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DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design of a Meso-Scale Test of a Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) System

This paper will present the characterization, scaling, and design of an intermediate-scale field test of a fracture thermal energy storage system (FTES). Seasonal storage of thermal energy has the potential to both significantly reduce the total energy requirements for heating and cooling of buildings, but also allow for the flexibility to store thermal energy from intermittent sources. With approximately half of global energy consumption currently being used for heating and cooling, this represents an important path to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The concept of FTES is to drill two or more wells into a low permeability formation, generally at a depth of less than a few hundred meters, and then generate hydraulic fractures to create flow paths for water to circulate between the wells. Hot or cold thermal energy can then be stored in the surrounding rock mass by circulating hot or cold water through the fractures, which will heat or cool the rock mass. To recover the stored energy, ambient temperature water can be then circulated through the fractures, which will then be heated or cooled by the rock mass. Fractures inherently have a very large ratio of surface area to volume. This allows for very high heat fluxes to and from the rock mass to be achieved despite the relatively low thermal conductivity of most geologic formations. Because large fractures can be made with low-cost equipment and with only inexpensive and environmentally safe materials such as water and sand, the cost to construct even large FTES systems is expected to be quite low. This paper will present what the performance requirements, size, and operating conditions of a full-scale system to operate a commercial building. The paper will describe how these full-scale system characteristics will be used as a design basis for an intermediate-scale FTES test to be conducted at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, SD.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Solar heating and hot water system installed at Municipal Building complex, Abbeville, South Carolina

Information on the solar energy system installed at the new municipal building for the City of Abbeville, SC is presented, including a description of solar energy system and buildings, lessons learned, and recommendations. The solar space heating system is a direct air heating system. The flat roof collector panel was sized to provide 75% of the heating requirement based on an average day in January. The collectors used are job-built with two layers of filon corrugated fiberglass FRP panels cross lapped make up the cover. The storage consists of a pit filled with washed 3/4 in - 1 1/2 in diameter crushed granite stone. The air handler includes the air handling mechanism, motorized dampers, air circulating blower, sensors, control relays and mode control unit. Solar heating of water is provided only those times when the hot air in the collector is exhausted to the outside.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2007

