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At least 289 records · Page 16

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NASA NTRS2015

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: Chapter - 5

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS1979

Active heat exchange system development for latent heat thermal energy storage

Active heat exchange concepts for use with thermal energy storage systems in the temperature range of 250 C to 350 C, using the heat of fusion of molten salts for storing thermal energy are described. Salt mixtures that freeze and melt in appropriate ranges are identified and are evaluated for physico-chemical, economic, corrosive and safety characteristics. Eight active heat exchange concepts for heat transfer during solidification are conceived and conceptually designed for use with selected storage media. The concepts are analyzed for their scalability, maintenance, safety, technological development and costs. A model for estimating and scaling storage system costs is developed and is used for economic evaluation of salt mixtures and heat exchange concepts for a large scale application. The importance of comparing salts and heat exchange concepts on a total system cost basis, rather than the component cost basis alone, is pointed out. The heat exchange concepts were sized and compared for 6.5 MPa/281 C steam conditions and a 1000 MW(t) heat rate for six hours. A cost sensitivity analysis for other design conditions is also carried out.

Lefrois, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Set of Indicators to Identify, Monitor, and Track Impacts and Change in Forests of the United States

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment(NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

U.S. forests↗

NASA NTRS2019

Utilizing Satellite Based Observations and Physical Hydrological Modeling for Freshwater Ecosystem Health in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Freshwater availability is necessary to promote economic growth through agriculture, fisheries, transport, environmental health, and social equity.The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Conservation International (CI) are partnering to use remote sensing Earth observations to improve regional efforts that assess natural resources for conservation and sustainable management. (Vollmer et al.,2018) have presented the social-ecological framework named the Freshwater Health Index (FHI), which takes account of the interplay between governance, stakeholders, freshwater ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.In this work, we develop decision support and making tools for natural resources conservation in the Lower Mekong by leveraging the FHI framework, multiple data products, and hydrological modeling capabilities (Mohammed et al., 2018). Modeling capabilities enable the integration of satellite-based daily gridded precipitation, air temperature, digital elevation model, soil characteristics, and land cover and land use information to simulate water flux framework.

Mohammed, Ibrahim N.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗

NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗

NASA NTRS1977

Lunar gravity - A long-term Keplerian rate method

Nearside tracking data from Apollo subsatellites and Lunar Orbiter 5 are used to construct a model of the farside lunar gravity field. An indirect method of calculating the average effect of all the gravity anomalies which affect spacecraft orbits is reduced to a linear estimation problem by eliminating the integration of spacecraft dynamics. Doppler frequency shifts between the lunar satellite and earth-based tracking station are used to measure the line of sight velocity component between the orbiter and the tracker; gravity determination is then performed in a weighted least squares estimator which employs the orbital rates as data and formulates the normal equations using the associated Keplerian state. Simulations performed demonstrate that farside gravity features can be economically determined by use of gravity estimates obtained from long-period models of nearside orbiting tracks.

Ferrari, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Lecture 20: The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM)

Climate change will profoundly impact Earth's environmental health as well as the world's economic and geopolitical landscape over the coming decades. The impacts of climate change are, in fact, already beginning to be experienced and have the potential to affect every living plant and animal on Earth within decades. Given this reality, every citizen of this planet should have the right to knowledge about the Earth's climate system and have the option to adapt to, or help mitigate the profound changes that are coming. In addition, a portion of the workforce needs to be capable of interpreting and analyzing climate information because, since the impacts of climate change will be widespread, pervasive, and continue to change over time, more professions will be interacting with climate data. We are already at, or past, the point where educators and their students require access to the scientific and technological resources - computer models, data, and visualization tools - that scientists use daily in the study of climate change. Although scientists use many methods to study Earth's climate system, global climate models (GCMs) have become the primary tools for exploring the complex interactions between components of the entire system: atmosphere, oceans, and land. GCMs are used to make projections of future climate change, to simulate climates of the past, and even to help scientists look for life on other planets. Like any model, a GCM can help people evaluate actions before they are taken. Like Business Intelligence software, they are Climate Intelligence tools. Unfortunately, GCMs are black boxes to most people. A previous chapter in this book by Gary Russell, entitled Building a Climate Model, is one example of the growing body of literature aimed at the general public describing the inner workings of global climate models. This literature goes a long way toward explaining climate model fundamentals. However, it will not be enough to alleviate their black-box nature unless people are afforded hands-on, authentic learning experiences as well.

Chandler, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A pilot level decision analysis of thermionic reactor development strategy for nuclear electric propulsion

The development policy for thermionic reactors to provide electric propulsion and power for space exploration was analyzed to develop a logical procedure for selecting development alternatives that reflect the technical feasibility, JPL/NASA project objectives, and the economic environment of the project. The partial evolution of a decision model from the underlying philosophy of decision analysis to a deterministic pilot phase is presented, and the general manner in which this decision model can be employed to examine propulsion development alternatives is illustrated.

