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DOE OSTI2024

Review of Feasibility and Cost Drivers for Floating Offshore Wind Energy in Washington State

The state of Washington must double its clean electricity supply by 2050 to meet its clean energy goals and comply with the Clean Energy Transformation Act. With more than 6.6 GW of technical resource potential in federal waters where Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has leasing authority, offshore wind energy could play an important role in diversifying Washington State's clean energy mix, reducing dependence on out-of-state energy sources, and helping meet state decarbonization goals. Decision makers need technology-specific information to assist with long-term energy system planning, so the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provide an overview of several drivers of offshore wind energy feasibility and cost in Washington. This study summarizes some of the existing engagement efforts and perspectives on offshore wind energy in the region and quantifies the offshore wind resources in Washington as well as technology costs and performance of potential projects. Furthermore, this report reviews existing grid and port infrastructure and discusses infrastructure needs along with information gaps. This study also explores opportunities and barriers to Washington entities supporting the broader floating offshore wind energy supply chain along the U.S. West Coast. Note that this study is not part of a formal project planning process or official engagement effort, nor does it assess environmental or economic impacts from potential offshore wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and West Virginia University Research Corporation

The National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) will collaborate with West Virginia University to develop and demonstrate a dynamically operated modular, microwave-enhanced catalytic process for the co-production of ammonia and olefins. Ammonia and olefins (e.g., ethylene) are the most widely produced chemicals in the U.S. by volume, but their processes are also the most carbon and energy intensive as they rely on fossil-based feedstocks and combustion of fossil fuels for heating. The project will leverage the unique ability of microwaves to intensify process heating by providing pulsed, targeted energy to active sites of a mixed catalyst bed to convert a mixture of CH 4 /N 2 into ethylene and ammonia. The collaboration will facilitate the development of microwave technology that has the potential to utilize distributed waste resources like shale gas or biogas as well as renewable electricity to produce these valuable chemicals. It is expected that the results will decarbonize chemical production by using renewable energy and waste feedstocks, improve efficiency by reducing unit operations (H 2 production), and de-risk microwave technology for chemical production by demonstrating long-term and dynamic operability. This project was funded by an award from the Department of Energy’s EERE IEDO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

A comparative techno-economic analysis of renewable methanol synthesis from biomass and CO 2 : Opportunities and barriers to commercialization

Global demand for methanol as both a chemical precursor and a fuel additive is rising. At the same time, numerous renewable methanol production pathways are under development, which, if commercialized, could provide significant environmental benefits over traditional methanol synthesis pathways. However, it is difficult to compare technologies at different maturity levels, with differing feedstocks, and with significant differences in overall process design. Thus, there is a need to harmonize the analyses of renewable pathways using a consistent techno-economic approach to evaluate the potential for commercialization of various pathways. This analysis uses a novel cross-comparison method to assess near-term and long-term viability of both low- and high-maturity level technologies. Furthermore, the techno-economic assessment considers cost factors critical to market acceptance combined with carbon- and energy-efficiency assessments of three renewable pathways compared with a commercial baseline. We find that biomass gasification to methanol represents a near-term viable pathway with a high technology readiness level and commercially competitive market price. If cost-reducing technological improvements can be realized and scaled up in the CO 2 electrolysis pathways, the potential for higher carbon efficiencies may help drive market adoption of these more modular, direct conversion pathways in future markets as they present an opportunity to better support global decarbonization efforts through efficient waste carbon utilization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leadership and Community Engagement in Chile: Deploying Net-Zero Technologies and Solutions

The report presents the 2023 Net Zero World Chile program results from activities of the the four program workstreams: 1) energy-system wide modeling LEAP modeling and analysis results including accelerated Net Zero scenarios with aggressive energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and electrification across demand sector; 2) district energy chapter provides thermal district energy systems modeling results of the Recoleta-Independencia pilot project and comparative analysis of district energy systems' potential versus competing technologies in Chile; 3) just transition action steps for the creation of a sister city relationship between Tocopilla and a US counterpart city; and 4) power decarbonization capacity building activities focused on the selection and adoption of grid-enhancing technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Prototypical District-Scale Models

