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At least 289 records · Page 16

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble simulation data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models trained on ensemble data, we can substitute computationally expensive simulations, which allows users to interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the use of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble data↗

Interdisciplinary Research Collaborative Trains Students to See Through Turbulent Systems

Despite the availability of interdisciplinary academic training programs, the practice of environmental science is often hampered by a lack of convergence across diverse disciplines. This gap is particularly salient in settings characterized by complex environmental issues, such as multiple-use coastal ecosystems. In response, we developed and implemented a training, research, and communication framework to provide undergraduates with an authentic operative experience working at the interface of interdisciplinary science and public decision-making within a case study of marine renewable energy. In our program, students gained hands-on experience with the scientific process and learned how to make information relevant, useful, and accessible to diverse stakeholder groups. Application of this framework demonstrates that the process of integrating data from biological (visual and acoustic monitoring of fish and marine mammals), physical (hydrodynamics), and social (local ecological knowledge) sciences can provide a more complete understanding of complex and turbulent ecosystems for better informed decision-making. We offer several recommendations to facilitate the adaptation and implementation of our interdisciplinary framework to diverse research contexts, with a focus on interdisciplinary training for the next generation of marine scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Kwakkel, Jan H.↗

Integrated Dispatching and Charging Management of an Autonomous Electric Vehicle Ride-Hailing Fleet

Electrification and autonomous driving are two important trends in transportation systems. The convergence of these two technologies will introduce opportunities to improve transportation systems' operation and energy efficiency. One potential application is the commercial ride-hailing fleet with autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs). In order to harvest promising benefits from introducing AEVs into ride-hailing fleets, some unavoidable challenges will need to be resolved to ensure the fleets operates functionally and efficiently. This paper discusses the challenges of dispatching AEVs and their interactions with charging infrastructure. An integrated decision making framework for dispatching and charging has been designed using a system optimization approach to study the AEVs' management within the period when they drop off passengers and pick up the next passengers. Its potential fleet-wide benefits have been illustrated by comparing operations under a heuristic approach. A simulation platform has been designed to test different decision making strategies for the ride-hailing AEV fleets operational performance. Using this platform, detailed case studies have been performed with different fleet sizes, dispatching strategies, and charging infrastructure network settings. Comprehensive analyses from various aspects have been conducted to understand the AEVs' fleet operation performance, (e.g., zero occupancy vehicle miles traveled, successfully served ratio of ride-hailing requests, fleet vehicle charging downtime, and charging infrastructure utilization). Results have provided a deep understandings on operation's dynamics under various fleet system configurations and also have demonstrated advantages of the optimization-based approach for the AEV fleet management. Studies in this paper inform better designs on the future of sophisticated management strategies and charging infrastructure to support ride-hailing AEV fleet operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based intelligent maintenance optimization framework for safety-critical systems

Abstract Maintenance optimization is a process for improving the efficiency of maintenance strategies and activities, considering various aspects of the target system and components, such as the probabilities of system failures and the cost of repair and replacement of a failed component. The improvement of maintenance optimization algorithms generally requires information from various data sources. For example, it may require the system risk information derived from risk analysis tools or the residual lifetime of a component from fault prognosis tools. The requirements of data acquisition (DAQ) and aggregation pose new challenges for maintenance management systems (MMSs) that implement and use these maintenance optimization algorithms. This paper proposes a multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based framework to facilitate DAQ from MMSs, online monitoring systems, fault detection and discrimination tools, risk assessment tools, decision-making tools, and component identification tools, and accelerate the implementation and verification of contemporary maintenance optimization models and algorithms. The proposed framework consists of a multi-aspect maintenance ontology with critical information for maintenance optimization and application interfaces for collecting information from various data sources, such as fault prognosis tools, online monitoring tools, risk assessment tools, and decision-making algorithms. In addition, this paper proposes a heuristic method for integrating concepts and properties from other existing ontologies into the proposed framework when the existing ontology is not fully compatible with the ontology under construction. Finally, the paper verifies the proposed ontology framework using a feedwater system designed for nuclear power plants with valves and filters as the components under maintenance.

