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DOE OSTI2026

ComStock Measure Documentation: Variable-Speed Pumps

Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models, this work produces national data sets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The "baseline" model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass adoption impact on the baseline building stock. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public data sets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario - variable speed pumps - and briefly introduces key results. The full public data set can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nlr.gov. The public data set enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

IntraShuffler: A Privacy Preserving Framework for Heterogeneous DP Federated Learning

Heterogeneous Differential Privacy (HDP) in Federated Learning (FL) allows clients to select individual privacy budgets () according to institutional policies and data sensitivity. In practice, many HDP-FL systems employ -aware server aggregation to improve model utility by re-weighting client updates according to their declared privacy budgets. However, gradient updates in FL retain structural patterns induced by non-independent and identically-distributed (non-IID) data, and these additional signals exposed by -aware aggregation create new opportunities for inference by an honest-but-curious server. In this work, we first show that a server equipped with gradient denoising and surrogate modeling can mount a Privacy Inference Attack that infers distributional attributes of clients and links updates from the same client across training rounds, measured via surrogate inference accuracy and linkage success, under realistic knowledge constraints. The Shuffle-Model has been widely studied as a defense against such inference risks by anonymizing update sources, but it is fundamentally incompatible with HDP-FL -aware aggregation. To address this challenge, we propose IntraShuffler, a middleware defense framework designed for HDP-FL systems. IntraShuffler introduces a privacy-aware shuffling mechanism that groups clients into privacy-compatible buckets and performs parameter-level shuffling within each bucket to disrupt persistent gradient structure while preserving -aware aggregation. Experiments across four different datasets show that IntraShuffler reduces gradient recoverability by over 60% and decreases surrogate inference accuracy from 0.78 to 0.33 while maintaining comparable model utility across multiple FL aggregation rules.

Riya, Farhin Farhad [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Front-of-Meter Model Results

These files contains aggregations of key variables from the NREL Distributed Wind Futures Study using full parcel level data. These variables describe total technical and economic potential for distributed wind turbine deployment. Aggregations are available at the (1) county, (2) zipcode (zip code tabulation area or zcta), and (3) US Census block group level. Each scenario is coded with the scenario name (e.g., baseline) and year (e.g., 2022). Those files postfixed with 'econpot' contain results for only those parcels that are economically viable while the files postfixed with 'techpot' include results for all parcels that are technically feasible. Hence these correspond to technoeconomic and technical potential respectively. The data are available as CSV or Geopackage. Columns in the files are as follows: * geoid: geographic identifier (FIPS code or similar) * min_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW using turbines downsized to demand when appropriate * max_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW without downsizing turbines * aep_sum_kwh: annual energy production estimate in kWh * cf_mean_ratio: mean capacity factor * lcoe_mean_cents_per_kwh: mean levelized cost of energy for parcels in geography in cents per kWh * lcoe_std_cents_per_kwh: standard deviation of the above * parcel_area_sum_acres: total area of viable parcels in acres * n_turbines: number of cited turbines (one per viable parcel currently) Note: These are preliminary results from the full-parcel 2024 update of the Distributed Wind Energy Futures study. Please take care when making use of the data, and feel free to contact the team with any questions. Full documentation in support of these data is in progress and will follow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behind-the-Meter Model Results

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Individual Data Sparsity in Smart Thermostat Big Data: Impacts on Modeling Thermostat Use Behavior Dynamics

This study explores the impacts of the sparsity of individual thermostat interaction data on modeling thermostat use behavior dynamics using a dataset of over 100,000 smart thermostats. In developing a data-driven model of Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), we investigate the challenges and trade-offs in clustering occupant data to enhance predictive accuracy. Our findings reveal that a single, aggregated model fails to capture the diversity of occupant behaviors, resulting in extremely poor prediction performance. Conversely, excessive clustering exacerbates data sparsity, undermining model reliability. By identifying an optimal clustering strategy, we achieve a balance that significantly improves the prediction of manual setpoint changes during demand response (DR) events, enhancing energy management and occupant comfort

