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NASA NTRS2014

Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS

(1) NASA is developing a new heavy lift launch system for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit comprising of the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO); (2) The desire of the system is to ensure a high confidence of successfully launching the exploration missions, especially those that require multiple launches, have a narrow Earth departure window, and high investment costs; and (3) This presentation discusses the process used by a Cross-Program team to develop the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Launch Availability (LA) Technical Performance Measure (TPM) and allocate it to each of the Programs through the use of Discrete Event Simulations (DES).

Watson, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2014

Air Pollution Over the Ganges Basin and Northwest Bay of Bengal in the Early Postmonsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office. This reanalysis is based on a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) model radiatively coupled with Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. In October over the period 2002-2009, MERRAero showed that AOT was lower over the east of the Ganges basin than over the northwest of the Ganges basin: this was despite the fact that the east of the Ganges basin should have produced higher anthropogenic aerosol emissions because of higher population density, increased industrial output, and transportation. This is evidence that higher aerosol emissions do not always correspond to higher AOT over the areas where the effects of meteorological factors on AOT dominate those of aerosol emissions. MODIS AOT assimilation was essential for correcting modeled AOT mainly over the northwest of the Ganges basin, where AOT increments were maximal. Over the east of the Ganges basin and northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), AOT increments were low and MODIS AOT assimilation did not contribute significantly to modeled AOT. Our analysis showed that increasing AOT trends over northwest BoB (exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin) were reproduced by GEOS-5, not because of MODIS AOT assimilation butmainly because of the model capability of reproducing meteorological factors contributing to AOT trends. Moreover, vertically integrated aerosol mass flux was sensitive to wind convergence causing aerosol accumulation over northwest BoB.

AOT↗

NASA NTRS1994

Statistical Analysis of Interference Between Earth Stations and Earth-Orbiting Satellites

Determination of the potential for radio frequency interference between Earth stations and orbiting spacecraft is often desirable. This information can be used to select frequencies for radio systems to avoid interference or it can be used to determine if coordination between radio systems is necessary. Also, it is useful for planning emission standards and filtering requirements for future telecommunications equipment. A model is developed that will determine the statistics of interference between Earth stations and elliptical orbiting spacecraft. The model uses orbital dynamics, detailed antenna patterns, and spectral characteristics to obtain accurate levels of interference at the victim receiver. The model is programmed into a computer simulation to obtain long term statistics of interference.

satellite communications interference geometry↗

NASA NTRS1990

Design of an unmanned, reusable vehicle to de-orbit debris in Earth orbit

The space debris problem is becoming more important because as orbital missions increase, the amount of debris increases. It was the design team's objective to present alternative designs and a problem solution for a deorbiting vehicle that will alleviate the problem by reducing the amount of large debris in earth orbit. The design team was asked to design a reusable, unmanned vehicle to de-orbit debris in earth orbit. The design team will also construct a model to demonstrate the system configuration and key operating features. The alternative designs for the unmanned, reusable vehicle were developed in three stages: selection of project requirements and success criteria, formulation of a specification list, and the creation of alternatives that would satisfy the standards set forth by the design team and their sponsor. The design team selected a Chain and Bar Shot method for deorbiting debris in earth orbit. The De-orbiting Vehicle (DOV) uses the NASA Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) as the propulsion and command modules with the deorbiting module attached to the front.

Aziz, Shahed↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cost Breakeven Analysis of Lunar ISRU for Human Lunar Surface Architectures

