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Challenges and Practical Solutions for Conducting Structural MARSSIM Surveys in Elevated Radon Environments - 20413

The Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) [1] provides comprehensive guidance for the development and implementation of radiological surveys conducted to demonstrate compliance with a dose- or risk-based cleanup goal during final status survey. The MARSSIM methodology follows an integrated strategy combining direct measurements and sampling to assess uniform residual contamination, and scanning surveys to identify localized areas of elevated activity. Building surveys assessing residual surface contamination present unique challenges from reliance on field measurements that may be subject to less than ideal environmental conditions. Additionally, limited characterization and excessive conservatism incorporated into the conceptual site model may result in derived concentration guideline levels (DCGL) and, as a consequence of relatively inefficient field instrumentation, corresponding attributable count rates generally comparable to background. The presence of elevated ambient radon concentrations and associated progeny deposition both exacerbate these intrinsic survey challenges and introduce a series of technical, logistic, and administrative obstacles that can wreak havoc on the statistical legitimacy of each component of the MARSSIM process. Short-lived radon progeny including polonium-218, lead-214, bismuth-214, and polonium-214 produce excessive alpha and beta radiation that may decrease instrument sensitivity through an increase in background count rates, and, at worst, may result in incorrect survey unit failure through the simulation of residual surface activity. Aside from the obvious solution of exhaustive radon mitigation, the primary objectives are to distinguish between radon progeny deposition and actual surface activity, and collect sufficient defensible data. The following is a technical discussion of the consequences of performing building MARSSIM surveys in the presence of elevated ambient radon atmospheres, conceptual examples, and an overview of practical strategies to minimize the effects of radon interference while collecting sufficient defensible data to complete the survey. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

National Energy Water Treatment & Speciation (NEWTS): A Water & Critical Mineral Database and Dashboard

The scarcity of water resources, the need for beneficial water reuse, and the challenges of wastewater treatment are becoming increasingly pressing in economic, social, and environmental domains. Addressing these concerns requires effective treatment strategies to manage wastewater streams and tackle environmental and economic issues. Furthermore, the recovery of critical minerals from the waste streams associated with energy production holds the promise of offsetting treatment costs and securing local sources of valuable minerals. However, relevant data on these waste streams are dispersed and challenging to locate. The process of ingesting such data into modeling software often involves multiple steps, requiring data restructuring to meet software-input requirements. The non-standardized reporting of water data makes data aggregation and reformatting a time-consuming process. Additionally, essential attributes necessary for modeling water treatment and mineral scale formation are frequently missing. Moreover, data gaps vary depending on the region of interest. Consequently, there is a pressing need for high-quality energy-water composition data that can be easily imported into water chemistry modeling software. To address this need, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has created the National Energy Water Treatment and Speciation (NEWTS) Database and Dashboard—a free online tool catering to community leaders and water researchers. NEWTS facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the composition of energy-related wastewater streams in the United States. The datasets provide detailed concentrations and speciation of major and minor aqueous compounds in energy-related wastewater streams, including power plant leachate, acid mine drainage, brackish water, and oil and gas produced water across the United States. Many of the aqueous species are critical minerals (Li, REEs) in high demand to modernize the world’s energy infrastructure. Many of the datasets also contain volumetric flow-rates needed to model the treatment and reuse scenarios in advanced aqueous chemistry software programs. The NEWTS Database and Dashboard offer public access to hitherto challenging-to-access datasets, presented in a standardized format that is tailored for easy input into aqueous chemistry modeling software. By performing the work needed to transform dispersed, disparate data sources into unified, model-ready datasets, NEWTS serves as an essential resource in advancing water treatment research and sustainable water resource management.

produced water management↗

Quantum Noise Mitigation: Introducing the Robust Quantum Circuit Scheduler for Enhanced Fidelity and Throughput

Undoubtedly, quantum computing offers valuable acceleration for solving intricate problems. One of the primary hurdles lies in executing large-scale quantum applications on backend machines. Qubit noise, among other factors, dramatically influences the execution process. Implementing effective scheduling techniques for quantum circuits is crucial for practical quantum computing and preventing excessive waiting times. The quantum realm is distinct from classical computing in terms of optimization, performance, utilization, and waiting periods. Consequently, the parameters and components of quantum circuit scheduling diverge from those of classical computing. This paper presents Quantum Noise Mitigation: Introducing the Robust Quantum Circuit Scheduler for Enhanced Fidelity and Throughput, a straightforward yet effective scheduling framework and policy that enhances noise resilience, throughput, and the fidelity of quantum circuits. Drawing inspiration from classical methods, our scheduling approach incorporates additional constraints tailored for quantum logic. The outcome demonstrates a substantial improvement in fidelity and resource management, which is vital for real-world quantum applications.