Fannon, David↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Reference Database for Beta-Delayed Neutron Emission

Beta-delayed neutron emission is important for nuclear structure and astrophysics as well as for reactor applications. Significant advances in nuclear experimental techniques in the past two decades have led to a wealth of new measurements that remain to be incorporated in the databases. In this work, we report on a coordinated effort to compile and evaluate all the available β-delayed neutron emission data. The different measurement techniques have been assessed and the data have been compared with semi-microscopic and microscopic-macroscopic models. The new microscopic database has been tested against aggregate total delayed neutron yields, time-dependent group parameters in 6-and 8-group re-presentation, and aggregate delayed neutron spectra. New recommendations of macroscopic delayed-neutron data for fissile materials of interest to applications are also presented. The new Reference Database for Beta-Delayed Neutron Emission Data is available online.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data on temporal complementarity of hybrid renewable energy systems [SWR-23-09]

These datasets describe multiple facets of the temporal complementarity of co-located hybrid renewable energy systems throughout the United States. Several metrics characterizing the complementarity of generation profiles are provided on an annual and monthly basis (for both hourly and daily aggregations). These generation profiles are underpinned by hourly resource data (e.g., the WIND Toolkit and National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)) spanning the multi-year period 2007-2013. The data include complementarity results for greater than 1.76 million individual locations within the continental United States (CONUS). The data are intended to accompany two publications on the topic of temporal complementarity: 1) Harrison-Atlas, Dylan, Caitlin Murphy, Anna Schleifer, and Nicholas Grue. "Temporal complementarity and value of wind-PV hybrid systems across the United States." Renewable Energy 201 (2022): 111-123, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.10.060; and 2) Murphy, Caitlin, Harrison-Atlas, Dylan, Nicholas Grue, Vahan Gevorgian, Juan Gallego-Calderon, Shiloh Elliot and Thomas Mosier. “A Resource Assessment for FlexPower”. NREL Technical Report.

Harrison-Atlas, Dylan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Supporting Data for "Hybrid Geothermal-Wind Integration in the U.S. Energy Grid" by Sinnott, Miller, & Krishnamurthy (2026)

This dataset contains an aggregated and processed version of U.S. (CONUS) wind farm generation rates (~2001-2024, depending on data availability), as well as co-located subsurface estimates for each wind farm location in the Enhanced Geothermal System data from Aljubran & Horne (2024).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Sediment Settling Velocities from a Theoretically Guided Data-Driven Approach

Sediment settling velocities are commonly estimated from analytical or process-based approaches. These approaches have theoretical constraints due to the incompletely resolved settling physics. A parametric data-driven approach was recently proposed without theoretical constraints, but it is limited by its mathematical assumptions. To overcome these limitations, here we apply a machine learning algorithm to an aggregated sediment settling experimental database and develops a nonparametric data-driven model to estimate the noncohesive sediment settling velocity in water. A cross-comparison against five process-based equations and a parametric data-driven equation demonstrates the higher accuracy and better consistency of the new model in estimating sediment settling velocities under various physical regimes. The new model also shows an easily implemented self-update capability by assimilating theoretical data derived from the process-based equations. The updated model, incorporating experimental and theoretical data of sediment settling processes, further improves the accuracy and reduces the uncertainty in estimating sediment settling velocities. This study demonstrates the capability of machine learning in sediment transport study and illustrates an alternative framework for other hydraulic engineering challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Step-Down Test Procedure for Wavelet Shrinkage Using Bootstrapping