The return of humans to the lunar surface encompasses a range of possible architectures from brief Apollo-like sorties to long-term sustainment of human presence. Any architecture in this span requires propellant for the crew’s ascent from the lunar surface, as well as consumables to support their presence on the Moon. Oxygen and hydrogen are candidates for the propellant for the ascent vehicle due to their high specific impulse and potential for production from lunar resources and also constitute important consumables for the crew. Thus, the production of oxygen and/or hydrogen from lunar resources could significantly reduce the mass that must be sent from Earth to enable future human lunar missions. To assess the merits of using lunar resources, the costs associated with developing, producing, launching, operating, and maintaining those systems must be considered relative to the costs of delivering the needed resources from Earth. The demand for those resources depends upon the nature of the lunar mission, while the costs of both Earth-derived and lunar-derived resources depend on the performance requirements and technology capabilities associated with each approach. Thus, determining which approach is more cost efficient requires modeling the performance and cost of the associated systems as well as the range of possible architectures over which such a determination might apply. This research proposes a model that parametrically captures the factors influencing the relevant costs of providing propellant and crew consumables on the lunar surface from Earth and from the Moon. Two ISRU system models are assessed relative to propellant delivery from Earth. In this model, lunar ISRU breaks even with propellant delivery from Earth at high propellant demands and mission durations with multi-year ISRU system lifetimes; however, the costs of developing the necessary technologies to support a highly reliable and autonomous lunar ISRU system were not included.

ISRU↗

NASA NTRS2014

Morpheus Lander Roll Control System and Wind Modeling

The Morpheus prototype lander is a testbed capable of vertical takeoff and landing developed by NASA Johnson Space Center to assess advanced space technologies. Morpheus completed a series of flight tests at Kennedy Space Center to demonstrate autonomous landing and hazard avoidance for future exploration missions. As a prototype vehicle being tested in Earth's atmosphere, Morpheus requires a robust roll control system to counteract aerodynamic forces. This paper describes the control algorithm designed that commands jet firing and delay times based on roll orientation. Design, analysis, and testing are supported using a high fidelity, 6 degree-of-freedom simulation of vehicle dynamics. This paper also details the wind profiles generated using historical wind data, which are necessary to validate the roll control system in the simulation environment. In preparation for Morpheus testing, the wind model was expanded to create day-of-flight wind profiles based on data delivered by Kennedy Space Center. After the test campaign, a comparison of flight and simulation performance was completed to provide additional model validation.

Gambone, Elisabeth A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Computational Complexity, Parallel Scalability, and Performance of Atmospheric Data Assimilation Algorithms

The computational complexity of algorithms for Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (4DDA) at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is discussed. In 4DDA, observations are assimilated with the output of a dynamical model to generate best-estimates of the states of the system. It is thus a mapping problem, whereby scattered observations are converted into regular accurate maps of wind, temperature, moisture and other variables. The DAO is developing and using 4DDA algorithms that provide these datasets, or analyses, in support of Earth System Science research. Two large-scale algorithms are discussed. The first approach, the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and an observation-space based analysis system, the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). GEOS DAS is very similar to global meteorological weather forecasting data assimilation systems, but is used at NASA for climate research. Systems of this size typically run at between 1 and 20 gigaflop/s. The second approach, the Kalman filter, uses a more consistent algorithm to determine the forecast error covariance matrix than does GEOS DAS. For atmospheric assimilation, the gridded dynamical fields typically have More than 10(exp 6) variables, therefore the full error covariance matrix may be in excess of a teraword. For the Kalman filter this problem can easily scale to petaflop/s proportions. We discuss the computational complexity of GEOS DAS and our implementation of the Kalman filter. We also discuss and quantify some of the technical issues and limitations in developing efficient, in terms of wall clock time, and scalable parallel implementations of the algorithms.

Lyster, Peter M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A relational metric, its application to domain analysis, and an example analysis and model of a remote sensing domain

An objective and quantitative method has been developed for deriving models of complex and specialized spheres of activity (domains) from domain-generated verbal data. The method was developed for analysis of interview transcripts, incident reports, and other text documents whose original source is people who are knowledgeable about, and participate in, the domain in question. To test the method, it is applied here to a report describing a remote sensing project within the scope of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The method has the potential to improve the designs of domain-related computer systems and software by quickly providing developers with explicit and objective models of the domain in a form which is useful for design. Results of the analysis include a network model of the domain, and an object-oriented relational analysis report which describes the nodes and relationships in the network model. Other products include a database of relationships in the domain, and an interactive concordance. The analysis method utilizes a newly developed relational metric, a proximity-weighted frequency of co-occurrence. The metric is applied to relations between the most frequently occurring terms (words or multiword entities) in the domain text, and the terms found within the contexts of these terms. Contextual scope is selectable. Because of the discriminating power of the metric, data reduction from the association matrix to the network is simple. In addition to their value for design. the models produced by the method are also useful for understanding the domains themselves. They can, for example, be interpreted as models of presence in the domain.

