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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Discussion of “Bayesian design of experiments for industrial and scientific applications via gaussian processes”

First, we would like to commend Dr. Woods on his thought-provoking paper and insightful presentation at the 4th Annual Stu Hunter conference. We think that the material presented highlights some important needs in the area of design of experiments for generalized linear models (GLMs). In addition, we agree with Dr. Woods that design of experiements of GLMs does implicitly require expert judgement about model parameters, and hence using a Bayesian approach to capture this knowledge is a natural strategy to summarize what is known with the opportunity to incorporate associated uncertainty about that information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Charting the evolution of the ages and metallicities of massive galaxies since z = 0.7

Detailed studies of the stellar populations of intermediate-redshift galaxies can shed light onto the processes responsible for the growth of the massive galaxy population in the last 8 billion years. We here take a step toward this goal by means of deep, multiobject rest-frame optical spectroscopy, performed with the Inamori Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph on the Magellan telescope, of a sample of ∼70 galaxies in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South survey with redshift 0.65 ≤ z ≤ 0.75, apparent R > 22.7 mag{sub Vega}, and stellar mass >10{sup 10} M {sub ☉}. We measure velocity dispersion and stellar absorption features for individual sources. We interpret them by means of a large Monte Carlo library of star formation histories, following the Bayesian approach adopted for previous low redshift studies, and derive constraints on the stellar mass, mean stellar age, and stellar metallicity of these galaxies. We characterize for the first time the relations between stellar age and stellar mass and between stellar metallicity and stellar mass at z ∼ 0.7 for the galaxy population as a whole and for quiescent and star-forming galaxies separately. These relations of increasing age and metallicity with galaxy mass for the galaxy population as a whole have a similar shape as the z ∼ 0.1 analog derived for Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies but are shifted by –0.28 dex in age and by –0.13 dex in metallicity, at odds with simple passive evolution. Considering z = 0.7 quiescent galaxies alone, we find that no additional star formation and chemical enrichment are required for them to evolve into the present-day quiescent population. However, other observations require the quiescent population to grow from z = 0.7 to the present day. This growth could be supplied by the quenching of a fraction of z = 0.7 M {sub *} > 10{sup 11} M {sub ☉} star-forming galaxies with metallicities already comparable to those of quiescent galaxies, thus leading to the observed increase of the scatter in age without affecting the metallicity distribution. However, rapid quenching of the entire population of massive star-forming galaxies at z = 0.7 would be inconsistent with the age- and metallicity-mass relations for the population as a whole and with the metallicity distribution of star-forming galaxies only, which are, on average, 0.12 dex less metal rich than their local counterparts. This indicates chemical enrichment until the present in at least a fraction of the z = 0.7 star-forming galaxies in our sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Determining X-ray source intensity and confidence bounds in crowded fields

We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high-energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability density function for the expected source intensity for various cases of interest, including the important cases in which both source and background apertures contain contributions from the source, and when multiple source apertures partially overlap. A Bayesian approach offers the advantages of allowing one to (1) include explicit prior information on source intensities, (2) propagate posterior distributions as priors for future observations, and (3) use Poisson likelihoods, making the treatment valid in the low-counts regime. Elements of this approach have been implemented in the Chandra Source Catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of detachment on Magnum-PSI ELM-like pulses: direct observations and qualitative results

Abstract Conditions similar to those at the end of the divertor leg in a tokamak were replicated in the linear plasma machine Magnum-PSI. The neutral pressure in the target chamber is then increased to cause the target to transition from an attached to a detached state. Superimposed to this steady state regime, edge localised mode (ELM)-like pulses are reproduced, resulting in a sudden increase in plasma temperature and density, such that the heat flux increases transiently by half an order of magnitude. Visible light emission, target thermography, and Thomson scattering are used to demonstrate that the higher the neutral pressure the more energy is removed from the ELM-like pulse in the volume. If the neutral pressure is sufficiently high, the ELM-like pulse can be prevented from affecting the target and the plasma energy is fully dissipated in the volume instead (ID 4 in table 1). The visible light images allow the division of the ELM-plasma interaction process of ELM energy dissipation into 3 ‘stages’ ranging from no dissipation to full dissipation (the target plasma is detached). In the second publication related to this study, spectroscopic data is analysed with a Bayesian approach, to acquire insights into the significance of molecular processes in dissipating the plasma energy and particles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probability of committed warming exceeding 1.5 ∘ C and 2.0 ∘ C Paris targets