Wavelet thresholding (or shrinkage) attempts to remove the noises existing in the signals while preserving inherent pattern characteristics in the reconstruction of true signals. For data-denoising purpose, we present a new wavelet thresholding procedure which employs the step-down testing idea of identifying active contrasts in unreplicated fractional factorial experiments. The proposed method employs bootstrapping methods to a step-down test for thresholding wavelet coefficients. By introducing the concept of a false discovery error rate in testing wavelet coefficients, we shrink the wavelet coefficients with p -values higher than the error rate. The error rate controls the expected proportion of wrongly accepted coefficients among chosen wavelet coefficients. Bootstrap samples are used to approximate the p -value for computational efficiency. We also present some guidelines for selecting the values of hyper-parameters which affect the performance in the step-down thresholding procedure. Based on some common testing signals and an air-conditioner sounds example, the comparison of our proposed procedure with other thresholding methods in the literature is performed. The analytical results show that the proposed procedure has a potential in data-denoising and data-reduction in a variety of signal reconstruction applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ion-Specific Effects on PuO 2 Nanoparticle Aggregation and Dissolution in Concentrated Electrolytes

Hydrolytic PuO 2 nanoparticles (NPs) are a dominant aqueous Pu-bearing phase in high ionic strength nuclear wastes, yet their reactivity in nonideal brines remains poorly constrained. We quantify how electrolyte identity and concentration control PuO 2 NP aggregation and ligand-assisted dissolution in acidic, high salinity solutions (NaCl, NaNO 3 , NaClO 4 , Na 2 SO 4 , Na 2 C 2 O 4 up to 5 M). A multitechnique workflow combining liquid scintillation counting (operationally defined aqueous [Pu]), scattering/electrokinetic measurements (aggregate size and zeta potential), and spectroscopy (UV–vis, XPS, Raman) resolves electrolyte-dependent partitioning between colloidal and molecular Pu species. Weakly coordinating anions (ClO 4 – , Cl – , NO 3 – ) largely preserve the (aggregated) nanoparticulate fraction but generate distinct dissolved species at high concentration, i.e., Pu(IV)–nitrato complexes in NaNO 3 and Pu(VI)–chloro complexes in NaCl. In contrast, stronger ligands substantially perturb PuO 2 NP stability: sulfate promotes partial dissolution to Pu(IV)–sulfate complexes at low concentration but reduces aqueous [Pu] at higher sulfate levels via secondary Pu(IV) sulfate formation, whereas oxalate drives strong dissolution to aqueous Pu–oxalate complexes. Aged NPs show similar trends with reduced aqueous fractions and more dominant aggregation mechanisms. In conclusion, these spectroscopically constrained speciation data provide a foundation for incorporating PuO 2 NP reactivity into thermodynamic and reactive transport models for high salinity waste and brine environments.

Aggregation↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Inverse Prediction Using Functional Response Data

Inverse prediction models have commonly been developed to handle scalar data from physical experiments. However, it is not uncommon for data to be collected in functional form. When data are collected in functional form, it must be aggregated to fit the form of traditional methods, which often results in a loss of information. For expensive experiments, this loss of information can be costly. In this study, we introduce the functional inverse prediction (FIP) framework, a general approach which uses the full information in functional response data to provide inverse predictions with probabilistic prediction uncertainties obtained with the bootstrap. The FIP framework is a general methodology that can be modified by practitioners to accommodate many different applications and types of data. We demonstrate the framework, highlighting points of flexibility, with a simulation example and applications to weather data and to nuclear forensics. Results show how functional models can improve the accuracy and precision of predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cryo-electron tomography provides topological insights into mutant huntingtin exon 1 and polyQ aggregates

Huntington disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative trinucleotide repeat disorder caused by an expanded poly-glutamine (polyQ) tract in the mutant huntingtin (mHTT) protein. The formation and topology of filamentous mHTT inclusions in the brain (hallmarks of HD implicated in neurotoxicity) remain elusive. Using cryo-electron tomography and subtomogram averaging, here we show that mHTT exon 1 and polyQ-only aggregates in vitro are structurally heterogenous and filamentous, similar to prior observations with other methods. Yet, we find filaments in both types of aggregates under ~2 nm in width, thinner than previously reported, and regions forming large sheets. In addition, our data show a prevalent subpopulation of filaments exhibiting a lumpy slab morphology in both aggregates, supportive of the polyQ core model. This provides a basis for future cryoET studies of various aggregated mHTT and polyQ constructs to improve their structure-based modeling as well as their identification in cells without fusion tags.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Mountain Glacier Perspective on the Bipolar Seesaw