Baheri, Betis↗

ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

In Silico Versus In Situ: The Challenging Landscape of Nuclear Criticality Safety Training

Nuclear criticality safety grew out of the ranks of experimentalists studying the physics of chain-reacting systems at critical experiment facilities. Consequently, critical experiment facilities provide the best forum for conducting training in nuclear criticality safety. As the nuclear renaissance gains traction, there is an increased demand to train personnel in nuclear criticality safety (NCS). Strides have been made in both on-line and virtual reality based NCS training. While these are perhaps a necessary component of NCS training, hands-on training at critical experiments facilities remains the most effective means of developing competency for fissionable material handlers, managers of fissionable material operations, criticality safety analysts, and experimentalists. This paper explores the challenges of developing and maintaining workforce competency in nuclear criticality safety to support safe and efficient fissionable material operations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Repository-Scale Performance Assessment Incorporating Postclosure Criticality

A key objective of the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign is to better understand the technical basis, risks, and uncertainty associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Commercial nuclear power generation in the United States has resulted in thousands of metric tons of SNF, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the DOE (Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended). Any repository licensed to dispose of SNF must meet requirements regarding the long-term performance of that repository. For an evaluation of the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration during the postclosure period. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently licensed and being used to store and transport SNF but were not designed for permanent geologic disposal. A study has been initiated to examine the potential consequences, with respect to long-term repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. The first phase (a scoping phase) consisted of developing an approach to creating the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be needed to either include or exclude criticality from a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate; this scoping phase is documented in Price et al. (2019a). In the second phase, that modeling approach was implemented and future work was identified, as documented in Price et al. (2019b). This report gives the results of a repository-scale PA examining the potential consequences of postclosure criticality, as well as the information, modeling tools, and techniques needed to incorporate the effects of postclosure criticality in the PA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data Management for Digital Twin Implementation: Enhancing Existing SCADA Architecture for INL's CITRC Test Distribution System

The United States power grid will continue to experience stress from aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and increasing loads. In order to strengthen resiliency, researchers need to run tests and simulations that model real-life infrastructure. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is creating a digital twin of its Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC). CITRC is an at-scale grid testbed which can be configured in utility-realistic distribution scenarios for a variety of tests, such as advanced grid protection and control. A digital twin of this infrastructure would support in-depth tests/simulations without risking physical consequences, before trialing devices under test at-scale. This project focuses on the data acquisition part of constructing a digital twin. It investigates the Supervisory Data Acquisition and Control (SCADA) system of CITRC and explores ways to utilize this system for the twin. Future “ideal” at-scale implementations such as upgraded equipment, modern communication protocols, and automation applications are also explored.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stormwater Storage and Retention Within an Urban Prairie Wetland Complex

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of flooding in the Great Lakes region. In many cities, flood-control infrastructure is insufficient to protect against future climate conditions. Consequently, there is increasing focus on stormwater storage provided by urban greenspace, such as wetlands and prairies, but the ecohydrological behavior of these ecosystems is not well understood when they are embedded within cities. To improve understanding of hydrological connectivity between urban areas and natural greenspaces, we deployed a sensor network in Gensburg Markham Prairie (GMP), a large intact prairie-wetland complex in south suburban Chicago. We used the resulting high-frequency time-series data to assess surface-subsurface hydrologic dynamics between upland and low-lying wetland areas, interactions between the prairie and surrounding environment, and stormwater storage provided by the prairie. Rapid infiltration within the prairie during and after storm events provides subsurface flow that stores considerable water, flattens storm hydrographs, and increases the wetland hydroperiod. Much of the stormwater input to GMP derives from the surrounding cityscape. Consequently, storage within the prairie-wetland system reduces and slows stormwater discharge to downstream urban communities. For a typical 5-year 24-hr storm with 10.9 cm of rain, GMP stores 77,100 m 3 , 64% greater than the estimated direct rainfall volume onto the prairie, yielding 30,000 m 3 of offsite stormwater storage. This improved understanding of ecohydrological dynamics in urban prairies and wetlands informs the design and implementation of green infrastructure to meet growing needs for stormwater management.

