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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-P-45: An Analytical Formula for Deriving Mechanical Iso-Center of Rotational Gantry Treatment Unit Rotational Gantry Treatment Unit

Purpose: To present an analytical formula for deriving mechanical isocenter (MIC) of a rotational gantry treatment unit. The input data to the formula is obtained by a custom-made device. The formula has been implemented and used in an operational proton therapy facility since 2005. Methods: The custom made device consisted of 3 mutually perpendicular dial indicators and 5 clinometers, to obtain displacement data and gantry angle data simultaneously. During measurement, a steel sphere was affixed to the patient couch, and the device was attached to the snout rotating with the gantry. The displacement data and angle data were obtained simultaneously at angular increments of less than 1 degree. The analytical formula took the displacement and angle as input and derived the positions of dial indicator tips (DIT) position in room-fixed coordinate system. The formula derivation presupposes trigonometry and 3-dimentional coordinate transformations. Due to the symmetry properties of the defining equations, the DIT position can be solved for analytically without using mathematical approximations. We define the mean of all points in the DIT trajectory as the MIC. The formula was implemented in computer code, which has been employed during acceptance test, commissioning, as well as routine QA practice in an operational proton facility since 2005. Results: It took one minute for the custom-made device to acquire the measurement data for a full gantry rotation. The DIT trajectory and MIS are instantaneously available after the measurement. The MIC Result agrees well with vendor’s Result, which came from a different measurement setup, as well as different data analysis algorithm. Conclusion: An analytical formula for deriving mechanical isocenter was developed and validated. The formula is considered to be absolutely accurate mathematically. Be analyzing measured data of radial displacements as function of gantry angle, the formula calculates the MI position in room coordinate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Technical Note: On the analytical proton dose evaluation in compounds and mixtures

Purpose: By combining the physical processes occurring due to the interaction of protons with matter, analytical theories published so far have provided acceptable models for calculating depth-dose distributions in homogeneous media. As a well-defined and comprehensive theory, the formula derived by Bortfeld models the dose transferred to the target in terms of the parabolic cylinder function. The model also includes three parameters with values specified for an initial proton energy and for the target material. These parameters are obtainable through the data gathered in nuclear data tables. The analytical studies using this interesting model are therefore restricted to those materials for which the data have been provided in these tables. This study aims to find general solutions for calculation of these parameters for a compound or mixture composed of an arbitrary choice of constituent elements. Methods: Inspired by formulas dedicated for calculating the range and the probability of undergoing nonelastic nuclear interactions for protons in desired compounds, the analytical methods for finding the three mentioned parameters are investigated. The accuracy of the methods suggested is examined through comparison of the results with those which are calculated using the data taken from nuclear data tables. By employing the calculated parameters using the derived formulas in the Bortfeld model, the dose distribution at depth in a chosen target is calculated. Results: For an arbitrary selection of compounds, the predictions of the analytical depth-dose model using these parameters have been found to closely match the results employing the parameters calculated using the data reported in nuclear data tables. Conclusions: The formulas presented are general, mathematically easy to handle, and valid for almost every compound or mixture including materials of interest for proton radiotherapy purposes, making the Bortfeld model more practical and advantageous.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

First-Order Individual Gas Sensors as Next Generation Reliable Analytical Instruments

It is conventionally expected that the performance of existing gas sensors may degrade in the field compared to laboratory conditions because (i) a sensor may lose its accuracy in the presence of chemical interferences and (ii) variations of ambient conditions over time may induce sensor-response fluctuations (i.e., drift). Breaking this status quo in poor sensor performance requires understanding the origins of design principles of existing sensors and bringing new principles to sensor designs. Existing gas sensors are single-output (e.g., resistance, electrical current, light intensity, etc.) sensors, also known as zero-order sensors (Karl Booksh and Bruce R. Kowalski, Analytical Chemistry, DOI: 10.1021/ac00087a718). Any zero-order sensor is undesirably affected by variable chemical background and sensor drift that cannot be distinguished from the response to an analyte. To address these limitations, we are developing multivariable gas sensors with independent responses, which are first-order analytical instruments. Here, we demonstrate self-correction against drift in two types of first-order gas sensors that operate in different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Our radiofrequency sensors utilize dielectric excitation of semiconducting metal oxide materials on the shoulder of their dielectric relaxation peak and achieve self-correction of the baseline drift by operation at several frequencies. Our photonic sensors utilize nanostructured sensing materials inspired by Morpho butterflies and achieve self-correction of the baseline drift by operation at several wavelengths. These principles of self-correction for drift effects in first-order sensors open opportunities for diverse emerging monitoring applications that cannot afford frequent periodic maintenance that is typical of traditional analytical instruments.

