibility assessment, e.g. testing, must begin early in the design phase to establish performance and continue through the hardware qualification program to prove satisfaction of the original requirements(s). Examples of requirements, testing, and architecture versus failure rate will be given.

Culpepper, William X.↗

Reliability Quantification of Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Components

The Advanced Stirling Convertor, is intended to provide power for an unmanned planetary spacecraft and has an operational life requirement of 17 years. Over this 17 year mission, the ASC must provide power with desired performance and efficiency and require no corrective maintenance. Reliability demonstration testing for the ASC was found to be very limited due to schedule and resource constraints. Reliability demonstration must involve the application of analysis, system and component level testing, and simulation models, taken collectively. Therefore, computer simulation with limited test data verification is a viable approach to assess the reliability of ASC components. This approach is based on physics-of-failure mechanisms and involves the relationship among the design variables based on physics, mechanics, material behavior models, interaction of different components and their respective disciplines such as structures, materials, fluid, thermal, mechanical, electrical, etc. In addition, these models are based on the available test data, which can be updated, and analysis refined as more data and information becomes available. The failure mechanisms and causes of failure are included in the analysis, especially in light of the new information, in order to develop guidelines to improve design reliability and better operating controls to reduce the probability of failure. Quantified reliability assessment based on fundamental physical behavior of components and their relationship with other components has demonstrated itself to be a superior technique to conventional reliability approaches based on utilizing failure rates derived from similar equipment or simply expert judgment.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Fischer, Gerd M.↗

Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station through 2020 and Beyond: Including Epistemic Uncertainty in Reassessing Confidence Targets

This paper introduces an analytical approach, Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT), which can be used to assess uncertainty in International Space Station (ISS) hardware sparing necessary to extend the life of the vehicle. There are several key areas under consideration in this research. We investigate what sparing confidence targets may be reasonable to ensure vehicle survivability and for completion of science on the ISS. The results of the analysis will provide a methodological basis for reassessing vehicle subsystem confidence targets. An ongoing annual analysis currently compares the probability of existing spares exceeding the total expected unit demand of the Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) in functional hierarchies approximating the vehicle subsystems. In cases where the functional hierarchies availability does not meet subsystem confidence targets, the current sparing analysis further identifies which ORUs may require additional spares to extend the life of the ISS. The resulting probability is dependent upon hardware reliability estimates. However, the ISS hardware fleet carries considerable epistemic uncertainty (uncertainty in the knowledge of the true hardware failure rate), which does not currently factor into the annual sparing analysis. The existing confidence targets may be conservative. This paper will also discuss how confidence targets may be relaxed based on the inclusion of epistemic uncertainty for each ORU. The paper will conclude with strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life, 2020 and beyond.

Anderson, Leif↗

The DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey: Design, Observations, Data Reduction, and Redshifts

We describe the design and data analysis of the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey, the densest and largest high-precision redshift survey of galaxies at z approx. 1 completed to date. The survey was designed to conduct a comprehensive census of massive galaxies, their properties, environments, and large-scale structure down to absolute magnitude MB = −20 at z approx. 1 via approx.90 nights of observation on the Keck telescope. The survey covers an area of 2.8 Sq. deg divided into four separate fields observed to a limiting apparent magnitude of R(sub AB) = 24.1. Objects with z approx. < 0.7 are readily identifiable using BRI photometry and rejected in three of the four DEEP2 fields, allowing galaxies with z > 0.7 to be targeted approx. 2.5 times more efficiently than in a purely magnitude-limited sample. Approximately 60% of eligible targets are chosen for spectroscopy, yielding nearly 53,000 spectra and more than 38,000 reliable redshift measurements. Most of the targets that fail to yield secure redshifts are blue objects that lie beyond z approx. 1.45, where the [O ii] 3727 Ang. doublet lies in the infrared. The DEIMOS 1200 line mm(exp −1) grating used for the survey delivers high spectral resolution (R approx. 6000), accurate and secure redshifts, and unique internal kinematic information. Extensive ancillary data are available in the DEEP2 fields, particularly in the Extended Groth Strip, which has evolved into one of the richest multiwavelength regions on the sky. This paper is intended as a handbook for users of the DEEP2 Data Release 4, which includes all DEEP2 spectra and redshifts, as well as for the DEEP2 DEIMOS data reduction pipelines. Extensive details are provided on object selection, mask design, biases in target selection and redshift measurements, the spec2d two-dimensional data-reduction pipeline, the spec1d automated redshift pipeline, and the zspec visual redshift verification process, along with examples of instrumental signatures or other artifacts that in some cases remain after data reduction. Redshift errors and catastrophic failure rates are assessed through more than 2000 objects with duplicate observations. Sky subtraction is essentially photon-limited even under bright OH sky lines; we describe the strategies that permitted this, based on high image stability, accurate wavelength solutions, and powerful B-spline modeling methods. We also investigate the impact of targets that appear to be single objects in ground-based targeting imaging but prove to be composite in Hubble Space Telescope data; they constitute several percent of targets at z approx. 1, approaching approx. 5%-10% at z > 1.5. Summary data are given that demonstrate the superiority of DEEP2 over other deep high-precision redshift surveys at z approx. 1 in terms of redshift accuracy, sample number density, and amount of spectral information. We also provide an overview of the scientific highlights of the DEEP2 survey thus far.