Diao, Xiaoxu (ORCID:0000000346726352)↗

Robust Explanations using Diverse Adversarially Trained Ensembles, Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning, and Attribution-based Confidence Metrics

The primary objective of this project is to strengthen the trustworthiness of AI systems by designing algorithms that make their internal decision-making processes more understandable to human users. This involves creating clear, interpretable explanations for AI decisions and developing metrics to assess these explanations' validity and reliability. Significant progress has been achieved through (i) developing symbolic explanations, (ii) generating meaningful interpretive insights, (iii) establishing accuracy and confidence metrics, and (iv) devising methods to evaluate the knowledge boundaries of AI models. To date, the research findings have been shared in peer-reviewed publications, with accompanying scientific and technical information (STI) detailed below.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 3: Community-Guided Energy Equity Strategies

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. Chapters 1 and 2 target the problem space - the causal factors, impact areas, and values affecting LA's energy justice landscape. This chapter threads those themes through to begin focusing on the solution space. We examine community-identified problems and solutions through the lens of recognition and procedural justice, presenting analysis and strategies that form the basis for more equitable outcomes in LA's energy transition. In our listening sessions, underserved Angelenos highlighted the need to transition away from the status quo one participant described as "transactional extraction of information to check the box. To say yes, we engaged." She asked the LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to approach her community with respect and transparency, stating, "We consider you all to be experts in your community, and we'd like to authentically engage with you in the decision-making process. So, I do think there needs to be some intentional actions for that rapport building and that trust building." The community-informed analysis and strategies described in this chapter, which are foundational to the LA100 Equity Strategies project, rise to the challenge of engaging authentically to build rapport, establish relationships of respect, and meaningfully involve Angelenos in the decision-making process. LADWP is already making concerted efforts to redress a disproportionate distribution of investments in physical infrastructure and energy efficient technologies in Los Angeles. This chapter concentrates on the challenge to further rectify past and ongoing inequities in the social, cultural, and institutional scaffolding of Los Angeles. We examine community-guided strategies to tackle this challenge, informed by community input on how all Angelenos can equitably access green jobs and affordable, safe, and resilient energy services, technologies, and programs. These actionable strategies can help move energy equity programs from plans to applied practices, supporting LADWP in launching a just and equitable clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predicting peak day and peak hour of electricity demand with ensemble machine learning

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and reducing uncertainties associated with the forecast in probabilistic risk measures for dispatch decision-making. In this study, we develop a supervised machine learning approach to generate 1) the probability of the next operation day containing the peak hour of the month and 2) the probability of an hour to be the peak hour of the day. Guidance is provided on preparation and augmentation of data as well as selection of machine learning models and decision-making thresholds. The proposed approach is applied to the Duke Energy Progress system and successfully captures 69 peak days out of 72 testing months with a 3% exceedance probability threshold. On 90% of the peak days, the actual peak hour is among the 2 h with the highest probabilities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operational data and uncertainty in evaluation model for abnormal and accident scenarios, the established operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To reduce uncertainty associated with actual plant conditions, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator’s decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. This study first builds a knowledge base based on the characterization of issue space and the simulation tool. Next, this study discusses diagnosis and prognosis DTs for enhancing operational resilience by recovering the complete states of reactors and by predicting the future reactor behaviors. Finally, the decision-making module of the control system can determine the optimal control strategy that meets operational goals during loss-of-flow scenarios. To demonstrate and evaluate the DTs capability for supporting the operations of nuclear reactors, this study develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

COVID-19 Joint Pandemic Modeling and Analysis Platform

The non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19 requires the development of policies and guidance through a collaborative effort among government, academia, medicine, and citizens. To operationalize this effort, we have developed an all-encompassing situational awareness platform that can process multi-modal and multi-source data allowing informed decision making. Besides, showing the current spread of infection, the platform also captures the impact of human dynamics on the infection spread, location, and availability of critical infrastructure, prediction, and high-performance computing driven simulation. The platform is extensible, allowing third-party integration and services to consume the curated data and analytics in near real-time. We believe the platform will augment critical decision making for reducing the impact and spread of the pandemic.