Potyrailo, Radislav A.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Characterizing the Relationship between Steady State and Response Using Analytical Expressions for the Steady States of Mass Action Models

The steady states of cells affect their response to perturbation. Indeed, diagnostic markers for predicting the response to therapeutic perturbation are often based on steady state measurements. In spite of this, no method exists to systematically characterize the relationship between steady state and response. Mathematical models are established tools for studying cellular responses, but characterizing their relationship to the steady state requires that it have a parametric, or analytical, expression. For some models, this expression can be derived by the King-Altman method. However, King-Altman requires that no substrate act as an enzyme, and is therefore not applicable to most models of signal transduction. For this reason we developed py-substitution, a simple but general method for deriving analytical expressions for the steady states of mass action models. Where the King-Altman method is applicable, we show that py-substitution yields an equivalent expression, and at comparable efficiency. We use py-substitution to study the relationship between steady state and sensitivity to the anti-cancer drug candidate, dulanermin (recombinant human TRAIL). First, we use py-substitution to derive an analytical expression for the steady state of a published model of TRAIL-induced apoptosis. Next, we show that the amount of TRAIL required for cell death is sensitive to the steady state concentrations of procaspase 8 and its negative regulator, Bar, but not the other procaspase molecules. This suggests that activation of caspase 8 is a critical point in the death decision process. Finally, we show that changes in the threshold at which TRAIL results in cell death is not always equivalent to changes in the time of death, as is commonly assumed. Our work demonstrates that an analytical expression is a powerful tool for identifying steady state determinants of the cellular response to perturbation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Analytical Performance Characteristics of the Cepheid GeneXpert Ebola Assay for the Detection of Ebola Virus

The recently developed Xpert® Ebola Assay is a novel nucleic acid amplification test for simplified detection of Ebola virus (EBOV) in whole blood and buccal swab samples. The assay targets sequences in two EBOV genes, lowering the risk for new variants to escape detection in the test. The objective of this report is to present analytical characteristics of the Xpert® Ebola Assay on whole blood samples. Our study evaluated the assay’s analytical sensitivity, analytical specificity, inclusivity and exclusivity performance in whole blood specimens. EBOV RNA, inactivated EBOV, and infectious EBOV were used as targets. The dynamic range of the assay, the inactivation of virus, and specimen stability were also evaluated. The lower limit of detection (LoD) for the assay using inactivated virus was estimated to be 73 copies/mL (95% CI: 51–97 copies/mL). The LoD for infectious virus was estimated to be 1 plaque-forming unit/mL, and for RNA to be 232 copies/mL (95% CI 163–302 copies/mL). The assay correctly identified five different Ebola viruses, Yambuku-Mayinga, Makona-C07, Yambuku-Ecran, Gabon-Ilembe, and Kikwit-956210, and correctly excluded all non-EBOV isolates tested. The conditions used by Xpert® Ebola for inactivation of infectious virus reduced EBOV titer by ≥6 logs. In conclusion, we found the Xpert® Ebola Assay to have high analytical sensitivity and specificity for the detection of EBOV in whole blood. It offers ease of use, fast turnaround time, and remote monitoring. The test has an efficient viral inactivation protocol, fulfills inclusivity and exclusivity criteria, and has specimen stability characteristics consistent with the need for decentralized testing. The simplicity of the assay should enable testing in a wide variety of laboratory settings, including remote laboratories that are not capable of performing highly complex nucleic acid amplification tests, and during outbreaks where time to detection is critical.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson’s Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations

Background A unique archive of Big Data on Parkinson’s Disease is collected, managed and disseminated by the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The integration of such complex and heterogeneous Big Data from multiple sources offers unparalleled opportunities to study the early stages of prevalent neurodegenerative processes, track their progression and quickly identify the efficacies of alternative treatments. Many previous human and animal studies have examined the relationship of Parkinson’s disease (PD) risk to trauma, genetics, environment, co-morbidities, or life style. The defining characteristics of Big Data–large size, incongruency, incompleteness, complexity, multiplicity of scales, and heterogeneity of information-generating sources–all pose challenges to the classical techniques for data management, processing, visualization and interpretation. We propose, implement, test and validate complementary model-based and model-free approaches for PD classification and prediction. To explore PD risk using Big Data methodology, we jointly processed complex PPMI imaging, genetics, clinical and demographic data. Methods and Findings Collective representation of the multi-source data facilitates the aggregation and harmonization of complex data elements. This enables joint modeling of the complete data, leading to the development of Big Data analytics, predictive synthesis, and statistical validation. Using heterogeneous PPMI data, we developed a comprehensive protocol for end-to-end data characterization, manipulation, processing, cleaning, analysis and validation. Specifically, we (i) introduce methods for rebalancing imbalanced cohorts, (ii) utilize a wide spectrum of classification methods to generate consistent and powerful phenotypic predictions, and (iii) generate reproducible machine-learning based classification that enables the reporting of model parameters and diagnostic forecasting based on new data. We evaluated several complementary model-based predictive approaches, which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson’s disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation). Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scores), demographic (e.g., age), genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12), and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index) data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting. Conclusions Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines) can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis). We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson’s disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer’s, Huntington’s, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2016

The MCNP6 Analytic Criticality Benchmark Suite

Analytical benchmarks provide an invaluable tool for verifying computer codes used to simulate neutron transport. Several collections of analytical benchmark problems [1-4] are used routinely in the verification of production Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP® [5,6]. Verification of a computer code is a necessary prerequisite to the more complex validation process. The verification process confirms that a code performs its intended functions correctly. The validation process involves determining the absolute accuracy of code results vs. nature. In typical validations, results are computed for a set of benchmark experiments using a particular methodology (code, cross-section data with uncertainties, and modeling) and compared to the measured results from the set of benchmark experiments. The validation process determines bias, bias uncertainty, and possibly additional margins. Verification is generally performed by the code developers, while validation is generally performed by code users for a particular application space. The VERIFICATION_KEFF suite of criticality problems [1,2] was originally a set of 75 criticality problems found in the literature for which exact analytical solutions are available. Even though the spatial and energy detail is necessarily limited in analytical benchmarks, typically to a few regions or energy groups, the exact solutions obtained can be used to verify that the basic algorithms, mathematics, and methods used in complex production codes perform correctly. The present work has focused on revisiting this benchmark suite. A thorough review of the problems resulted in discarding some of them as not suitable for MCNP benchmarking. For the remaining problems, many of them were reformulated to permit execution in either multigroup mode or in the normal continuous-energy mode for MCNP. Execution of the benchmarks in continuous-energy mode provides a significant advance to MCNP verification methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Streaming Visual Analytics Workshop Report

How can we best enable users to understand complex emerging events and make appropriate assessments from streaming data? This was the central question addressed at a three-day workshop on streaming visual analytics. This workshop was organized by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for a government sponsor. It brought together forty researchers and subject matter experts from government, industry, and academia. This report summarizes the outcomes from that workshop. It describes elements of the vision for a streaming visual analytic environment and set of important research directions needed to achieve this vision. Streaming data analysis is in many ways the analysis and understanding of change. However, current visual analytics systems usually focus on static data collections, meaning that dynamically changing conditions are not appropriately addressed. The envisioned mixed-initiative streaming visual analytics environment creates a collaboration between the analyst and the system to support the analysis process. It raises the level of discourse from low-level data records to higher-level concepts. The system supports the analyst’s rapid orientation and reorientation as situations change. It provides an environment to support the analyst’s critical thinking. It infers tasks and interests based on the analyst’s interactions. The system works as both an assistant and a devil’s advocate, finding relevant data and alerts as well as considering alternative hypotheses. Finally, the system supports sharing of findings with others. Making such an environment a reality requires research in several areas. The workshop discussions focused on four broad areas: support for critical thinking, visual representation of change, mixed-initiative analysis, and the use of narratives for analysis and communication.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Analytical Solutions of Transient Drift-Diffusion in P-N Junction Pixel Sensors