Galaxy↗

Constraint-Based Off-Nominal Behavior Modeling for Europa Clipper

The risk analysis for the Europa Clipper mission evaluates the probability of mission failure based on the failure rates of individual components and dependencies among them. The probabilities are calculated by integrating over the intervals of time within which a fault occurs, accounting for an infinite number of cases. The response of the spacecraft to different faults can result in different schedules of activities, changing the intervals of integration. Europa currently uses models of spacecraft systems and components to simulate individual flight scenarios. The goal is to develop a framework for integrating, automating, and improving this modeling process. We describe an approach to generating the schedules for the different fault cases and determining the intervals for faults. It is not enough to just simulate individual cases because we are working with continuous variables that generate an infinite number of possible futures. Instead, we determine time windows within which certain faults can occur and use these time windows as bounds for integration. We found that determining these time windows is a constraint optimization problem. In order to represent these problems, we employ a language based on ontologies of behavior and scenarios. The language enables us to specify constraints in a simple, declarative syntax. A constraint-based analysis engine uses the declarative specification to identify bounds on system parameters and fill in details of behavior. For example, we created a detailed model of power generation, power use, and the corresponding effects on the battery in order to determine when an undervoltage fault can occur. An undervoltage during a trajectory correction maneuver requires that thrusting be interrupted for just enough time to recharge the battery such that the maneuver can be completed within battery limits. This behavior is generated based on the model to minimize the interruption time. For certain scenarios the constraint optimization problems were simple enough to be solved by hand, but the framework made the process substantially faster. It also produced solutions to other problems that we could not solve by hand or with existing tools and allowed us to generate and run many scenarios at once. The scenario language and engine greatly simplified the process of identifying time bounds and separating cases.

Everline, Chester J.↗

Establishing Fault Tolerance for a Class of Systems by Experiment

A long-standing problem in system verification is establishing fault tolerance at the ultra-high level by experiment. It is considered impossible because of system complexity and the enormous number of trials needed. This paper considers the problem for a class of digital systems that use redundancy to achieve reliability. The class is the systems that operate for a period of time without maintenance followed by a maintenance check that replaces components identified as faulty. The paper considers simulating a natural life test where a natural life test observes a number of operating periods. If the system does not fail during the test, it can be said to have a certain reliability at a certain confidence level. The approach in this paper is to make the simulated life test more efficient while maintaining realism by integrating structural arguments, information on fault occurrence, and fault injection in the lab. The major result of this paper is constructing a global fault model using the failure rate of the components and proving theorems about the model that tell how many, what kind, when, and where to inject faults. A simple example illustrates applying the theorems.

design of experiments↗

Spherically Actuated Motor (SAM)

A three degree of freedom (DOF) spherical actuator is proposed that will replace functions requiring three single DOF actuators in robotic manipulators, thus reducing, cost, mass, volume, part count, and failure rate. The proposed will support lunar surface construction, advanced manufacturing for in-space resource utilization, and in-space manufacturing for in-space resource utilization. Steven Peeples (ES33) serves as the PI and leverages ES33’s existing additive manufacturing equipment to enhance the department’s current robotics and manufacturing capabilities, directly leading to future proposals, patents, and commercialization.

Robotics↗

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗

Reliability Models and Demonstration of a Fault-Tolerant Motor Concept for Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles

This report documents the completion of the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology Project Annual Performance Indicator 24-3.2.4.1: “Apply and document reliability prediction for high reliability motor concept.” Two modeling tools were completed for calculation of reliability of fault-tolerant (FT) motors, and key FT operations of a modular FT motor were demonstrated experimentally. The two models are complementary tools for the stakeholder and user community. Both models employ Markov chain theory. The first model is a time-homogeneous Markov chain model, and the second is a time-inhomogeneous Markov-Weibull model. This report’s main sections are as follows: 1.0 Introduction, 2.0 Theory, 3.0 Motor Reliability Models, 4.0 Validation of FT Operation by Hardware Demonstration, and 5.0 Concluding Remarks. Novel contributions to the field include development of a modular FT motor concept for electrified vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) application, solution methods to solve the reliability calculations, development of figures of merit, and the introduction of “linked chains” to formulate a building-block approach for time-inhomogeneous Markov-Weibull modeling of motor reliability. Example case studies have been completed, and results are provided and discussed herein. A four-module FT motor concept was developed to a preliminary-design level of detail. This eVTOL FT motor concept was designed for galvanic, magnetic, and thermal isolation of stator winding faults. The reliability of the concept motor was calculated using a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain model. Employing average failure rate as a metric, 570 times greater reliability was achieved as compared to a baseline motor without fault tolerance. A demonstrator motor was built and tested. The testing demonstrated the key features of FT operation and validated the essential premises of the FT motor concepts presented herein. The experiments included successful demonstration of the feasibility of the following four key FT features: (1) terminal open-circuit operation, (2) thermal isolation after fault, (3) terminal short-circuit operation, and (4) internal short-circuit operation. These works indicate that FT modular motor drives offer promise for addressing the daunting reliability gap that electric aircraft propulsor drives are facing relative to the best conventional motor drive technology that is available today.

Electric Motor↗