A global record of mountain glacier terminations during the last deglaciation (∼19–11 ka) dated by a large, uncurated data set of cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages highlights a statistically significant asynchrony in termination ages between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This interhemispheric offset in the timing of glacier terminations is consistent with previously correlated ice core records that show a systematic interhemispheric lag in the timing of abrupt climate events, with the Southern Hemisphere leading the Northern Hemisphere by ∼300–3,500 years. Our analysis (a) aggregates cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages from a global data set of moraines to discern climatically driven peaks in moraine emplacement events, and (b) utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation based on a null hypothesis that moraine emplacement is interhemispherically synchronous to estimate the statistical significance of the observed offset. The observed lag of Northern Hemisphere emplacement events compared to the Southern Hemisphere is statistically significant and is consistent with the “bipolar seesaw” pattern observed in ice core records.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARCH: Large-scale knowledge graph via aggregated narrative codified health records analysis

Objective: Electronic health record (EHR) systems contain a wealth of clinical data stored as both codified data and free-text narrative notes (NLP). The complexity of EHR presents challenges in feature representation, information extraction, and uncertainty quantification. Here, to address these challenges, we proposed an efficient Aggregated naRrative Codified Health (ARCH) records analysis to generate a large-scale knowledge graph (KG) for a comprehensive set of EHR codified and narrative features. Methods: Using data from 12.5 million Veterans Affairs patients, ARCH first derives embedding vectors and generates similarities along with associated p-values to measure the strength of relatedness between clinical features with statistical certainty quantification. Next, ARCH performs a sparse embedding regression to remove indirect linkage between features to build a sparse KG. Finally, ARCH was validated on various clinical tasks, including detecting known relationships between entity pairs, predicting drug side effects, disease phenotyping, as well as sub-typing Alzheimer’s disease patients. Results: ARCH produces high-quality clinical embeddings and KG for over 60,000 codified and narrative EHR concepts. The KG and embeddings are visualized in the R-shiny powered web-API.3 ARCH achieved high accuracy in detecting EHR concept relationships, with AUCs of 0.926 (codified) and 0.861 (NLP) for similar EHR concepts, and 0.810 (codified) and 0.843 (NLP) for related pairs. It detected drug side effects with a 0.723 AUC, which improved to 0.826 after fine-tuning. Using both codified and NLP features, the detection power increased significantly. Compared to other methods, ARCH has superior accuracy and enhances weakly supervised phenotyping algorithms’ performance. Notably, it successfully categorized Alzheimer’s patients into two subgroups with varying mortality rates. Conclusion: The proposed ARCH algorithm generates large-scale high-quality semantic representations and knowledge graph for both codified and NLP EHR features, useful for a wide range of predictive modeling tasks.

Electronic health records↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ionic Liquid Sheath Stabilizes Atomically Dispersed Reduced Graphene Aerogel‐Supported Iridium Complexes during Ethylene Hydrogenation Catalysis

Abstract An atomically dispersed reduced graphene aerogel (rGA)‐supported iridium catalyst having reactive ethylene ligands was synthesized at an iridium loading of 9.9 wt % and coated with an ionic liquid, 1‐ethyl‐3‐methylimidazolium acetate ([EMIM][OAc]). Continuous‐scan X‐ray absorption spectra demonstrated that the iridium remained site‐isolated in flowing equimolar C 2 H 4 and H 2 during a temperature ramp to 100 °C. The data further showed the lack of detectable iridium aggregation when the feed was H 2 ‐rich or even pure H 2 at 100 °C. An Arrhenius plot determined for ethylene hydrogenation catalysis with the sample in flowing equimolar ethylene and hydrogen showed no variation in the apparent activation energy at temperatures up to 100 °C, confirming that the active sites remained intact at the higher temperatures. The results point to opportunities for overcoming the stability limitations of atomically dispersed supported noble metal catalysts by choice of electron‐donor supports and ionic liquid sheaths.

Kurtoğlu‐Öztulum, Samira F.↗