Mcgreevy, Michael W.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mission Design Strategies for Rendezvous and Servicing of Sun-Earth Libration Point Missions

With the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and future launches of the Roman Space Telescope (RST) and larger telescopes such as the proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), the questions of where and how to rendezvous to enable servicing of these telescope missions arise. To aid in determining the allowable locations to rendezvous for servicing from a trajectory design approach, our previous research and analysis has shown feasible transfer trajectories between the Sun-Earth Libration L2 region (Quasi-Halo orbit) and the Earth Moon vicinity (Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO), Quasi-Halo Orbit, Halo Orbit, and Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO)), along with the related transfer constraints and the corresponding total fuel mass costs. We now focus on operational-like optimal scenarios for these transfers to complete a rendezvous to permit servicing at various Libration orbit locations. In this paper, we address how operational navigation and maneuver execution uncertainties impact the rendezvous timing and fuel mass (via ΔV). While optimization techniques are applied to ensure minimal ΔVs, we also analyze various transfer trajectory durations and rendezvous arrival geometries. The analysis presented includes dynamical system approaches and applies optimization through several tools including the Adaptive Trajectory Design (ATD) module as an initial guess, numerical computation using the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) and Systems Tool Kit (STK) with higher fidelity perturbation modeling, and recently developed optimization tools that incorporate dynamical systems directly into the optimization process. Transfer trajectory options examined include a direct transfer from Earth versus departures from the previously examined Earth-Moon regime orbits, e.g. NRHOs and DROs. A return from Sun-Earth to lunar vicinity for a complete servicing after a rendezvous in Sun-Earth orbit is also considered. The resultant ΔV’s for each scenario is provided with discussions on various transfer trades, rendezvous considerations, and orbital limitations from the dynamical systems. A Poincare-like mapping of trajectory and rendezvous conditions categorize feasible and optimum transfer approaches, dependent on Sun-Earth orbit mission parameters. The focus of this research addresses questions for upcoming trades regarding servicing options for current and future Sun-Earth L1 and L2 missions. By doing a comprehensive analysis approach (dynamical systems + high fidelity optimization with true operational constraints), this paper will serve as a guide for mission architecture and operational trade considerations.

Maneuver Design↗

NASA NTRS1982

NASA geodynamics program

The goals of the NASA geodynamics program comprise the study of the interior structure and composition of the earth, its crustal motions and deformations, the rotational dynamics, and the terrestrial potential fields. Laser ranging an VLBI techniques are being applied in cooperation with 16 other countries. Reflectors on the moon are illumined with laser beams from earth, which are also bounced off the Lageos and French Starlette satellites, permitting monitoring of polar motion, earth rotation, and distance to the moon within 5 cm. Mobile laser systems are being deployed for developing a gravity field model and examining crustal deformation regionally. The VLBI installations use quasars as reference objects and the GPS satellites will give position accuracy within 1-2 cm. Satellite-to-satellite tracking, Magsat, and Shuttle timing experiment data are providing geopotential field data and timing synchronization.

Fischetti, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preservation of Data for Earth System Science- Towards a Content Standard

Various remote sensing agencies of the world have created a data rich environment for research and applications over the last three decades. Especially over the last decade, the volume and variety of data useful for Earth system science have increased quite rapidly. One of the key purposes of collecting these data and generating useful digital products containing derived geophysical parameters is to study the long-term trends in the Earth s behavior. Long-term observational data and derived products are essential for validating results from models that predict the future behavior of the Earth system. Given the significant resources expended in gathering the observational data and developing the derived products, it is important to preserve them for the benefit of future generations of users. Preservation involves maintaining the bits with no loss (or loss within scientifically acceptable bounds) as they move across systems as well as over time, ensuring readability over time, and providing for long-term understandability and repeatability of previously obtained results. In order to ensure long-term understandability and repeatability, it is necessary to identify all items of content that must be preserved and plan for such preservation. This paper discusses the need for a standard enumerating and describing such content items and reports on the progress made by NASA and the Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP Federation) in the U.S. towards such a standard.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of the Aerosol Size Distribution Using a Neural Network Surrogate for the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7)

