Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “EXPECTATION VALUE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating Operational Uncertainties into the Dispatch of an Integrated Solar and Storage System

The economic assessment of hybrid energy systems (HES) pairing battery energy storage systems (BESSs) and photovoltaics (PV) is highly important for advancing their deployment in power systems. This paper presents an innovative assessment framework, including an optimal control policy for dispatch under uncertainty and procedures for exploring control parameters that maximize economic benefits. The proposed dispatch policy consists of two steps using system forecast information. The first step is to determine whether a BESS will be used within an operational scheduling time frame based on the probability of events and their thresholds. Once the dispatch of BESS is triggered, a model predictive control (MPC) is carried out in the second step for scheduling using the expected value of system information. By exercising this policy with different thresholds, one can explore the trade-offs between short-term benefits and battery lifetime, and identify an optimal threshold that maximizes the total economic benefits within the battery lifetime. An evaluation study in a real-world HES project is presented to illustrate the proposed framework. Compared with traditional optimal dispatch algorithms, the proposed method can significantly improve the economic benefits of an HES scheduled under forecast uncertainties.

Ma, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Allocation and Operation of A Hydropneumatic Energy Storage with Building Microgrid

Behind-meter application for a recently invented hydropneumatic Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) is focused in this research. Considering possible uncertainties from solar radiation and electricity load in a building microgrid, two-stage stochastic programming is adopted for 15-min operation and a mixed-integer nonlinear stochastic model is built with integrated energy systems of GLIDES, solar panel and power generating unit. In order to make the model computationally tractable, we use sample average approximate method to decrease associated complexity with sample size and improve solving efficiency. The experimental results in deterministic and stochastic operation indicate that best candidate solution from SAA are superior to the solution from expected value problem in terms of optimality gap and variance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Noisy Variational Quantum Eigensolver Ansatz Circuits

This is a case study of the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) method using numerical simulations to test the influence of noise on the accuracy of the underlying circuit ansatz. We investigate a computational chemistry application of VQE to calculate the electronic ground state and its energy for Sodium Hydride (NaH), a prototypical two-electron problem. Using a one-parameter ansatz derived from unitary coupled cluster (UCC) theory, we simulate the effects of noise on the energy expectation value and variance with respect to the ansatz parameter. These numerical simulations provide insights into the accuracy of the prepared quantum state and the efficiency of the classical optimizer that iteratively refines the ansatz. We conduct a comparative study between analytical results derived for the UCC ansatz in the absence of noise and the noisy numerical simulation results obtained using an isotropic depolarizing noise model for each gate. We also compare the relative increase in noise on logically equivalent UCC ansatz circuits generated by randomized compiling. Notably, we observe that the intrinsic variance in the energy due to the simplicity of the ansatz itself compares with the noise induced by the bare circuit.

Gowrishankar, Meenambika↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliable Devices Yield Stable Quantum Computations

Stable quantum computation requires noisy results to remain bounded even in the presence of noise fluctuations. Yet non-stationary noise processes lead to drift in the varying characteristics of a quantum device that can greatly influence the circuit outcomes. Here we address how temporal and spatial variations in noise relate device reliability to quantum computing stability. First, our approach quantifies the differences in statistical distributions of characterization metrics collected at different times and locations using Hellinger distance. We then validate an analytical bound that relates this distance directly to the stability of a computed expectation value. Our demonstration uses numerical simulations with models informed by the washington superconducting transmon device. We find that the stability metric is consistently bounded from above by the corresponding Hellinger distance, which can be cast as a specified tolerance level. These results underscore the significance of reliable quantum computing devices and the impact for stable quantum computation.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast and converged classical simulations of evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance

A recent quantum simulation of observables of the kicked Ising model on 127 qubits implemented circuits that exceed the capabilities of exact classical simulation. We show that several approximate classical methods, based on sparse Pauli dynamics and tensor network algorithms, can simulate these observables orders of magnitude faster than the quantum experiment and can also be systematically converged beyond the experimental accuracy. Our most accurate technique combines a mixed Schrödinger and Heisenberg tensor network representation with the Bethe free entropy relation of belief propagation to compute expectation values with an effective wave function–operator sandwich bond dimension >16,000,000, achieving an absolute accuracy, without extrapolation, in the observables of <0.01, which is converged for many practical purposes. We thereby identify inaccuracies in the experimental extrapolations and suggest how future experiments can be implemented to increase the classical hardness.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical interpretation of sterile neutrino oscillation searches at reactors