The U.S. has set the climate goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. District-scale solutions, which include scale-specific opportunities for energy and emissions savings, can be investigated and implemented to help accelerate decarbonization and progress toward this goal. However, there is currently a lack of district-scale models of buildings and community energy systems that can be used to evaluate potential district-scale technologies and strategies across a range of representative community types. This initial work aims to define and develop prototype district models that can be adapted to support the planning, design, and operation of buildings and energy systems in districts considering the complexity and interactions of diverse building loads, weather impacts, distributed energy resources (e.g., PV, EV, electric and thermal energy storage), electric and thermal grid systems, and pricing signals. An overall workflow for developing these prototype district models is established. Stakeholders and potential users of the prototype district models provided technical feedback. The specifications of the selected high priority districts were defined and documented in a scorecard format. An example prototype district model was implemented with the URBANopt platform workflows. A case study was performed to demonstrate the model application.

building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Prototypical District-Scale Models: Preprint

The U.S. has set the climate goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. District-scale solutions, which include scale-specific opportunities for energy and emissions savings, can be investigated and implemented to help accelerate decarbonization and progress toward this goal. However, there is currently a lack of district-scale models of buildings and community energy systems that can be used to evaluate potential district-scale technologies and strategies across a range of representative community types. This initial work aims to define and develop prototype district models that can be adapted to support the planning, design, and operation of buildings and energy systems in districts considering the complexity and interactions of diverse building loads, weather impacts, distributed energy resources (e.g., PV, EV, electric and thermal energy storage), electric and thermal grid systems, and pricing signals. An overall workflow for developing these prototype district models is established. Stakeholders and potential users of the prototype district models provided technical feedback. The specifications of the selected high priority districts were defined and documented in a scorecard format. An example prototype district model was implemented with the URBANoptTM platform workflows. A case study was performed to demonstrate the model application.

district↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic analysis of synthetic fuel production from existing nuclear power plants across the United States

Abstract Low carbon synfuel can reduce dependence on fossil fuels like diesel and jet fuel, and, with large-scale cost-effective production, contribute to global transportation sector decarbonization, Simultaneously, nuclear power plants are struggling economically due to falling wholesale electricity prices. Converting existing nuclear plants for synfuel production could preserve these low-carbon assets and enable large-scale synfuel production, yet no comprehensive technoeconomic analysis exists. This study evaluates the potential of integrating synthetic fuel production with five US nuclear plants, considering electricity and fuel markets and carbon dioxide source access. Such integration could enhance nuclear plant profitability by up to $792 million and offer a 10% return on investment over 20 years. The hydrogen production tax credit from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act is crucial, comprising 75% of revenues on average. Carbon feedstock transportation has the highest cost at 35%, followed closely by synfuel production capital costs. Incentive policies are thus key for the decarbonization of the transportation sector and the economic importance of the geographic location of Integrated Energy Systems.

Garrouste, Marisol (ORCID:0000000168388644)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dehydroxylation kinetics of kaolinite and montmorillonite examined using isoconversional methods

The use of calcined clays as supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) in concrete is a promising strategy towards decarbonizing the cement and concrete industry. This is especially relevant considering the ever-increasing demand for concrete. Comprehensive understanding of the kinetics of calcination is essential towards maximizing the potential reactivity of clay minerals while ensuring energy efficiency. In this study, the kinetics of the dehydroxylation of kaolinite and montmorillonite are investigated under non-isothermal conditions at constant heating rate. Activation energies ( E a ) are determined via Friedman differential and advanced Vyazovkin incremental methods over the isoconversional range; these are devoid of computational approximations, thus allowing kinetic analysis without assuming a specific reaction model. Kinetic equations—in the differential form as well as a combination of differential and integral forms are compared against the experimentally determined reaction models to identify the most probable dehydroxylation mechanism for kaolinite and montmorillonite. A reaction order mechanism is established for dehydroxylation of kaolinite, while montmorillonite is noted to undergo dehydroxylation via a single-step reversible diffusion-controlled process. Kinetic triplet—comprising activation energy, reaction model and pre-exponential factor—is used to predict isothermal calcination conditions, which is further verified using analytical techniques. Heat release rates of clay-portlandite blends from isothermal calorimetry are used within a thermodynamic framework to quantify reactivity of the calcined clays. Here, the study demonstrates a general approach based on isoconversional methods to predict calcination conditions for different clays that can be used in efficient and optimized production of blended cements or SCMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cybersecurity Assessment in DER-rich Distribution Operations: Criticality Levels and Impact Analysis