Abstract The feasibility of achieving the Paris 1.5 ∘ C target continues to be a complex and hotly debated question. To help resolve this question we calculate probability distributions of the committed warming that would ensue if all anthropogenic emissions were stopped immediately, or at successive future times. We use a simple Earth system model together with a Bayesian approach that incorporates multiple lines of evidence and accounts for known model biases. This analysis reveals a wide range of possible outcomes, including no further warming, but also a 15% chance of overshooting the 1.5 ∘ C target, and 1%–2% chance for 2 ∘ C, even if all emissions had stopped in 2020. If emissions merely stabilize in 2020 and stop in 2040, these probabilities increase to 90% and 17%. The uncertainty arises mainly from that of present forcing by aerosols. Rather than there being a fixed date by which emissions must stop, the probability of reaching either target—which is already below 100%—gradually diminishes with delays in eliminating emissions, by 3%–4% per year for 1.5 ∘ C.

Sherwood, Steven C. (ORCID:0000000174208216)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Galaxy zoo builder: Morphological dependence of spiral galaxy pitch angle

ABSTRACT Spiral structure is ubiquitous in the Universe, and the pitch angle of arms in spiral galaxies provide an important observable in efforts to discriminate between different mechanisms of spiral arm formation and evolution. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian approach to galaxy pitch angle determination, using spiral arm data obtained through the Galaxy Builder citizen science project. We present a new approach to deal with the large variations in pitch angle between different arms in a single galaxy, which obtains full posterior distributions on parameters. We make use of our pitch angles to examine previously reported links between bulge and bar strength and pitch angle, finding no correlation in our data (with a caveat that we use observational proxies for both bulge size and bar strength which differ from other work). We test a recent model for spiral arm winding, which predicts uniformity of the cotangent of pitch angle between some unknown upper and lower limits, finding our observations are consistent with this model of transient and recurrent spiral pitch angle as long as the pitch angle at which most winding spirals dissipate or disappear is larger than 10°.

Lingard, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2021

SDSS-IV MaStar: theoretical atmospheric parameters for the MaNGA stellar library

ABSTRACT We calculate the fundamental stellar parameters effective temperature, surface gravity, and iron abundance – Teff, log g, [Fe/H] – for the final release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) Stellar Library (MaStar), containing 59 266 per-visit-spectra for 24 290 unique stars at intermediate resolution (R ∼ 1800) and high S/N (median = 96). We fit theoretical spectra from model atmospheres by both MARCS and BOSZ-ATLAS9 to the observed MaStar spectra, using the full spectral fitting code pPXF. We further employ a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to map the parameter space and obtain uncertainties. Originally in this paper, we cross match MaStar observations with Gaia photometry, which enable us to set reliable priors and identify outliers according to stellar evolution. In parallel to the parameter determination, we calculate corresponding stellar population models to test the reliability of the parameters for each stellar evolutionary phase. We further assess our procedure by determining parameters for standard stars such as the Sun and Vega and by comparing our parameters with those determined in the literature from high-resolution spectroscopy (APOGEE and SEGUE) and from lower resolution matching template (LAMOST). The comparisons, considering the different methodologies and S/N of the literature surveys, are favourable in all cases. Our final parameter catalogue for MaStar cover the following ranges: 2592 ≤ Teff ≤ 32 983 K; −0.7 ≤ log g ≤ 5.4 dex; −2.9 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ 1.0 dex and will be available with the last SDSS-IV Data Release, in 2021 December.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

