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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Optimization of a Free-Electron Laser

The Linac Coherent Light Source X-ray free-electron laser is a complex scienti c apparatus which changes con gurations multiple times per day, necessitating fast tuning strategies to reduce setup time for successive experiments. To this end, we employ a Bayesian approach to maximizing X- ray laser pulse energy by controlling groups of quadrupole magnets. A Gaussian process model provides probabilistic predictions for the machine response with respect to control parameters, enabling a balance of exploration and exploitation in the search for the global optimum. We show that the model parameters can be learned from archived scans, and correlations between devices can be extracted from the beam transport. Furthermore, the result is a sample-e cient optimization routine, combining both historical data and knowledge of accelerator physics to signi cantly outperform existing optimizers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Astrophysical Equation-of-State Constraints on the Color-Superconducting Gap

We demonstrate that astrophysical constraints on the dense-matter equation of state place an upper bound on the color-superconducting gap in dense matter above the transition from nuclear matter to quark matter. Pairing effects in the color-flavor locked quark matter phase increase the pressure at high density, and if this effect is sufficiently large then the requirements of causality and mechanical stability make it impossible to reach such a pressure in a way that is consistent with what is known at lower densities. The intermediate-density equation of state is inferred by considering extensions of chiral effective field theory to neutron star densities, and conditioning these using current astrophysical observations of neutron star radius, maximum mass, and tidal deformability (PSR J⁢0348+0432, PSR J1624-2230, PSR J⁢0740+6620, GW170817). At baryon number chemical potential μ = 2.6 GeV we find a 95% upper limit on the color-flavor locked pairing gap Δ of 457 MeV using overly conservative assumptions and 216 MeV with more reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, this constraint may be strengthened by future astrophysical measurements as well as by future advances in high-density QCD calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning emulators for nuclear two-body scattering in momentum space

In this work we extend the active learning emulators for two-body scattering in coordinate space with error estimation, recently developed by Maldonado et al. [Phys. Rev. C 112, 024002], to coupled-channel scattering in momentum space. Our full-order model (FOM) solver is based on the Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation for the scattering t-matrix as opposed to the radial Schrödinger equation. We use (Petrov-)Galerkin projections and high-fidelity calculations at a few snapshots across the parameter space of the interaction to construct efficient reduced-order models (ROMs), trained by a greedy algorithm for locally optimal snapshot selection. Both the FOM solver and the corresponding ROMs are implemented efficiently in Python using Google's JAX library. We present results for emulating scattering phase shifts in coupled and uncoupled channels and cross sections, and assess the accuracy of the developed ROMs and their computational speedup factors. We also develop emulator error estimation for both the t-matrix and the total cross section. The software framework for reproducing and extending our results is publicly available. Together with our recent advances in developing active-learning emulators for three-body scattering, these emulator frameworks set the stage for full Bayesian calibrations of chiral nuclear interactions and optical models against scattering data with quantified emulator errors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass of 101 Sn and Bayesian extrapolations to the proton drip line

The favorable energy configurations of nuclei at magic numbers of 𝑁 neutrons and 𝑍 protons are fundamental for understanding the evolution of nuclear structure. The 𝑍 = 50 (tin) isotopic chain is a frontier for such studies, with particular interest at and around the doubly magic 100 Sn isotope, for which the mass is a topic of debate. Precise mass values for neutron-deficient isotopes provide necessary anchor points for mass models to test extrapolations near the proton drip line, where experimental studies remain out of reach. In this work, we report a Penning trap mass measurement of 101 Sn . The determined mass excess of −59889.89⁢(96) keV for 101 Sn represents a factor-of-300 improvement over the current precision and indicates that 101 Sn is less bound than previously thought. Mass predictions from a recently developed Bayesian model combination framework employing statistical machine learning and nuclear masses computed within seven global models based on nuclear density functional theory agree within 1⁢𝜎 with experimental masses from the 48 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 52 isotopic chains. The framework's resilience to new mass data gave confidence in the extrapolation of tin masses down to 𝑁 = 46. Our calculations suggest that 96 Sn is a two-proton drip line nucleus and predict a mass excess of −58090⁢(800) keV for 100 Sn , showing a preference within 1⁢𝜎 for the mass of 100 Sn derived from the 𝛽-delayed 𝑄 value measured at GSI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coexistent quantum channel characterization using quantum process tomography with spectrally resolved detection

The coexistence of classical and quantum signals over the same optical fiber is critical for quantum networks operating within the existing communications infrastructure. Here, we characterize the quantum channel that results from distributing approximate single-photon polarization-encoded qubits simultaneously with classical light of varying intensities through a 25 km fiber-optic channel. We use spectrally resolved quantum process tomography with a newly developed Bayesian reconstruction method to estimate the quantum channel from experimental data, both with and without classical noise. Furthermore, we show that the coexistent fiber-based quantum channel has high process fidelity with an ideal depolarizing channel if the noise is dominated by Raman scattering. These results aid future development of quantum repeater designs and quantum error-correcting codes which benefit from realistic channel error models.

