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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Search for a Cloud Phase Feedback in the Arctic Climate System

This project was motivated by a hypothesis involving the transition in lower troposphere temperatures across the freezing point of water. Specifically, at temperatures just below to about ten degrees below freezing, Arctic clouds should be in a mixed-phase, with strong influences from secondary ice production (e.g., the Hallett-Mossop process). At temperatures just above freezing, clouds should become entirely deglaciated. We hypothesized that, with multiple years of ARM data, a statistically significant change could be detected in cloud radiative properties and surface radiative fluxes that could be directly attributed to this phase change. Furthermore, in a gradually warming climate, these phase change-related responses in surface radiation would represent a cloud phase feedback as part of Arctic amplification. We designed this research project to coincide with a new ARM Arctic cloud radar product developed by Ed Luke and collaborators at BNL (Luke et al., 2021: PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.2021387118) that explicitly contains SIP cloud properties retrieved from radar data. This research project has successfully concluded after analysis of a much larger North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data sample than originally anticipated, and the results are quite different than originally hypothesized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The origin of soil organic matter controls its composition and bioreactivity across a mesic boreal forest latitudinal gradient

Warmer climates have been associated with reduced bioreactivity of soil organic matter (SOM) typically attributed to increased diagenesis; the combined biological and physiochemical transformation of SOM. In addition, cross–site studies have indicated that ecosystem regime shifts, associated with long–term climate warming, can affect SOM properties through changes in vegetation and plant litter production thereby altering the composition of soil inputs. The relative importance of these two controls, diagenesis and inputs, on SOM properties as ecosystems experience climate warming, however, remains poorly understood. To address this issue we characterized the elemental, chemical (nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and total hydrolysable amino acids analysis), and isotopic composition of plant litter and SOM across a well–constrained mesic boreal forest latitudinal transect in Atlantic Canada. Results across forest sites within each of three climate regions indicated that (1) climate history and diagenesis affect distinct parameters of SOM chemistry, (2) increases in SOM bioreactivity with latitude were associated with elevated proportions of carbohydrates relative to plant waxes and lignin, and (3) despite the common forest type across regions, differences in SOM chemistry by climate region were associated with chemically distinct litter inputs and not different degrees of diagenesis. The observed climate effects on vascular plant litter chemistry, however, explained only part of the regional differences in SOM chemistry, most notably the higher protein content of SOM from warmer regions. Greater proportions of lignin and aliphatic compounds and smaller proportions of carbohydrates in warmer sites' soils were explained by the higher proportion of vascular plant relative to moss litter in the warmer relative to cooler forests. Furthermore, these results indicate that climate change induced decreases in the proportion of moss inputs not only impacts SOM chemistry but also increases the resistance of SOM to decomposition, thus significantly altering SOM cycling in these boreal forest soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Role of CO 2 , climate and land use in regulating the seasonal amplitude increase of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems: A multimodel analysis

We examined the net terrestrial carbon flux to the atmosphere (F TA ) simulated by nine models from the TRENDY dynamic global vegetation model project for its seasonal cycle and amplitude trend during 1961-2012. While some models exhibit similar phase and amplitude compared to atmospheric inversions, with spring drawdown and autumn rebound, others tend to rebound early in summer. The model ensemble mean underestimates the magnitude of the seasonal cycle by 40g% compared to atmospheric inversions. Global F TA amplitude increase (19 ± 8%) and its decadal variability from the model ensemble are generally consistent with constraints from surface atmosphere observations. However, models disagree on attribution of this long-term amplitude increase, with factorial experiments attributing 83 ± 56%, -3 ± 74 and 20 ± 30% to rising CO 2 , climate change and land use/cover change, respectively. Seven out of the nine models suggest that CO 2 fertilization is the strongest control -with the notable exception of VEGAS, which attributes approximately equally to the three factors. Generally, all models display an enhanced seasonality over the boreal region in response to high-latitude warming, but a negative climate contribution from part of the Northern Hemisphere temperate region, and the net result is a divergence over climate change effect. Six of the nine models show that land use/cover change amplifies the seasonal cycle of global < i > F TA : some are due to forest regrowth, while others are caused by crop expansion or agricultural intensification, as revealed by their divergent spatial patterns. We also discovered a moderate cross-model correlation between < i > F TA amplitude increase and increase in land carbon sink ( < i > R 2 Combining double low line 0.61). Our results suggest that models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying mechanisms; therefore, the spatial traits of CO 2 fertilization, climate change and land use/cover changes are crucial in determining the right mechanisms in seasonal carbon cycle change as well as mean sink change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration

Abstract Aim Ongoing climate change is currently modifying the geographical location of areas that are climatically suitable for species. Understanding a species’ ability to successfully shift its geographical range would allow us to assess extinction risks and predict future community compositions. We investigate how habitat configuration impedes or promotes climate‐driven range shifts, given different speeds of climate change and dispersal abilities. Location Theoretical, but illustrated with European examples. Methods We model how a species’ ability to track a directional shift in climatic conditions is affected by (a) species’ dispersal abilities; (b) speed of climatic shift; and (c) spatial arrangement of the habitat. Our modelling framework includes within‐and between‐patch population dynamics and uses ecologically realistic habitat distributions and dispersal scenarios (verified with data from a set of European mammal species) and, as such, is an improvement of classical range shift models. Results In landscapes with a homogeneous distribution of suitable habitats, all but the least dispersive species will be able to range shift. However, species with high dispersal ability will have lower population densities after range shift. In heterogeneous landscapes species’ ability to range shift is far more variable and heavily dependent on the habitat configuration. This means that landscape configuration in combination with the speed of climate change and species dispersal abilities give rise to nonlinear effects on population sizes and survival after a climatic shift. Main conclusions Our analyses point out the importance of accounting for the interplay of species dispersal and the landscape configuration when estimating future climate impact on species. These results link ecologically important attributes of both species and their landscapes to outcomes of species range shift, and thereby long‐term persistence of ecological communities.

Årevall, Jonatan↗
DOE OSTI2016

Barotropic and Baroclinic Eddy Feedbacks in the Midlatitude Jet Variability and Responses to Climate Change–Like Thermal Forcings

Abstract Studies have suggested that the persistence in the meridional vacillation of the midlatitude jet (i.e., annular mode time scale) in comprehensive climate models is related to the model biases in climatological jet latitude, with important implications for projections of future climates and midlatitude weather events. Through the use of the recently developed finite-amplitude wave activity formalism and feedback quantifying techniques, this paper has quantified the role of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in annular mode time scales using an idealized dry atmospheric model. The eddy–mean flow interaction that characterizes the persistent anomalous state of the midlatitude jet depends on processes associated with the lower-tropospheric source of vertically propagating Rossby waves, baroclinic mechanisms, and processes associated with upper-tropospheric wave propagation and breaking, barotropic mechanisms. A variety of climate change–like thermal forcings are used to generate a range of meridional shifts in the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. The idealized model shows a reduction in annular mode time scale associated with an increase in jet latitude, similar to comprehensive climate models. This decrease in time scale can be attributed to a similar decrease in the strength of the barotropic eddy feedback, which, in the positive phase of the annular mode, is characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV) mixing on the equatorward flank of the climatological jet. The decrease in subtropical PV mixing is, in turn, associated with a stronger subtropical jet as the eddy-driven jet is more distant from the subtropics. These results highlight the importance of subtropical eddy–mean flow interactions for the persistence of an eddy-driven jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Landsat Science: 40 Years of Innovation and Opportunity

Landsat satellites have provided unparalleled Earth-observing data for nearly 40 years, allowing scientists to describe, monitor and model the global environment during a period of time that has seen dramatic changes in population growth, land use, and climate. The success of the Landsat program can be attributed to well-designed instrument specifications, astute engineering, comprehensive global acquisition and calibration strategies, and innovative scientists who have developed analytical techniques and applications to address a wide range of needs at local to global scales (e.g., crop production, water resource management, human health and environmental quality, urbanization, deforestation and biodiversity). Early Landsat contributions included inventories of natural resources and land cover classification maps, which were initially prepared by a visual interpretation of Landsat imagery. Over time, advances in computer technology facilitated the development of sophisticated image processing algorithms and complex ecosystem modeling, enabling scientists to create accurate, reproducible, and more realistic simulations of biogeochemical processes (e.g., plant production and ecosystem dynamics). Today, the Landsat data archive is freely available for download through the USGS, creating new opportunities for scientists to generate global image datasets, develop new change detection algorithms, and provide products in support of operational programs such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD). In particular, the use of dense (approximately annual) time series to characterize both rapid and progressive landscape change has yielded new insights into how the land environment is responding to anthropogenic and natural pressures. The launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) satellite in 2012 will continue to propel innovative Landsat science.

Cook, Bruce D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska.

Arctic Carbon Cycle↗
DOE OSTI2017

Qinghai–tibetan plateau peatland sustainable utilization under anthropogenic disturbances and climate change

Often referred to as the “Third Pole,” China's Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau developed large amounts of peatland owing to its unique alpine environment. As a renewable resource, peat helps to regulate the climate as well as performing other important functions. However, in recent years, intensifying climate change and anthropogenic disturbances have resulted in peatland degradation and consequently made sustainable development of peatland more difficult. This review summarizes peatland ecological and economic functions, including carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, energy supplies, and ecotourism. It identifies climate change and anthropogenic disturbances as the two key factors attributing to peatland degradation and ecosystem carbon loss. Current problems in environmental degradation and future challenges in peatland management under the effects of global warming are also discussed and highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

Highlights: • The study projects future heat-related mortality risk in 51 major cities in China. • The projections are based on high resolution climate and population projections. • Future heat mortality risk is likely to be considerable under all emission scenarios. • Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk. Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041–2060) relative to 1970–2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300–43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200–36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300–29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800–14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200–40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity

Abstract A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such “trophic asynchrony” is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long‐distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg‐laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long‐distance migrants, short‐distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long‐term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline.

