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At least 289 records · Page 16

The cosmic-ray antiproton flux - An upper limit near that predicted for secondary production

Data gathered from a balloon flight of a superconducting-magnet spectrometer have been examined for the presence of cosmic-ray antiprotons. The ratio of antiprotons to protons, p(-)/p, in cosmic rays was found to be (0.03 + or - 3.3) ten-thousandths in the rigidity interval from 4.2 to 12.5 GV. The 95%-confidence-level upper limit for p(-)/p is thus 0.00066. This upper limit is in strong contradiction to the prediction of the closed-galaxy model of Rasmussen and Peters (1975), but is not inconsistent with the prediction of the modified closed-galaxy model of Peters and Westergaard (1977). It is nearly equal to the predictions of conventional propagation models. This result provides an independent confirmation of the absence of primary antimatter in the cosmic rays at a level of approximately a few ten-thousandths.

Badhwar, G. D.↗

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Landman, Drew↗

EMU processing - A myth dispelled

The refurbishment-and-checkout 'processing' activities entailed by the Space Shuttle Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) are currently significantly more modest, at 1050 man-hours, than when Space Shuttle services began (involving about 4000 man-hours). This great improvement in hardware efficiency is due to the design or modification of test rigs for simplification of procedures, as well as those procedures' standardization, in conjunction with an increase in hardware confidence which has allowed the extension of inspection, service, and testing intervals. Recent simplification of the hardware-processing sequence could reduce EMU processing requirements to 600 man-hours in the near future.

Peacock, Paul R.↗

Real time prediction of marine vessel motions using Kalman filtering techniques

The present investigation is concerned with the prediction of the future behavior of a vessel within some confidence bounds at a specific instant of time, taking into account an interval of a few seconds. The ability to predict accurately the motions of a vessel can reduce significantly the probability of failure of operations in rough seas. The investigation was started as part of an effort to ensure safe landing of aircraft on relatively small vessels. However, the basic principles involved in the study are the same for any offshore operation, such as carbo transfer in the open sea, structure installation, and floating crane operation. The Kalman filter is a powerful tool for achieving the goals of the prediction procedure. Attention is given to a linear optimal predictor, the equations of motion of the vessel, the wave spectrum, rational approximation, the use of Kalman filter and predictor in an application for a ship, and the motions of a semisubmersible.

Triantafyllou, M. S.↗

A Model for Effective Professional Development of Formal Science Educators

The Lunar Workshops for Educators (LWE) series was developed by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) education team in 2010 to provide professional development on lunar science and exploration concepts for grades 6-9 science teachers. Over 300 educators have been trained to date. The LWE model incorporates best practices from pedagogical research of science education, thoughtful integration of scientists and engineer subject matter experts for both content presentations and informal networking with educators, access to NASA-unique facilities, hands-on and data-rich activities aligned with education standards, exposure to the practice of science, tools for addressing common misconceptions, follow-up with participants, and extensive evaluation. Evaluation of the LWE model via pre- and post-assessments, daily workshop surveys, and follow-up surveys at 6-month and 1-year intervals indicate that the LWE are extremely effective in increasing educators' content knowledge, confidence in incorporating content into the classroom, understanding of the practice of science, and ability to address common student misconceptions. In order to address the efficacy of the LWE model for other science content areas, the Dynamic Response of Environments at Asteroids, the Moon, and moons of Mars (DREAM2) education team, funded by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, developed and ran a pilot workshop called Dream2Explore at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in June, 2015. Dream2Explore utilized the LWE model, but incorporated content related to the science and exploration of asteroids and the moons of Mars. Evaluation results indicate that the LWE model was effectively used for educator professional development on non-lunar content. We will present more detail on the LWE model, evaluation results from the Dream2Explore pilot workshop, and suggestions for the application of the model with other science content for robust educator professional development.

Orbiter↗

Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron flux from 10 to 100 MeV

The UCR large area solid-angle double scatter neutron telescope was flown to search for solar neutrons on 3 balloon flights on September 26, 1971, May 14, 1972 and September 19, 1972. The first two flights were launched from Palestine, Texas and the third from Cape Girardeau, Missouri. The float altitude on each flight was at about 5 g/sq cm residual atmosphere. Neutrons from 10 to 100 MeV were measured. No solar flares occurred during the flights. Upper limits to the quiet time solar neutron fluxes at the 95% confidence level are .00028, .00046, .00096 and .00090 neutrons/sq cm-sec in the energy intervals of 10-30, 30-50, 50-100 and 10-100 MeV, respectively.

Moon, S.↗

Variance and bias confidence criteria for ERA modal parameter identification

For the ERA system identification algorithm, perturbation methods are used to develop expressions for variance and bias of the identified modal parameters. Based on the statistics of the measurement noise, the variance results serve as confidence criteria by indicating how likely the true parameters are to lie within any chosen interval about their identified values. This replaces the use of expensive and time-consuming Monte Carlo computer runs to obtain similar information. The bias estimates help guide the ERA user in his choice of which data points to use and how much data to use in order to obtain the best results, performing the trade-off between the bias and scatter. Also, when the uncertainty in the bias is sufficiently small, the bias information can be used to correct the ERA results. In addition, expressions for the variance and bias of the singular values serve as tools to help the ERA user decide the proper modal order.