A considerable experimental effort is currently under way to test the persistent hints for oscillations due to an eV-scale sterile neutrino in the data of various reactor neutrino experiments. The assessment of the statistical significance of these hints is usually based on Wilks’ theorem, whereby the assumption is made that the log-likelihood is χ 2 -distributed. However, it is well known that the preconditions for the validity of Wilks’ theorem are not fulfilled for neutrino oscillation experiments. In this work we derive a simple asymptotic form of the actual distribution of the log-likelihood based on reinterpreting the problem as fitting white Gaussian noise. From this formalism we show that, even in the absence of a sterile neutrino, the expectation value for the maximum likelihood estimate of the mixing angle remains non-zero with attendant large values of the log-likelihood. Our analytical results are then confirmed by numerical simulations of a toy reactor experiment. Finally, we apply this framework to the data of the Neutrino-4 experiment and show that the null hypothesis of no-oscillation is rejected at the 2.6 σ level, compared to 3.2 σ obtained under the assumption that Wilks’ theorem applies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particle physics and cosmology of the string derived no-scale flipped SU(5)

In a recent paper, we identified a cosmological sector of a flipped SU(5) model derived in the free fermionic formulation of the heterotic superstring, containing the inflaton and the goldstino superfields with a superpotential leading to Starobinsky type inflation, while SU(5) × U(1) is still unbroken. Here, we study the properties and phenomenology of the vacuum after the end of inflation, where the gauge group is broken to the Standard Model. We identify a set of vacuum expectation values, triggered by the breaking of an anomalous U(1) A gauge symmetry at roughly an order of magnitude below the string scale, that solve the F and D-flatness supersymmetric conditions up to 6th order in the superpotential which is explicitly computed, leading to a successful particle phenomenology. In particular, all extra colour triplets become superheavy guaranteeing observable proton stability, while the Higgs doublet mass matrix has a massless pair eigenstate with realistic hierarchical Yukawa couplings to quarks and leptons. The supersymmetry breaking scale is constrained to be high, consistent with the non observation of supersymmetry signals at the LHC.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved semiclassical model for real-time evaporation of matrix black holes

In this paper, we study real-time classical matrix mechanics of a simplified 2 × 2 matrix model inspired by the black hole evaporation problem. This is a step towards making a quantitative model of real-time evaporation of a black hole, which is realized as a bound state of D0-branes in string theory. The model we study is the reduction of Yang–Mills in 2 + 1 dimension to 0 + 1 dimensions, which has been corrected with an additional potential that can be interpreted as a zero-point energy for fermions. Our goal is to understand the lifetime of such a classical bound state object in the classical regime. To do so, we pay particular attention to when D-particles separate to check that the “off-diagonal modes” of the matrices become adiabatic and use that information to improve on existing models of evaporation. It turns out that the naive expectation value of the lifetime with the fermionic correction is infinite. This is a logarithmic divergence that arises from very large excursions in the separation between the branes near the threshold for classical evaporation. The adiabatic behavior lets us get some analytic control of the dynamics in this regime to get this estimate. This divergence is cutoff in the quantum theory due to quantization of the adiabatic parameter, resulting in a long lifetime of the bound state, with a parametric dependence of order log(1/ℏ).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

FPDetect: Efficient Reasoning About Stencil Programs Using Selective Direct Evaluation

We present FPDetect, a low-overhead approach for detecting logical errors and soft errors affecting stencil computations without generating false positives. We develop an offline analysis that tightly estimates the number of floating-point bits preserved across stencil applications. This estimate rigorously bounds the values expected in the data space of the computation. Violations of this bound can be attributed with certainty to errors. FPDetect helps synthesize error detectors customized for user-specified levels of accuracy and coverage. FPDetect also enables overhead reduction techniques based on deploying these detectors coarsely in space and time. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Circuit Cutting for Classical Shadows

Classical shadow tomography is a sample-efficient technique for characterizing quantum systems and predicting many of their properties. Circuit cutting is a technique for dividing large quantum circuits into smaller fragments that can be executed more robustly using fewer quantum resources. We introduce a divide-and-conquer circuit cutting method for estimating the expectation values of observables using classical shadows. We derive a general formula for making predictions using the classical shadows of circuit fragments from arbitrarily cut circuits and provide the sample complexity analysis for the case when observables factorize across fragments. Then, we numerically show that our divide-and-conquer method outperforms traditional uncut shadow tomography when estimating high-weight observables that act non-trivially on many qubits and discuss the mechanisms for this advantage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electro–Oxidation of Nitroxide Radicals: Adsorption–Mediated Charge Transfer Probed Using SERS and Potentiometry