Franks, Samantha E.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017

In the period 2015–2017, the Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall—leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in the city of Cape Town. After testing that the precipitation deficit is the primary driver behind the reduced surface water availability, we undertake a multi-method attribution analysis for the meteorological drought, defined in terms of a deficit in the 3 years running mean precipitation averaged over the Western Cape area. The exact estimate of the return time of the event is sensitive to the number of stations whose data is incorporated in the analysis but the rarity of the event is unquestionable, with a return time of more than a hundred years. Synthesising the results from five different large model ensembles as well as observed data gives a significant increase by a factor of three (95% confidence interval 1.5–6) of such a drought to occur because of anthropogenic climate change. All the model results further suggest that this trend will continue with future global warming. These results are in line with physical understanding of the effect of climate change at these latitudes and highlights that measures to improve Cape Town's resilience to future droughts are an adaptation priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improving maize growth processes in the community land model: Implementation and evaluation

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Several current ESMs have the capabilities to simulate crop growth. However, some critical crop growth processes (e.g. flowering and other reproductive processes) and their responses to environmental extremes (e.g. heat stress) are not yet represented in most of these models. In this paper, an improved maize growth model was implemented in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) by modifying the maize planting scheme, incorporating the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator), adding a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improving the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number. Evaluation of results at 7 AmeriFlux sites located in the US Corn Belt show that the CLM-APSIM model performs better than the original CLM4.5 in simulating phenology (LAI and canopy height), surface fluxes including gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat (LH), and sensible heat (SH), and especially in simulating the biomass partition and maize yield. The CLM-APSIM model corrects a serious deficiency in CLM4.5-related to CLM4.5’s underestimation of aboveground biomass (i.e. overestimation of belowground biomass) and overestimation of Harvest Index, which lead to a reasonable yield estimation with wrong mechanisms. Moreover, 13-year simulation results from 2001 to 2013 at the three Mead sites (US-Ne1, Ne2 and Ne3) show that the CLM-APSIM model can more accurately reproduce maize yield responses to growing season climate (temperature and precipitation) than the original CLM4.5 when benchmarked with the site-based observations and USDA county-level survey statistics. The CLM-APSIM model is thus more suitable than its predecessor models in terms of simulating abiotic environmental stresses on maize yield. This new model provides an improved tool to attribute maize yield change to various processes under historical and future climate, as well as to assess and design effective climate adaptation strategies for sustainable agricultural production.

Peng, Bin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other prominent climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, thereby imprinting its regular, predictable variability on them. If realized, this global climate mode resonance would have wide-ranging whiplash impacts on regional hydroclimates.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Streamflow in the Columbia River Basin: Quantifying Changes Over the Period 1951-2008 and Determining the Drivers of Those Changes

Trend, detection, and attribution analyses were performed using naturalized streamflow observations and routed land surface model runoff for 10 subbasins in the Columbia River Basin during water years 1951–2008. The Energy Exascale Earth System land-surface model (ELM) version 1.0 and the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model were used to conduct semi-factorial simulations driven by multiple sets of bias-corrected forcing data sets. Four main potential drivers, including climate change (CLMT), CO 2 concentration (CO 2 ), nitrogen deposition (NDEP), and land use and land cover change (LULCC), were analyzed during the assessment. All subbasins showed significant (α = 0.10) declines in the observed amount of annual total streamflow, except for the Middle and Upper Snake and Upper Columbia Subbasins. These declines were led by significant decreases in June–October streamflow, which also directly led to significant decreases in peak and summer streamflow. Except for the Snake River Subbasins, LULCC had the same pattern of declines in monthly streamflow, but the period was shifted to May–September. NDEP also had significant trends in June–October; however, rather than decreases, the trends showed significant increases in streamflow. While there were significant trends in CO 2 , NDEP, and LULCC, their signals of change were weak in comparison to the signal in CLMT and the natural internal variability found in streamflow. Overall, the detection and attribution analysis showed that the historical changes found in annual total, center of timing of, and summer mean streamflow could be attributed to changing climate and variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Abstract Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite‐derived vegetation index data and supporting tree‐ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi‐arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region‐ and biome‐dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non‐dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate‐specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