Longman, Richard W.↗

Isotopic composition of the anomalous low energy cosmic ray nitrogen and oxygen

The isotopic composition of the enhanced fluxes of cosmic ray nitrogen and oxygen observed below 30 MeV/nuc is of interest, whether the nuclei are a sample from some nearby galactic source region that is underabundant in carbon, or a sample of the neutral interstellar medium. Enhanced fluxes in the 6 to 12 MeV/nuc energy interval were measured over a two year period with the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer on IMP-7. The observed low-energy nitrogen and oxygen nuclei are predominantly N-14 and O-16, with upper limits (84% confidence level) of N-15/N below 0.26, O-17/0 below 0.13, and O-18/0 below 0.12 for other isotopes in the 6-12 MeV/nuc energy interval. The implications of these results for the origin of the enhanced nitrogen and oxygen fluxes are discussed.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

A Comment on the Suspected Solar Neutrino-Solar Activity Connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (viz., solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (viz., solar particles), based on the (chi)-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the (chi)-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Optimal checkpointing of real-time tasks

Analytical models for the design and evaluation of checkpointing of real-time tasks are developed. First, the execution of a real-time task is modeled under a common assumption of perfect coverage of on-line detection mechanisms (which is termed a basic model). Then, the model is generalized (to an extended model) to include more realistic cases, i.e., imperfect coverages of on-line detection mechanisms and acceptance tests. Finally, an optimal placement of checkpoints is determined to minimize the mean task execution time while the probability of an unreliable result (or lack of confidence) is kept below a specified level. In the basic model, it is shown that equidistant intercheckpoint intervals are optimal, whereas this is not necessarily true in the extended model. An algorithm for calculating the optimal number of checkpoints and intercheckpoint intervals is presented with some numerical examples for the extended model.

Shin, Kang G.↗

A comment on the suspected solar neutrino -- solar activity connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (namely, solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (namely, solar particles), based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the chi-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Conical-Domain Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

The conical-domain model is a computational model, now undergoing development, for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. Relative to the standard ionospheric delay model described below, the conical-domain model offers improved accuracy. In the absence of selective availability, the ionosphere is the largest source of error for single-frequency users of GPS. Because ionospheric signal delays contribute to errors in GPS position and time measurements, satellite-based augmentation systems (SBASs) have been designed to estimate these delays and broadcast corrections. Several national and international SBASs are currently in various stages of development to enhance the integrity and accuracy of GPS measurements for airline navigation. In the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) of the United States, slant ionospheric delay errors and confidence bounds are derived from estimates of vertical ionospheric delay modeled on a grid at regularly spaced intervals of latitude and longitude. The estimate of vertical delay at each ionospheric grid point (IGP) is calculated from a planar fit of neighboring slant delay measurements, projected to vertical using a standard, thin-shell model of the ionosphere. Interpolation on the WAAS grid enables estimation of the vertical delay at the ionospheric pierce point (IPP) corresponding to any arbitrary measurement of a user. (The IPP of a given user s measurement is the point where the GPS signal ray path intersects a reference ionospheric height.) The product of the interpolated value and the user s thin-shell obliquity factor provides an estimate of the user s ionospheric slant delay. Two types of error that restrict the accuracy of the thin-shell model are absent in the conical domain model: (1) error due to the implicit assumption that the electron density is independent of the azimuthal angle at the IPP and (2) error arising from the slant-to-vertical conversion. At low latitudes or at mid-latitudes under disturbed conditions, the accuracy of SBAS systems based upon the thin-shell model suffers due to the presence of complex ionospheric structure, high delay values, and large electron density gradients. Interpolation on the vertical delay grid serves as an additional source of delay error. The conical-domain model permits direct computation of the user s slant delay estimate without the intervening use of a vertical delay grid. The key is to restrict each fit of GPS measurements to a spatial domain encompassing signals from only one satellite. The conical domain model is so named because each fit involves a group of GPS receivers that all receive signals from the same GPS satellite (see figure); the receiver and satellite positions define a cone, the satellite position being the vertex. A user within a given cone evaluates the delay to the satellite directly, using (1) the IPP coordinates of the line of sight to the satellite and (2) broadcast fit parameters associated with the cone. The conical-domain model partly resembles the thin-shell model in that both models reduce an inherently four-dimensional problem to two dimensions. However, unlike the thin-shell model, the conical domain model does not involve any potentially erroneous simplifying assumptions about the structure of the ionosphere. In the conical domain model, the initially four-dimensional problem becomes truly two-dimensional in the sense that once a satellite location has been specified, any signal path emanating from a satellite can be identified by only two coordinates; for example, the IPP coordinates. As a consequence, a user s slant-delay estimate converges to the correct value in the limit that the receivers converge to the user s location (or, equivalently, in the limit that the measurement IPPs converge to the user s IPP).