Radiation detection in applications ranging from high energy physics to medical imaging rely on solid state detectors, often hybrid pixel detectors with (1) reverse biased p-n junction pixel sensors and (2) readout ASICs, attached by flip chip-bonding. Transient signals characteristics are important in, e.g., matching ASIC and sensor design, modeling and optimizing detector parameters and describing timing and charge sharing properties. Currently analytical forms of transient signals are available for only a few limited cases (e.g., drift or diffusion) or for the steady state (which is not relevant for high energy radiation detection). Tools are available for (relatively slow) numerical evaluation of the transient charge transport. We present here the first analytical solutions of partial differential equations de scribing drift-diffusion-recombination charge transport in planar p-n junction sensors in a variety of conditions: (1) undepleted, (2) fully depleted, (3) taking into account the gradual velocity saturation, and (4) overdepleted. We deduce the Green’s functions which can be applied to any detection problem through simple convolution with the initial conditions. We compare the analytical solutions with Monte Carlo simulations and industry standard simulations (Synopsys Sentaurus), demonstrating good agreement. Using the analytical equations enables fast modeling of the influence of various detector parameters on tracking, imaging and timing performance, describing performance and enabling optimizations for different applications. Finally, we illustrate this model with applications in 3D+T (x,y,z,time) photon tracking and 4D+T (x,y,θ,φ,time) relativistic charged particle tracking.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2013

Comparison of Analytical Calculations for NSLS-II Booster Bulk Shielding with FLUKA Monte-Carlo Program

The dose rate calculations (normal operational beam loss) for the NSLS II 3.0 GeV booster ring bulk shielding like lateral wall and roof have been carried out by FLUKA. The FLUKA Monte Carlo results were compared with the prior analytical results based on thick target approximation [1]. The results showed that for most cases the analytical calculations are conservative compared with FLUKA for photon dose estimations. However the neutron dose from analytical calculations is lower than FLUKA for some cases because additional photon-neutron interactions in the shielding material are ignored in analytical calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

(U) Analytic One-Group S 2 Slab Problem with Isotropic Scattering and Fission Applied to Neutron Multiplicity Sensitivity

A one-group isotropic S 2 transport problem in a homogeneous slab is solved analytically and used to derive an analytic expression for the Feynman Y for this special case. Analytic derivatives of the Feynman Y are then taken with respect to an arbitrary input parameter. The analytic solution is used to verify the results of the new Feynman Y sensitivity capability that Alex Clark (NC State/XCP-3) has integrated into the neutron sensitivity code SENSMG. SENSMG’s Feynman Y capability relies on the multigroup discrete-ordinates code PARTISN and the methodology developed by Mattingly to compute the Feynman Y deterministically, and the Feynman Y sensitivity capability relies on work by O’Brien et al., extended by Clark.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Synthesis of Year Two Outcomes in the Smart Energy Analytics Campaign

Buildings are full of hidden energy savings potential that can be uncovered with the right analysis. With sophisticated software to inform and assist in building operations, building owners now are reducing energy and improving operations using building data analytics. The cornerstone of successful building data analytics is the ability to extract accurate and actionable insights from large amounts of data. Modern building automation systems (BAS) monitor hundreds of points per building, and an owner may have a portfolio generating many thousands of data points. The BAS can provide alarms for points out of range, but the analytical capabilities fall well short of helping achieve an optimized system. Further, common analysis tools for energy meter data tend to manage the monthly bills but do not support hourly interval data. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are software that provide the needed analytical horsepower to building owners as they work to find meaning from data. This section highlights the benefits and challenges in using EMIS for continuous energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Visualization and Analytics of Distribution Systems with Deep Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (VADER)

In its current state, the distribution system is incapable of handling small to moderate amounts of photovoltaic (PV) penetration. This is because it was initially designed for handling passive loads which, at the level of a substation, have low variability and are forecastable with high accuracy. It has been an open loop system with little monitoring and control. With the addition of PV energy sources, the overall scenario will change dramatically due to (1) two way power flow on network; and (2) high aggregate variability. Additionally, changes on the consumption side lead to a number of smart loads, Electric Vehicles (EVs), and Demand Response. These fundamental changes in the characteristics of the generation and consumption of power will lead to a number of practical engineering problems which must be overcome to allow increased penetration of Distributed PV. Solving the unique engineering challenges which arise at moderate levels of PV penetration requires closed loop integration of data from (1) PV sources; (2) customer load data from smart meters; (3) EV charging data; and (4) local and line mounted precision instruments. These data are not traditionally used by utilities in operations since they are ”non-SCADA” and the current grid does not require such levels of control. To integrate this data and provide real time intelligence from these non-SCADA data, we created the Visualization and Analytics of Distribution Systems with Deep Penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (VADER) platform. VADER is a collection of analytics enabled by integration of massive and heterogeneous data streams for granular real-time monitoring, visualization and control of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) in distribution networks. VADER analytics enable utilities to have greater visibility into distributed energy resources. We built several batch- and stream-analytics in VADER which help operators better understand the impact of distributed energy resources on the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data Analytics for Electrical Distribution Systems with Micro PMUs (GMLC 1.4.9 Technical Report)