KaRMMa – kappa reconstruction for mass mapping

ABSTRACT We present KaRMMa, a novel method for performing mass map reconstruction from weak-lensing surveys. We employ a fully Bayesian approach with a physically motivated lognormal prior to sample from the posterior distribution of convergence maps. We test KaRMMa on a suite of dark matter N-body simulations with simulated DES Y1-like shear observations. We show that KaRMMa outperforms the basic Kaiser–Squires mass map reconstruction in two key ways: (1) our best map point estimate has lower residuals compared to Kaiser–Squires; and (2) unlike the Kaiser–Squires reconstruction, the posterior distribution of KaRMMa maps is nearly unbiased in all summary statistics we considered, namely: one-point and two-point functions, and peak/void counts. In particular, KaRMMa successfully captures the non-Gaussian nature of the distribution of κ values in the simulated maps. We further demonstrate that the KaRMMa posteriors correctly characterize the uncertainty in all summary statistics we considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new step forward in realistic cluster lens mass modelling: analysis of Hubble Frontier Field Cluster Abell S1063 from joint lensing, X-ray, and galaxy kinematics data

We present a new method to simultaneously and self-consistently model the mass distribution of galaxy clusters that combines constraints from strong lensing features, X-ray emission, and galaxy kinematics measurements. We are able to successfully decompose clusters into their collisionless and collisional mass components thanks to the X-ray surface brightness, as well as use the dynamics of cluster members, to obtain more accurate masses exploiting the fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies. Knowledge from all observables is included through a consistent Bayesian approach in the likelihood or in physically motivated priors. We apply this method to the galaxy cluster Abell S1063 and produce a mass model that we publicly release with this paper. The resulting mass distribution presents different ellipticities for the intra-cluster gas and the other large-scale mass components as well as deviation from elliptical symmetry in the main halo. We assess the ability of our method to recover the masses of the different elements of the cluster using a mock cluster based on a simplified version of our Abell S1063 model. Thanks to the wealth of mutliwavelength information provided by the mass model and the detected X-ray emission, we also found evidence for an ongoing merger event with gas sloshing from a smaller infalling structure into the main cluster. In agreement with previous findings, the total mass, gas profile, and gas mass fraction are all consistent with small deviations from the hydrostatic equilibrium. This new mass model for Abell S1063 is publicly available, as the lenstool extension used to construct it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

High-resolution structure of viruses from random diffraction snapshots

The advent of the X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) has made it possible to record diffraction snapshots of biological entities injected into the X-ray beam before the onset of radiation damage. Algorithmic means must then be used to determine the snapshot orientations and thence the threedimensional structure of the object. Existing Bayesian approaches are limited in reconstruction resolution typically to 1/10 of the object diameter, with the computational expense increasing as the eighth power of the ratio of diameter to resolution.We present an approach capable of exploiting object symmetries to recover three-dimensional structure to high resolution, and thus reconstruct the structure of the satellite tobacco necrosis virus to atomic level. Our approach offers the highest reconstruction resolution for XFEL snapshots to date and provides a potentially powerful alternative route for analysis of data from crystalline and nano-crystalline objects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Almost medium-free measurement of the Hoyle state direct-decay component with a TPC

The structure of the Hoyle state, a highly α -clustered state at 7.65 MeV in 12 C, has long been the subject of debate. Understanding if the system comprises of three weakly interacting α particles in the 0s orbital, known as an α-condensate state, is possible by studying the decay branches of the Hoyle state. The direct decay of the Hoyle state into three α particles, rather than through the 8 Be ground state, can be identified by studying the energy partition of the three α particles arising from the decay. This paper provides details on the breakup mechanism of the Hoyle stating using a new experimental technique. Method: By using β-delayed charged-particle spectroscopy of 12 N using the Texas active target time-projection chamber, a high-sensitivity measurement of the direct 3α decay ratio can be performed without contributions from pileup events. A Bayesian approach to understanding the contribution of the direct components via a likelihood function shows that the direct component is <0.043% at the 95% confidence level. This value is in agreement with several other studies, and, here, we can demonstrate that a small nonsequential component with a decay fraction of about 10 –4 is most likely. Here, the measurement of the non-sequential component of the Hoyle state decay is performed in an almost medium-free reaction for the first time. The derived upper limit is in agreement with previous studies and demonstrates sensitivity to the absolute branching ratio. Further experimental studies would need to be combined with robust microscopic theoretical understanding of the decay dynamics to provide additional insight into the idea of the Hoyle state as an α condensate.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of simulated neutrino emission models with data on Supernova 1987A