Thakur, Gautam↗

Evaluation of Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation

A digital twin has intelligent modules that continuously monitor the condition of the individual components and the whole of a system. Digital twins can provide nuclear power plants (NPP) operators an unprecedented level of monitoring, control, supervision, and security by contributing a greater volume of data for more comprehensive data analysis and increased accuracy of insights and predictions for decision making throughout the entire NPP lifecycle. NPP operators and managers have historically relied on limited, second hand or incomplete data. With proper implementation, digital twins can provide a central hub of all intel that allows for a multidisciplinary view of an NPP. This equips operators and managers with the ability to have more information, context, and intel that can be used for greater granularity during planning and decision making. Digital twins can be used in many activities as the technology has many different concepts surrounding it. From the various definitions of a digital twin within the industry, digital twins can be differentiated by levels of integration/automation. The three main models include digital model, digital shadow, and digital twin. Digital twins offer many potential advancements to the nuclear industry that could reduce costs, improve designs, provide safer operation, and improve their overall security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Neural Optimizer With Decision-Focused Learning for Optimal Energy Storage Operation

Here, this article introduces a neural optimizer-based framework for optimizing battery energy storage system (BESS) control for grid services, including demand charge and energy cost reduction. By leveraging decision-focused learning (DFL), the proposed framework ensures seamless integration and adaptation, significantly enhancing control performance. A patch time-series transformer is employed for peak load forecasting, incorporating aleatoric uncertainty quantification to account for forecasting uncertainties within the decision-making process. The framework utilizes a solver-in-the-loop approach to generate optimal BESS actions, which are then used to train the neural optimizer-based agent. By co-optimizing both BESS operational modes and output power within the NN, the system achieves improved performance and robustness. After initial training, the forecasting and control models are jointly fine-tuned to account for forecasting errors, further improving decision precision and efficiency through DFL. Case studies are performed to validate the performance of the framework using multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating superior performance in monthly peak load forecasting compared to state-of-the-art models. In addition, the results are compared against existing decision-making approaches. The results demonstrate a reduction in monthly peak forecasting error by approximately 15% across various performance measures and achieve an optimization gap for BESS operation that is about three times smaller compared to existing methods.

Kim, Hyeonjin [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

VA EDH Advanced Software Pipeline Framework Report: Enhancing Automation and Scalability

The VA Environmental Determinants of Health (EDH) Advanced Software Pipeline Framework is designed to enhance the efficiency, scalability, and security of geospatial data processing workflows. This framework integrates modern data orchestration and containerization technologies, including Prefect for workflow automation, Docker for containerization, and PostgreSQL/PostGIS for geospatial data storage and analysis. It ensures standardized, reproducible, and automated data processing, supporting VA objectives related to substance use risk assessment and recovery research. The pipeline addresses key scalability and performance challenges through horizontal and vertical scaling, high-performance computing (HPC) integration, parallel processing, task caching, and dynamic resource allocation. These optimizations improve throughput and reduce latency, allowing the system to efficiently manage large and complex datasets. Additionally, security and compliance measures—such as data encryption (SSL), Role-Based Access Control (RBAC), and adherence to GDPR and HIPAA standards—safeguard sensitive information throughout data transmission and storage. A key implementation of this framework includes the automation of shelter list geolocation workflows, ensuring that up-to-date data is readily available for VA decision-making. Lessons learned from this project include the transition from in-memory processing to incremental storage writes, improving resource management and reliability. Future enhancements aim to expand automation, integrate AI-driven anomaly detection, and incorporate high-performance computing resources. This framework provides a scalable, secure, and adaptable solution for managing geospatial datasets, reinforcing the VA’s ability to support clinical and strategic initiatives through data-driven decision-making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ten questions on building stock modeling to inform energy efficiency and sustainability