The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks has become a pivotal strategy for achieving decarbonization, enhancing grid resilience, and optimizing grid efficiency. Remote monitoring and control op- erations of such resources rely on a network of sensors and communication infrastructure, exposing the system to potential cyber threats. Therefore, as the deployment of DERs increases, ensuring secure monitoring and control becomes an imperative challenge. This paper utilizes real-time feeder models, which are instrumental in developing cybersecurity testbeds tailored for hardware-in-loop (HIL) systems. These models enable users to simulate cyber attacks in a real-world environment and analyze the power distribution operations during vulnerabilities. Furthermore, we discuss several practical sets of grid parameters to identify critical levels of DERs and evaluate various scenarios that simulate cyber threats on sensitive DERs. The modified IEEE 123-bus model is used as the test case for demonstrating the proposed scenarios. The findings from this study provide valuable insights into the vulnerabilities and potential consequences of cyber attacks on DERs, allowing for better mitigation strategies and improved cyber resilience in future distribution networks.

Maharjan, Manisha↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region

The presentation, delivered at the 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting held in Pittsburgh, PA (August 15 – 19, 2022), provides a detailed perspective on CO2 utilization and storage as a deep decarbonization pathway as it relates to states that make up the Intermountain West (I-WEST) region of the U.S. Content within shows findings from evaluation of the opportunity and potential value delivery that exists for CCUS to deploy at significant scale in the I-WEST region considering the region’s prominent enabling factors. This work is part of a larger initiative involving the development of a regional, stakeholder-informed technology “roadmap” for a sustainable and equitable transition to carbon neutral in the I-WEST.

Vikara, Derek↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West

The presentation, delivered at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon, Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) held in Houston, Texas, April 25–27, 2023, provides a detailed perspective on CO2 utilization and storage as a deep decarbonization pathway as it relates to states that make up the Intermountain West (I-WEST) region of the U.S. Content within shows findings from evaluation of the opportunity and potential value delivery that exists for CCUS to deploy at significant scale in the I-WEST region considering the region’s prominent enabling factors. This work is part of a larger initiative involving the development of a regional, stakeholder-informed technology “roadmap” for a sustainable and equitable transition to carbon neutral in the I-WEST.

Vikara, Derek↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generative AI for Power Grid Operations

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has captured into the mainstream, demonstrating capabilities that once belonged solely to the realm of human cognition. From defeating world champions in complex games to generating human-quality text and images, Generative AI has proven its potential to revolutionize countless industries. The electric power grid is no exception. Generative AI's ability to process vast amounts of data rapidly, assist decision support and identify patterns could significantly enhance power grid operations. For example, Generative AI could improve state estimation where measurements are not available or integrate renewable energy sources more efficiently with probabilistic forecasting. The key contributions of this whitepaper are outlined below: (1) Comprehensive overview of Generative AI's applications in power grid operations: It highlights the opportunities in areas such as forecasting, state estimation, and demonstrating the potential for enhancing efficiency, reliability, and resilience. (2) Expanding Generative AI's impact through synergies with emerging technologies: The paper introduce NREL developed eGridGPT and explores how AI orchestration, multi-agent systems, and Digital Twins can collaborate to optimize grid operations, addressing the complexities of a decarbonized and electrified future. (3) In-depth analysis of challenges in implementing Generative AI: This includes considerations like data availability and quality, model validation, certification, and ethical concerns, ensuring responsible AI deployment. (4) Emphasizing human-AI collaboration: The whitepaper underscores the importance of trustworthy, transparency, and explainability in AI systems to promote seamless interaction between human operators and AI, ultimately improving decision-making. (5) Exploring future research and development: It identifies critical areas for further advancement to fully realize Generative AI's potential in power grid operations. This whitepaper serves as a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers looking to harness Generative AI for a more reliable, stable, and cost-effective power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of heat pump technologies for high-temperature applications above 250 °C