Impact of MODIS High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperatures on WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Over the past few years,studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite sea-surface temperature (SST) products in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. The recent paper by LaCasse et al. (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPoRT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The scientific hypothesis being tested is: More accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running the WRF system in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software; The EMS is a standalone modeling system capable of downloading the necessary daily datasets, and initializing, running and displaying WRF forecasts in the NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) with little intervention required by forecasters. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily with start times of 0300,0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and the far western portions of the Bahamas, the Florida Keys, the Straights of Florida, and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS, invoking the diabatic. "hot-start" capability. In this WRF model "hot-start", the LAPS-analyzed cloud and precipitation features are converted into model microphysics fields with enhanced vertical velocity profiles, effectively reducing the model spin-up time required to predict precipitation systems. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at l/12 degree resolution (approx. 9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPoRT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA in every respect except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water. The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPoRT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST composites into the SPoRTWRF runs is staggered such that the 0400UTC composite initializes the 0900 UTC WRF, the 0700 UTC composite initializes the 1500 UTC WRF, the 1600 UTC composite initializes the 2100 UTC WRF, and the 1900 UTC composite initializes the 0300 UTC WRF. A comparison of the SPoRT and Miami forecasts is underway in 2007, and includes quantitative verification of near-surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind forecasts at surface observation locations. In addition, particular days of interest are being analyzed to determine the impact of the MODIS SST data on the development and evolution of predicted sea/land-breeze circulations, clouds, and precipitation. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA forecasts the SPoRT experimental WRF forecasts, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Dry Air Entrainment into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf of Mexico in September 1998. It quickly was upgraded from a tropical disturbance to tropical storm status and then to a hurricane. Earl possessed hybrid (tropical and extratropical) characteristics throughout its lifetime. The system maintained and erratic track, which led to wide variability in the operational track forecasts. It eventually made landfall on the Florida panhandle on 2 September and raced northeastward. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). The experiment was focused on studying hurricanes with an emphasis toward developing a better understanding of their intensification and motion. Earl provides a unique opportunity to utilize high spatial and temporal resolution data collected from the DC-8 and high altitude ER-2 NASA platforms, which flew over Earl as it made landfall. These data can also be put into broader view provided by other instruments from the Geosychronous Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Hurricane Earl was affected by entrainment of dry air from the northwest. Hurricane Isis was intensifying and approaching the Mexican Pacific coast with its associated outflow potentially affecting the inflow into Earl as the storm neared Florida. In addition, a longwave synoptic trough circulation was present over the eastern U.S. Either or both of these could be responsible for the dry air into the system. This paper will focus on identifying the source of the dry by using upper-level wind and moisture fields derived from the GOES 6.7 um water vapor imagery. We will attempt to relate the large-scale observations to those from the NASA aircraft. An infrared instrument onboard the ER-2 also has a similar wavelength and may be able to confirm some of the GOES findings. In addition, a microwave radiometer with 4 channels focused on measuring precipitation and its associated ice scattering was also aboard the ER-2. The microwave observations will allow the authors to relate the entrainment to precipitation changes near the flight path of the aircraft.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air Into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf of Mexico in September 1998. It quickly was upgraded from a tropical disturbance to tropical storm status and then to a hurricane. Earl possessed hybrid (tropical and extratropical) characteristics throughout its lifetime. The system maintained and erratic track, which led to wide variability in the operational track forecasts. It eventually made landfall on the Florida panhandle on 2 September and raced northeastward. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). The experiment was focused on studying hurricanes with an emphasis toward developing a better understanding of their intensification and motion. Earl provides a unique opportunity to utilize high spatial and temporal resolution data collected from the DC-8 and high altitude ER-2 NASA platforms, which flew over Earl as it made landfall. These data can also be put into broader view provided by other instruments from the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Hurricane Earl was affected by entrainment of dry air from the northwest. Hurricane Isis was intensifying and approaching the Mexican Pacific coast with its associated outflow potentially affecting the inflow into Earl as the storm neared Florida. In addition, a longwave synoptic trough circulation was present over the eastern U.S. Either or both of these could be responsible for the dry air into the system. This paper will focus on identifying the source of the dry by using upper-level wind and moisture fields derived from the GOES 6.7 um water vapor imagery. We will attempt to relate the large-scale observations to those from the NASA aircraft. An infrared instrument onboard the ER-2 also has a similar wavelength and may be able to confirm some of the GOES findings. In addition, a microwave radiometer with 4 channels focused on measuring precipitation and its associated ice scattering was also aboard the ER-2. The microwave observations will allow the authors to relate the entrainment to precipitation changes near the flight path of the aircraft.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dense Feature Tracking of Atmospheric Winds with Deep Optical Flow

Atmospheric winds are a key physical phenomenon impacting natural hazards, energy transport, ocean currents, large-scale circulation, and ecosystem fluxes. Observing winds is a complex process and presents a large gap in NASA’s Earth Observation System. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) aim to fill this gap by making numerical estimates of cloud movement between sequences of multi-spectral satellite images, tracking clouds and water vapor. Recent imaging hardware and software advancements have enabled the use of numerical optical flow techniques to produce accurate and dense vector fields outperforming traditional methods. This work presents WindFlow as the first machine learning based system for feature tracking atmospheric motion using optical flow. Due to the lack of large-scale satellite-based observations, we leverage high-resolution numerical simulations from NASA's GEOS-5 Nature Run to perform supervised learning and transfer to satellite images. We demonstrate that our approach using deep learning based optical flow scales to ultra-high-resolution images of size 2881x5760 with less than 1 m/s bias and 2.5 m/s average error. Four network and learning architectures are compared and it is found that recurrent all-pairs field transforms (RAFT) produces the lowest errors on all metrics for wind speed and direction. Results on held out numerical outputs shows RAFT's good performance in each of the spatial, temporal, and physical dimensions. A comparison between WindFlow and an operational AMV product against rawinsonde observations show that RAFT transfers across simulations and thermal infrared satellite observations. This work shows that machine learning based optical flow is an efficient approach to generating robust feature tracking for AMVs consistently over large regions.