Menke, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Low-cost polycrystalline process for solar cells

Economical batch process includes resolidification step to improve conversion efficiency. Experimental models made by process vary in conversion efficiency from 1.4 to more than 6 percent.

Chu, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Float-zone processing in a weightless environment

The results were reported of investigations to: (1) test the validity of analyses which set maximum practical diameters for Si crystals that can be processed by the float zone method in a near weightless environment, (2) determine the convective flow patterns induced in a typical float zone, Si melt under conditions perceived to be advantageous to the crystal growth process using flow visualization techniques applied to a dimensionally scaled model of the Si melt, (3) revise the estimates of the economic impact of space produced Si crystal by the float zone method on the U.S. electronics industry, and (4) devise a rational plan for future work related to crystal growth phenomena wherein low gravity conditions available in a space site can be used to maximum benefit to the U.S. electronics industry.

Fowle, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Alternative strategies for implementing silicon-ribbon technology for photovoltaic applications

Interactive computer models are being designed to support the development of technological and economic data required to define the potential of silicon sheet growth for large scale photovoltaic applications. Technology projection and sensitivity analysis suggest that single-ribbon growth systems offer the best potential for achieving low-cost silicon sheet material within the shortest period of time. Such systems must be highly reliable, be capable of near unattended growth, and feature automatic melt replenishment. Processing-technology improvement, such as the following, are the key elements for reducing the cost of silicon sheet material: (i) increasing ribbon width; (ii) speeding up the growth rate; and (iii) decreasing ribbon thickness. Such tasks should be pursued in that order to minimize sheet material cost. One interesting finding is that significant reductions in sheet material cost are achievable in the near future by increasing ribbon width to 5 cm.

Kran, A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Experiments to evaluate high-temperature rolling as a low-cost process for silicon solar cells

Mechanical rolling (a process used in industry for producing large quantities of metallic sheet and strip) has been suggested for the rapid low-cost manufacture of silicon sheet to be used for photovoltaic power generation equipment, such as solar arrays. The advantages of rolling include: high rates of production, wide sheets as products, good control of dimension, and (in the case of solar grade silicon) minimal development of impurities. Experiments have been performed using high-temperature, high-speed compression of polycrystalline silicon cylinders. Metallography and X-ray diffraction techniques have been used to examine the samples both before and after compression, and a model process has been designed to evaluate the technical practicality and economic feasibility of the method.

Noel, G. T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Spatially Characterizing Effective Timber Supply

The structure of a computer-oriented cartographic model for assessing roundwood supply for generation of base load electricity is discussed. The model provides an analytical procedure for coupling spatial information of harvesting economics and owner willingness to sell stumpages. Supply is characterized in terms of standing timber; of accessibility considering various harvesting and hauling factors; and of availability as affected by ownership and residential patterns. Factors governing accessibility to timber include effective harvesting distance to haulic roads as modified by barriers and slopes. Haul distance is expressed in units that take into account the relative ease of travel along various road types to a central processing facility. Areas of accessible timber are grouped into spatial units, termed 'timbersheds', of common access to particular haul road segments that belong to unique 'transport zones'. Timber availability considerations include size of ownership parcels, housing density and excluded areas. The analysis techniques are demonstrated for a cartographic data base in western Massachusetts.

Berry, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Advanced technology satellites in the commercial environment. Volume 1: Executive summary

A set of scenarios, based on a set of traffic demand forecasts is postulated. The scenarios use a demand-driven model to launch satellites, with other limits on the available (and economical) technology. The results using a low traffic forecast show a continuing oversupply of transponders. However, the scenarios using a high traffic forecast show that considerable advanced technology including the use of 30/20 GHz is needed to satisfy demand.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1988

An analysis of possible advanced space strategies featuring the role of space resource utilization

Unresolved issues in space planning in the U.S. are examined, focusing on space resource utilization. The role of the Space Station, determining the most profitable space exploration strategies, and space resource use are discussed. Performance modeling suggests that lunar oxygen is useful on the moon and economical in LEO if lunar hydrogen is available. It is found that the use of volatile materials from Phobos and Deimos might be undertaken if lunar hydrogen is unavailable. It is suggested that resource synergisms between operations in the Mars system and in earth-moon space have important commercial possibilities.

Cordell, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS1990

Integration of viscous effects into inviscid computational methods

A variety of practical fluid dynamic problems related to the low-speed, high Reynolds number flow over aircraft and ground vehicles fall in a category where some simplified mathematical models become applicable. This provides the fluid dynamicists with a more economical computational tool, compared to the alternative solution of the Navier Stokes equations. The objective was to provide a brief survey of some of the viscous boundary layer solution methods and to propose a method for coupling between the inviscid outer flow and the viscous boundary layer solutions. Results of this survey and details of the viscous/inviscid flow coupling efforts are presented.

Katz, Joseph↗