One objective of atmospheric simulations is to quantify the distribution of aerosols and their properties. Accurate parameterizations of the processes governing aerosol mass, particle number, and particle size distribution are important for predicting the Earth’s net radiative balance and aerosol-cloud interactions. The Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7) is a two-moment aerosol model that simulates mass, number, and size distribution of seven modes comprised of internally mixed aerosol species. The two-moment scheme adds significant computational expense but allows for the prediction of varying particle size distribution relative to the bulk method which predicts only total mass. In this work, we developed a neural network surrogate model for MAM7 (MAMnet) to predict the aerosol number concentration in NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) without adding prohibitive computational expense. MAMnet, can be driven by output from a single moment, mass-based, aerosol scheme (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation model (GOCART)) or from reanalysis products (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)). MAMnet was trained using number concentrations from a 5-year GEOS/MAM7 simulation at 1-degree horizontal resolution and using the total mass calculated across modes as inputs, as well as temperature and air density. The model architecture for MAMnet was based on AlexNet, the 2012 winner of the ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge. While some modifications were necessary to accommodate our problem, important aspects of the network were preserved. MAMnet was able to reproduce zonal dynamics and spatial distributions of the aerosol number concentration however predictability in the upper troposphere was poor.

Katherine H Breen↗

NASA NTRS2023

Is the Global MHD Modeling of the Magnetosphere Adequate for GIC Prediction: the May 27–28, 2017 Storm

Practical steps taken by the international community to reduce the damage to technological systems from space weather include the development of numerical models capable of real-time predictions of electromagnetic disturbances at the Earth’s surface. Here we examine the feasibility of a version of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) global MHD simulation code similar to that used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to predict the level of geomagnetic field variability, and consequently geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). We consider the contribution of geomagnetic disturbances to the bursts of GIC in the electric power line of the Kola Peninsula during the May 27–28, 2017 storm and compare the observations with results of the global MHD model. During the maximal disturbance magnetic field variations at East Scandinavian stations become more irregular, as intense Pi3 pulsations are superposed on the magnetic bay. These pulsations are not quasi-sinusoidal waves like typical Pc5 pulsations, but they are rather a quasi-periodic sequence of magnetic impulses with time scales ~5–15 min. During this period with elevated Pi3 activity very high values of GIC were recorded (variations >100 A) in the electric power transmission line. The SWMF modeling reasonably well reproduces the global magnetospheric parameters, such as SYM-H index or cross-polar potential. However, the magnetic field variability dB/dt in the East Scandinavia predicted by the modeling has turned out to be more than order of magnitude less than that observed. Thus, the version of SWMF with the grid used by NOAA SWPC still cannot adequately predict for the May 27–28 event the fine structure of the storm/substorm—Pi3 geomagnetic disturbances, and consequently the magnitude of the GIC that they drive.

geomagnetically induced currents↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward NASA/GMAO Coupled Data Assimilation Using JEDI

NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is establishing coupled Earth system capabilities using the Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework, developed in collaboration with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation(JCSDA). Marine and atmospheric components will utilize a weakly-coupled data assimilation approach. The implementation of the sea-ice, ocean, and coupled analysis (SOCA) component of JEDI is highlighted here, while parallel work on atmospheric data assimilation is also in progress. Improvements to the ocean data assimilation system (ODAS) include: 1) adopting the JEDI framework, 2) a new coupled GCM, and 3) incorporation of new observation sources.

Dorukhan Ardağ↗

NASA NTRS2022

Diagnosing Challenges and Setting Priorities for Sustainable Water Resource Management Under Climate Change

Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty. We demonstrate an integrated approach to exploring these issues through the lens of a social-ecological system, combining remote and in-situ earth observations, hydrologic and climate models, and social surveys. Specifically, we examine how climate change and dam development could impact the Se Kong, Se San and Sre Pok rivers in the Mekong region. We find that climate change will lead to increased precipitation, necessitating a shift in dam operations, from maintaining low flows to reducing flood hazards. We also find that existing water governance systems in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are ill-prepared to address the problem. We conclude that the solution space for addressing these complex issues will be highly constrained unless major deficiencies in transboundary water governance, strategic planning, financial capacity, information sharing, and law enforcement are remedied in the next decades.