Chapman, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part II: Idealized Markov Chain Monte Carlo Experiments

Observationally informed development of a new framework for bulk rain microphysics, the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS; described in Part I of this study), is demonstrated. This scheme’s development is motivated by large uncertainties in cloud and weather simulations associated with approximations and assumptions in existing microphysics schemes. Here, a proof-of-concept study is introduced using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with BOSS to probabilistically estimate microphysical process rates and parameters directly from a set of synthetically generated rain observations. The framework utilized is an idealized steady-state one-dimensional column rainshaft model with specified column-top rain properties and a fixed thermodynamical profile. Different configurations of BOSS—flexibility being a key feature of this approach—are constrained via synthetic observations generated from a traditional three-moment bulk microphysics scheme. The ability to retrieve correct parameter values when the true parameter values are known is illustrated. For cases when there is no set of true parameter values, the accuracy of configurations of BOSS that have different levels of complexity is compared. It is found that addition of the sixth moment as a prognostic variable improves prediction of the third moment (proportional to bulk rain mass) and rain rate. In contrast, increasing process rate formulation complexity by adding more power terms has little benefit—a result that is explained using further-idealized experiments. BOSS rainshaft simulations are shown to well estimate the true process rates from constraint by bulk rain observations, with the further benefit of rigorously quantified uncertainty of these estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Which Combinations of Environmental Conditions and Microphysical Parameter Values Produce a Given Orographic Precipitation Distribution?

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θ sfc ), and the snow fall speed coefficient (A s ). RH, U, and A s exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θ sfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics in vitro

Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role. Ebola virus modelling efforts have primarily focused on in vivo virus kinetics, e.g., in animal models, to aid the development of antivirals and vaccines. But, thus far, these studies have not yielded a detailed specification of the infection cycle, which could provide a foundational description of the virus kinetics and thus a deeper understanding of their clinical manifestation. Here, we obtain a diverse experimental data set of the Ebola virus infection in vitro, and then make use of Bayesian inference methods to fully identify parameters in a mathematical model of the infection. Our results provide insights into the distribution of time an infected cell spends in the eclipse phase (the period between infection and the start of virus production), as well as the rate at which infectious virions lose infectivity. We suggest how these results can be used in future models to describe co-infection with defective interfering particles, which are an emerging alternative therapeutic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Compressed Natural Gas Component Leak Frequency Estimation

The frequency of unintended releases in a compressed natural gas system is an important aspect of the system quantitative risk assessment. The frequencies for possible release scenarios, along with engineering models, are utilized to quantify the risks for compressed natural gas facilities. This report documents component leakage frequencies representative of compressed natural gas components that were estimated as a function of the normalized leak size. A Bayesian statistical method was used which results in leak frequency distributions for each component which represent variation and uncertainty in the leak frequency. The analysis shows that there is high uncertainty in the estimated leak frequencies due to sparsity in compressed natural gas data. These leak frequencies may still be useful in compressed natural gas system risk assessments, as long as this high uncertainty is acknowledged and considered appropriately.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sparse Data Machine Learning Integration with Theory, Experiment and Uncertainty Quantification: Process-Structure-Property-Performance of Friction Deformation Processing

Computer vision and deep learning tools that advance the ability to establish processing-structure-property-performance (PSPP) relations are presented. The Bayesian binning method for image segmentation enables quantitative analysis of microstructural features in an automated way, while the analysis of shapes and relative orientation of these features reveals local deformation maps indicative of both, material flow and residual stresses due to materials processing. The deep learning method leads to the previous knowledge agnostic mapping of empirically observed microstructural zones in friction stir welding (FSW) process and synthetic microstructure generation capability that is statistically equivalent to experimentally collected data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

LPG Component Leak Frequency Estimation

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is used in heating, cooking, and as a vehicle fuel (called autogas). A safety risk assessment may be needed to assess potential hazard scenarios and inform the regulations, codes, and standards that apply to LPG facilities, such as autogas refueling facilities. The frequency of unintended releases in an LPG system is an important aspect of a system quantitative risk assessment. This report documents estimation of leakage frequencies for individual components of LPG systems. These frequencies are described using uncertainty distributions obtained with Bayesian statistical methods, generic data, and LPG data which were publicly available. There was a lack of LPG data in the literature, so frequencies for most components were developed with generic data and should be used cautiously; without additional information about component leak frequencies in LPG systems, it is not known whether these generic frequencies may be conservative or non-conservative.

02 PETROLEUM↗