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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Controlling the Aspect Ratios of Au Nanocrystals with Ag+ Addition Time in Seed-Mediated Synthesis: Implications for Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering

Among various factors playing pivotal roles in the typical seed-mediated growth of Au nanocrystals (NCs), the role of Ag (AgNO3) has remained debatable over time and seminal research efforts have helped us in reaching a consensus, albeit from the standpoint of [Ag+] concentration. This study aims to provide an understanding of the role of Ag+ from the perspective of time. Here, we show that different Au NCs with tunable aspect ratios (ARs) can be generated in one system in high yield simply by varying the time of addition of Ag+ in the growth solution. The generality of the method has been demonstrated in tuning the ARs of anisotropic Au NCs like concave cuboid (CCB, AR = 2) and elongated tetrahexahedra (AR = 2.5), where the delayed addition of Ag+ leads to the formation of their isotropic counterpart concave cube (CC, AR = 1) and tetrahexahedra (AR = 1), respectively. This work, apart from establishing timed addition of Ag+ as a crucial parameter in controlling the AR, may also help in the realization of a universal growth mechanism of Au NCs. The Au NCs with varying ARs (CCB, AR = 2 and CC, AR = 1) have been further explored as potential substrates for surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) due to the presence of their high-index facets and sharp tips.

KEYWORDS:Au nanoparticles seed-mediated growth hig↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Site Identity, Location, and Accessibility on Polyethylene Conversion Rates and Product Selectivities over Metal-Free MFI Zeolites

Brønsted (BAS), Lewis (LAS), and surface Brønsted (SBAS) acid sites have been investigated for polyethylene (PE) upcycling by zeolite catalysts, but there is no clear consensus regarding their catalytic roles, partly due to the complexity of the catalysts used and varying reaction conditions across studies. This work systematically determined how these sites impact PE conversion rates and product distributions by utilizing a suite of microporous MFI catalysts with varying Si/Al ratios, acid site densities, and inherent mesoporosities. PE conversion rates did not trend with total BAS or LAS densities due to a combination of internal mass transfer limitation and the apparent inability of LAS alone to cleave C–C bonds, but a strong, statistically significant correlation was present with respect to SBAS density and mesopore surface area, jointly, owing to accelerated polymer activation on external surfaces to smaller diffusion-limited chains. However, ingress of these SBAS-derived fragments ultimately remained rate limiting, as demonstrated by solid conversion rates that increased with mesopore surface area at similar SBAS density and likewise increased with SBAS density at similar mesopore surface area. In batch PE cracking reactions, light gaseous product selectivities were most sensitive to total BAS, with higher densities generally exhibiting higher selectivity to C 3 and linear C 4 –C 7 products and higher alkane/alkene product ratios, consistent with increased β-scission turnovers. Insights from this work help systematically clarify the roles of BAS, LAS, SBAS, and mesopores in PE cracking reactions and inform the development of tailored zeolite catalysts for efficient polyolefin upcycling.

accessibility↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interstitial Nature of Mn 2+ Doping in 2D Perovskites

Halide perovskites doped with magnetic impurities (such as the transition metals Mn 2+ , Co 2+ , Ni 2+ ) are being explored for a wide range of applications beyond photovoltaics, such as spintronic devices, stable light-emitting diodes, single-photon emitters, and magneto-optical devices. However, despite several recent studies, there is no consensus on whether the doped magnetic ions will predominantly replace the octahedral B-site metal via substitution or reside at interstitial defect sites. Here, by performing correlated nanoscale X-ray microscopy, spatially and temporally resolved photoluminescence measurements, and magnetic force microscopy on the inorganic 2D perovskite Cs 2 PbI 2 Cl 2 , we show that doping Mn 2+ into the structure results in a lattice expansion. The observed lattice expansion contrasts with the predicted contraction expected to arise from the B-site metal substitution, thus implying that Mn 2+ does not replace the Pb 2+ sites. Photoluminescence and electron paramagnetic resonance measurements confirm the presence of Mn 2+ in the lattice, while correlated nano-XRD and X-ray fluorescence track the local strain and chemical composition. Density functional theory calculations predict that Mn 2+ atoms reside at the interstitial sites between two octahedra in the triangle formed by one Cl – and two I – atoms, which results in a locally expanded structure. These measurements show the fate of the transition metal dopants, the local structure, and optical emission when they are doped at dilute concentrations into a wide band gap semiconductor.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Excitation Intensity- and Size-Dependent Halide Photosegregation in CsPb(I 0.5 Br 0.5 ) 3 Perovskite Nanocrystals