Ibrahim Nourein Mohammed↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach for the Generation of Reduced Thermal Models

Reduced thermal models are often required for delivery to organizations that manage observatory or launch models at the highest levels of assembly. However, the effort to generate reduced models, and verify against their detailed counterparts, is a challenge that has not yet been conclusively solved. Higher level organizations often place a limit on the number of nodes for delivered models with the assumption that smaller models generally result in less computation time. However, the burden of producing and verifying the accuracy of the reduced models is placed primarily on the lower-level organizations, which in turn consumes resources needed to produce these models. Limiting the total number of allowable nodes may also prevent users from taking full advantage of software capabilities that allow for faster generation of models, such as finite elements, which generally require more nodes than older centroid based models. A methodology using Thermal Desktop was described in 2010 which used: (1) finite elements and edge nodes for a conduction matrix, (2) centroid nodes for capacitance and radiative computations, and (3) the super network feature to produce a conduction matrix based only on the centroid nodes. At that time, the methodology was clear, but the implementation would have had to be done manually; however, with the inclusion of the OpenTD Application Programming Interface, this methodology can now be implemented programmatically and for the first time, be a viable approach for the generation of reduced models. The approach was implemented and developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) payload on the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) as part of the Mars Sample Return mission, resulting in the TCYEE tool. ERO features a spacecraft bus provided by Airbus through the European Space Agency with node limitations on the delivered CCRS model provided by GSFC. TCYEE was used to generate the reduced model for this delivery and the predictions compared favorably to the detailed model currently in use for the thermal performance evaluation. Furthermore, TCYEE is being explored for potential use on the Roman Space Telescope (RST) for the generation of reduced models for delivery to the launch provider, which also has node limit requirements on the RST observatory model for use in launch simulation analyses. This paper describes the methodology, its implementation, and compares the performance of reduced models generated by TCYEE to their detailed counterparts.

Thermal Desktop↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach for the Generation of Reduced Thermal Models

Reduced thermal models are often required for delivery to organizations that manage observatory or launch models at the highest levels of assembly. However, the effort to generate reduced models, and verify against their detailed counterparts, is a challenge that has not yet been conclusively solved. Higher level organizations often place a limit on the number of nodes for delivered models with the assumption that smaller models generally result in less computation time. However, the burden of producing and verifying the accuracy of the reduced models is placed primarily on the lower-level organizations, which in turn consumes resources needed to produce these models. Limiting the total number of allowable nodes may also prevent users from taking full advantage of software capabilities that allow for faster generation of models, such as finite elements, which generally require more nodes than older centroid based models. A methodology using Thermal Desktop was described in 2010 which used: (1) finite elements and edge nodes for a conduction matrix, (2) centroid nodes for capacitance and radiative computations, and (3) the super network feature to produce a conduction matrix based only on the centroid nodes. At that time, the methodology was clear, but the implementation would have had to be done manually; however, with the inclusion of the OpenTD API, this methodology can now be implemented programmatically and for the first time, be a viable approach for the generation of reduced models. The approach was implemented and developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) payload on the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) as part of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, resulting in the TCYEE tool. ERO features a spacecraft bus provided by Airbus through the European Space Agency (ESA) with node limitations on the delivered CCRS model provided by GSFC. TCYEE was used to generate the reduced model for this delivery and the predictions compared favorably to the detailed model currently in use for the thermal performance evaluation. Furthermore, TCYEE is being explored for potential use on the Roman Space Telescope (RST) for the generation of reduced models for delivery to the launch provider, which also has node limit requirements on the RST observatory model for use in launch simulation analyses. This paper describes the methodology, its implementation, and compares the performance of reduced models generated by TCYEE to their detailed counterparts.

Hume L. Peabody↗