Organic compounds containing nitroxide radicals such as 4–hydroxy–2,2,6,6–tetramethylpiperidine–1–oxyl (4–hydroxy–TEMPO) are redox–active and are of interest for potential applications in redox flow batteries. The mechanisms governing charge–transfer reactions of such compounds are not well understood. Specifically, the anodic charge transfer coefficient (αa) corresponding to the electro–oxidation of 4–hydroxy–TEMPO in an aqueous medium is ~0.9, i.e., αa deviates considerably from the expected value (0.5) for a symmetric single–step one–electron transfer redox reaction. In a previous publication (J. Electrochem. Soc., 2020, 167, 143505), we have proposed a reaction mechanism to explain such asymmetric behavior by invoking adsorption–desorption processes. In the proposed mechanism, reversible oxidation of 4–hydroxy–TEMPO leads to the adsorption of the oxidation product, which then undergoes slow rate–limiting desorption from the electrode surface. In the present contribution, supporting evidence is provided for this mechanism. In situ surface–enhanced Raman spectroscopy combined with density functional theory simulations are employed to confirm the presence of surface–adsorbed species at a Au electrode during electro–oxidation of 4–hydroxy–TEMPO. Furthermore, we employ chronopotentiometry to track the gradual re–equilibration of the electrode–electrolyte interface following the electro–oxidation of 4–hydroxy–TEMPO. Analysis of the chronopotentiometry data further suggests the presence of adsorbed species, which were previously proposed and are now confirmed by direct spectroscopic evidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Helium as a Surrogate for Deuterium in LPI Studies

Helium or neopentane can be used as surrogate gas fill for deuterium (D2) or deuterium-tritium (DT) in laser-plasma interaction studies. Surrogates are convenient to avoid flammability hazards or the integration of cryogenics in an experiment. To test the degree of equivalency between deuterium and helium, experiments were conducted in the Pecos target chamber at Sandia National Laboratories. Observables such as laser propagation and signatures of laser-plasma instabilities (LPI) were recorded for multiple laser and target configurations. It was found that some observables can differ significantly despite the apparent similarity of the gases with respect to molecular charge and weight. While a qualitative behaviour of the interaction may very well be studied by finding a suitable compromise of laser absorption, electron density, and LPI cross sections, a quantitative investigation of expected values for deuterium fills at high laser intensities is not likely to succeed with surrogate gases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Stochastic Programming [SWR-26-040]

The Quantum Stochastic Programming tool contains quantum computing algorithms for two-stage stochastic optimization, with a focus on the Unit Commitment (UC) problem in power systems. The algorithms combine Discrete Quantum Annealing (DQA) with Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) to compute expected-value objective functions over a probability distribution of wind-power scenarios. Based on: arXiv 2402.15029 - "Quantum algorithms for the two-stage stochastic unit commitment problem"

Maack, Jonathan [National Laboratory of the Rockie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Round Robin Analysis of Uranium Isotopics on Cotton Swipes Measured Using Microextraction-Based Sampling Versus Conventional Bulk Analysis

A comparison of microextraction sampling methods to directly analyze uranium isotopics on cotton swipes was performed concurrently with traditional bulk-processing methods. For the microextraction sampling approach, two different detection platforms were evaluated, a quadrupole-based inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) and the liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. Results presented from this innovative sampling approach (i.e., microextraction) are compared with a more traditional approach employed for analysis of cotton-based environmental swipes, namely bulk ashing/digestion, separation, and subsequent analysis by high-precision multi-collector ICP-MS. Overall, the microextraction approach proved to be a reliable and accurate means to determine isotopic ratios of uranium collected on cotton swipes. The ICP-MS-based detection had relative standard deviations of <0.65% for the major isotopic determinations, whereas the LS-APGD-Orbitrap method had relative standard deviations of <3%. The percent relative difference for the 235 U/ 238 U ratios, in comparison to the expected values, was <1% for ICP-MS and <4% for the microplasma-Orbitrap method. Additionally, the microextraction ICP-MS accurately (<2%) and precisely (<5%) determined the minor isotopic compositions (i.e., 234 U/ 238 U and 236 U/ 238 U).

ICP-MS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new approach of microbiome monitoring in the built environment: feasibility analysis of condensation capture

Background: Humans emit approximately 30 million microbial cells per hour into their immediate vicinity. However, sampling of aerosolized microbial taxa (aerobiome) remains largely uncharacterized due to the complexity and limitations of sampling techniques, which are highly susceptible to low biomass and rapid sample degradation. Recently, there has been an interest in developing technology that collects naturally occurring water from the atmosphere, even within the built environment. Here, we analyze the feasibility of indoor aerosol condensation collection as a method to capture and analyze the aerobiome. Methods: Aerosols were collected via condensation or active impingement in a laboratory setting over the course of 8 h. Microbial DNA was extracted from collected samples and sequenced (16S rRNA) to analyze microbial diversity and community composition. Dimensional reduction and multivariate statistics were employed to identify significant (p < 0.05) differences in relative abundances of specific microbial taxa observed between the two sampling platforms. Results: Aerosol condensation capture is highly efficient with a yield greater than 95% when compared to expected values. Compared to air impingement, aerosol condensation showed no significant difference (ANOVA, p > 0.05) in microbial diversity. Among identified taxa, Streptophyta and Pseudomonadales comprised approximately 70% of the microbial community composition. Conclusion: The results suggest that condensation of atmospheric humidity is a suitable method for the capture of airborne microbial taxa reflected by microbial community similarity between devices. Future investigation of aerosol condensation may provide insight into the efficacy and viability of this new tool to investigate airborne microorganisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