Atmospheric winds↗

DOE OSTI2020

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of effective hydrologic properties of soils from observations of vegetation density

A one-dimensional model of the annual water balance is reviewed. Improvements are made in the method of calculating the bare soil component of evaporation, and in the way surface retention is handled. A natural selection hypothesis, which specifies the equilibrium vegetation density for a given, water limited, climate soil system, is verified through comparisons with observed data. Comparison of CDF's of annual basin yield derived using these soil properties with observed CDF's provides verification of the soil-selection procedure. This method of parameterization of the land surface is useful with global circulation models, enabling them to account for both the nonlinearity in the relationship between soil moisture flux and soil moisture concentration, and the variability of soil properties from place to place over the Earth's surface.

Tellers, T. E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Lattice Boltzmann Method for Predicting Porous Transport Layer Performance During Electrolysis

Electrolysis, the splitting of water into oxygen and hydrogen using electricity, is a sustainable way to produce green hydrogen for energy storage. In polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolysis, water is brought into contact with charged catalyst layers and electrochemically separated into oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen product formed at the cathode is carried through the catalyst layer for eventual collection, while the oxygen by-product formed at the anode is removed from the surface via a multiphase interaction with circulating water and a solid porous transport layer (PTL). The design of this PTL aids in the detachment and advection of the oxygen by-product and thereby plays a role in the overall efficacy of the catalyst. In this presentation, we present our initial results modeling this multiphase system using a single-component, multiphase lattice Boltzmann method. We use the Shan-Chen model describing inter-particle forces to capture both the cohesion of the water (liquid) and oxygen (gas) phases and their interaction with the PTL (solid) (Shan and Chen, 1993). We use a Carnahan-Starling equation of state to model the effective density governing these inter-particle interactions which allows us to model this relatively high density ratio system (Carnahan and Starling, 1969). With these simulations, we show that the geometry and heterogeneity of the PTL geometry plays a large role in its ability to move oxygen away from the catalyst layer and the resulting bubble structures that are formed within the PTL. The current work demonstrates these effects using synthesized PTL geometries and 2D physics, which will be extended to experimentally-imaged PTL sections and 3D algorithms in the near future.

Boltzmann↗

DOE OSTI2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation–Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO 2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO 2 . The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mechanism of Torrential Rain Associated with the Mei-yu Development during SCSMEX-98

A case of torrential precipitation process in the Mei-yu front, an Asian monsoon system east to the Tibetan Plateau, is studied with the coupled Penn State University/NCAR MM5 and NASA/GSFC PLACE (Parameterization for Land - Atmosphere - Cloud Exchange) models. Remote and local impacts of water vapor on the location and intensity of Mei-yu precipitation are studied by numerical experiments. Results demonstrate that the water vapor source for this heavy precipitation case in Yangtze river basin is derived mostly from the Bay of Bengal, transported by the southwesterly low-level Jet (LLJ) southeast to the Tibetan Plateau. The moist convection is a critical process in the development and maintenance of the front. The meridional and zonal secondary circulations resulted from Mei-yu condensation heating both act to increase the wind speed in the LLJ. The condensation induced local circulation strengthens the moisture transport in the LLJ, providing a positive feedback to sustain the Mei-yu precipitation system. It is found that local precipitation recycling shifts heavy rain toward the warm side of the Mei-yu front. This shift of rainfall location is due to the pronounced increase of atmospheric moisture and decrease of surface temperature over the warm side of the front.

Qian, Jian-Hua↗

DOE OSTI2021

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Fluvial valleys in the heavily cratered terrains of Mars: Evidence for paleoclimatic change?

Whether the formation of the Martian valley networks provides unequivocal evidence for drastically different climatic conditions remains debatable. Recent theoretical climate modeling precludes the existence of a temperate climate early in Mars' geological history. An alternative hypothesis suggests that Mars had a globally higher heat flow early in its geological history, bringing water tables to within 350 m of the surface. While a globally higher heat flow would initiate ground water circulation at depth, the valley networks probably required water tables to be even closer to the surface. Additionally, it was previously reported that the clustered distribution of the valley networks within terrain types, particularly in the heavily cratered highlands, suggests regional hydrological processes were important. The case for localized hydrothermal systems is summarized and estimates of both erosion volumes and of the implied water volumes for several Martian valley systems are presented.