Although broad consensus exists that photoirradiation of mixed-halide lead perovskites leads to anion segregation, no model today fully rationalizes all aspects of this near ubiquitous phenomenon. In this work, we quantitatively compare experimental, CsPb(I 0.5 Br 0.5 ) 3 nanocrystal (NC) terminal anion photosegregation stoichiometries and excitation intensity thresholds to a band gap-based, thermodynamic model of mixed-halide perovskite photosegregation. Mixed-halide NCs offer strict tests of theory given physical sizes, which dictate local photogenerated carrier densities. We observe that mixed-anion perovskite NCs exhibit significant robustness to photosegregation, with photosegregation propensity decreasing with decreasing NC size. Observed size- and excitation intensity-dependent photosegregation data agree with model predicted size- and excitation intensity-dependent terminal halide stoichiometries. Established correspondence between experiment and theory, in turn, suggests that mixed-halide perovskite photostabilities can be predicted a priori using local gradients of (empirical) Vegard’s law expressions of composition-dependent band gaps.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of Surface Features on the Initial Dissolution of CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 Perovskite in Liquid Water: An Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Study

In this study, the degradation of CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 (MAPbI 3 ) hybrid organic inorganic perovskite (HOIP) by water has been the major issue hampering its use in commercial perovskites solar cells (PSCs) as MAPbI 3 HOIP have been known to easily degrade in the presence of water molecules. However, even though there have been numerous studies investigating this phenomenon, there is still no consensus on the mechanisms of initial stages of dissolution. Here, we attempt to consolidate differing mechanistic interpretations previously reported in the literature through the use of the first-principles constrained ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) to study the mechanisms, kinetics, and thermodynamics that accompany the degradation of MAPbI 3 HOIP in liquid water. We consider not only the dissolution of the species found on the pristine MAPbI 3 HOIP surfaces, but also the dissolution from defect sites to imitate the successive degradation steps, and propose a sequence of events in the initial phase of MAPbI 3 HOIP dissolution. By comparing the dissolution free energy barrier between surface species of different surficial types, we find that the dominant dissolution mechanisms of surface species varies widely based on the specific surface features adjacent to the dissolving ion. The high sensitivity of dissolution mechanism to surface features has contributed to the many dissolution mechanisms proposed in the literature. In contrast, the dissolution free energy barriers are mainly determined by the dissolving species rather than the type of surfaces, and the type of surfaces the ions are dissolving from are inconsequential toward the dissolution free energy barrier. However, the presence of surface defects such as vacancy sites are found to significantly lower the dissolution free energy barriers. Based on the estimated dissolution free energy barriers from different types of surfaces that we investigated in this study, we proposed that the dissolution of MAPbI 3 HOIP in liquid water originates from surface defect sites that propagate laterally along the surface layer of the MAPbI 3 HOIP crystal.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Reconstruction of Halide Perovskites During Post-treatment

Postfabrication surface treatment strategies have been instrumental to the stability and performance improvements of halide perovskite photovoltaics in recent years. However, a consensus understanding of the complex reconstruction processes occurring at the surface is still lacking. Here, we combined complementary surface-sensitive and depth-resolved techniques to investigate the mechanistic reconstruction of the perovskite surface at the microscale level. We observed a reconstruction toward a more PbI 2 -rich top surface induced by the commonly used solvent isopropyl alcohol (IPA). We discuss several implications of this reconstruction on the surface thermodynamics and energetics. Particularly, our observations suggest that IPA assists in the adsorption process of organic ammonium salts to the surface to enhance their defect passivation effects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Structure of Boron Monoxide