Rivera, Vivien Anne [Northwestern University, Evan↗

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗

Panel Session 133: Integrating Economic Redevelopment and Workforce Transition Into DOE Site Closure Planning (R1.18)

This panel focused on post-closure impacts to the long-term site workforce and communities in DoE's approach to accelerated site cleanup and expedited reduction of long-term financial liabilities. At sites where Cold-War workers shifted from weapons production to the cleanup effort, a more holistic approach to the workforce transition Post-EM cleanup is needed. This holistic approach would include incentives for expedited closure, trade re-training, and a vision for future site commercial activities. The panel discussed the importance of the right workforce incentives that includes appropriate training for displaced workers so that they can be integrated into a next job. A key aspect of this discussion was to re-assess the current and future land use opportunities related to land re-use concepts. By re-arranging cleanup sequencing is it possible to divest land sooner than originally projected for productive commercial use hence reducing the DOE long-term liability and consequently increasing an economic soft landing for those Cold-War workers. Panelists with presentations: Integrating Economic Redevelopment and Workforce Transition Into DOE Site Closure Planning (Sean Todd); Sustaining, Growing and Re-Developing DOD/DOD Facilities and Assets (Jonathan Taylor)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Developing a Decision Support Engine to Enable Irrigation Modernization - Poster

Irrigation systems in the United States are some of the oldest continually utilized infrastructure in existence today, with some systems exceeding 100 years in age. They are operated to meet farming demands but are managed through a balance of varying influence: policies limiting water usage, stakeholder interests, and environmental impacts. Irrigation modernization is defined as a set of activities that update and improve existing irrigation systems, including, but not limited to improving water quantity, development of distributed energy resources for surrounding communities, ecosystem services, and improved agricultural yields. Modernizing an existing irrigation system can enable stakeholders to combat changing environmental and population demands but is difficult because the complexity involved in determining the potential benefits and consequences of irrigation modernization is high. We are combining a large amount of various geospatial, tabular, and temporal data with subject matter expertise into a decision support engine that will enable stakeholders to determine the benefits and consequences of irrigation modernization in their irrigation systems. A web-based GIS will allow the user to construct the modifications out of a palette of modernization options, which will be sent to the analytics engine for computations, and back to the web client for a graphical display and comparison of relevant metrics. Our development process involves four phases: 1) identify mechanisms of modernization, 2) identify data requirements, data streams, first principles and applicable algorithms necessary to quantify modernization mechanisms, 3) create ‘modules’ for each modernization mechanism, these modules will form the decision support engine, each capable of performing independently but can also inform other modules when needed, 4) Merge the decision support engine with a user interface, capable of ingesting user inputs and returning insights into the impacts of a modernization project as they relate to economic, environmental, monetary, and energy generation. Once complete, it is our intention that this tool will be fundamental in irrigation modernization projects, providing a strong analytical basis from which stakeholders can quickly make informed decisions regarding project development.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Updates to a Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 20420

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was required to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980 including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the West Valley Site that evaluates potential future consequences for human health and the environment. This forms the core of the spatial domain of the West Valley PPA Model. The PPA Model, developed using the GoldSim system modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making that evaluates uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-grouped contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of high level radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The PPA Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife could be exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the PPA Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. PPA Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes. With this information, the decision makers can drive informed, defensible decisions regarding decommissioning of the Site. This paper includes an update of the information presented at WM2019 [1]. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

carbon capture and storage↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Potential impacts of Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas emissions of food systems

Seafood plays a critical role in promoting a nutritious and climate-friendly food system but faces challenges from marine contamination that pose food safety risks. Here, to address these challenges, we developed a Marine Pollution-induced Food System Risk Assessment and Response (MP-FSRAR) model to assess the impact of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risk events on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Applying this model to the proposed Fukushima Nuclear Wastewater Discharge (FNWD) into the Pacific Ocean, we identified the potential variation in nutrient supply and GHG emissions resulting from changes in Chinese consumers' willingness to consume seafood under 12 scenarios. Our analysis revealed nutrient supply gaps in daily protein, minerals, vitamins, and fatty acids, ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 g/person, 2.5–4.5 mg/person, 5.6–10.3 mcg/person, and 0.08–0.14 g/person, respectively. Closing the protein gap in China would require an additional 3.2–15.8 billion kg yr -1 protein-rich foods, including aquatic, livestock, dairy, and pulses. Additional food supply would increase extra GHG emissions by 1–79 billion kg CO 2 e yr -1 , resulting in potential GHG emissions being transmitted to other countries through the trade chain. Furthermore, we found that the livestock-based food substitution pathway had 40 times higher GHG emissions than the plant-based one. Our MP-FSRAR model provides global stakeholders with new perspectives on the potential consequences of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risks and offers valuable insights for developing countermeasures to build a more resilient and low-carbon food system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Remediation of Temporary Storage Sites in Support of the Port Hope Area Initiative - 20295