Gulick, V. C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Plasma Methane Pyrolysis for Spacecraft Oxygen Loop Closure

Life support is a critical function of any crewed space vehicle or habitat. Human life support systems on the International Space Station (ISS) include a number of atmosphere revitalization (AR) technologies to provide breathable air and a comfortable living environment to the crew. The Trace Contaminant Control System removes harmful volatile organic compounds and other trace contaminants from the circulating air. The Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) removes metabolic carbon dioxide (CO2) and returns air to the cabin. Humidity is kept at comfortable levels by a number of condensing heat exchangers. The Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) electrolyzes water to produce oxygen for the crew and hydrogen (H2) as a byproduct. A Sabatier reaction-based CO2 Reduction Assembly (CRA) was launched to the ISS in 2009 and became fully operational in June 2011.The CRA interfaces with both the OGA and CDRA. Carbon dioxide from the CDRA is compressed and stored in tanks until hydrogen is available from OGA water electrolysis. When the OGA is operational and there is CO2 available, the CRA is activated and produces methane and water via the Sabatier reaction shown in Equation 1... One approach to achieve these higher recovery rates builds upon the ISS AR architecture and includes adding a methane post-processor to recover H2 from CRA methane. NASA has been developing the Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) to fill the role of a methane post-processor.

Greenwood, Z. W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A System Concept for the Advanced Post-TRMM Rainfall Profiling Radars

Atmospheric latent heating field is fundamental to all modes of atmospheric circulation and upper mixed layer circulations of the ocean. The key to understanding the atmospheric heating process is understanding how and where precipitation occurs. The principal atmospheric processes which link precipitation to atmospheric circulation include: (1) convective mass fluxes in the form of updrafts and downdrafts; (2) microphysical. nucleation and growth of hydrometeors; and (3) latent heating through dynamical controls on the gravitation-driven vertical mass flux of precipitation. It is well-known that surface and near-surface rainfall are two of the key forcing functions on a number of geophysical parameters at the surface-air interface. Over ocean, rainfall variation contributes to the redistribution of water salinity, sea surface temperature, fresh water supply, and marine biology and eco-system. Over land, rainfall plays a significant role in rainforest ecology and chemistry, land hydrology and surface runoff. Precipitation has also been closely linked to a number of atmospheric anomalies and natural hazards that occur at various time scales, including hurricanes, cyclones, tropical depressions, flash floods, droughts, and most noticeable of all, the El Ninos. From this point of view, the significance of global atmospheric precipitation has gone far beyond the science arena - it has a far-reaching impact on human's socio-economic well-being and sustenance. These and many other science applications require the knowledge of, in a global basis, the vertical rain structures, including vertical motion, rain intensity, differentiation of the precipitating hydrometeors' phase state, and the classification of mesoscale physical structure of the rain systems. The only direct means to obtain such information is the use of a spaceborne profiling radar. It is important to mention that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) have made a great stride forward towards this ultimate goal. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite is the first ever spaceborne radar dedicated to three-dimensional, global precipitation measurements over the tropics and the subtropics, as well as the detailed synopsis of a wide range of tropical rain storm systems. In only twelve months since launch, the PR, together with other science instruments abroad the satellite have already provided unprecedented insights into the rainfall systems. It is anticipated the a lot more exciting and important rain observations would be made by TRMM throughout its mission duration. While TRMM has provided invaluable data to the user community, it is only the first step towards advancing our knowledge on rain processes and its contributions to climate variability. It is envisioned that a TRMM follow-on mission is needed in such a way to capitalize on the pioneering information provided by TRMM, and its instrument capability must be extended beyond TRMM in such a way to fully address the key science questions from microphysical to climatic time scale. In fact, a number of new and innovative mission concepts have recently put forth for this purpose. Almost all of these new concepts have suggested the utility of a more advanced, high-resolution, Doppler-enabled, vertical profiling radar that can provide multi-parameter observations of precipitation. In this paper, a system concept for a second- gene ration precipitation radar (PR-2) which addresses the above requirements will be described.

Im, Eastwood↗