Boron monoxide (BO), prepared by the thermal condensation of tetrahydroxydiboron, was first reported in 1955; however, its structure could not be determined. With the recent attention on boron-based two-dimensional materials, such as borophene and hexagonal boron nitride, there is renewed interest in BO. A large number of stable BO structures have been computationally identified, but none are supported by experiments. The consensus is that the material likely forms a boroxine-based two-dimensional material. Herein, we apply advanced 11 B NMR experiments to determine the relative orientations of B(B)O 2 centers in BO. We find that the material is composed of D 2h -symmetric O 2 B–BO 2 units that organize to form larger B 4 O 2 rings. Further, powder diffraction experiments additionally reveal that these units organize to form two-dimensional layers with a random stacking pattern. This observation is in agreement with earlier density functional theory (DFT) studies that showed B 4 O 2 -based structures to be the most stable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Operando Characterization of Fe in Doped Ni x (Fe 1– x )O y H z Catalysts for Electrochemical Oxygen Evolution

Iron-doped nickel oxyhydroxides, Ni x (Fe 1– x )O y H z , are among the most promising oxygen evolution reaction (OER) electrocatalysts in alkaline environments. Although iron (Fe) significantly enhances the catalytic activity, there is still no clear consensus on whether Fe directly participates in the reaction or merely acts as a promoter. To elucidate the Fe’s role, we performed operando X-ray spectroscopy studies supported by DFT on Ni x (Fe 1– x )O y H z electrocatalysts. We probed the reversible changes in the structure and electronic character of Ni x (Fe 1– x )O y H z as the electrode potential is cycled between the resting (here at 1.10 V RHE ) and operational states (1.66 V RHE ). DFT calculations and XAS simulations on a library of Fe structures in various NiO y H z environments are in favor of a distorted local octahedral Fe(III)O 3 (OH) 3 configuration at the resting state with the NiO y H z scaffold going from α-Ni(OH) 2 to γ-NiOOH as the potential is increased. Under catalytic conditions, EXAFS and HERFD spectra reveal changes in p-d mixing (covalency) relative to the resting state between O/OH ligands and Fe leading to a shift from octahedral to square pyramidal coordination at the Fe site. XES measurements and theoretical simulations further support that the Fe equilibrium structure remains in a formal Fe(III) state under both resting and operational conditions. These spectral changes are attributed to potential dependent structural rearrangements around Fe. The results suggest that ligand dissociation leads to the C 4v symmetry as the most stable intermediate of the Fe during OER. This implies that Fe has a weakly coordinated or easily dissociable ligand that could serve to coordinate the O–O bond formation and, tentatively, play an active role in the Ni x (Fe 1– x )O y H z electrocatalyst.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tests of the DFT Ladder for the Fulminic Acid Challenge

Properties of the historically pivotal fulminic acid (HCNO) molecule have been computed with a panoply of 473 density functionals of all varieties, providing a snapshot of the performance of contemporary density functional theory (DFT) for a challenging chemical system. Exhaustive tabulations and statistical analyses have been carried out for geometric parameters, vibrational frequencies, barriers to linearity, and the HCN–O dissociation energy. As the DFT ladder is climbed, confusion rather than consensus ensues regarding the details of the distinctive, extremely flat H–C–N bending potential of fulminic acid and whether the equilibrium structure is linear or bent. While high-ranking DFT functionals produce the smallest errors for the HCN + O( 3 P) → HCNO reaction energy, lower rungs emerge as the best performers for many of the bond distances and harmonic vibrational frequencies. This research shows that the current DFT zoo of approximations does not constitute a transparent ladder of increasingly accurate methods that consistently converges on definitive predictions for various properties of HCNO. Additional analyses are performed on the side effects of popular dispersion corrections on the covalently bonded properties and thermochemistry of HCNO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Quantification of Spin–Phonon Coupling in Molecular Qubits Using Inelastic Neutron Scattering