This paper examines heat pump (HP) technologies to achieve heat supply temperatures above 250 °C, referred to as ultra-high-temperature heat pump (UHTHP). UHTHP, as a low-carbon heat delivery and heat augmentation technology, can offer an alternative to traditional combustion heating for decarbonizing high-temperature industrial processes. However, the heat supply temperature of over 250 °C surpasses the temperature range typically covered in the high-temperature HP literature and existing capabilities of commercial HP systems. This paper reviews HP technologies with the potential to evolve into UHTHP. Additionally, UHTHP studies in the literature are analyzed to compare the pros, cons, and technical potentials of various HPs using different thermodynamic cycles and fluids. Furthermore, we then pinpoint the technical gaps and challenges that have hindered widespread adoption of UHTHP in industry, explore potential improvements and solutions, and discuss the feasibility. Current efforts aim to lay the ground for future research, development, and commercial deployment for UHTHP.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of thermal energy storage with electrified heating and cooling in a cold climate

Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been shown to be an effective means of decarbonizing building heating and cooling, but the operation of these systems at scale presents challenges to sites and the grid due to increases in peak demand. Here, in this study, we investigate how the use of Thermal Energy Storage (TES), in the form of stratified water storage, could reduce the peak daily demand associated with GSHP systems and thus improve their cost effectiveness. This system was compared to a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant, to investigate the potential cost and emissions impacts of electrification on large energy users transitioning from high efficiency fossil fuel equipment. This study builds on previous research by using a significant campus area, and investigating the various impacts of an electrified system versus a state of the art fossil fuel system. An established method of TRNSYS modeling is used for the heat pumps and borehole heat exchangers (BHEs), along with the TES. The GSHP system with TES is modeled to follow industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Costs were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure, as well as for a more common generalized rate structure. The results show that the addition of TES to the GSHP system could reduce operating costs by 4.5%, but still incurs a 5.64% cost increase from the baseline CHP system. It is also shown, however, that a tactical integration of heat pumps into the CHP system is the most cost effective solution, only increasing the operating costs by 4.71%. Likewise, the impacts of different rate structures are highlighted, with the TES only resulting in 0.75% cost savings under the generalized utility rate. Furthermore, it is shown that thermal storage has great potential for demand reduction, with the addition of storage incurring a decrease of 7–22% in annual peak demand kW, dependent on the rate structure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is supporting the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multi-faceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) technologies into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource datasets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. This project is focused on collecting baseline datasets, updating conceptual models, and creating Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) workflows for low-temperature (<150 degrees Celsius) geothermal resources of different geothermal play types (i.e., sedimentary basin, orogenic belts, and radiogenic geothermal play types) that could be used for geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), combined heat and power (CHP), and other geothermal direct uses (GDU) applications. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs - natural or engineered - with temperatures <150 degrees Celsius. While the focus in the NREL effort is on GHC, resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. This project does not include Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) technologies because they can be effectively developed almost anywhere. Low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher- to medium-temperature geothermal resources, but there is recent interest in improving understanding of these types of resources with an uptick of interest in geothermal technologies for decarbonizing heating and cooling systems. In addition, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and other emerging technologies for exploiting petrothermal resources have opened the possibility of utilizing deep sedimentary basin systems, where porous media provide permeability and high temperatures can be reached at great depths. This project takes the approach of classifying low- temperature geothermal resources by geothermal play type (GPT). We defined and characterized three major classes of low-temperature GPT: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We develop methodologies for evaluating and analyzing the potential for these resources building off the PFA approach to de-risking geothermal exploration and characterization. The proposed PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: 1) identifying relevant data (e.g., datasets such bottom-hole temperatures from oil and gas wells, heat flow data, Quaternary faults and stress field data, geophysical data, etc.); 2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, and economic criteria); 3) uncertainty quantification; 4) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and 5) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool (RSAT). This project should facilitate future deployment of GHC, CHP, and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources. Increased deployment of GHC and GDU will help achieve national and local decarbonization goals.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