Sparks, Lawrence↗

Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron flux from 10 to 100 MeV

A large-area solid-angle double-scatter neutron telescope was flown to search for solar neutrons on three balloon flights in 1971 and 1972. The first two flights were launched from Palestine, Texas, and the third from Cape Girardeau, Missouri. The float altitude on each flight was at about 5 g/sq cm residual atmosphere. Neutrons from 10 to 100 MeV were measured. No solar flares occurred during the flights. Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron fluxes at the 95-per cent confidence level are 2.8, 4.6, 9.6, and 9.0 x 10 to the -4th power neutron/sq cm/sec in the energy intervals of 10-30, 30-50, 50-100, and 10-100 MeV, respectively.

Moon, S.↗

IGR J170626143 is an Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar

We present the discovery of 163.65 Hz X-ray pulsations from IGR J17062−6143 in the only observation obtained from the source with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. This detection makes IGR J17062−6143 the lowest frequency accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar presently known. The pulsations are detected in the 2-12 keV band with an overall significance of 4.3sigma and an observed pulsed amplitude of 5.54% +/-0.67% (in this band). Both dynamic power spectral and coherent phase timing analysis indicate that the pulsation frequency is decreasing during the approx. =1.2 ks observation in a manner consistent with orbital motion of the neutron star. Because the observation interval is short, we cannot precisely measure the orbital period; however, periods shorter than 17 minutes are excluded at 90% confidence. For the range of acceptable circular orbits the inferred binary mass function substantially overlaps the observed range for the AMXP population as a whole.

stars: neutron↗

On the occurrence of sympathetic flares

Random-coincidence formulas are applied to the data used in previous studies of alleged sympathetic flares to determine whether statistical evidence on the occurrence of such flares can be found for specific physically connected pairs of active regions. Only those active regions that are interconnected by magnetic loops in soft X-rays on Skylab photographs are considered to be physically connected. All pairs of flaring active regions (both interconnected and otherwise) observed on the sun during the Skylab flight are also evaluated. The only positive result is obtained with statistical confidence of 3.4 sigmas for pairs of active regions separated by no more than 30 deg. The occurrence of short time intervals between flares is shown to be increased for such active-region pairs, but the pattern of time intervals is found not to correspond with any propagation mode of a triggering agent in the solar atmosphere. It is suggested that some subphotospheric synchronization of activity in nearby plages and sunspot groups could increase the number of short time intervals between flares at different locations without any actual influence of one 'sympathetic' flare upon another, leading to the concept of 'sympathetic active regions' instead of 'sympathetic flares'.

Fritzova-Svestkova, L.↗

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

simulation↗

The Uncertainty of Biomass Estimates from Modeled ICESat-2 Returns Across a Boreal Forest Gradient

The Forest Light (FLIGHT) radiative transfer model was used to examine the uncertainty of vegetation structure measurements from NASA's planned ICESat-2 photon counting light detection and ranging (LiDAR) instrument across a synthetic Larix forest gradient in the taiga-tundra ecotone. The simulations demonstrate how measurements from the planned spaceborne mission, which differ from those of previous LiDAR systems, may perform across a boreal forest to non-forest structure gradient in globally important ecological region of northern Siberia. We used a modified version of FLIGHT to simulate the acquisition parameters of ICESat-2. Modeled returns were analyzed from collections of sequential footprints along LiDAR tracks (link-scales) of lengths ranging from 20 m-90 m. These link-scales traversed synthetic forest stands that were initialized with parameters drawn from field surveys in Siberian Larix forests. LiDAR returns from vegetation were compiled for 100 simulated LiDAR collections for each 10 Mg · ha(exp -1) interval in the 0-100 Mg · ha(exp -1) above-ground biomass density (AGB) forest gradient. Canopy height metrics were computed and AGB was inferred from empirical models. The root mean square error (RMSE) and RMSE uncertainty associated with the distribution of inferred AGB within each AGB interval across the gradient was examined. Simulation results of the bright daylight and low vegetation reflectivity conditions for collecting photon counting LiDAR with no topographic relief show that 1-2 photons are returned for 79%-88% of LiDAR shots. Signal photons account for approximately 67% of all LiDAR returns, while approximately 50% of shots result in 1 signal photon returned. The proportion of these signal photon returns do not differ significantly (p greater than 0.05) for AGB intervals greater than 20 Mg · ha(exp -1). The 50m link-scale approximates the finest horizontal resolution (length) at which photon counting LiDAR collection provides strong model fits and minimizes forest structure uncertainty in the synthetic Larix stands. At this link-scale AGB greater than 20 Mg · ha(exp -1) has AGB error from 20-50% at the 95% confidence level. These results suggest that the theoretical sensitivity of ICESat-2 photon counting LiDAR measurements alone lack the ability to consistently discern differences in inferred AGB at 10 Mg · ha(exp -1) intervals in sparse forests characteristic of the taiga-tundra ecotone.

LiDAR↗