Here we compare models of supernova (SN) neutrino emission with the Kamiokande II data on SN 1987A using the Bayesian approach. These models are taken from simulations and are representative of current one-dimensional SN models. We find that models with a brief accretion phase of neutrino emission are the most favored. This result is not affected by varying the overall flux normalization or considering neutrino oscillations. We also check the compatibility of the best-fit models with the data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supergravity black holes, Love numbers, and harmonic coordinates

A problem which has now come to a head in general relativity, primarily as a result of the many recent detections of gravitational waves from the coalescence of compact binaries, is that there are very few viable theories against which to “test” it. To perform realistic tests of theories of gravity, we need to be able to look beyond general relativity and evaluate the consistency of a parametrized, physically acceptable, family of black hole metric alternatives with observational data from, especially, gravitational wave detections using, for example, an agnostic Bayesian approach. In this paper we further examine properties of one class of such metrics, which in fact arise as solutions of ungauged supergravity. In particular, we examine the massless, neutral, minimally coupled scalar wave equation in a general stationary, axisymmetric background metric such as that of a charged rotating black hole, when the scalar field is either time independent or in the low-frequency, near-zone limit, with a view to calculating the Love numbers of tidal perturbations, and of obtaining harmonic coordinates for the background metric. For a four-parameter family of charged asymptotically flat rotating black hole solutions of ungauged supergravity theory known as STU black holes, which includes Kaluza-Klein black holes and the Kerr-Sen black hole as special cases, we find that all time-independent solutions, and hence the harmonic coordinates of the metrics, are identical to those of the Kerr solution. In the low-frequency limit we find the scalar fields exhibit the same SL(2,R) symmetry as holds in the case of the Kerr solution. We point out extensions of our results to a wider class of metrics, which includes solutions of Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic Bayesian evaluation of resonance parameters in 19 Ne for the 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions

Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the nuclear structure properties of 19 Ne using a novel and rigorous Bayesian statistical framework. Precise characterization of 19 Ne resonance parameters is critical for accurately determining reaction rates of the astrophysically significant 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions, which govern breakout from the hot CNO cycle in x-ray bursts and influence 𝛾-ray emission in novae, respectively. By reconstructing likelihood functions from published experimental data—including asymmetric uncertainties and upper or lower limits—we derive posterior distributions for resonance energies, decay widths, and branching ratios. Our Bayesian approach systematically incorporates previously reported discrepancies among measurements, providing a statistically robust and consistent treatment of these uncertainties. The evaluated resonance parameters and associated uncertainties provide crucial input for stellar nucleosynthesis modeling, contributing to a refined understanding of explosive astrophysical phenomena.

Kim, Sohyun H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Republi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Sigma Point Processes-Assisted Chance-Constrained Power System Transient Stability Preventive Control

Here this paper proposes a deep sigma point processes (DSPP)-assisted chance-constrained power system transient stability preventive control method to deal with uncertain renewable energy and loads-induced stability risk. The traditional transient stability-constrained preventive control is reformulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem. To deal with the computational bottleneck of the time-domain simulation-based probabilistic transient stability assessment, the DSPP is developed. DSPP is a parametric Bayesian approach that allows us to predict system transient stability with high computational efficiency while accurately quantifying the confidence intervals of the predictions that can be used to inform system instability risk. To this end, with a given preset confidence probability, we embed DSPP into the primal dual interior point method to help solve the chance-constrained preventive control problem, where the corresponding Jacobian and Hessian matrices are derived. Comparison results with other existing methods show that the proposed method can significantly speed up preventive control while maintaining high accuracy and convergence

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