To enhance economic competitiveness and ensure energy efficiency, resilience, and security, cities and governments are adopting technologies and strategies to improve their existing building stocks. This approach aims to reduce energy use, improve energy affordability, and ensure a reliable power supply while safeguarding occupants during extreme weather events that may disrupt energy services. The effectiveness of these solutions will depend on building stock characteristics, use patterns, weather conditions, evolving technologies and their markets, and a city’s socio-economic conditions. This paper presents ten questions and answers that highlight the most important issues regarding the use of building stock modeling as a powerful tool to provide insights for informing stakeholders’ actions and decision-making on energy efficiency, costs reduction, and resilience of buildings in cities. Building stock modeling should build upon the fit-for-purpose framework, balancing the use case accuracy requirements, level of complexity, and needed resources (expertise, compute). The advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the increasingly available open dataset of building stock in cities, and the more affordable powerful computing will accelerate the adoption of building stock modeling across scales by researchers and practitioners to inform decision making on sustainability and efficiency.

AI↗

Optimal economic dispatch policy for prosumer with energy storage considering self-consumption demand

This paper analyzed the effects of self-consumption demand on the joint economic dispatch of prosumers (energy consumers who are also producers), particularly for prosumers with both energy storage and distributed energy sources (DERs). Studies in the existing literature on the economic dispatch scheduling policy of energy storage, mostly from the perspective of electricity merchants, do not address the impacts of self-consumption demand. However, due to the intermittent and high levels of uncertainty regarding DERs generation and the dynamic demand of the prosumer, production and consumption are not always simultaneous; there are two possible scenarios in each period depending on whether DERs generation can meet prosumers' self-consumption or not. Incorporating the self-consumption demand will pose modeling challenges since these two scenarios cannot occur simultaneously in each period, and different scenarios require different decisions for prosumers. Further, this paper analyzed the two scenarios separately to find the optimal storage scheduling strategy, and the results were combined to get the optimal global solution. We focused on prosumers' economic decision-making while considering self-consumption demand and the physical constraints of a battery based on dynamic programming. Our study showed that the feasible state of charge (SOC) range of storage can be segmented into several sub-ranges by SOC reference points under the above two scenarios. As a result, a prosumer's optimal scheduling can be uniquely and conveniently selected based on the sub-ranges within which the current SOC falls. The results, therefore, provided multistage decision-making guidance for prosumers with energy storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Foveal vision reduces neural resources in agent-based game learning

Efficient processing of information is crucial for the optimization of neural resources in both biological and artificial visual systems. In this paper, we study the efficiency that may be obtained via the use of a fovea. Using biologically-motivated agents, we study visual information processing, learning, and decision making in a controlled artificial environment, namely the Atari Pong video game. We compare the resources necessary to play Pong between agents with and without a fovea. Our study shows that a fovea can significantly reduce the neural resources, in the form of number of neurons, number of synapses, and number of computations, while at the same time maintaining performance at playing Pong. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which an agent must simultaneously optimize its visual system, along with its decision making and action generation capabilities. That is, the visual system is integral to a complete agent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Increasing the Reproducibility and Replicability of Supervised AI/ML in the Earth Systems Science by Leveraging Social Science Methods

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) pose a challenge for achieving science that is both reproducible and replicable. The challenge is compounded in supervised models that depend on manually labeled training data, as they introduce additional decision-making and processes that require thorough documentation and reporting. We address these limitations by providing an approach to hand labeling training data for supervised ML that integrates quantitative content analysis (QCA)—a method from social science research. The QCA approach provides a rigorous and well-documented hand labeling procedure to improve the replicability and reproducibility of supervised ML applications in Earth systems science (ESS), as well as the ability to evaluate them. Specifically, the approach requires (a) the articulation and documentation of the exact decision-making process used for assigning hand labels in a “codebook” and (b) an empirical evaluation of the reliability” of the hand labelers. In this paper, we outline the contributions of QCA to the field, along with an overview of the general approach. We then provide a case study to further demonstrate how this framework has and can be applied when developing supervised ML models for applications in ESS. With this approach, we provide an actionable path forward for addressing ethical considerations and goals outlined by recent AGU work on ML ethics in ESS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