The Port Hope Area Initiative is a community-based solution for the long-term management of historic low level radioactive waste (LLRW) resulting from 60 years of uranium and radium processing operations in the Town of Port Hope which is located in Ontario, Canada. The Eldorado refinery, on the north shore of Lake Ontario, began refining radium-226 from pitchblende ore, later transitioning to the refining of uranium. Through the history of the operation, LLRW was deposited throughout the town of Port Hope as a result of fugitive emissions from the plant and/or through the re-use of process residues as building material and backfill. Historical clean-up activities conducted in the late 1970's involved the remediation of approximately 400 properties and the relocation of 100,000 cubic metres of contaminated soil to a disposal facility in Chalk River operated by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL). Owing to space limitations at that disposal facility, any LLRW identified through construction monitoring since that time has been stored in the community at three temporary storage sites located throughout the town. These include: the Centre Pier mound that contained approximately of 19,800 m{sup 3} of LLRW-impacted soil that originated from the construction of a new water treatment plant; two mounds located at a licensed storage facility containing LLRW obtained from residential clean-up activities (11,000 m{sup 3}); and a small pad adjacent to the municipal sewage treatment plant containing 2200 m{sup 3} of LLRW-containing sludge. With the construction of a new long-term waste management facility (LTWMF) that has been designed to house all of the LLRW identified within Port Hope, the three sites were early candidates for remediation. The clean-up of the three temporary storage sites was a significant milestone for the Port Hope Area Initiative. After a decade of planning and consultation, this work represents the first sites in the municipality to be remediated with the waste being safety removed and transferred to the newly constructed LTWMF. This paper discusses the challenges associated with the clean-up activities for these three sites and the strategies employed to address those challenges. These included weather-related challenges, owing to the seasons over which the work was conducted as well as those associated with working within a closely-knit community. Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL), working on behalf of the federal government, has worked diligently to develop a positive and trusting relationship with the community. Consequently, the successful execution of this project needed to be sensitive to, and respectful of the needs of the community. In addition to the usual Health, Safety and Environment training, project staff received community awareness training that spoke to the history of this community-based initiative and the expected behavior when working within the community. Transportation routes were defined based on safety and the need to minimize disruption to local traffic while haul-times where scheduled around school bus hours to enhance public safety. The successful completion of this first of many remediation projects to be completed under the Port Hope Area Initiative reflected years of careful planning. Nevertheless, there were a number of 'lessons learned' that have been applied on other ongoing projects be completed under the Port Hope Area Initiative. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

ARCADE Analysis Methods & Validation Pathway

The Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) provides an automated analysis system which supports risk-informed performance based (RIPB) evaluations of nuclear control systems. Every possible cyber threat which could lead to consequence is identified by simulating the unsafe control action sequences which transform digital harm into physical harm. Eliminating the simulation of complex digital cyber attack chains cuts out unnecessary computational overhead and focuses directly on the physics of cyber-physical attacks. This focus enables designers to make informed decisions which can entirely eliminate categories of cyber threats against advanced reactors through the physical nature of the plant design. This narrowing of cyber threat against nuclear power plants through the physics of the system is intended to make any remaining threat management and cost efficient. This is the goal of the Tiered Cyber Analysis (TCA) outlined in NRC Draft Regulation Guide (RG) 5.96, which provides a RIPB cybersecurity approach for new reactors. ARCADE has been custom developed to meet the demands of the rigorous analysis required in Tier 1 of the TCA, which forms the foundation of the TCA process. Currently, ARCADE is still under development, but has made significant leaps in capability. A pilot analysis on the opensource Asherah simulator was performed which demonstrated key functionality goals. The next stage of ARCADE development involves improvements to the applications which support the analysis system, and enabling the analysis system to utilize the full suite of unsafe control action simulations. Since the analysis method’s core functions are complete, validation of the analysis method will be started concurrent to the next development stages. The automated analysis ARCADE will provide can radically change the cybersecurity design process for advanced reactors, reducing the cost of security implementation while enhancing cyber resilience. The pathway for ARCADE’s development to this goal has become much clearer. The majority of technical hurdles have been cleared, and the remaining development needs have been solidified. ARCADE is now capable of assisting the advanced reactor design process and directly support advanced reactor industry RIPB practices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