Electronic spin superposition states enable nanoscale sensing through their sensitivity to the local environment, yet their sensitivity to vibrational motion also limits their coherence times. In molecular spin systems, chemical tunability and atomicscale resolution are accompanied by a dense, thermally accessible phonon spectrum that introduces efficient spin relaxation pathways. Despite extensive theoretical work, there is little experimental consensus on which vibrational energies dominate spin relaxation or how molecular structure controls spin−phonon coupling (SPC). We present a fully experimental method to quantify SPC coefficients by combining temperature-dependent vibrational spectra from inelastic neutron scattering with spin relaxation rates measured by electron paramagnetic resonance. We apply this framework to two model S = 1/2 systems, copper(II) phthalocyanine (CuPc) and copper(II) octaethylporphyrin (CuOEP). Two distinct relaxation regimes emerge: below 40 K, weakly coupled lattice modes below 50 cm −1 dominate, whereas above 40 K, optical phonons above ∼185 cm −1 become thermally populated and drive relaxation with SPC coefficients nearly 3 orders of magnitude larger. Structural distortions in CuOEP that break planar symmetry soften the crystal lattice and enhance anharmonic scattering but also raise the energy of stretching modes at the molecular core where the spins reside. This redistributes vibrational energy toward the molecular periphery and out of plane, ultimately reducing SPC relative to CuPc and enabling room-temperature spin coherence in CuOEP. Although our method does not provide mode-specific SPC coefficients, it quantifies contributions from distinct spectral regions and establishes a broadly applicable, fully experimental link between crystal structure, lattice dynamics, and spin relaxation.

Lohaus, Stefan H. [California Institute of Technol↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Model for Turbulence Spectra in the Equilibrium Range of the Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Stratification can cause turbulence spectra to deviate from Kolmogorov's isotropic -5/3 power law scaling in the universal equilibrium range at high Reynolds numbers. However, a consensus has not been reached with regard to the exact shape of the spectra. Here we propose a shape of the turbulent kinetic energy and temperature spectra in horizontal wavenumber for the equilibrium range that consists of three regimes at small Froude number: the buoyancy subrange, a transition region, and the isotropic inertial subrange through dimensional analysis and substantial revision of previous theoretical approximation. These spectral regimes are confirmed by various observations in the atmospheric boundary layer. The representation of the transition region in direct numerical simulations will require large-scale separation between the Dougherty-Ozmidov scale and the Kolmogorov scale for strongly stratified turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, which is still challenging computationally. In addition, we suggest that the failure of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in the very stable atmospheric boundary layer is due to the fact that it does not consider the buoyancy scale that characterizes the transition region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Impacts of Plant Stoichiometric Traits on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Accumulation Using the E3SM Land Model

Carbon (C) enters into the terrestrial ecosystems via photosynthesis and cycles through the system together with other essential nutrients (i.e., nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]). Such a strong coupling of C, N, and P leads to the theoretical prediction that limited nutrient availability will limit photosynthesis rate, plant growth, and future terrestrial C dynamics. However, the lack of reliable information about plant tissue stoichiometric constraints remains a challenge for quantifying nutrient limitations on projected global C cycling. In this study, we harmonized observed plant tissue C:N:P stoichiometry from more than 6,000 plant species with the commonly used plant functional type framework in global land models. Using observed C:N:P stoichiometry and the flexibility of these ratios as emergent plant traits, we show that observationally constrained fixed plant stoichiometry does not improve model estimates of present-day C dynamics compared with unconstrained stoichiometry. However, adopting stoichiometric flexibility significantly improves model predictions of C fluxes and stocks. The 21st century simulations with RCP8.5 CO 2 concentrations show that stoichiometric flexibility, rather than baseline stoichiometric ratios, is the dominant controller of plant productivity and ecosystem C accumulation in modeled responses to CO 2 fertilization. The enhanced nutrient limitations and plant P use efficiency mainly explain this result. This study is consistent with the previous consensus that nutrient availability will limit xfuture land carbon sequestration but challenges the idea that imbalances between C and nutrient supplies and fixed stoichiometry limit future land C sinks. We show here that it is necessary to represent nutrient stoichiometric flexibility in models to accurately project future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