This report describes how electrical utilities with residential, industrial, commercial and government customers make decisions using Data Analytics (DA) applications and discusses how OpenFMB was leveraged to share that data among disparate types of devices for DA. OpenFMB is a data standard developed by utilities for distributed communication and control of power system assets. Here we explored how OpenFMB can be used for sharing analytics and what those analytics could be for a set of representative grid devices. A review of DA applications performed by electrical utilities and customers is presented. An overview of how the testbed we used was built and configured is summarized. Several experiments which were carried out to explore the capabilities of OpenFMB alongside other data sharing mechanisms for gathering sensor measurements and sharing analytics is also discussed. And finally a comparison of OpenFMB and LBNL’s SPARK framework is summarized. Today’s electrical utilities focus on monitoring the real-time customer consumptions, offering new real-time tariff models based on customer usage habits (rewards and punishments), providing energy peak during peak load times (plan energy generation and distribution), improving the load management for transformers and power lines, and controlling the energy and grid resources efficiently. On the other hand, the DA applications for residential customers are based on modifying the customer electricity usage habit to save money, making accurate and timely decisions for electrical billing. However, the DA applications for industrial, commercial and government customers focus on creating efficient programs to improve the environmental condition (reducing CO₂ emission), developing better load forecasting for industrial and/or commercial activities. In this project, a testbed was built to explore how the OpenFMB framework can be used to distribute data among various types of representative grid edge devices. Micro PMUs (Phasor Measurement Unit) were used to collect and transmit data to an OpenPDC server alongside relays with a framework configured with a system using OpenFMB to collect and transmit data. The testbed was composed of a physical asset based on a 60 Hz AC radial power system constructed using SI-GRID components. The power system consisted of a 3-phase 14 volts line-to-ground (24 volts line-to-line) power source, three 3-phase line emulators, a programmable resistive load bank, two smart relays, two micro PMUs, and a (SCADA) and Phasor Data Concentrator (PDC) computer. This testbed configuration allowed us to perform breaker operation tests collecting data from the micro PMUs and from the relays’ sensors. During the micro PMU breaker operation tests we collected the measured and estimated fundamental voltages, currents, frequency as well as the total true, reactive and apparent power. The displacement power factor from two micro PMUs located in parallel power lines was also used. The software steps for the implementation of the Synchrophasor system are explained in detail in this report. The setting (1-2-3) and data collection (4-5) phases were performed with a free download open source software. In the setting phase, the micro PMUs were set (1), the data stream for each micro PMU was validated, and the connection and configuration files were created (2). The PDC computer was set using the connection and configuration files of the micro PMUs (3). In the data collection phase, the binary data from the micro PMUs was collected (4), and the binary data files of the micro PMUs was converted to analyze the test results (5). OpenFMB was configured to use protocol translators to read Modbus and transform the reading into the OpenFMB data model to be read for DA applications.Our experiments showed that by leveraging the OpenFMB data model and the micro PMUs together we could obtain better situational awareness of network faults, which in some cases could lead to failures in the system and would be less perceivable otherwise. For example, in one experiment the fundamental RMS current angle, and the fundamental displacement power factor (estimated by the ratio between the measured real and apparent total power) had a disturbance at the micro PMU connected to the beginning of the parallel power line because the breaker was opened without the operators or SCADA system’s knowledge, and no current was available. Based on the breaker state scenarios and micro PMU locations, the DA applications using the current angle and displacement power factor from the micro PMUs should be studied in detail to avoid a non-desired measurement that could affect the decision from the DA. Also, the sample rates for PMU, Relay and micro PMU devices were compared. The DA application improved the control and operation between the electrical utilities and their customers (residential, industrial, transportation, commercial and government). The higher the sample rate, the better the quality of the measurement for DA estimations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results analysis methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) con firm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exempli fied through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