InterCarb: A Community Effort to Improve Interlaboratory Standardization of the Carbonate Clumped Isotope Thermometer Using Carbonate Standards

Abstract Increased use and improved methodology of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry has greatly enhanced our ability to interrogate a suite of Earth‐system processes. However, interlaboratory discrepancies in quantifying carbonate clumped isotope (Δ 47 ) measurements persist, and their specific sources remain unclear. To address interlaboratory differences, we first provide consensus values from the clumped isotope community for four carbonate standards relative to heated and equilibrated gases with 1,819 individual analyses from 10 laboratories. Then we analyzed the four carbonate standards along with three additional standards, spanning a broad range of δ 47 and Δ 47 values, for a total of 5,329 analyses on 25 individual mass spectrometers from 22 different laboratories. Treating three of the materials as known standards and the other four as unknowns, we find that the use of carbonate reference materials is a robust method for standardization that yields interlaboratory discrepancies entirely consistent with intralaboratory analytical uncertainties. Carbonate reference materials, along with measurement and data processing practices described herein, provide the carbonate clumped isotope community with a robust approach to achieve interlaboratory agreement as we continue to use and improve this powerful geochemical tool. We propose that carbonate clumped isotope data normalized to the carbonate reference materials described in this publication should be reported as Δ 47 (I‐CDES) values for Intercarb‐Carbon Dioxide Equilibrium Scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We perform a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth System model simulations to assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Eleven models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 280 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over East Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advancing Cross-Disciplinary Understanding of Land-Atmosphere Interactions

The evolution of disciplinary silos and increasingly narrow disciplinary boundaries have together resulted in one-sided approaches to the study of land-atmosphere interactions—a field that requires a bi-directional approach to understand the complex feedbacks and interactions that occur. The integration of surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer measurements is therefore essential to advancing our understanding. The Land-Atmosphere 2021 workshop (held virtually, June 10-11, 2021) involved almost 300 participants from around the world and promoted cross-discipline collaboration by way of talks from invited speakers, moderated discussions, breakout sessions, and a virtual poster session. The workshop focused on five main theme areas: “big picture” overview, instrumentation and remote sensing, modeling, water, and aerosols and clouds. In talks and breakout groups, there were frequent calls for more AmeriFlux sites to be instrumented for boundary layer height measurements, and for the development of some “super sites” where profiling instruments would be deployed. There was further agreement on the need for the standardization of various datasets. There was also a consensus that funding agencies need to be willing to support the sorts of large projects (including associated instrumentation) which can drive interdisciplinary work. Early-career scientists, in particular, expressed enthusiasm for working across disciplinary boundaries but noted that there need to be more financial support and training opportunities so they would be better prepared for interdisciplinary work. Investment in these career development opportunities would enable today's cohort of early-career scientists to advance the frontiers of interdisciplinary work over the next couple of decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models

Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil C stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO 2 levels, further altering the climate. Here, we assessed the reliability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions of soil C change using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). ESMs predicted global soil C gains under the high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) C on average during the 21st century. The variation in global soil C change declined significantly from CMIP5 (with average of 48.4 Pg [95% CI: 2.0–94.9 Pg] C) to CMIP6 models (with average of 39.3 Pg [95% CI: 23.9–54.7 Pg] C). For some models, a small C increase in all biomes contributed to this convergence. For other models, offsetting responses between cold and warm biomes contributed to convergence. Although soil C predictions appeared to converge in CMIP6, the dominant processes driving soil C change at global or biome scales differed among models and in many cases between earlier and later versions of the same model. Random Forest models, for soil carbon dynamics, accounted for more than 63% variation of the global soil C change predicted by CMIP5 ESMs, but only 36% for CMIP6 models. Although most CMIP6 models apparently agree on increased soil C storage during the 21st century, this consensus obscures substantial model disagreement on the mechanisms underlying soil C response, calling into question the reliability of model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